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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #250,681
  • Sep 2, 2010 10:34am Sep 2, 2010 10:34am
Hey guys,

What is going to happen if NFP is going to be better than last month but worse than forecast?
  • #250,682
  • Sep 2, 2010 10:37am Sep 2, 2010 10:37am
Quoting gammase1
No entirely true.

Whilst lagging in one respect, employment data does provide distinct clues to the strength of the consumer, and their ability and willingness to spend in the months ahead. Don't forget, the consumer accounts for roughly 2/3 of the US economy.
I am well aware of that and that is what is really scaring me right now. Things at work are slow, scary slow. I work at a major distribution center that is entirely dependent on retail sales. High quality products but overpriced and not a single one of them can be called a need.

If things don't pick up after Labor Day for the Christmas rush then I see bad news coming for me and my co-workers come January.

Still, we must not forget that when an economy is coming out of a recession employment numbers are the last to recover.

It is a lagging indicator.
  • #250,683
  • Sep 2, 2010 10:45am Sep 2, 2010 10:45am
Quoting Astroman
It is a lagging indicator.

It lags both ways, and you can't judge an economic recovery by an increase in unemployment alone. There are some really good studies done by the fed during the recession of the 70's and how unemployment figures continued to increase while the economy was recovering.

A recovery can be so tenuous that employers continue to shed employees to increase their capital first. They can also continue to lay people of while their business is recovering just to shed unprofitable parts of their business, there are myriads of reasons that unemployment can continue to increase while the recovery is in progress.

Look at some of the productivity numbers coming out of the US right now and the increase of part time employment and the reduction of hourly wages. Employers are managing to increase output without having to hire people, and as long as that continues the unemployment figures won't change drastically.

There can be numurous jobless recovery scenarios that can play out. This of course is not helping your personal situation at all.

I am not saying that the US is recovering now, that is another debate in itself.
  • #250,684
  • Sep 2, 2010 10:50am Sep 2, 2010 10:50am
Well, I had a lovely day of staring at this nothing...

Gonna try find me something to eat now, pretty irritated

Let's talk about the impending doom of the US Dollar? Anyone?
@pawpaw1000 on Twitter
  • #250,685
  • Sep 2, 2010 10:51am Sep 2, 2010 10:51am
Quoting cloggie
It lags both ways, and you can't judge an economic recovery by an increase in unemployment alone. There are some really good studies done by the fed during the recession of the 70's and how unemployment figures continued to increase while the economy was recovering.

A recovery can be so tenuous that employers continue to shed employees to increase their capital first. They can also continue to lay people of while their business is recovering just to shed unprofitable parts of their business, there are myriads of reasons that unemployment can continue...
It definately isn't... Just took a adrenaline shot of about 1Trillion Dollars and it is now starting to wear off...

I say anarchy in 10 years...
@pawpaw1000 on Twitter
  • #250,686
  • Sep 2, 2010 10:53am Sep 2, 2010 10:53am
Quoting pawpaw1000
It definately isn't... Just took a adrenaline shot of about 1Trillion Dollars and it is now starting to wear off...

I say anarchy in 10 years...

You are actually strenghtening my argument, 1 trillion on a job package and nobody got hired while the output is increasing.
  • #250,687
  • Sep 2, 2010 10:59am Sep 2, 2010 10:59am
Quoting cloggie
There are some really good studies done by the fed during the recession of the 70's and how unemployment figures continued to increase while the economy was recovering.
Exactly!

That is why employment is commonly referred to as a lagging indicator.

Quote
I am not saying that the US is recovering now, that is another debate in itself.
Neither am I my man. The way I see it; because of things at work, what is happening to everybody I know ( not they they have lost their jobs but somebody in their family has ), 7 weeks ago here where I live, over 500 people stood in line for 8 job openings paying $9.50 USD per hour---a side note on that is that a Tornado warning was issued at the time with sirens blaring and lightning striking but yet few gave up there place in line.

It's scary.
  • #250,688
  • Sep 2, 2010 11:02am Sep 2, 2010 11:02am
Quoting nAVIN2007
hi paul from a fundy point of view..u think pound is going up or down?
Not that I'd be prepared to trade purely based on my - often flawed and imperfect - understanding of the world.....

However, in answer to your question, a large part depends, I think, on whether the Fed embarks on further QE in order to reflate the slowing economy. If this happens, then the risks for the dollar are weighted to the downside, providing the UK doesn't follow suit.

From the noises made at Jackson Hole over the weekend, and the release of the latest FOMC minutes, it seems the Fed will wait until (if) the economic situation deteriorates appreciably before announcing further expansion to their balance sheet.

