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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #244,581
  • Aug 10, 2010 8:58am Aug 10, 2010 8:58am
Thanks for posting the 'boxes' most interesting.

Was going to go and have a rest, but may well stay and have another trade or two.....

Happier with the little pip profits, than trying for the larger ones.........
  • #244,582
  • Aug 10, 2010 8:58am Aug 10, 2010 8:58am
Quoting 4xStar
While everyone was trying to find a place to go long again, 5 min boxes were telling the 'real' story ... she might not be finished with the down elevator just yet.
she is in overbought territory in most time frames & it's only healthy to see a correction before next leg up, after 1750 pips rally past months, I would give enough room to fall before taking another long......
  • #244,583
  • Aug 10, 2010 9:02am Aug 10, 2010 9:02am
Inserted Video
  • #244,584
  • Edited 9:04am Aug 10, 2010 9:02am | Edited 9:04am
Well,

'Waiting for Cloggie to pop in here,
and say "See"!

But 'still think when 2pm rolls around,
she'll fly north for some retrace,
@least then!
Best of Pipping Gang,
Back out to make the real world donuts,

Jeff
I will work to Objectively Identify my Edges
  • #244,585
  • Aug 10, 2010 9:03am Aug 10, 2010 9:03am
Hi 4xstar

From your first box where did you short from as when price left the first box it kept going down ie not retesting the small support that had been created from that little cluster, also your second box did you short when price broke from the box or did you short when price went back to retest.

Thanks



Quoting 4xStar
While everyone was trying to find a place to go long again, 5 min boxes were telling the 'real' story ... she might not be finished with the down elevator just yet.
  • #244,586
  • Aug 10, 2010 9:11am Aug 10, 2010 9:11am
I have always been emphasing the importance of H4 chart to the survival of a day trader. If you follow H4 you have more that 80% chance of being successful with your trades. H4 will always give you advanced notice of what it is planning to do. As you can see from the chart below, you have between 4-7 candles or more before any major move i.e. between 11 and 21 hours notice. This is enough signal for any wise trader. What is simply required for a trader is to excise patience and follow what the signal says.
Attached Thumbnailshttp://cdn.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1281446668
  • #244,587
  • Aug 10, 2010 9:13am Aug 10, 2010 9:13am
80% chance of being successful?

mmmm, somehow i don't think so...
  • #244,588
  • Aug 10, 2010 9:20am Aug 10, 2010 9:20am
http://nsa17.casimages.com/img/2010/...2147434463.jpg

new trendline ?
  • #244,589
  • Aug 10, 2010 9:24am Aug 10, 2010 9:24am
latest cable forecast for some that don't have an access to these data:

Forecast 1m 3m 12m

CMC markets 1.60 1.53 1.58
FXCM 1.57 1.55 1.40
HSBC 1.59 1.58 1.65
SEB 1.59 1.54 1.50
Standard Chartered 1.56 1.48 1.55

Hope it helps
  • #244,590
  • Aug 10, 2010 9:24am Aug 10, 2010 9:24am
Would it not make sense for the fed to say or do something with QE just as an attempt to weaken the dollar? Considering many other "stimulus" measures have failed, why not try to give exporters some support?
  • #244,591
  • Aug 10, 2010 9:27am Aug 10, 2010 9:27am
Quoting gotpips92
Would it not make sense for the fed to say or do something with QE just as an attempt to weaken the dollar? Considering many other "stimulus" measures have failed, why not try to give exporters some support?
They don't want to fix the economy. The worse it gets the more regulations and take overs they can push on us because there is a "emergency".
  • #244,592
  • Aug 10, 2010 9:32am Aug 10, 2010 9:32am
What's with cable and the number 1.5708? I remember somebody called this number out about a couple of weeks ago.
  • #244,593
  • Aug 10, 2010 9:38am Aug 10, 2010 9:38am
Uptrend still intact.
No positions atm, targeting levels around 1.555 for re-entering longs

D1:
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Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #244,594
  • Aug 10, 2010 9:39am Aug 10, 2010 9:39am
Quoting need-help
What's with cable and the number 1.5708? I remember somebody called this number out about a couple of weeks ago.
I have it as a H4 support level from a while back.
  • #244,595
  • Aug 10, 2010 9:57am Aug 10, 2010 9:57am
Quoting USD-Bear
Uptrend still intact.
No positions atm, targeting levels around 1.555 for re-entering longs

D1:
that's over 400 pips from 5970 & 200 pips from where we are now. You're just gonna sit & watch?
Thank You
  • #244,596
  • Aug 10, 2010 10:00am Aug 10, 2010 10:00am
Quoting wormboy
that's over 400 pips from 5970 & 200 pips from where we are now. You're just gonna sit & watch?
Yes, I will it's a free wait, no probs with that at all.....
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #244,597
  • Aug 10, 2010 10:24am Aug 10, 2010 10:24am
Quoting USD-Bear
Yes, I will it's a free wait, no probs with that at all.....
This simply doesn't make sense.

IF we get to 1.5555, there is a very good likelihood that we do test daily support some 200 pips below this number...from there if support doesn't hold, and if you check back through historical charts, August is a selling month, you could be holding a lot more loss...

Second....
IF historical charts fail, and all we are really doing is a bit of a retrace, what if price never hits your target for re-entry?

I have seen a lot of people try and fail using the same strategy...picking tops n bottoms.

Really, if you have an idea of where bottom is, why not sell into it?

Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #244,598
  • Aug 10, 2010 10:29am Aug 10, 2010 10:29am
welcome first resistance
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Verily, in every difficulties there is relief
  • #244,599
  • Aug 10, 2010 10:42am Aug 10, 2010 10:42am
Quoting Magix
This simply doesn't make sense.

IF we get to 1.5555, there is a very good likelihood that we do test daily support some 200 pips below this number...from there if support doesn't hold, and if you check back through historical charts, August is a selling month, you could be holding a lot more loss...

Second....
IF historical charts fail, and all we are really doing is a bit of a retrace, what if price never hits your target for re-entry?

I have seen a lot of people try and fail using the same strategy...picking tops n bottoms.

Really, if you...
it can make sense base on your system/strategy..... I do understand where he comes from....FOMC & BOE event risks tonight and tomorrow would clarify the medium term direction...... despite what many traders think here, even though we are in an uptrend for a while, which is due to better than expected economic data in UK & Euro comparing to US, this is not going to last long.....on larger picture, once the effect of austerity measures and potential defaults in EU kick in...... am not surprised to see cable at 1.25 - 1.30 level...... is it tomorrow? obviously not, it could get there within next 6-9 months...... on the same note, don't forget that weak sterling is helping UK export & King might be dovish tomorrow as always to take it down..... testing 200 sma is no surprise as early as tomorrow.......
  • #244,600
  • Aug 10, 2010 10:48am Aug 10, 2010 10:48am
Just looking back and updaing charts, since I finished my trading session earlier today.

The 4hr ascending channel is bust convincingly to the downside and price has taken out some fibs of the swings up to 5997 including 23.6% of the 4944-5997 swing up, landing around the 61.8% of the 5548-5997 with price at 129% of it's 20day average pip range at the current low, back within the ascending daily channel.

That 3 fib cluster is below current price 5580-5611 (23.6% 's of 4229 and 435 with 38.2% of said 4944 to same 5997 high) Ahead of that 5665-57 sees a previous 4hr swing hi zone containing 2 x fibs, namely 76.4% of said 5548-5997 with 38.2% of longer 5117-5997.

Price so far is at 78% of it's 13 week average pip range

G/L
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