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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #252,241
  • Sep 10, 2010 7:53am Sep 10, 2010 7:53am
Quoting GlobalMacro
What makes you think that I am kidding?

And why should I open something up to see myself when you are the one trying to prove a point?

Very well then I'm wrong.
  • #252,242
  • Sep 10, 2010 7:56am Sep 10, 2010 7:56am
Quoting bimmerbob
!

Most moves on currency pairs is just range filling on just about any time frame. Think of it this way, "Major London FX Bank, MLFB" collects overnight orders worth 500 mill in sterling, on the open they place the orders on the market adding a few hundred for good measure, I mean why not MFLB pretty much knows the size of its own book and the effect it has on the price, it rides the price up to whatever the market can take and starts taking some of their speculative side of the trade of as profit, MFLB then waits for the next "hot potato" to get passed around and joins the ride again. It is up to us to visualise where the orders and stops are so we can be sure to ride the waves in the correct direction.

MFLB has no intention to have a unilateral direction on a day's trading unless there is news driving it for a continued rally once the overnight's orders are filled.

This is a very simple illustration of how banks like MLFB go about their business but it shows the basics workings of the market, retail trades just add noise.
  • #252,243
  • Sep 10, 2010 7:56am Sep 10, 2010 7:56am
Quoting trending
Very well then I'm wrong.
It's not about being right or wrong...

Mathematically MA-construction is a laggard...

But if you have found something interesting and you're willing to share I'd be happy to learn about it...there is nothing wrong about that now, is it?
Hear the music before the song is over ...
  • #252,244
  • Edited 8:12am Sep 10, 2010 7:59am | Edited 8:12am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 100910_gu_h1.PNG Size: 46 KB


Firstly my entry was terrible as it should have been just below the supply zone and my SL above the supply zone, but that was due to lack of patience, my biggest weakness that I am battling with, although I am getting better.

I have already cashed in my 1st runner to make this a free trade. The TPs are just above the demand zone marked out below the text.

We obviously can turn at either zones, but knowing that NY is trying to make a higher high or in this case I hope a lower low, the 1st target should be attainable and I will cash in at my second target and call it a week.

If we range for the next couple of years in this area I will be a very happy man to keep taking the rides up and down... lol

P.S. Zones were tightened up on m15 and ignore the trendline.. lol
  • #252,245
  • Sep 10, 2010 8:00am Sep 10, 2010 8:00am
Quoting GlobalMacro
It's not about being right or wrong...

Mathematically MA-construction is a laggard...

But if you have found something interesting and you're willing to share I'd be happy to learn about it...there is nothing wrong about that now, is it?

I totally agree with you, but as a visual representation of price in a crude kind of way it can be used as a secondary tool to give you a "quick" glance at the noise, that's how I use it at least the fast one, they give me a quick glance to see how the last few candles are moving, whether they are going up or down and whether that TF's average direction is of interest to me, if it isn't just wait till the MA catches up and take it accordingly.

Now there are plenty of MA traders out there that use crosses and touches quite succesfully, I am not one of them.
  • #252,246
  • Sep 10, 2010 8:01am Sep 10, 2010 8:01am
Quoting geeWcee
Hi Cloggie, first post here but a very long time lurker! Your times have confused me, as I'm obviously still a newb. All the time charts I have found on the net have shown London open at 0800GMT and US open at 1300GMT. I'm in the UK so currently the time is 13:30 DST, (12:30 GMT).
So are all the charts I've seen got the opening times wrong? It should be 07:00GMT/08:00DST? Head explodes!
Whilst I make my first post just want to say thanks to you and also peeps like 4xStar who keep this thread one of the best on the net.
Cheers!
Thanks Pipgrabber answered my post via PM, I cant send a thanks via PM back yet as a junior member. Seems Cloggies times are correct, no wonder I could never tie up the 'franky fakes and london breaks' to my charts, now I look back an extra hour it becomes obvious. DOH!
  • #252,247
  • Sep 10, 2010 8:01am Sep 10, 2010 8:01am
Well Mr noob here completely missed that 60 pip fall. Did anyone sell the break of the DP? Was there a good short opportunity I missed?

I see stocks and oil are still holding up so perhaps there's no case for shorts yet? Mind you, dollar index and uCAD look pretty darn bullish.

