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  • #1,941
  • Sep 2, 2010 8:30pm Sep 2, 2010 8:30pm
Quoting pipEASY
Im currently

9 positions; unrealized 2200+ pips

21 breakevens (mostly on 5min)

18 losses; Average 21 pips loss per position, total just over 380+ pips.

Current r:r if I close 1:6. This is not great and I wouldnt even consider it.

The only reason Im currently ahead of the group is not because im a super trader but:

1. Im not in a rush
2. I keep things simpler
3. Hindsight is working to my favour
4. Profit taking is stretched out

I have to admit, I could have been super aggressive and stayed...
Morning Graeme,
Could I please ask a couple of questions.

1, Is there a reason you prefer bodies to wicks for resistance? I know its all relative but i'm interested if there is an advantage to using bodies?
2, What would happen next week if price bounced at a level you did not anticipate i.e. 60% or 20%? What i'm trying to say is do you only trade in specific areas or are you more flexible?

Thank you I am learning so much its untrue!
Regards,
Ben
  • #1,942
  • Sep 2, 2010 8:37pm Sep 2, 2010 8:37pm
Just before I go and start answering private messages;

We are currently practicing on one pre-selected pair.

Once your trading 'habit' per se becomes professional level, you will pre-select 5, 6 pairs and monitor them together and notice that even though the pair of currency is different there is striking similarities with all of them.

When you start trading multiple pairs with the same method you are practicing at the moment, you are spreading your risk thinner whilst increasing your potential profit larger.

When you focus on one pair of currency, you either have one loss or one breakeven or one win.

When you focus on multiple pairs, you have mix of loss, breakeven, win BUT with the r:r encoded in your trading method/habit you will find almost all the time that few pairs that does loss = 1 pair of currency that did win. And you can be versatile/universal and diversify the winning profits from the winning pair of currency to replenish what you lost on the losing pairs of currency and keep the rest of the positions spread around alive on all the other pairs. Hiding and growing.

Voila. You are keeping the principal of diversification same and diversifying multiple pairs of currency. Hence you are now spreading your potential profit/exposure across the whole board of pairs of currency.

Welcome to my world

Sincerely,

Graeme
  • #1,943
  • Sep 2, 2010 8:42pm Sep 2, 2010 8:42pm
Quoting leggo
Morning Graeme,
Could I please ask a couple of questions.

1, Is there a reason you prefer bodies to wicks for resistance? I know its all relative but i'm interested if there is an advantage to using bodies?
2, What would happen next week if price bounced at a level you did not anticipate i.e. 60% or 20%? What i'm trying to say is do you only trade in specific areas or are you more flexible?

Thank you I am learning so much its untrue!
Regards,
Ben
Good morning, Ben

Good question and I will answer it before I go.

Please do not take any offence at my short answer but

Its all relative.

You can do wick/body at any time and still serve the same purpose in the aim of the bigger picture.

True, there is bounce at other areas such as 60%, 20%, even 80% and so on. I do not look at the very price of 33%, 50% however look at the area. If price is destined to bounce at 60% next week, trust me, there will be plenty of price action giving buckets of warnings before the bounce back down.

Now having said that, how do I know if price that is retracing is not the new trend? I cant. I can only participate at low risk entry anticipating growth.

However to be fair to all readers, I will adhere to the rules of the project and will only trade in one direction for now but yes, I would take both buy/sell normally.

I recommend any traders who just started preferably not to be taking both buy/sell, you will undoubtedly burn yourself out before any enlightment.

Sincerely,

Graeme
  • #1,944
  • Sep 2, 2010 10:19pm Sep 2, 2010 10:19pm
Quoting pipEASY
Good morning, Ben

Good question and I will answer it before I go.

Please do not take any offence at my short answer but

Its all relative.

You can do wick/body at any time and still serve the same purpose in the aim of the bigger picture.

True, there is bounce at other areas such as 60%, 20%, even 80% and so on. I do not look at the very price of 33%, 50% however look at the area. If price is destined to bounce at 60% next week, trust me, there will be plenty of price action giving buckets of warnings before the bounce back...
Thanks Graeme,
I wonder if some of the doom mongers who came on here and insinuated that Graeme was a fraud and here for financial gain would come forward and apologise?
Graeme has picked a currency which looked to me as though it was in a range and has shown over the course of this week how he used some of his methods for great profits. No smoke and mirrors. He picked a currency last week and traded it this week.
I have printed Graeme's posts and they are over 500 pages that's a lot of effort for no reward. I sincerely hope some of the above people have a humble enough heart to admit they were wrong.
Regards,
Ben
  • #1,945
  • Sep 2, 2010 11:22pm Sep 2, 2010 11:22pm
Quoting leggo
Thanks Graeme,
I wonder if some of the doom mongers who came on here and insinuated that Graeme was a fraud and here for financial gain would come forward and apologise?
Graeme has picked a currency which looked to me as though it was in a range and has shown over the course of this week how he used some of his methods for great profits. No smoke and mirrors. He picked a currency last week and traded it this week.
I have printed Graeme's posts and they are over 500 pages that's a lot of effort for no reward. I sincerely hope some of the above people...


