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  • #541
  • Aug 2, 2010 10:50pm Aug 2, 2010 10:50pm
As a quick update if price had pushed slightly higher between my entries at 6 & 7 (around the 17th Feb), I would probably look to diversify here due to the reason that the main trend looked like it was changing from down to up.
  • #542
  • Aug 2, 2010 11:32pm Aug 2, 2010 11:32pm
Hello Graeme,

Here's my homework. For a volatile pair like gpb/jpy I will use breakout near the .000 level. From your chart I have 8 short and 7 long. If stop loss at the .000 mark all the shorts are still alive. 5 longs stopped out and 2 long still surviving.
Total pips for short 4,394 less approx 500 pips stopped out equals to 3,894. This excludes the floating profit of 200 pips from long which is still alive.
For diversification I would probably clear s7,s8,b6 and b7 if the price breach 142.
For your comments "Sifu"
Thank you once again.
chonghm
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  • #543
  • Aug 3, 2010 12:09am Aug 3, 2010 12:09am
Hello Graeme,

Just to add further for this exercise my stop loss is a minimum of 100 pips or towards the next 0.000 price. Price not brought to be, even when the trade is in profit for this homework only.

Thanks,
chonghm
  • #544
  • Aug 3, 2010 1:22am Aug 3, 2010 1:22am
Have based my trades on T/L breaks this time instead of S/R breaks.
Feels harder to set the T/L's when bigger moves have occurred.
Was quite surprised as thought it would have been easier to produce entries.
20 trades over all for the 10Jan - 17Mar period.
At the RH edge of the chart @ about 138.70 had 3 buys remaining and 6 sells, based on the 2 parts/trade, 1 @+100 hard TP, both @-100 hard S/L.
Didnt count on moving the S/L to BE, cause other +100 part was expected (that word again) to TP.
Actually ended up with only 2 that didnt, so they were both -200SL trades.
Leaving 7 doing +100 & -100 = BE trades.

Did a "diversify" on the 10th trade. It was a sell @ 144.70 closed (at White bar) at 141.50 for +100 & +320 = +420pips.
Also a "diversify" on the 11th trade. A Buy @ 140.60, closed (at next white bar) at 142.50 for +100 & +190 = +290pips making total of 710pips banked.
Diversified because the drop on say the 4thFeb was too large to leave on the table & I already had 3 sell legs established. Plus the retrace was looking more like establishing for a bigger move up.
Then after the 143.50 resistance test & 143.00 test fail, I closed off the previous buy. Only had 1 there anyway, would have liked to have had more placed earlier in the bottom of the retrace, but couldnt spot tradable reasons without hindsight.
Probably should have held them longer, for "diversify" nere the RH edge.

Did my sums @ RH of chart @138.70+- ;
trade ---------- pt A pt B
3 sell @ 148.50 +100 +980
5 sell @ 147.00 +100 +830
8 sell @ 146.00 +100 +730
13 sell @ 141.60 +100 +290
14 sell @ 141.00 +100 +230
15 sell @ 139.30 +100 + 60
17 buy @ 133.50 +100 +520
18 buy @ 136.00 +100 +270
20 buy @ 137.70 +100 +100

Thats a pending total of 4010 pips. But as 890 is in buys & 3120 in sells, pips would go from side to side with price movement.

Not included is a couple of trades that I "shoulda" spotted, like the break down from the pennant flag that indicated the whole down trend.

Another later, a buy, from after the white oval. I think that bar is indicating the rise back up, so was mainly concentrating on buys. Was finding it hard again to justify trades. May have to focus more on the 00s (& maybe 50s). I did use them in a previous trading life.

cheers scalpz
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Target 2 : Stoploss in the green
  • #545
  • Aug 3, 2010 1:51am Aug 3, 2010 1:51am
Hello Graeme,

Apologies as this is slightly off-topic from the current discussion but would it be possible at some point later on in this thread to discuss how you manage all these positions. Using the last chart as an example (which is only a couple of months), most posters would have a total of 10-20 trades.

For me, keeping track of all those positions and being able to initially group them and then move them from one group to another (especially as the majority would be held for much longer) could become quite difficult.

Consequently, as are main role (after participating and taking trades) is to efficiently manage our positions, I for one would be grateful for any advice (at some point in the future) on how do deal with this.

Kind Regards,
Chorlton
  • #546
  • Aug 3, 2010 2:35am Aug 3, 2010 2:35am
Quoting pipEASY
Game rules


All you need to do is choose 8 random numbers. Must be 'random'

Add the pips together and please post a reply in the thread.

