DislikedAnd I love responses like these and yours Malcomb. These "certainties" are anything but certain. I am not so naive as to not think that. I speak with only my educated opinion, obviously. Verbage is for entertainment purpose. And who knows, I might just be right.
And I said in 2011 is when the dollar will trend down. I am not a pro like u, but I think that means g/u will go up.Ignored
I see pro's in FX markets and particularly politicians as great manipulators.
I think Bernanke & Co. will do all they can to talk down the USD trying to inflate their enormous debts and stimulate their economy.
Some preliminary results can already be seen in the recovery of the "Baltic Dry Index" an important indicator to me.
Interest rates in US are at historic lows now and as we all know changes in them compared to other economies (differentials) have great influence in fx trends.
I believe 2011 will therefor be a phase of large increases in US interest rates a period where I do not see dollar trending down.
Of course these fundamental thoughts have no relevance for the short term trend and could be totally wrong if recovery will not occur, but for the long term I'll be looking at UJ as an ideal pair for a great bull trend if interest rate differentials develop the way I described above.
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself