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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #244,601
  • Aug 10, 2010 10:52am Aug 10, 2010 10:52am
Quoting gotpips92
Would it not make sense for the fed to say or do something with QE just as an attempt to weaken the dollar? Considering many other "stimulus" measures have failed, why not try to give exporters some support?
Do you think that weakening the $ would help?
Romance with QE could make USD even stronger. Market interpretation of news is complex. It could have long term effect.

Precap2
Mystery Is The Final Product Of Ignorance. Hey! What's ma chart doin'
  • #244,602
  • Aug 10, 2010 11:02am Aug 10, 2010 11:02am
As yet the 100sma and 200sma on both daily and weekly chart remain untouched by the move down from 5997. 4hr's remain crossed up (ie 100 above 200) and pointing up and daily 100 is pointing up although crossed below the 200 on that t/f which remains pointing down..

Fomc later and Uk Boe Qtrly inflation report tomorrow, and looking further to the downside, the previous daily/weekly swing hi shown below on daily chart has the 50% of 4944-5997 swing in there with 61.8% of 5117-5997. (please do not rtead into this thatIi expect cable to drop, I have no idea whatprice will do in reaction, I just play the edge when it sets-up.)

G/L
Attached Image
ex member
  • #244,603
  • Aug 10, 2010 11:02am Aug 10, 2010 11:02am
Guys SIgn in for the Recycle competation


http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=249496





CHeers
"Buy on fear, sell on greed !!!
  • #244,604
  • Aug 10, 2010 11:06am Aug 10, 2010 11:06am
Quoting Magix
This simply doesn't make sense.

IF we get to 1.5555, there is a very good likelihood that we do test daily support some 200 pips below this number...from there if support doesn't hold, and if you check back through historical charts, August is a selling month, you could be holding a lot more loss...

Second....
IF historical charts fail, and all we are really doing is a bit of a retrace, what if price never hits your target for re-entry?

I have seen a lot of people try and fail using the same strategy...picking tops n bottoms.

Really, if you...
Tops

http://img840.imageshack.us/img840/6...9gcs11d0xb.jpg

Bottoms

http://img217.imageshack.us/img217/9...9gcs4qdu1a.jpg
  • #244,605
  • Aug 10, 2010 11:06am Aug 10, 2010 11:06am
Quoting Petar_Serbia
Guys SIgn in for the Recycle competation

CHeers



Yeh . whatever, meanwhile back in the real world of oh I dunno, actually making pips...Doh !! Good article here re Qe
http://pragcap.com/quantitative-easi...tary-non-event and WSJ take on it here: http://voices.washingtonpost.com/pol..._look_for.html
ex member
  • #244,606
  • Aug 10, 2010 11:07am Aug 10, 2010 11:07am
Quoting Magix

Really, if you have an idea of where bottom is, why not sell into it?

that's what i thought as well. why not just sell till 1.55
oh well ..
Thank You
  • #244,607
  • Aug 10, 2010 11:08am Aug 10, 2010 11:08am
Quoting forexlion
Tops



Bottoms
You need to get out more often
ex member
  • #244,608
  • Aug 10, 2010 11:11am Aug 10, 2010 11:11am
Ex Governor Meyer's opinion of QE2

http://www.cnbc.com/id/38640418

The upswing is broken and a further retrace to 15550 in the coming days is very possible
  • #244,609
  • Aug 10, 2010 11:11am Aug 10, 2010 11:11am
why are some levels so good

http://img153.imageshack.us/img153/900/47367695.gif
  • #244,610
  • Aug 10, 2010 11:18am Aug 10, 2010 11:18am
http://img137.imageshack.us/img137/5540/45309068.gif
  • #244,611
  • Aug 10, 2010 11:26am Aug 10, 2010 11:26am
Quoting Elite_trader
it can make sense base on your system/strategy..... I do understand where he comes from....FOMC & BOE event risks tonight and tomorrow would clarify the medium term direction...... despite what many traders think here, even though we are in an uptrend for a while, which is due to better than expected economic data in UK & Euro comparing to US, this is not going to last long.....on larger picture, once the effect of austerity measures and potential defaults in EU kick in...... am not surprised to see cable at 1.25 - 1.30 level...... is it tomorrow?...
Sure, everybody gotta have a system, but this seems as close of a planned fail strategy as I could ever imagine as it again assumes tops and bottoms.

The way I see it, this number 1.5555 is some ambiguous arbitrary number pulled out of nothing. That number if a bounce on the daily would only indicate a trigger to long side, but on a continued slide, we would still most certainly see daily support tested.

Given the idea that we can set market orders, if one was 100% positive of this being a crucial turn point, it would be easy to set a TP here and a reversed buy order same point...so the statement is just a touch on the side of really being touched.

I know people spout shit in here all day everyday...Cripes, I am guilty of it myself...but even inside of this and certainly not saying I know all, do what I do...I would expect an idea or some market price action banter based on this logic.

