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  • #1,961
  • Sep 3, 2010 7:56am Sep 3, 2010 7:56am
LOL just implemented the volatile move strategy but with 10 pip s/l.
triggered my limit buy order came back took out my stop then shot up 100 pips.
making green pips large and red pips small this is my goal.
  • #1,962
  • Edited 8:14am Sep 3, 2010 8:00am | Edited 8:14am
Quoting Ari Gold
Ok guys...

After stacking longs ferociously based on weekly and daily price action ive had a little win after that NFP move. Basically i established 13 positions accross a few pairs... which is essentially a position size 13x greater than my account balance.

I lost 50 pips establishing those positions.

Im now up about 1200.

Thats for 3 days work, and equated to a (floating) equity increase of 110% rigfht here, right now. Pretty good considering i never had more than 2% of my account exposed.... I just wanted to tell everyone this...
What you gonna do now knowing it was based on news and likely big retrace you taking some profit while leaving you biggest leg on maybe?

Or maybe taking some shorts to hedge ?

want to get a feel for what people gonna do with short term gains or maybe graeme can advice in this senario?


Is it demo or real? I hope its real.
making green pips large and red pips small this is my goal.
  • #1,963
  • Sep 3, 2010 8:01am Sep 3, 2010 8:01am
Well i go in with an amount where i know a 20 pip loss will equal a 2% loss... You would have to be rain man AND trading on oanda to get teh %R exact every time... so it isnt precise ... just an amount i would usually be comfortable with. Only difference is... im trailing tight and adding at every opportunity i percieve.

My insatiable greed actually works to my advantage with this 'style' of interacting with the market. Just participate like a mad-man... keep your risk static, and add ferociously when the market is moving.



Quoting songbo
Hi Ari,

Mind sharing your Money Mgt be it % based or fixed lot for per position ?
"If it bleeds ... we can kill it"
  • #1,964
  • Sep 3, 2010 8:03am Sep 3, 2010 8:03am
[quote=traderray;3997946]
Quoting pipEASY
This is failed breakout

http://img836.imageshack.us/img836/5306/aa1d.png

quote]

Hi Graeme, in your posts you state that if the breakout candle closes above your sell entry or vice versa then you close the trade. Just for clarification if the breakout is on a 4 hour or higher TF candle then I presume the close you are talking about is on the monitoring TF, i.e. one hour or lower? Is that correct. Also if you get a volatile breakout and a 50% retrace on...
traderray,

I had the same question; experimenting with various lower TF entries now.
  • #1,965
  • Sep 3, 2010 8:08am Sep 3, 2010 8:08am
EDIT: of course its real haha... anyone who posts stuff like that for their demo trading should give themselves an uppercut.

The news just LET the market open up and kick ass higher. It just got enough participants in there to take the market to where it needed to go. Of course some news causes bullshit spikes... thats why i dont trade it... but this was a pretty big number (even though NFP is a crapshoot) and the market is holding its ground up here. Ive trailed all my stops and will let it do whatever it wants.

Ive taken enough profit (1 leg) to cover my losses and then some ... and will PRY myself away from the computer. Its damn hard cos im not used to this "letting 'em run" business... typically i would be out of the market with 100 pips or so, and slapping myself on the back for an awesome trade.

It could come crashing back and that would really annoy me. Like... ALOT. But i guess thats part of the strat. Cant have your cake and eat it too...

MM




Quoting paul1
What you gonna do now knowing it was based on news and likely big retrace you taking some profit while leaving you biggest leg on maybe?

Or maybe taking some shorts to hedge ?

want to get a feel for what people gonna do with short term gains or maybe graeme can advice in this senario?


Is it demo or real?
"If it bleeds ... we can kill it"
  • #1,966
  • Sep 3, 2010 8:48am Sep 3, 2010 8:48am
Quoting Ari Gold
EDIT: of course its real haha... anyone who posts stuff like that for their demo trading should give themselves an uppercut.

The news just LET the market open up and kick ass higher. It just got enough participants in there to take the market to where it needed to go. Of course some news causes bullshit spikes... thats why i dont trade it... but this was a pretty big number (even though NFP is a crapshoot) and the market is holding its ground up here. Ive trailed all my stops and will let it do whatever it wants.

Ive taken enough profit (1...
congratulation am happy for you.

The reason I ask about demo Is because graeme suggested we may like to get used to the method on demo till were happy with the ins an outs of this method.

Fair play to you mate get the bull by the horns.
making green pips large and red pips small this is my goal.
  • #1,967
  • Sep 3, 2010 8:58am Sep 3, 2010 8:58am
Yeah, my bad... i just remembered that the 2 week demo thingy was happening. Cheers dude. Epic battle going on inside my head as to whether or not i should just take it and go to bed. Holding is way harder than any other aspect of trading i reckon



Quoting paul1
congratulation am happy for you.

The reason I ask about demo Is because graeme suggested we may like to get used to the method on demo till were happy with the ins an outs of this method.

