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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #244,161
  • Aug 8, 2010 5:19pm Aug 8, 2010 5:19pm
Quoting Pickensrulz
And I love responses like these and yours Malcomb. These "certainties" are anything but certain. I am not so naive as to not think that. I speak with only my educated opinion, obviously. Verbage is for entertainment purpose. And who knows, I might just be right.

And I said in 2011 is when the dollar will trend down. I am not a pro like u, but I think that means g/u will go up.
I'm not a pro but I wonder....
I see pro's in FX markets and particularly politicians as great manipulators.
I think Bernanke & Co. will do all they can to talk down the USD trying to inflate their enormous debts and stimulate their economy.
Some preliminary results can already be seen in the recovery of the "Baltic Dry Index" an important indicator to me.
Interest rates in US are at historic lows now and as we all know changes in them compared to other economies (differentials) have great influence in fx trends.
I believe 2011 will therefor be a phase of large increases in US interest rates a period where I do not see dollar trending down.
Of course these fundamental thoughts have no relevance for the short term trend and could be totally wrong if recovery will not occur, but for the long term I'll be looking at UJ as an ideal pair for a great bull trend if interest rate differentials develop the way I described above.
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #244,162
  • Aug 8, 2010 5:24pm Aug 8, 2010 5:24pm
Quoting pip_daddy
sigh......central banks decide and it's mostly to control inflation.

Sigh...central banks are not regular market players. Central bank policy obviously has ramifications but central bankers regularly state they just don't want irregular price movement.
  • #244,163
  • Aug 8, 2010 5:26pm Aug 8, 2010 5:26pm
Quoting pip_daddy
banks decide and it's all supply/demand. Everyone should have a basic understanding of this before they bet one penny.
http://www.investopedia.com/articles.../interbank.asp

No bank has the ability to move the market for any extended period of time. Not even a central bank. So please spare me.

I am talking about entering the market, actually placing orders in the fx markets. Not policy decisions.
  • #244,164
  • Aug 8, 2010 5:27pm Aug 8, 2010 5:27pm
on a side note
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/for...rts-2010-08-07

ford ceo got 1st pay check after having no pay for 5 years ...4 million and 28 million in cashed out options ....lol .. poor guy how did he feed his family for 5 years
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #244,165
  • Aug 8, 2010 5:31pm Aug 8, 2010 5:31pm
Quoting Pickensrulz
No bank has the ability to move the market for any extended period of time. Not even a central bank. So please spare me.

there are professional money bulls and bears on every times frames. some banks will want to sell on a 60 min , while others will buy dips for longer term holds.

so your statement while true in some regards is not 100 % correct .

when markets go sideways for extended period of time as they did in the 1.6000 to 1.7000 both side were in stale mate.

It is an interesting market we trade. I have noticed this one thing is that it seems that 1.2 to 1.5 cents range is all most countries want on their major currency fluctuations each day , hence we have very nice ranges of 130 to 150 pip a day , not all we have to do is work out where the top and bottom falls each day
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #244,166
  • Aug 8, 2010 5:32pm Aug 8, 2010 5:32pm
Cable looks like it may have some strong selling at around the 1.6450 area due to the red upper trend line, resistance at 1.6457 and the phycological number of 1.6500. I'm thinking EUR/USD will begin to top out within the next couple of weeks. This I believe will give reason to sell Cable at around 1.6450 (If we make it that high). Even if it's just profit taking pushing us back to 1.5700 and where a strong bullish move may take control and push us through the upper trend line. Keep an eye on the fundamentals as these are key!
Also note the green trend line which may show we are in an uptrend, in which case a run up to 1.7500/1.8000 may be on the cards!
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  • #244,167
  • Aug 8, 2010 5:33pm Aug 8, 2010 5:33pm
Quoting malcolmb14
on a side note
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/for...rts-2010-08-07

ford ceo got 1st pay check after having no pay for 5 years ...4 million and 28 million in cashed out options ....lol .. poor guy how did he feed his family for 5 years
Good for him. I respect Ford for not taking the government hand outs.
  • #244,168
  • Aug 8, 2010 5:33pm Aug 8, 2010 5:33pm
Quoting Pickensrulz
No bank has the ability to move the market for any extended period of time. Not even a central bank. So please spare me.