Personally, my gut says, with employment and price pressures so weak, they (the Fed) will need to roll out more QE and go further than merely maintaining the size of their balance sheet at the $2 trillion mark.

On balance, therefore, I would veer towards being bullish for cable over the long-term, though not with enough conviction to warrant me placing a long-term position on what is, after all, only a gut feeling.

I definitely do not fall into the camp that believes the collapse of the dollar is coming.
  • #250,689
  • Sep 2, 2010 11:03am Sep 2, 2010 11:03am
Quoting Astroman

It is a lagging indicator.
and, to a certain extent, a leading one, that has some predictive qualities.

Hope your personal situation turns out well.
  • #250,690
  • Sep 2, 2010 11:04am Sep 2, 2010 11:04am
Quoting Astroman
.

Neither am I my man. The way I see it; because of things at work, what is happening to everybody I know ( not they they have lost their jobs but somebody in their family has ), 7 weeks ago here where I live, over 500 people stood in line for 8 job openings paying $9.50 USD per hour---a side note on that is that a Tornado warning was issued at the time with sirens blaring and lightning striking but yet few gave up there place in line.

It's scary.

Where in the US are you, Astroman?
  • #250,691
  • Sep 2, 2010 11:05am Sep 2, 2010 11:05am
Quoting Delite
Where in the US are you, Astroman?
Naptown.

Westside is the best side!

  • #250,692
  • Sep 2, 2010 11:07am Sep 2, 2010 11:07am
Sorry Delite I just noticed you are from U.K.

Naptown here in the states is otherwise known as Indianapolis, Indiana.
  • #250,693
  • Sep 2, 2010 11:10am Sep 2, 2010 11:10am
Quoting cloggie
You are actually strenghtening my argument, 1 trillion on a job package and nobody got hired while the output is increasing.
Well, people now have more money to spend until it is also gone and then what? Without jobs there is no consumption so a jobless recovery, in the long run, is no recovery...
@pawpaw1000 on Twitter
  • #250,694
  • Sep 2, 2010 11:11am Sep 2, 2010 11:11am
Quoting gammase1
Not that I'd be prepared to trade purely based on my - often flawed and imperfect - understanding of the world.....

However, in answer to your question, a large part depends, I think, on whether the Fed embarks on further QE in order to reflate the slowing economy....
thanks buddy
  • #250,695
  • Sep 2, 2010 11:13am Sep 2, 2010 11:13am
laid off from the Am General at christmas.
  • #250,696
  • Sep 2, 2010 11:17am Sep 2, 2010 11:17am
Quoting gammase1
Not that I'd be prepared to trade purely based on my - often flawed and imperfect - understanding of the world.....
I think that all our fundamental analysis is flawed and imperfect because the world is flawed and imperfect-there is perhaps a correlation there !! I'll leave that to the sociologists to figure out. I rather like NNT's approach to fundamentals, he admits that he knows nothing and his edge is elsewhere derived,...much like a tech trading edge, - having a fundamental opnion can sometimes hinder you acting when your tech trading edge sets-up. Howe many sustained bearish correcyions have we seen fundie bull markets and vice versa??

Technicals seem somewhat less subjective an analysis than fundamental.

G/L
ex member
  • #250,697
  • Sep 2, 2010 11:21am Sep 2, 2010 11:21am
Quoting Astroman
Sorry Delite I just noticed you are from U.K.

Naptown here in the states is otherwise known as Indianapolis, Indiana.

No problem! Never been to Indianapolis, but we have good friends who live in Chicago and have a place in Wisconsin. Both terrific places.

I hope your work situation improves over the next few months.
  • #250,698
  • Sep 2, 2010 11:23am Sep 2, 2010 11:23am
Quoting bbmac
Technicals seem somewhat less subjective an analysis than fundamental.

G/L
Amen to that! Fundies make my head spin. I just want to be aware enough of them to know when to stay out of trades .. but often price action tells me that as well.
******************* I'd rather make money than be right.
  • #250,699
  • Sep 2, 2010 11:24am Sep 2, 2010 11:24am
take long @ 1.5403, SL 1.535, TP 1.545
  • #250,700
  • Sep 2, 2010 11:26am Sep 2, 2010 11:26am
Quoting Delite
No problem! Never been to Indianapolis, but we have good friends who live in Chicago and have a place in Wisconsin. Both terrific places.

.
Get out of here.

I was born in Milwaukee and most of my family still lives there as well as Chicago.

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