Fair play to you mate get the bull by the horns.
"If it bleeds ... we can kill it"
  • #1,968
  • Sep 3, 2010 9:17am Sep 3, 2010 9:17am
Wow, full retracement in the yen crosses. Thats annoying.
"If it bleeds ... we can kill it"
  • #1,969
  • Sep 3, 2010 10:09am Sep 3, 2010 10:09am
Quoting Ari Gold
Well i go in with an amount where i know a 20 pip loss will equal a 2% loss... You would have to be rain man AND trading on oanda to get teh %R exact every time... so it isnt precise ... just an amount i would usually be comfortable with. Only difference is... im trailing tight and adding at every opportunity i percieve.

My insatiable greed actually works to my advantage with this 'style' of interacting with the market. Just participate like a mad-man... keep your risk static, and add ferociously when the market is moving.

So, every addition you make will be additional 2% each (for a 20 pips distance)?

Thanks
TS
Haste not to Enter AND Haste not to Exit !-TradeStar
  • #1,970
  • Sep 3, 2010 10:11am Sep 3, 2010 10:11am
Graeme sure knows how to pick pairs.

I've never seriously looked at G/A up until yesterday when Graeme stated his gains. Boy was I missing out. If you just traded that pair the past few months you would have done very well. Looks like it may be approaching a bottom now but who knows.

Spreads are a little high though. Doesn't matter in the bigger picture.
  • #1,971
  • Sep 3, 2010 10:21am Sep 3, 2010 10:21am
I think our intial weekly analysis on eur/jpy. looks even stronger to bullish side,last week bullish reveral candle and this week tried push down again but has ended again in another pin bar. but this weeks pin didnt get as low as last weeks.
So I think there is still hope.

Seems to have been pushing up since mid week.
Might see me stacking longs soon as weekly an daily green.
making green pips large and red pips small this is my goal.
  • #1,972
  • Sep 3, 2010 10:24am Sep 3, 2010 10:24am
Quoting TradeStar
So, every addition you make will be additional 2% each (for a 20 pips distance)?

Thanks
TS
IMHO, 2% is quite high when you are making lots of entries on 5min. You could have serious drawdown quite quickly. I try never go above 0.5%. When you are stacking it is plenty. Perhaps when I build up some long term legs I'll go up to 1%.
  • #1,973
  • Sep 3, 2010 10:57am Sep 3, 2010 10:57am
Yeah you're right pip daddy... but that is worrst case... typically im looking to stop myself out at -10 pips.

It is still high though...

Quoting pip_daddy
IMHO, 2% is quite high when you are making lots of entries on 5min. You could have serious drawdown quite quickly. I try never go above 0.5%. When you are stacking it is plenty. Perhaps when I build up some long term legs I'll go up to 1%.
"If it bleeds ... we can kill it"
  • #1,974
  • Sep 3, 2010 11:19am Sep 3, 2010 11:19am
Hello, I just would like to add to the praise that Graeme has received. Not for doing anything new in the trading world, but for being able to clearly, succinctly and thought provokingly provide an explanation into making money in ALL markets (not just FX).

While ignoring trying to work out setups and triggers (the method), and just focusing on the approach.....
As a suggestion go back and read the original market wizards books (or read them for the first time). (While the chapters about short term traders and market makers can still be relevant, and profitable style of trading - ignore these guys for now)

What you will find is that a lot of the great quotes that come from those interviews are what they are trying to say exactly what Graeme has very nicely put into a good thread. There is nothing new here, its all about mindset, and approach, and bravo for Greame's ability to explain it.

Just as a few examples.....and there are plenty of them

The most important rule of investing is to play great defense, not great offense. Every day I assume every position I have is wrong. Always question yourself and your ability. Don't ever feel that you are very good. The second you do, you are dead. Always maintain your sense of confidence, but keep it in check.
-Paul Tudor Jones

I tend to cut bad trades as soon as possible, forget them, and then move on to new opportunities. The elements of good trading are: (1) cutting losses, (2) cutting losses, and (3) cutting losses. If you follow these three rules, you may have a chance.
-Ed Seykota

If you want to know where a market is going, all you have to do is this. (He threw his charts on the floor and jumped up on his desk.) Look at it, it will tell you!
-Jack Boyd as told by Larry Hite

If you diversify, control your risk, and go with the trend, it just has to work.
-Larry Hite

The biggest mistake I made was having a specific target of what I wanted out of an investment. The target should be determined by market analysis, not by the amount of money you want to make.
-Mark Weinstein

I don’t lose much on trades, because I wait for the exact right moment.
-Mark Weinstein

Your strategy has to be flexible enough to change when the environment changes. The mistake most people make is they keep the same strategy all the time. They say, “Damn, the market didn’t behave the way I thought it would.” Why should it? Life and the markets just don’t work that way.
-Mark Weinstein

I learned that an opinion isn’t worth that much. It is more important to listen to the market.
-Brian Gelber

(ps: I just Googled these, so I hope they are word perfect accurate)
  • #1,975
  • Edited 7:35pm Sep 3, 2010 11:21am | Edited 7:35pm
Quoting Ari Gold
Graeme,

Let me assure you... you are most definitely a 'super trader'. I have never seen a more concrete example of one, and ive been around for a while i spose.