With all due respect. Why go there? This is likely to only encourage more flamming of OP and thread for no good reason. They have had their say, and they are entitled to it. I think it would be best to let others think and behave as they will and press on with your own beliefs. If you invite opposing views, they will most likely surface and only distract from the thead intent even more.

sincerely

Dan
  • #1,946
  • Sep 2, 2010 11:23pm Sep 2, 2010 11:23pm
Graeme,

Let me assure you... you are most definitely a 'super trader'. I have never seen a more concrete example of one, and ive been around for a while i spose.

I want to thank you for your effort also. I have been trading a few years, and mostly professionally for a broker. If i had this information back in the beginning... i would be in a VERY different place right now (financially). In hindsight i made this shit really hard on myself (even though i made decent money)

Either way, you have changed the way i look at trading and the markets, and i am officially a convert. Pretty huge given ive read pretty much every book and every website out there... not to mention tried every damn trading strategy/idea/concept/moneymangement permutation out there.

Nothing has been more beneficial to my psychology either. You were right when you said "it is a different kind of stress" to the normal ups and downs of scalping/swing trading for a binary win/loss outcome. Ive only been doing this a little while... but it's a night and day difference for me. I find jumping in and out trying to set up freebies (taking small hits) so much easier when at the same time i have a couple of hundred pips in floating profit on the pair.

Thanks again, and hopefully i can shout you a beer one day.

MM


Quoting pipEASY
Im currently

9 positions; unrealized 2200+ pips

21 breakevens (mostly on 5min)

18 losses; Average 21 pips loss per position, total just over 380- pips.

Current r:r if I close 1:6. This is not great and I wouldnt even consider it.

The only reason Im currently ahead of the group is not because im a super trader but:...........


Graeme
"If it bleeds ... we can kill it"
  • #1,947
  • Sep 2, 2010 11:28pm Sep 2, 2010 11:28pm
Quoting pipEASY
Just before I go and start answering private messages;

We are currently practicing on one pre-selected pair.

Once your trading 'habit' per se becomes professional level, you will pre-select 5, 6 pairs and monitor them together and notice that even though the pair of currency is different there is striking similarities with all of them.

[color=purple]When you start trading multiple pairs with the same method you are practicing at the moment, [b][u]you are spreading your...
Hi Graeme,

I picked up this from an Australian Site. Just to express my gratitude.
Hope one day I get to see you in person and greet

Many many Thanks

Regards,
TradeStar
Attached Image
Haste not to Enter AND Haste not to Exit !-TradeStar
  • #1,948
  • Sep 2, 2010 11:33pm Sep 2, 2010 11:33pm
Honestly whoever doubted this methodology is pretty ignorant.

I needed this kind of tutelage in order to bring together a variety of information that I just couldn't put together.

I've been trading FX for 3 years now without mediocre results, terrible results and good results.

This week is by the far the most pips I've ever been able to make. Even last week I saw a lot of pips but most of those positions died out.

I'm not losing more then 10 pips on a trade MAX. Everything is going my way at least for a few candles and I pull out quickly when it doesn't.

If it wasn't for the hard knocks that I took over the past 3 years I wouldn't absorb this wonderful information Graeme is providing.

100 pips ain't gonna make you rich unless you want to bet the house. Who cares if 100 pips evaporates.

I'm finding trades against hindsight are important too because it costs me nothing to test them out and who do you really know the difference between a wick bounce or a breakout from that same area?

You don't so its worth playing whatever the market gives you on the 5min cause it costs little to nothing.

This stuff is just exciting, plain and simple. Just well thought out, organized and elegant.

I really enjoyed your last few posts Graeme.
  • #1,949
  • Sep 3, 2010 12:26am Sep 3, 2010 12:26am
Truly enlightening, highly provoking,

remember that at very beginning you said "entry is not important", and i even asked why so (dumb question now i feel).

yes, i understand now why "entry is not important", since everything does work and doesn't work.

