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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #252,221
  • Sep 10, 2010 6:49am Sep 10, 2010 6:49am
Quoting Sutts
Thank you. I've learnt so much from reading your posts too...they're pure gold.

None of them are a magic bullets, it is all common sense really. And that sums up my trading, just keep looking at the bigger picture and stop using Indy's, they give you tunnel vision and keep you on the wrong side of the market.

Cable does not live in a vacuum, quite the contrary and that's why it can be so profitable to trade.
  • #252,222
  • Sep 10, 2010 6:57am Sep 10, 2010 6:57am
Quoting zigizum
Yes, agreed...like I said before...Also I agree with you now.
Still, let us not forget, that we are here to make our own opinion and analysis and that those action of javajames will not be tolerated in the future. I believe that traders wont post those kind of statements anymore...we must go from here on..

Voice of reasoning...

GU third hour in 20 pips corridor...
Is that you javajames? Like to use "..."
  • #252,223
  • Sep 10, 2010 6:58am Sep 10, 2010 6:58am
Quoting cloggie
UJ is purely yield driven as a carry trade, 2.75 has been an area I have posted for a few weeks now, BOJ cannot unilaterally do anything about the rising Yen and they have admitted as much, you need to keep an eye on the yield curve and until the TL breaks just keep selling the rallies, that's where the big boys money is going.

UJ is probably the easiest and clearest correlated trade of the majors.

Also keep an eye on EJ as a break of UJ TL will see serious money flowing into EJ as the carry trade.

Yahoo is a good source of yield, put in ^TNX...

Excuse the noob ramblings but my understanding is that the yen carry trade feeds on:

1. Very low borrowing rates for Yen
2. A source of secure higher returns like T-Bonds
3. A rising dollar

At the moment we have only item 1 in our favour.

Am I correct in assuming it will take a good initial rise in T-Bond yields to kick start the yen carry trade again - item 2 (I guess this is your 2.75-2.85). Once it begins the dollar should start to rise due to the selling of yen and buying of dollars to fund T-Bond purchases. After that the carry can continue on lower yields due to the appreciation of the dollar (item 3).

Thanks
  • #252,224
  • Sep 10, 2010 7:01am Sep 10, 2010 7:01am
Quoting Sutts
Excuse the noob ramblings but my understanding is that the yen carry trade feeds on:

1. Very low borrowing rates for Yen
2. A source of secure higher returns like T-Bonds
3. A rising dollar

At the moment we have only item 1 in our favour.

Am I correct in assuming it will take a good initial rise in T-Bond yields to kick start the yen carry trade again - item 2 (I guess this is your 2.75-2.85)....
Here are 3 good articles, no point me rehashing and quoting them:

http://www.insidefutures.com/article...Abound%20.html
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...d=aaI0MlomfFe4
http://www.moneyweek.com/investments...rry-trade.aspx
  • #252,225
  • Sep 10, 2010 7:04am Sep 10, 2010 7:04am
Quoting cloggie
Here are 3 good articles, no point me rehashing and quoting them:

http://www.insidefutures.com/article...Abound%20.html
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...d=aaI0MlomfFe4
http://www.moneyweek.com/investments...rry-trade.aspx
Brilliant, thanks.
  • #252,226
  • Sep 10, 2010 7:07am Sep 10, 2010 7:07am
Quoting nAVIN2007
brother they are always laggin..cause they work on averages..so candles need to be printed first b4 they show..i suppose u can play the touches but thats not trading with discipline more just taking chances

cross over system are definately laggin..but hey! if it works then its an edge..keep doing what works..but i rather understand market price movements..