What now - bounce off London opening range bottom?
  • #252,248
  • Sep 10, 2010 8:03am Sep 10, 2010 8:03am
Quoting Sutts
Well Mr noob here completely missed that 60 pip fall. Did anyone sell the break of the DP? Was there a good short opportunity I missed?

I see stocks and oil are still holding up do perhaps there's no case for shorts yet? Mind you, dollar index and uCAD look pretty darn bullish.

What now - bounce off London opening range bottom?

I posted the range hours ago and caught most of it on both Fibre and Cable, am flat now to see where the NY open is going to take us, one day's section at a time. Just waiting to see what the next batch of volume coming into the market is going to give us.

Find a little range and see if NY wants to set the low or just wants to fill the range. All depends on their order book.
  • #252,249
  • Sep 10, 2010 8:04am Sep 10, 2010 8:04am
Quoting bbakker
Attachment

Firstly my entry was terrible as it should have been just below the supply zone and my SL above the supply zone, but that was due to lack of patience, my biggest weakness that I am battling with, although I am getting better.

I have already cashed in my 1st runner to make this a free trade. The TPs are just above the demand zone marked out below the text.

We obviously can turn at either zones, but knowing that NY is trying to make a higher high or in this case I hope a lower low, the 1st target should be attainable...
There is also a speedbump around 1.5342-49, so my 2nd target might not be reached.
  • #252,250
  • Sep 10, 2010 8:05am Sep 10, 2010 8:05am
Quoting cloggie
It is funny though how we are branded as dictators just for outing the spammers. Can't really win on this thread now can you?
Funny peculiar i call it. Hes tried it in before i seem to remember.As for people who call out scammers they are winners every time in my book. My 2 cents
All systems of divination, like music itself,work through patterns.
  • #252,251
  • Sep 10, 2010 8:10am Sep 10, 2010 8:10am
Quoting GlobalMacro
It's not about being right or wrong...

Mathematically MA-construction is a laggard...

But if you have found something interesting and you're willing to share I'd be happy to learn about it...there is nothing wrong about that now, is it?
Yes, I agree it is lagging. I'm just trying to explain what egkid meant when he said ma do not lag at higher tf.

Say I trade in 1H tf, the ema value of a previous 4H bar will not change, that is a technical fact, at least on mt4 charts. I'm suggesting that data is useful that's all. It is not even an opinion.
  • #252,252
  • Sep 10, 2010 8:10am Sep 10, 2010 8:10am
Quoting GlobalMacro
It's not about being right or wrong...

Mathematically MA-construction is a laggard...

But if you have found something interesting and you're willing to share I'd be happy to learn about it...there is nothing wrong about that now, is it?
Hello GM,

yesterday you were searching for a site with bond/yields info.
Maybe this one helps a bit. A guy from EU thread posted it.
Itīs not optimal, but for free.

http://markets.ft.com/markets/bonds.asp
  • #252,253
  • Sep 10, 2010 8:11am Sep 10, 2010 8:11am
Quoting cloggie
I posted the range hours ago and caught most of it on both Fibre and Cable, am flat now to see where the NY open is going to take us, one day's section at a time. Just waiting to see what the next batch of volume coming into the market is going to give us.

Find a little range and see if NY wants to set the low or just wants to fill the range. All depends on their order book.

I was watching the range you described cloggie, just not clear how I should have played it. Should I have seen the failure to push through the top of the range and sold on weakness around the weekly pivot and down through the daily pivot to the bottom of the london opening range? Would that have been a valid trade?

Personally, I was waiting for DP to break and then I was planning on getting short on a retest but it looks like that was wrong.

I'm also trying to take the big picture into account. Stocks and oil holding up but dollar very bullish....very confused which side of the fence I should be.

When you say "caught most of it" I think you mean you bought the bounce off the DP back up to the LO top around 1.5457. Is that correct? I guess you didn't sell the top or the break below the DP?