Please note you could be unlucky at picking the random numbers and still have a loss at the end. Please consider this as close to real life but the worst case scenario. Almost pure random with completely no control.
A bit late to the game:
I chose 2 4 5 7 8 9 11 13, specifically ignoring 1. Resulting in a loss of -100!
Minka
Loss of opportunity is preferable to loss of capital
  • #547
  • Edited 6:02am Aug 3, 2010 2:59am | Edited 6:02am
Hi,

Here you have my chart and my results. My rules were to enter on breakout of T/L and price at .00 with 2 positions, one with TP at +100, both with S/L at -100, and BE on second position when first TP reached.

The results were:

1 +100/BE
2 -200
3 -200
4 -200
5 +100/BE
6 +100/BE
7 +100/BE
8 -200
9 -200
10 +700 (open)
11 +100/BE
12 +100/BE
13 +200 (open)
14 +100/BE
15 +100/BE
16 +100/BE
17 -200
18 +200 (open)

TOTAL: 800 pips

Maybe my entries look a bit aggresive but when the T/L is broken I don't know if it will be an small retracement or a new trend so I just enter.

From the other charts I see a lot of explanations that looks to me "after the facts", if you try to trade the chart like on real time, there are a lot of possible entries and since this is a very volatile pair you end up with a lot of BE's.

Most of my profits come from trade number 7, but since the price is going up I'm starting to lose them, and the problem is that I don't have any big leg on the buy side since the price closed most of them at BE.

Honestly, a very good example chart to see the challenges of the method.

Regards,
Fernando.
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  • #548
  • Edited 5:47am Aug 3, 2010 4:52am | Edited 5:47am
Test please the indicator for automatic 00-lines drawing. For changes in chart: for refreshing you must wait until the next tick...

A small improvement in the indicator: there are now 20 additional lines drawn above and below the visible lines grid. Please reload the indicator.
.
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File Type: mq4 smSpaced_00Lines.mq4   4 KB | 1,188 downloads
  • #549
  • Aug 3, 2010 5:09am Aug 3, 2010 5:09am
Quoting harihebat
hi graeme,

this is my chart, please make advise to it
reason i took a diversification because after ranging period, there is suddenly movement of price almost 400 pips, i feel there is something happen in next price




regards,

hari
Good evening, hari

Good.

Nice, clean, spaced out interpretation.

Simplicity of just trendline break with .00 entries.

Im relieved to see that you did not try too many times during the range.

Nice mix of buy and sell but going with flow. Good Good.

I suggest all traders to try enter 2 positions at once with -100 stop loss on both positions and close 1 position @ 1:1. Leave the other remaining position with same stop loss but let it run.

I would have added buy position instead of sell position in the middle of the range at 1.45. Only a small suggestion.

Good.

Sincerely,

Graeme
  • #550
  • Aug 3, 2010 5:13am Aug 3, 2010 5:13am
I wonder what whould Graeme say about Jacko anti-hedge method. If trades were in line with overall trend it would not harm the .00 entry method to reenter later when trend resume after taken as out at loss.
  • #551
  • Aug 3, 2010 5:22am Aug 3, 2010 5:22am
Quoting ozziedave
Hi Graeme,


Here is my take on the second chart.

All short entries are in magenta and all long entries are in green. Two lots entered at each position, +100 assumes 1 lot taken out at 1:1 and second lot taken out at BE. -200 both lots taken out at hard SL of -100. As I see it only entries A, B and C survive to what becomes the bottom of the down trend at 132.300. I know that price retraces to entry point A but I would have held this position based on the fact that I recognized the up wave as an Elliott wave 4th wave. So in this case I cheated...

Good chart Dave

Im glad to see the simplicity and the usuage of just s/r lines.

Its also good to see that you enter 2 positions with 1 position @ 1:1 and the remaining left to run but with bigger breathing space. Hope other traders could also you this little nifty tactic to an advantage. This 2 position entry method is far more reliable on higher timeframe.

13 entries over 2months. Nicely spaced out.

Minimal drawdown but potential of high profit.

Good Good

Sincerely,

Graeme
  • #552
  • Aug 3, 2010 5:29am Aug 3, 2010 5:29am
Quoting pillager
Hi Graeme,

here is my take on the 2nd chart.

Thanks.

Attachment
Nice entries.