I want to thank you for your effort also. I have been trading a few years, and mostly professionally for a broker. If i had this information back in the beginning... i would be in a VERY different place right now (financially). In hindsight i made this shit really hard on myself (even though i made decent money)

Either way, you have changed the way i look at trading and the...
I share similar opinions Ari but feel I am not there yet to call myself a 'convert' but I am definitely a convert when it comes to 'follow the trend' trading philosophy and Graeme's approach to keep a smooth equity curve by tight SL on lower TF. I gave trend trading a shot few years back and gave up on it after a lot of frustration.

Thanks to Graeme, now I see light at the end of the tunnel but feel atleast weeks away to completely bake this approach in written form of a trading plan, especially when trading in both directions. By trading plan, I don't mean a 'METHOD' or a 'SYSTEM'. I feel, there are still many aspects/holes that we haven't covered in this thread some of which I outlined in my very first post in this thread http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=1455 and I hope Greame could address at an opportune time down this fantastic journey.

p.s. I just tried short term counter hindsight/direction positions after NFP and I 'think' it worked pretty well as intended. Have yet to assess my overall stats for this week on my E/J pair.

Best Regards,

- Vee
Staying in my lane...
  • #1,976
  • Sep 3, 2010 11:22am Sep 3, 2010 11:22am
Quoting andante9
With all due respect. Why go there? This is likely to only encourage more flamming of OP and thread for no good reason. They have had their say, and they are entitled to it. I think it would be best to let others think and behave as they will and press on with your own beliefs. If you invite opposing views, they will most likely surface and only distract from the thead intent even more.

sincerely

Dan
Staying in my lane...
  • #1,977
  • Sep 3, 2010 12:15pm Sep 3, 2010 12:15pm
Here's my situation after 1 week on EURJPY...

As you can see from my picture...At the moment I have only 1 position surviving...the week is closing as another PinBar like..so...double wick rejection..so mi hindsight remains long until the market proves me wrong...

Anyway this is not been a great week...

11 trades

3 breakeven
7 losses with an average of 15.3 pips (total -107 pips)
1 surviving

I have made few trades if compared with others traders here...but it's because I missed some good area to enter because I was sleeping, yesterday I had not the chance to follow the market..and today NFP release stopped me to trade before the news..
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ej_09.gif Size: 11 KB
Market is like a puzzle, YOU have to fit the pieces!!
  • #1,978
  • Sep 3, 2010 12:34pm Sep 3, 2010 12:34pm
Quoting pip_daddy
IMHO, 2% is quite high when you are making lots of entries on 5min. You could have serious drawdown quite quickly. I try never go above 0.5%. When you are stacking it is plenty. Perhaps when I build up some long term legs I'll go up to 1%.
I noticed during NFP up and down spike, my brain became foggy (battle between greed and fear) when I reached over 8 stacked positions. I had all 8 positions in up spike and then when I started stacking short positions. Wondering if anyone experienced this.

2% per trade is quite high for my taste as well. I was thinking more along the lines of 2%-4% per stacking 'episode' to contain risk and over exposure and limit up to 8-10 trades in any direction until I get the hang of this trading style. I must admit, the rush of seeing stacked positions grow in size was pretty darn awesome !!! I too recovered my entire drawdown for the week on E/J and have a nice little realized and floating profit from last sunday.

Best Regards,

- Vee
Staying in my lane...
  • #1,979
  • Sep 3, 2010 1:00pm Sep 3, 2010 1:00pm
Quoting Chris_B
Here's my situation after 1 week on EURJPY...

As you can see from my picture...At the moment I have only 1 position surviving...the week is closing as another PinBar like..so...double wick rejection..so mi hindsight remains long until the market proves me wrong...

Anyway this is not been a great week...

11 trades

3 breakeven
7 losses with an average of 15.3 pips (total -107 pips)
1 surviving

I have made few trades if compared with others traders here...but it's because I missed some good area to enter because I was sleeping, yesterday I had...
If I can just jump in on one thing you said. I hope you do not feel bad because you only made 11 trades (which are more than I made btw). I don't think that is as important as waiting for the right moment on whatever time frame you prefer entering on. If you are sticking to 1H or 4H you are obviously going to get less trades in. If you are on 5min but extremely picky about your entries (like me) then you are going to get fewer trades in. If it was a bad week for trends (like my impression of this week was) then you are going to get less trades in.

Personally I cannot understand how some people are getting 20 or 30 (or more) trades in a week. I just don't see that many good opportunities but I think that is because I am perhaps being more picky. Could be that I am being too picky. I'm still working on figuring that out for myself.
  • #1,980
  • Sep 3, 2010 1:13pm Sep 3, 2010 1:13pm
Quoting pip_daddy
If I can just jump in on one thing you said....
Yea...30 trades seems excessive, but perhaps I am being too picky as well. I look for volatility breakouts of clear spots, not 1-bar breaks. Perhaps I will have to adjust to being more aggressive.
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