im becoming stronger and stronger every week..hopefully it will continue
good luck all
You hit it spot on bro with the rationale...you need price to have occurred in order to calculate the average...this is the nature of the beast and it IS lagging...
Notwithstanding that they are very tempting creatures...at times deceptive but tempting...
Hear the music before the song is over ...
  • #252,227
  • Sep 10, 2010 7:18am Sep 10, 2010 7:18am
Quoting GlobalMacro
You hit it spot on bro with the rationale...you need price to have occurred in order to calculate the average...this is the nature of the beast and it IS lagging...
Notwithstanding that they are very tempting creatures...at times deceptive but tempting...
Depends on how you use it. For example, if you trade in 5min or 15 min tf base on a previous 1H 20ema, the previous hour 20ema will not lag.
  • #252,228
  • Sep 10, 2010 7:21am Sep 10, 2010 7:21am
Quoting trending
Depends on how you use it. For example, if you trade in 5min or 15 min tf base on a previous 1H 20ema, the previous hour 20ema will not lag.
I'm afraid I don't follow your thinking but you made me curious...care to elaborate?
Hear the music before the song is over ...
  • #252,229
  • Sep 10, 2010 7:27am Sep 10, 2010 7:27am
Quoting GlobalMacro
I'm afraid I don't follow your thinking but you made me curious...care to elaborate?
yup bro..some folks just dont wanna except it..
but a good tool to highlight the support/resistance..used with confluence factors could make a descent system
  • #252,230
  • Sep 10, 2010 7:31am Sep 10, 2010 7:31am
Quoting cloggie
Your times are both out, Franky (europe) opens at 0600 GMT and London at 0700 GMT. I tend to start my day at around 0600 GMT just to see what Franky is up to.
Hi Cloggie, first post here but a very long time lurker! Your times have confused me, as I'm obviously still a newb. All the time charts I have found on the net have shown London open at 0800GMT and US open at 1300GMT. I'm in the UK so currently the time is 13:30 DST, (12:30 GMT).
So are all the charts I've seen got the opening times wrong? It should be 07:00GMT/08:00DST? Head explodes!
Whilst I make my first post just want to say thanks to you and also peeps like 4xStar who keep this thread one of the best on the net.
Cheers!
  • #252,231
  • Sep 10, 2010 7:33am Sep 10, 2010 7:33am
Quoting cloggie
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...2&d=1283612503


With no bottom in sight on the yields, it could well be. I don't see the BOJ unilaterally doing anything about this. The carry trade of the year.

2.75-2.85 is still the area to watch for those trading uJ, if you don't have a data feed showing yields, put ^tnx (10 yr yields) into yahoo finance and you will get the attached. uJ cannot reverse without yields doing so first.

That's how to use the proper correlation in trading.
^TNX yields breaking the daily trendline...

Attached Image
  • #252,232
  • Sep 10, 2010 7:36am Sep 10, 2010 7:36am
Quoting GlobalMacro
Until she does....I'm shorting ftse @ 5492...
cable starting to move south at long last...

the minute you pay attention to a different lady she stops being you know what...

I always wondered why nature built in this behavior...I am still looking for the answer...
Hear the music before the song is over ...
  • #252,233
  • Sep 10, 2010 7:39am Sep 10, 2010 7:39am
Quoting GlobalMacro
I'm afraid I don't follow your thinking but you made me curious...care to elaborate?
Its painfully obvious actually. What I meant is ma will surely lag at the most immediate tf you are trading. Its usefulness is in data already past, very much like price action, you trade based on previous candlesticks.

A 20 ema for 5-6pm will stay the same from 6.01-7.01pm on the hourly chart. We usually make decisions based on that rather than say an equivalent 80ema on a 15min tf, which will definitely lag.
  • #252,234
  • Sep 10, 2010 7:39am Sep 10, 2010 7:39am
Quoting bbakker
^TNX yields breaking the daily trendline...

Attachment
LOL... Mine is not yields, but price. Still they have an inverse relationship!
  • #252,235
  • Sep 10, 2010 7:44am Sep 10, 2010 7:44am
Quoting bbakker
LOL... Mine is not yields, but price!

Yields and price are inversely correlated anyways, price is lagging a bit. That aside you can clearly see what is happening to UJ, next test is 84.375 and 85 again.
  • #252,236
  • Sep 10, 2010 7:47am Sep 10, 2010 7:47am
Quoting trending
Its painfully obvious actually. What I meant is ma will surely lag at the most immediate tf you are trading. Its usefulness is in data already past, very much like price action, you trade based on previous candlesticks.

A 20 ema for 5-6pm will stay the same from 6.01-7.01pm on the hourly chart. We usually make decisions based on that rather than say an equivalent 80ema on a 15min tf, which will definitely lag.
But obviously painful most of the time...

Care to post an example or two to illustrate your point?
Hear the music before the song is over ...
  • #252,237
  • Sep 10, 2010 7:50am Sep 10, 2010 7:50am
Quoting GlobalMacro
But obviously painful most of the time...

Care to post an example or two to illustrate your point?
You are kidding rite?

Just open up the data window on MT4 and see for yourself?
  • #252,238
  • Sep 10, 2010 7:50am Sep 10, 2010 7:50am
!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Spot FX GBP_USD (10-SEP-10).png Size: 17 KB
  • #252,239
  • Sep 10, 2010 7:51am Sep 10, 2010 7:51am
Quoting cloggie
Statistically a "normal" cable day has a Franky Fake (20-40 pips) a London Break (80-120 pips) an area of consolidation then barring any news or equity sell of a reversal close to the open

Well, that has worked out like textbook then.
  • #252,240
  • Sep 10, 2010 7:52am Sep 10, 2010 7:52am
Quoting trending
You are kidding rite?

Just open up the data window on MT4 and see for yourself?
What makes you think that I am kidding?

And why should I open something up to see myself when you are the one trying to prove a point?
Hear the music before the song is over ...
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