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Profitunity (Chaos) Trading System by Bill Williams

  • #861
  • Aug 11, 2010 8:26pm Aug 11, 2010 8:26pm
  •  Nimrod
  • | Joined Oct 2008 | Status: Energy and persistence conquer all | 168 Posts
Hi Guys,
I trade using the alligator for bias decision and incoperate ABCD formation as well.I just want to ask you guys who specifically trade with the Divergent bars, could you confirm that the Divergent Bullish bar is another term for the evening star, the Bearish Divergent bar as the Evening star?
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Bullish Divergent Bar or Evening Star.jpg Size: 34 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Classic Dra Morning Star Aug 11.jpg Size: 28 KB
  • #862
  • Aug 13, 2010 12:59pm Aug 13, 2010 12:59pm
Hi guys,

I just having a test with Fractal breakout trading and with alligator lines. So far the trade on recent situation provide good pips and nice result.

but I have questions:
1. when the market have no trend (sideways) should we waiting the market till they have the trend to open position ?

2. with alligator indicators / oscillators ... how to know whether the price already overbought or oversold ... did you guys using stoch or just using gator/ao/ac ?
  • #863
  • Aug 15, 2010 8:14am Aug 15, 2010 8:14am
Quoting nightingale
Hi guys,

I just having a test with Fractal breakout trading and with alligator lines. So far the trade on recent situation provide good pips and nice result.

but I have questions:
1. when the market have no trend (sideways) should we waiting the market till they have the trend to open position ?

2. with alligator indicators / oscillators ... how to know whether the price already overbought or oversold ... did you guys using stoch or just using gator/ao/ac ?
1. yupp definitely, you should wait
2. i only use his indicator, alligator, fractal and ao, that's more than enough for me..
  • #864
  • Aug 15, 2010 9:46pm Aug 15, 2010 9:46pm
Quoting Nimrod
Hi Guys,
I trade using the alligator for bias decision and incoperate ABCD formation as well.I just want to ask you guys who specifically trade with the Divergent bars, could you confirm that the Divergent Bullish bar is another term for the evening star, the Bearish Divergent bar as the Evening star?
Hi nimrod,
i don't know about evening star or other candle stick pattern. for me i just like to make it simple and follow what's in bill's book..
  • #865
  • Aug 15, 2010 11:21pm Aug 15, 2010 11:21pm
What is the profity factor this strategy?
  • #866
  • Aug 16, 2010 8:20am Aug 16, 2010 8:20am
  •  Nimrod
  • | Joined Oct 2008 | Status: Energy and persistence conquer all | 168 Posts
Quoting alligator
Hi nimrod,
i don't know about evening star or other candle stick pattern. for me i just like to make it simple and follow what's in bill's book..
Thanks brother.Appreciate your input.Thanks.
  • #867
  • Aug 16, 2010 2:21pm Aug 16, 2010 2:21pm
How many of you are trading BW's method in a live account and consistently making money?

Also to those that reply......what time frame do you use that has created the consistency?

Thanks.
  • #868
  • Aug 16, 2010 10:42pm Aug 16, 2010 10:42pm
I prefer longer time frames because I have a life beyond sitting on the monitor. I like trading shorter time frames ...BW stuff works even on M5 but the time required to sit and watch is a no go for me.

As for profitable. Last week I caught the drop in the Euro, not a strict BW entry but a nice drop to the 38% level that was right on after an AO divergence.
  • #869
  • Aug 17, 2010 1:09am Aug 17, 2010 1:09am
Quoting Wab
I prefer longer time frames because I have a life beyond sitting on the monitor. I like trading shorter time frames ...BW stuff works even on M5 but the time required to sit and watch is a no go for me.

As for profitable. Last week I caught the drop in the Euro, not a strict BW entry but a nice drop to the 38% level that was right on after an AO divergence.
usually i use daily and 4 hour to look the overall trend.. and enter based on hourly chart, look at 15 min chart to see the end of wave count on hourly chart. well i learn a lot reading tax geek post, anyway where is he now? long time no see his posting...

yeahhh the drop in the euro and gbp as well, 4 hour chart and hourly chart ao divergence, end of a trend and also break the trend line. but still hard for me to stay in a trend
  • #870
  • Aug 17, 2010 7:13am Aug 17, 2010 7:13am
Quoting nightingale
Hi guys,

I just having a test with Fractal breakout trading and with alligator lines. So far the trade on recent situation provide good pips and nice result.

but I have questions:
1. when the market have no trend (sideways) should we waiting the market till they have the trend to open position ?

2. with alligator indicators / oscillators ... how to know whether the price already overbought or oversold ... did you guys using stoch or just using gator/ao/ac ?
1. No, you don't! Bill Williams says you have to see when the alligator lines are interwining for some time (alligator sleeping) and place orders above/below the fractals. If you wait until there's a trend, you'll get it on the middle or end, and with the add-ons you will be doing you'll lose a lot.
2. Bill Williams says overbought/oversold levels don't exist, so don't even worry about that.

Quote
Also to those that reply......what time frame do you use that has created the consistency?

Thanks.