There are several of us that take some time to try and work with those new to the market as well as this is an open forum that we can freely chat charts and ideas...a number in space does not accomplish this.

Just my take.
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Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #244,612
  • Aug 10, 2010 11:29am Aug 10, 2010 11:29am
  •  ams
  • | Joined Apr 2009 | Status: Perspective,Position,Plan ,Pattern | 2,859 Posts
ok, i am out with merely 30 pips...

doesn't look convincing will wait till tomorrow when BOE has some news...


ta


ams


Quoting ams
I changed my order to 57500 and amended sl to 57...

I know it's gonna touch it and if it goes below then it's a very bad sign for the bulls no coming back before 154.

I expect a sharp rise from this level..if not, I'll cancel my trade if it moves up which it'll, hope so

ta
ams
  • #244,613
  • Aug 10, 2010 11:32am Aug 10, 2010 11:32am
Re Magix's point above,.... right now, difficult as it always is to judge what the market reaction (knee jerk and longer term) will be to the Fomc in a couple of hours (let alone what they will say !) it is probably more likely that the market will be dissapointed on their limited action. Ie they will indicate that they acknowledge a worse than expected situation re growth and jobs since last time but will more likely than not state that they bvelieve monetary policy to be accommodative therefore not start a new round of QE (QE2) at this meeting, let alone maintain the current size of their balance sheet as some maturities are due....? This being the most likely case, the market is most likely to sell $ at least on the knee jerk ?

But, hey it's data so anything can happen.

G/L
ex member
  • #244,614
  • Aug 10, 2010 11:45am Aug 10, 2010 11:45am
Quoting grashid
opss..where we are..lock 500pips (50pips in 4 decimal)...

chow

g
close one at 2700pips (270pips in 4 decimal) and lock last one at BE+1000(100pips in 4 decimal)

  • #244,615
  • Aug 10, 2010 11:46am Aug 10, 2010 11:46am
NY lows from Yesterday....An area I would imagine gets filled before we see another move to the downside. The day is still negative and well, anything really can happen but this is just a little of what I am watching out for.

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Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #244,616
  • Aug 10, 2010 11:47am Aug 10, 2010 11:47am
Quoting Magix
Sure, everybody gotta have a system, but this seems as close of a planned fail strategy as I could ever imagine as it again assumes tops and bottoms.

The way I see it, this number 1.5555 is some ambiguous arbitrary number pulled out of nothing....
I think the 15555 number comes from this trendline.

It is a viable strategy. For a minimal sl one can still be holding onto a profitable position if bought at the arrow.
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  • #244,617
  • Edited 12:02pm Aug 10, 2010 11:51am | Edited 12:02pm
Quoting trending
I think the 15555 number comes from this trendline.

It is a viable strategy. For a minimal sl one can still be holding onto a profitable position if bought at the arrow.
That assumes that somebody would know market time as well as price, almost like saying, in 27 hours and 18 minutes I will be entering into a buy on GU....

The market buys and sells on its own clock, and though that might be a fair estimate, it again assumes not only tops and bottoms but that one is extremely in tune with the market motion.

And AGAIN...

IF that is where you are pretty sure to take a position from...why not sell into it?

Thanks for the reply, I do appreciate the efforts on the charts and adding to the discussion, this in itself will lend a lot more then what would have otherwise appeared to be a random number....



I would like to add...

I am not telling anybody to buy or sell...I am using this as an example, sorry if it even seems like I am picking on this fella.

IF you have a strategy, and believe me, read through the forums and you will see the same thing everyday, people sitting on their hands for hours only to take a counter trade and watch it go against them, make sure it has some merit or logic behind.

I am all for following the money, never assuming anything. With a couple of mouse clicks, I can be in and out of a trade at my choosing.

Follow the money, what ever time frame you can make work for you.
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #244,618
  • Aug 10, 2010 12:07pm Aug 10, 2010 12:07pm
Quoting primzvicious
welcome first resistance
closed for 70pips
Verily, in every difficulties there is relief
  • #244,619
  • Aug 10, 2010 12:07pm Aug 10, 2010 12:07pm
Quoting Magix
That assumes that somebody would know market time as well as price, almost like saying, in 27 hours and 18 minutes I will be entering into a buy on GU....

The market buys and sells on its own clock, and though that might be a fair estimate, it again assumes not only tops and bottoms but that one is extremely in tune with the market motion.

And AGAIN...

IF that is where you are pretty sure to take a position from...why not sell into it?

Thanks for the reply, I do appreciate the efforts on the charts and adding to the discussion, this in itself...
Why not selling...

I thought these are quite commonly known techniques. No indicator required.
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  • #244,620
  • Aug 10, 2010 12:09pm Aug 10, 2010 12:09pm
Quoting primzvicious
closed for 70pips
Good day to you,

You have done well! Very nice profit on that trade.

Regards
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