Quoting pipEASY
[color=purple]
When you focus on multiple pairs, you have mix of loss, breakeven, win BUT with the r:r encoded in your trading method/habit you will find almost all the time that few pairs that does loss = 1 pair of currency that did win. And you can be versatile/universal and diversify the winning profits from the winning pair of currency to replenish what you lost on the losing pairs of currency and keep the rest of the positions spread around alive on all the other pairs. Hiding and growing....
  • #1,950
  • Sep 3, 2010 1:03am Sep 3, 2010 1:03am
Quoting leggo
Thanks Graeme,
I wonder if some of the doom mongers who came on here and insinuated that Graeme was a fraud and here for financial gain would come forward and apologise?
Graeme has picked a currency which looked to me as though it was in a range and has shown over the course of this week how he used some of his methods for great profits. No smoke and mirrors. He picked a currency last week and traded it this week.
I have printed Graeme's posts and they are over 500 pages that's a lot of effort for no reward. I sincerely hope some of the above people...
Agreed !!!

I would add that on a personal note, I have read and re-read this thread a number of times and am amazed at the quality of its content !! IMO, The information contained within this thread would put a lot of trading books which are currently being sold to shame....
  • #1,951
  • Edited 1:58am Sep 3, 2010 1:26am | Edited 1:58am
Thank you very much for the compliments.

Apologies if I do not address them directly on the posts anymore. It is not from any ignorance however I wish to somehow keep this thread as condensed as possible for the newer readers.

But, I do deeply acknowledge all compliments and it does make my efforts worthwhile.

I hope I can touch as many traders as possible.

Tomorrow is 1st weekend after 1 week of project. I can already estimate where most of the participants are. I know some have already been unsuccessful in getting their weekly hindsight correct which is just normal part of trading however did they take any measure to reduce their drawdown is the importance.

If your weekly hindsight have been incorrect (but it still too early to tell unless price is going to close extremely far away from your hindsight at the end of this weekly candle) it can always be upskilled by opening any 5min chart and practicing endless amounts of entries. All you need is for the price to go towards your direction by just few candles. Once you hit 8 out of 10, you are just like the swedish roulette gentleman and ready.

Hitting the weekly hindsight correct is just as important as hitting the price action interpretation correct on any lower timeframe. Your interpretation on the weekly/or any lower timeframe must be constant and there must be no bias on the difference of the timeframes.

I will show all readers something important to add this weekend.

Sincerely,

Graeme
  • #1,952
  • Sep 3, 2010 4:18am Sep 3, 2010 4:18am
My weekly hindsight was to go long the eurjpy after a flying buddha pin bar reversal. I do not have many trades like so many others because of my work schedule and the ability to get to a computer. I have only 5 trades two of which were losses for 50 pips (25 each) and 1 leg I took profit from just to build my confidence (against the scheme of things) and I presently have two legs still surviving at BE. This thread has been an eye opening experience for me and I hope that I can be successful with this method of trading. I opened my live trading account in February of this year so I am but an infant in this trading arena. Good luck to all and God bless you Graeme for all the knowledge you have brought to us in this thread.

Thank You,

AB
  • #1,953
  • Sep 3, 2010 4:23am Sep 3, 2010 4:23am
[quote=pipEASY;3997088]This is failed breakout

http://img836.imageshack.us/img836/5306/aa1d.png

quote]

Hi Graeme, in your posts you state that if the breakout candle closes above your sell entry or vice versa then you close the trade. Just for clarification if the breakout is on a 4 hour or higher TF candle then I presume the close you are talking about is on the monitoring TF, i.e. one hour or lower? Is that correct. Also if you get a volatile breakout and a 50% retrace on the major TF candle would you have two positions?
  • #1,954
  • Sep 3, 2010 4:49am Sep 3, 2010 4:49am
Quoting traderray

Hi Graeme, in your posts you state that if the breakout closes above your sell entry or vice versa then you close the trade. Just for clarification if the breakout is on a 4 hour or higher TF candle then I presume the close you are talking about is on the monitoring TF, i.e. one hour or lower? Is that correct. Also if you get a volatile breakout and a 50% retrace on the major TF candle would you have two positions?
Good evening, traderray

Good question.

When a volatile breakout is based on 4hr TF then the close of next 4hr candle is taken into account.

Usually a good volatile breakout will not hit your sell stop and then retrace 50% fib of the previous 4hr candle. However sometimes they do and yes whilst my breakout position is still in play I will zoom into lower timeframe to trade a different setup. I will have as many low-risk entries as the market allows me to.

Feel free to pm me to work closer, traderray

Sincerely,

Graeme
  • #1,955
  • Sep 3, 2010 4:53am Sep 3, 2010 4:53am
Hello everyone,
Had a few hiccups with new platform and broker.
Been trying few different entry tecniques.

Gonna try on eur/jpy
Entry with 10 pip stop
at 20 pips in profit set to break even plus 5.
And focus on refining my entries.

Stick to this and see what happens using graemes volatile break out method shown in the most recent posts.