With all the add-ons you have to do following the original Bill Williams strategy... Unless you have a special account with very low spreads I don't see anything else than daily/weekly being profitable, maybe 4 hours too. But you have to follow it bar by bar, so unless you want to look at the monitor every 4 hours for the whole day, just trade daily or trade non 24h markets.
  • #871
  • Aug 17, 2010 11:16am Aug 17, 2010 11:16am
Wab and alligator.......thank you for your replies. Very much appreciate you both sharing how you are succeeding.
  • #872
  • Edited 3:15pm Aug 17, 2010 1:16pm | Edited 3:15pm
I already tested EUR/AUD from 01/01/2001 to november of 2007 on daily, assuming a spread of 3 pips.

The results were a total profit of 13400 pips during 7 years and an average profit per month of 159 pips. However I ignored the massive win of 7000 pips on a trade, to play it safe (I don't want a strategy to win depending on a single move).

Maximum drawdown = 3600 pips
Average profit/average loss (reward to risk ) = didn't calculate it, but it's good. Maybe 3:1

With diversification (for the same amount invested) the risk decreases and the total profit increases. I'm going to finish testing EUR/AUD and start on other pairs, I'm gonna keep updating
  • #873
  • Edited 6:56pm Aug 18, 2010 11:42am | Edited 6:56pm
Quoting Jasus
I already tested EUR/AUD from 01/01/2001 to november of 2007 on daily, assuming a spread of 3 pips.

The results were a total profit of 13400 pips during 7 years and an average profit per month of 159 pips. However I ignored the massive win of 7000 pips on a trade, to play it safe (I don't want a strategy to win depending on a single move).

Maximum drawdown = 3600 pips
Average profit/average loss (reward to risk ) = didn't calculate it, but it's good. Maybe 3:1

With diversification (for the same amount invested) the...

hi Jasus,


may I know your entry exit strategy using fractal ? Did you do swing or scalping using fractal ?

if possible, may I see your entry exit strategy on chart .... please
I got a problem with the exit strategy at the moment ... sometimes I got profit by fractal break out but the target prices are not meet so it bounce back and touching the sell fractal which mean my long position closed by stop loss n it ignited new sell/short position .. and then it bounce back (like Euro-Usd today)

here is my chart ... I lost a lot of money in this market because I got whipsaw both buy and sell positions are touched and my stop loss weretriggered as well

http://img839.imageshack.us/img839/3...0818234603.png
  • #874
  • Aug 19, 2010 3:27pm Aug 19, 2010 3:27pm
Hi nightingale, i exit like the bill william book's describes. http://www.alpari.co.uk/en/alpari_ac...t_markets.html
  • #875
  • Aug 22, 2010 7:32pm Aug 22, 2010 7:32pm
Quote
I already tested EUR/AUD from 01/01/2001 to november of 2007 on daily, assuming a spread of 3 pips.

The results were a total profit of 13400 pips during 7 years and an average profit per month of 159 pips. However I ignored the massive win of 7000 pips on a trade, to play it safe (I don't want a strategy to win depending on a single move).

Maximum drawdown = 3600 pips
Average profit/average loss (reward to risk ) = didn't calculate it, but it's good. Maybe 3:1

With diversification (for the same amount invested) the...
I finished my tests on EUR/AUD, but I realized I was doing entries and add-ons wrongly. I'll update in a few days with a correct test on some pair.
  • #876
  • Aug 24, 2010 5:39am Aug 24, 2010 5:39am
  •  Nimrod
  • | Joined Oct 2008 | Status: Energy and persistence conquer all | 168 Posts
Hi fellow alligators,
My take on the trading and I hope this answers why the alligattoor is profitable.No doubt about it.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aLLIGATOR aCEDAMIC.jpg Size: 68 KB
  • #877
  • Aug 24, 2010 11:54pm Aug 24, 2010 11:54pm
Quoting Nimrod
Hi fellow alligators,
My take on the trading and I hope this answers why the alligattoor is profitable.No doubt about it.
Hello Nimrod,
Glad to see you back in action.
PM me your mail id since your old id's aren't in use I presume
  • #878
  • Aug 28, 2010 6:16pm Aug 28, 2010 6:16pm
Good day all, I just wanted to chime in and say that i to used the BW indicators. The indicaotrs have been converted from MT to the Ninjatrader forum. So after 1.5 years of shadowtraders and every other damn thing not to mention crappy resluts, now this. Im pleased to announce great resluts. Just to be honest as possible, my trades are still sim but plan live trading monday morning. Here is what im looking at on the 6E. Basically scalping is what I prefer. What makes a good entry would be the ac, ao on a three min chart positive or negitive (both matching) Then look for the 1 min chart to product the same thing. Once the Elliott Oscillator diverges, you are in for 3-9 tics. Still have to determined what the fractals do???
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 6E 09-10 8_27_2010 (1 Min).jpg Size: 144 KB
  • #879
  • Aug 30, 2010 12:19am Aug 30, 2010 12:19am
Is this euro wave count correct??
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EUR wave.PNG Size: 49 KB
  • #880
  • Aug 31, 2010 10:23am Aug 31, 2010 10:23am
Here is my hourly count for the Euro. Maybe it will help?

Check the count against the AO to see if it is correct when ever you can. The very last label II is one I am not comfortable with.

Good luck.

http://www.elkvalleygold.com/Forex/F...D%20M60%20.jpg
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