Help please!
  • #252,254
  • Sep 10, 2010 8:12am Sep 10, 2010 8:12am
Quoting cloggie
Most moves on currency pairs is just range filling on just about any time frame. Think of it this way, "Major London FX Bank, MLFB" collects overnight orders worth 500 mill in sterling, on the open they place the orders on the market adding a few hundred for good measure, I mean why not MFLB pretty much knows the size of its own book and the effect it has on the price, it rides the price up to whatever the market can take and starts taking some of their speculative side of the trade of as profit, MFLB then waits for the next "hot potato" to...
I appears US retail traders will be trading 50:1 leverage starting on Oct 18th, any comments or thoughts on this?
  • #252,255
  • Sep 10, 2010 8:15am Sep 10, 2010 8:15am
Quoting Sutts
I was watching the range you described cloggie, just not clear how I should have played it. Should I have seen the failure to push through the top of the range and sold on weakness around the weekly pivot and down through the daily pivot to the bottom of the london opening range? Would that have been a valid trade?

Personally, I was waiting for DP to break and then I was planning on getting short on a retest but it looks like that was wrong.

Help please!

This now comes down to personal preferences and your ability to read the price, there were several signals you could have used, the flat top on the 5 at 1105 GMT, the bearish engulfing on the 15 at 1115 GMT, the break of the low on the bullish engulfing on the 15 at 1200 GMT, the actual break of the DP on the 5, the multiple dojis with demand bars on the M1. There were plenty of signals all over, just a matter of identifying them and believing in them.
  • #252,256
  • Sep 10, 2010 8:17am Sep 10, 2010 8:17am
Quoting disegnosys
I appears US retail traders will be trading 50:1 leverage starting on Oct 18th, any comments or thoughts on this?

Leverage is a two edged sword, on my position trades I don't even touch 50:1, on my intraday "play account" I use 200:1, on my daily position trades I use 10:1, it all varies. I really don't have a comment on what the CFTC is doing either way, I just feel that governments should stay out of our business, but then again regulation is always geared towards the lowest common denominator.

Leverage is a personal choice, one that is often overlooked and ignored by retailers and ends up becoming a gambling issue.
  • #252,257
  • Sep 10, 2010 8:18am Sep 10, 2010 8:18am
Quoting cloggie
I posted the range hours ago and caught most of it on both Fibre and Cable, am flat now to see where the NY open is going to take us, one day's section at a time. Just waiting to see what the next batch of volume coming into the market is going to give us.

Find a little range and see if NY wants to set the low or just wants to fill the range. All depends on their order book.
My instinct is that it will make a new lower low due to the longer-term (now trickling) downtrend (d1 and h4) and how LO moved price up so quickly.... but I could be wrong! I don't know where the orders are.

We might even need to kiss the 200ma on all the tfs upto h1 (we did h4 this morning!) before we go down further...
  • #252,258
  • Sep 10, 2010 8:19am Sep 10, 2010 8:19am
Quoting dag777
Hello GM,

yesterday you were searching for a site with bond/yields info.
Maybe this one helps a bit. A guy from EU thread posted it.
Itīs not optimal, but for free.

http://markets.ft.com/markets/bonds.asp
thanks dag...now it would be great if those were live quotes...
Hear the music before the song is over ...
  • #252,259
  • Sep 10, 2010 8:20am Sep 10, 2010 8:20am
Quoting Sutts

When you say "caught most of it" I think you mean you bought the bounce off the DP back up to the LO top around 1.5457. Is that correct? I guess you didn't sell the top or the break below the DP?

Help please!

I sold the top, am not going to ignore range filling in the London session, that was my second trade of the day in Cable, am now waiting to see where the NY break is going to take us for my 3rd trade.

That is a big issue with most retailers: lack of patience. I can happily sit behind my screens not taking a trade for hours and just pass the time BS-ing here, lots of "newer" traders want to be in a trade all the time for fear of missing out, I just look for the higher probability ones and try to ignore the noise.
  • #252,260
  • Sep 10, 2010 8:23am Sep 10, 2010 8:23am
Quoting cloggie
Leverage is a two edged sword, on my position trades I don't even touch 50:1, on my intraday "play account" I use 200:1, on my daily position trades I use 10:1, it all varies. I really don't have a comment on what the CFTC is doing either way, I just feel that governments should stay out of our business, but then again regulation is always geared towards the lowest common denominator.

Leverage is a personal choice, one that is often overlooked and ignored by retailers and ends up becoming a gambling issue.

Thanks for your comment.
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