Any comments or suggestions welcome thankyou.
making green pips large and red pips small this is my goal.
  • #1,956
  • Edited 6:11am Sep 3, 2010 5:21am | Edited 6:11am
Guys,

Don't concern yourself with taking lots of trades - it just isn't necessary. The way things have worked out for me this week was a short bias for EUR/CHF. It has been the right call but I have zero trades, yep, the big donut. When looking at it in review, there is really only 2 trade areas I would have wanted to be active but they happened outside of my market availability and I don't chase them if I miss it. The rest was stacking entries but not where I would place an initial entry. If I don't get the initial entry, then I don't play the stacking entries - that's my own rule.

It's no big deal though, this will happen unless I am attached to a computer 24 hours a day 5.5 days a week. If you look more at the 4 hour charts you'll see that most weeks there is usually only 1-2, sometimes 3 prime entries per week. Pick your areas to trade for those potential areas. As a reformed stock index scalper, the hardest thing about doing this is the patience - but anyone can do it, and its simple and easy.

With kind wishes,
MK
  • #1,957
  • Sep 3, 2010 7:05am Sep 3, 2010 7:05am
Quoting pipEASY
However to be fair to all readers, I will adhere to the rules of the project and will only trade in one direction for now but yes, I would take both buy/sell normally.

I recommend any traders who just started preferably not to be taking both buy/sell, you will undoubtedly burn yourself out before any enlightment.

Sincerely,

Graeme

"Look, for example, at this elegant little experiment. A rat was put in a T-shaped maze with a few morsels of food placed on either the far right or left side of the enclosure. The placement of the food is randomly determined, but the dice is rigged: over the long run, the food was placed on the left side sixty per cent of the time. How did the rat respond? It quickly realized that the left side was more rewarding. As a result, it always went to the left, which resulted in a sixty percent success rate. The rat didn't strive for perfection. It didn't search for a Unified Theory of the T-shaped maze, or try to decipher the disorder. Instead, it accepted the inherent uncertainty of the reward and learned to settle for the best possible alternative.

The experiment was then repeated with Yale undergraduates. Unlike the rat, their swollen brains stubbornly searched for the elusive pattern that determined the placement of the reward. They made predictions and then tried to learn from their prediction errors. The problem was that there was nothing to predict: the randomness was real. Because the students refused to settle for a 60 percent success rate, they ended up with a 52 percent success rate. Although most of the students were convinced they were making progress towards identifying the underlying algorithm, they were actually being outsmarted by a rat."

 Lehrer, J. (2009) How We Decide, New York: Houghton Mifflin Harcourt, p64-65.

Smart Graeme, very smart.
  • #1,958
  • Sep 3, 2010 7:24am Sep 3, 2010 7:24am
All of us have to realize that our brains are not really wired for trading. It is easy to convince ourselves that our intellect will allow us to outsmart the market but I'll assure you that won't happen. I recall years ago I took great pride in making 50 positve trades in a row. Those of us who have tried and accomplished this quickly realized that being able to make a string of positive trades do not necessarily equate to making money. One of the worst things we can do is to make a number of positive trades in a row if that causes us to believe that our intellect and strategy are superior to the movement of the market. We must learn to use our intellect in a different way, understanding that the market is indeed alive and it will move and breathe in whatever direction it chooses, completely independent of our will. This is the most important revelation. Once understood, we then can move conquer this beast.
  • #1,959
  • Sep 3, 2010 7:43am Sep 3, 2010 7:43am
Ok guys...

After stacking longs ferociously based on weekly and daily price action ive had a little win after that NFP move. Basically i established 13 positions accross a few pairs... which is essentially a position size 13x greater than my account balance.

I lost 50 pips establishing those positions.

Im now up about 1200.

Thats for 3 days work, and equated to a (floating) equity increase of 110% rigfht here, right now. Pretty good considering i never had more than 2% of my account exposed.... I just wanted to tell everyone this becasue it is absolutely mind bogglingly awesome, and will happen for us ANY time we get some volatility... as long as we can let 'em run...

MM
"If it bleeds ... we can kill it"
  • #1,960
  • Sep 3, 2010 7:49am Sep 3, 2010 7:49am
Quoting Ari Gold
Ok guys...

After stacking longs ferociously based on weekly and daily price action ive had a little win after that NFP move. Basically i established 13 positions accross a few pairs... which is essentially a position size 13x greater than my account balance.

I lost 50 pips establishing those positions.

Im now up about 1200.

Thats for 3 days work, and equated to a (floating) equity increase of 110% rigfht here, right now. Pretty good considering i never had more than 2% of my account exposed.... I just wanted to tell everyone this becasue...
Hi Ari,

Mind sharing your Money Mgt be it % based or fixed lot for per position ?
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