Well spaced out with good, sensible coverage of both up and down.

Nothing wrong with your interpretation but may I suggest you try using 2 position entries. Then your first 3 sell positions would have all survived.

If you use 2 position entries you increase the short term drawdown
However, you increase your potential profits exponentially as a position stopped out at -100 is static while a position growing could yield an infinity return. A very large difference in the long run.

If you have used 2 position entries, at least 2 out of 3 positions at the end would have survived price fluctuation.

Good.

Sincerely,

Graeme
  • #553
  • Aug 3, 2010 5:45am Aug 3, 2010 5:45am
Quoting mcornbill
Hi Graeme

This is conservative approach using nothing but the 4 hour time frame for EP. You will note I have a thing for ema's still, I like to play power pivot and pinbar EP's off ema's. I realise that they are lagging indicators but I feel they hold some worth.

In reality I would be looking for better EP's on the hourly.


Cheers
Mark
Good evening, mark

There is nothing wrong with your moving emas or your preference for pin bar. Pin bars are one of the sought after 'reliable' indication that are around. Personally, I do not look for them.

Good area to diversify, you would have replenished your trade capital and added few hundred realized profit into your balance and you would have kept at least the first or second or both of the larger legs intact.

I can see that you have a conservative approach in entries. Im slightly more aggressive and prepared to lose one or two more positions to have a scout/position in as early as possible. However, I do not try to have an early scout all the time as that would cause slightly more drawdown than preferred.

However, a successful early scout for me creates a huge difference in profits few weeks later. This is why I spend extra few hundred pips now with no worries as it will be worthwhile later on.

My only concern is that with conservative approach you do save unnecessary drawdowns but you are one of the last to arrive on the buffet table. Its give and take. With conservative approach the last bit of uptrend on that chart where the movement is up but moving in jigjag might cause bit of drawdown.

There is nothing wrong with your interpretation

Sincerely,

Graeme
  • #554
  • Aug 3, 2010 5:52am Aug 3, 2010 5:52am
Quoting Chorlton
Here are my reasons for entering trades:

1. Price bounced off Support and broke thru mini-resistance - Go LONG
2. Large Range bar from Resistance - Go SHORT
3. Large Range bar - Break down from Support - Go SHORT
4. Large Range bar - Break down from Support - Go SHORT
5. Price in Mini-Range (suggests change of trend) followed by Breakout
from Resistance - Go LONG
6. Narrow Range - Breakout from Resistance - Go LONG
7. *Risky Trade* Downbar with long downward wick hitting uptrend support
followed by upbar - Go LONG
8. Breakdown thru support (triangle...
Thank you chorlton for a nice detailed response.

I looked at your explanation and chart closely.

Im glad you use channels.

I would like to work closer with you and pm you later this evening as to why.

Your effort is greatly appreciated and I hope I can help you little more through pm.

Sincerely,

Graeme
  • #555
  • Aug 3, 2010 5:56am Aug 3, 2010 5:56am
Quoting chonghm
Hello Graeme,

Here's my homework. For a volatile pair like gpb/jpy I will use breakout near the .000 level. From your chart I have 8 short and 7 long. If stop loss at the .000 mark all the shorts are still alive. 5 longs stopped out and 2 long still surviving.
Total pips for short 4,394 less approx 500 pips stopped out equals to 3,894. This excludes the floating profit of 200 pips from long which is still alive.
For diversification I would probably clear s7,s8,b6 and b7 if the price breach 142.
For your comments "Sifu"
Thank you once again.
chonghm...
Good evening chonghm

Thank you for the detailed response.

Please dont take this the wrong way but I will pm you later. I like the usuage of your trendlines but im confident that I can add more convenience into your trading/focal interpretation.

Sincerely,

Graeme
  • #556
  • Edited 7:08pm Aug 3, 2010 6:06am | Edited 7:08pm
Quoting Chorlton
Hello Graeme,

Apologies as this is slightly off-topic from the current discussion but would it be possible at some point later on in this thread to discuss how you manage all these positions. Using the last chart as an example (which is only a couple of months), most posters would have a total of 10-20 trades.

For me, keeping track of all those positions and being able to initially group them and then move them from one group to another (especially as the majority would be held for much longer) could become quite difficult.

Consequently,...

Good question, Chorlton

Managing positions is very simple.

I have a large journal book always opened.