I am talking about entering the market, actually placing orders in the fx markets. Not policy decisions.
history has a habit of repeating

The breakout of 1.5000 went about 280 pips high , came down to test 1.5000 on a low volume down week .

I would not be surprised to see the same thing happen on a break of 1.6000. I think I mentioned a target of 1.62xx a could of weeks back .
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #244,169
  • Aug 8, 2010 5:36pm Aug 8, 2010 5:36pm
Quoting malcolmb14
history has a habit of repeating

The breakout of 1.5000 went about 280 pips high , came down to test 1.5000 on a low volume down week .

I would not be surprised to see the same thing happen on a break of 1.6000. I think I mentioned a target of 1.62xx a could of weeks back .

Agreed. PA and technicals are clearly pointing up (in my eyes anyway).
  • #244,170
  • Aug 8, 2010 5:40pm Aug 8, 2010 5:40pm
Quoting Pickensrulz
Agreed. PA and technicals are clearly pointing up (in my eyes anyway).
one fellow posted this
http://fxtradeinfocenter.oanda.com/o...osition_ratios

if in fact the ratio of longs to shorts on gu is as this table points out there could be short squeeze that rockets gu up into 6500 and higher.

I am mostly a 15 min chart intraday trader , so as long as the daily range stays in the 130 to 150 area I am happy
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #244,171
  • Aug 8, 2010 5:50pm Aug 8, 2010 5:50pm
Quoting malcolmb14
one fellow posted this
http://fxtradeinfocenter.oanda.com/o...osition_ratios

if in fact the ratio of longs to shorts on gu is as this table points out there could be short squeeze that rockets gu up into 6500 and higher.

I am mostly a 15 min chart intraday trader , so as long as the daily range stays in the 130 to 150 area I am happy
Hey Bro
Do you like Playing chess
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  • #244,172
  • Aug 8, 2010 6:07pm Aug 8, 2010 6:07pm
Dollar Poised for Further Declines

BY CHRIS DIETERICH AND ROBERT FLINT

With the U.S. recovery clearly faltering, the dollar appears likely to go only one way against its major competitors: down.

Friday's nonfarm payrolls data for July came in well below economists' estimates. The release is the most glaring setback in a recent string of reports that cast further doubt on the strength of the recovery in the world's biggest economy for the second half of 2010.

The chances the Federal Reserve will deploy new measures to support the economy—mere murmurs at midweek—have increased. Tuesday's rate decision and accompanying statement will take center stage in framing investor sentiment toward the greenback.


http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000...LEFTTopNewsInt
Probability Professor
  • #244,173
  • Edited 6:40pm Aug 8, 2010 6:30pm | Edited 6:40pm
Quoting malcolmb14
lol ... of course that is exactly what I am saying .

That 1000 point drop in dj was not caused by someone pressing the billion button.. there is no billion button . It was caused by a hedge fund manipulating the market. What happened to uj , gu and eu on that day did they stay in 50 pip range ???

also if no one bank cannot control currency market please explain this ...200 pip drop end of asia , 2 hours before london started moving.

We'll have to agree to disagree about a "hedge fund manipulating the market" for a 1000 point drop in DJIA.

Putting that aside to talk about abnormal, large moves in FX.

I didn't say that for short periods of time banks could not make a small push to trigger many stops in a low volume time of day. They did before and they'll do it again. I said for an extended period of time in a free market (PBOC is a manipulator). History has shown central banks trying to impose their will on the FX markets and losing. Intervention only works when they can sway (scare) enough market participants to reverse the trend. The CB's (or any other bank) can not do it themselves.
  • #244,174
  • Aug 8, 2010 6:40pm Aug 8, 2010 6:40pm
i spoke to many professional traders about that day .

The consensus was that it was a shot across the bow from GS , only they would be able to do that . The guys that I spoke to said that all of their systems had fail safes on and something like entering a billion instead of a million would and could never happen.

remember what was going on at that time ? GS was being investigated by the SEC .... what happened to that anyways ? after the dj dropped 1000 point in a day seems they got a small fine , slap on the wrist and we never heard about those charges or investigation in the media again ....

you want to wonder about market manipulation .... how about the fact that back in 2008 GS got rid of their competition ,( why were lehamn and bear stearns not bailed out like GS and the banks were ) and can now do what ever they want in the markets. What other big players are there out there ?

Quoting Pickensrulz
We'll have to agree to disagree about a "hedge fund manipulating the market" for a 1000 point drop in DJIA....
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #244,175
  • Aug 8, 2010 6:45pm Aug 8, 2010 6:45pm
I wouldn't put anything past GS. I know that they take the term "playing hardball" to a new level.

What I am saying is that one hedge fund didn't move the market. I guess it's symmantics. Yes, GS might have scared lots of other funds into selling. However, GS didn't move the market themselves. It's a fine line but the point I am trying to make is that no single fund has the resources to move the market like that. I do see your point though....
  • #244,176
  • Aug 8, 2010 7:05pm Aug 8, 2010 7:05pm
From my sight those guys are associated together to spread the doubts about "manipulation". At the same time GS took a really large position on put option Universa Investments did the same.

They are coordinate...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/May_6,_2010_flash_crash

Quoting Pickensrulz
However, GS didn't move the market themselves. It's a fine line but the point I am trying to make is that no single fund has the resources to move the market like that. I do see your point though....
"Flip that coin!"
  • #244,177
  • Edited 7:32pm Aug 8, 2010 7:21pm | Edited 7:32pm
Quoting malcolmb14
i spoke to many professional traders about that day .

The consensus was that it was a shot across the bow from GS , only they would be able to do that . The guys that I spoke to said that all of their systems had fail safes on and something like entering a billion instead of a million would and could never happen.

remember what was going on at that time ? GS was being investigated by the SEC .... what happened to that anyways ? after the dj dropped 1000 point in a day seems they got a small fine , slap on the wrist and we never heard about those...
It was high frequency trading. Probably from a handful of the big players. They said that it wasn't someone putting in billion instead of million. What I suspect is that it WAS someone making a mistake on a high frequency trading algorithm. I saw a link to someone doing pattern analysis on the nyse and they were able to prove beyond a shadow of a doubt that high frequency traders are gaming the system. Usually it happens extremely fast (fractions of a second) and in tiny amounts repeated over and over thousands of times a minute. Someone somewhere dropped a decimal point or two on their algorithm and it had a chain effect on the other high frequency traders. But this is not something ANYONE wants to talk about publicly because they don't want the gov't to step in to stop it which exactly what they have been talking about doing.
  • #244,178
  • Aug 8, 2010 7:29pm Aug 8, 2010 7:29pm
Quoting Pickensrulz
Sigh...central banks are not regular market players. Central bank policy obviously has ramifications but central bankers regularly state they just don't want irregular price movement.
I edited this and removed the 'central' part but you had already commented. But then you disagree with that too.

btw....the earth is round. Look forward to your post saying it's flat.
  • #244,179
  • Aug 8, 2010 7:54pm Aug 8, 2010 7:54pm
Quoting pip_daddy
It was high frequency trading....
that makes sense .. thanks
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  • #244,180
  • Aug 8, 2010 8:39pm Aug 8, 2010 8:39pm
Quoting pip_daddy
It was high frequency trading....

lol there was no "mistake" that day.....people will believe anything they are told. Ohh then the sec puts a "stop trading rule" into effect if a stock has dropped more than 10% or something like that......... sounds like theyre preparing.
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