It has many columns,

First column - group name
Second column - pair of currency
Third - date bought
Fourth - entry price

Edit: I should also add, I dedicate a whole page to each group of positions. Its not all mixed up. And then once every 6months I would reconcile all positions for a clearer viewing.

Then the rest of columns are empty.

All I do is once a while, I write down the current market price in the empty column and use a ruler and red pen to cross off if current price came to entry price. Thats it

Sincerely,

Graeme
  • #557
  • Aug 3, 2010 6:13am Aug 3, 2010 6:13am
Quoting Minka
A bit late to the game:
I chose 2 4 5 7 8 9 11 13, specifically ignoring 1. Resulting in a loss of -100!
Minka
Good evening Jana

Im glad to see that someone lost.

I hope all readers are reading this as this is important.

Your -100 loss is fantastic!

You had 8 entries and your realized drawdown is only 100 pips for a potential of making thousands of pips.

Many traders would have -3000 pips or more drawdown to make few hundred pips.

Can all readers see that we are at the mercy of the market and its random outcome however we can do things to swing favour into our side.

Your -100 pip loss is not the end of market/life, it continues on. Im sure if the game continued on for few more weeks it would be a different story.

An unsuccessful trader that lost -3000 pips (realized) loss to comeback and make all the loss and profit of 300 pips. That is 3300 pips he had to make to come back as profit.

Pros prepared to lose much less -600 pips (reazlied) loss to comeback and make all the loss and profit 300 pips. This is only 900 pips he had to make. Huge huge difference.

Sincerely,

Graeme
  • #558
  • Edited 6:30am Aug 3, 2010 6:16am | Edited 6:30am
Quoting scalpz
Have based my trades on T/L breaks this time instead of S/R breaks.
Feels harder to set the T/L's when bigger moves have occurred.
Was quite surprised as thought it would have been easier to produce entries.
20 trades over all for the 10Jan - 17Mar period.
At the RH edge of the chart @ about 138.70 had 3 buys remaining and 6 sells, based on the 2 parts/trade, 1 @+100 hard TP, both @-100 hard S/L.
Didnt count on moving the S/L to BE, cause other +100 part was expected (that word again) to TP.
Actually ended up with only 2 that didnt, so they were...
Good.

I like the trendlines and the usuage of pennant.

Good detail.

Edit: Dear behr. Apologies to address you in a post that was meant for someone else but I would like to let you know that your focal interpretation is very similar to scalpz. Nothing wrong with your focal interpretation.

Please refer to my answer chart soon

Sincerely,

Graeme
  • #559
  • Edited Aug 4, 2010 1:37am Aug 3, 2010 9:43am | Edited Aug 4, 2010 1:37am
Thank you all for the contribution with chart 2.

There is no right or wrong answers and everyone has done well.

The only differences in the charts are that some traders have a clearer picture of the market price while some traders are imposing lines onto chart to bend the markets sentiments into their own personal view. The difference is that the trader with clearer interpretation is simply following the flow.

Please do not take any of this as an attack on your personal ego as I stated above no one was right or wrong. And I hope everyone continue to participate.

This is my focal interpretation. Im not right or wrong.

Below is what happened in live trading back then. Just for clarity I only posted sell positions in this chart. Buy positions below that. I took 4 sell entries/scouts. 1 breakeven and 3 winners. At least 2000+ pips from just the scouts.

Pennants creates an area that needs to be broken out. Pennant lines are basically trendlines but you are purposefully creating an area for the price to breakout.

http://img706.imageshack.us/img706/8153/58168065.png

The chart below might look like cherry picked but assure all readers that when I draw pennants on the downtrend and I tried to enter a buy, I simply dont have any entries to enter.

I had only 2 buy entries and both breakeven.

This makes my total 6 entries with 3 breakeven and 3 winners and potential profit of 2000+ pips for this chart.

http://img828.imageshack.us/img828/9397/h2b.png

These charts shows a very close resemblance to what I did back then in my live trading. It might be confusing or unsettling to notice that there is hardly anything on the chart and yet still be profitable but if readers please think about it you will find a new discovery here.

Sincerely,

Graeme
  • #560
  • Aug 3, 2010 11:34am Aug 3, 2010 11:34am
Given :

1. We enter 2 positions at each arrow
2. Both position -100 pips hard stop loss
3. 1 position closed @ 1:1 and the remaining position let it run with SL still at -100


I closed all Short positions at the X because price had broken a previous High. The Long position f2 is still open at the end of this chart.

Total Pips made 1708.

I appreciate all the time you are taking with this.
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