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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #242,221
  • Aug 1, 2010 7:35am Aug 1, 2010 7:35am
Quoting forex_growth
so when you enter do you have a pre conceived view of TP or do you play it by ear depending on technicals like youre saying? do you mind me asking if you use SL ?

also what for you determines PA.. I thought I had a relative understanding of it but it seems by the way everyone talks as though Im missing something LOL

to me it would mean one or two technical indicators combined with possible candle changes to create a better opportunity to enter or exit.. am I on the right track?

thanks

As to TP, yeah I usually keep an eye on a few levels, but just stay in as long as the PA gives me reason to.

PA has nothing to do with indy's, it is tape reading, the interaction of the price with levels. Judging how the price responds, candle patterns and indy's are a result of the PA, not the other way around.
  • #242,222
  • Aug 1, 2010 7:40am Aug 1, 2010 7:40am
Quoting ozpips
Hi all, well my trading sucks in general but what my charts indicate is that this is going to tank from the open. UK aint going that flash, and maybe this move was just to get things back to fair value. I can't see this penetrating the weekly wall or top of daily TL so easily without going down some what first. If I had kohunas I'd short it straight off the open with no stop.


too bad market movers dont care about a "fair value"....prices go where they say, in the next year we could see 1.90 or 1.35.
  • #242,223
  • Edited 8:53am Aug 1, 2010 7:46am | Edited 8:53am
Quoting malcolmb14
I blocked you from my forum as you posted a bunch of rubbish in Rastafarian or some crap with another guy.
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...64#post3885064
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=1441

I got many complaints as the thread starter. Post something of use and stop posting gibberish. The reason I started the thread and stopped posting in other threads is I was getting fed up with the crap, guys you like you post. The only way I could get rid of your crap posts was to put you...
good on u malc..f**k em..to many in FF only look at the bad..my take on it is very simple, they are needed without them market would be very difficult to extract corn

focus on the postive

we as people focus on right or wrong then we havent got a clue about trading!!! imho
  • #242,224
  • Aug 1, 2010 8:11am Aug 1, 2010 8:11am
Quoting mfoste1
too bad market movers dont care about a "fair value"....prices go where they say, in the next year we could see 1.90 or 1.35.
well...actually they do care too...only thing is they take the price to where they think that "fair value" should be...
Hear the music before the song is over ...
  • #242,225
  • Aug 1, 2010 8:26am Aug 1, 2010 8:26am
Quoting cloggie
The 50 fib on Cable is the momentum fib, once it goes, it will keep going. So looking at 92 another way, once 1.8031 went the road was clear to 1.3873, which it reached. And yes it did take till sep 96 to get the 50 back on the downmove, which it reached almost perfectly. A 4 year 50 retrace move on the monthly chart was only 44 bars, which if you scale it down to the hourly or H4 for a similar play is not bad at all. And it did test the 61.8 1.6195 perfectly in oct 94 and feb-jun 95. That 61.8 did form a nice resistance which only took a few bars...

Putting that in the books as a keeper!

Thanks for all you do,

Dr. D.
  • #242,226
  • Aug 1, 2010 8:26am Aug 1, 2010 8:26am
Quoting cloggie
Really? UK GDP holding steady while the US dropped by 50% (nice little fib retrace), confidence dropped and durable goods dropped like a brick while the unemployement hasn't changed except for Obamarama's sensus workers oh and the largest increase in debt ever and no plan to deal with it (why do you think that Moody is thinking about dropping the US). I am not saying that the UK economy is rosy, just that it is floating a little shallower in the shite pile.

Fair points. I'm only learning as I go but these head lines from today aren't going to help the risk trades much early this week I feel:


Greece will be a war zone, Sect of Revolutionaries warns tourists
Posted:
Security forces fear wave of terror as austerity programme provokes strikes, protests, violence - and assassination.

UK coalition budget faces legal challenge
Posted:
Commons vote could be overturned in the courts if MPs were not told that bulk of the £8 bln cutbacks would target women.

UK house market to stay flat until 2013
Posted:
Well that's what CEBR thinks.

US unemployment probably rose as jobs scarce
Posted:
Bloomberg US economy preview.

China’s manufacturing growth is weakest in 17 months
Posted:
Chinese PMI falls to 51.2 in July from 52.1 in June.
  • #242,227
  • Edited 8:43am Aug 1, 2010 8:32am | Edited 8:43am
Quoting ozpips
Fair points. I'm only learning as I go but these head lines from today aren't going to help the risk trades much early this week I feel:...
Like I said, the UK is not out of the woods yet by a long shot, but it doesn't have to for cable to recover, it just needs to stay one step ahead of the US, and it is doing that nicely. Cable is becoming a carry trade. So you need to see the fundamentals in perspective if you use them as a guide for longer term goals and direction. The UK is in a unique position as it's majority of debt is long term, while the US depends on the Fed buying it's own debt and they are held down by the euro.

All I was trying to get across is not to judge fair value based on a bit of bad news out of the UK, try to figure out how the market sees it and there are some good solid fundamental signals for a longer term sterling recovery.

Comparing the basic fundamentals between the UK and the US, the UK has the upper hand right now. The UK is addressing its debt, it is reducing its cost, it is increasing its tax, none of which are addressed right now in the US, on the contrary. The US still has a jobless recovery fueled by increasing the national debt without addressing the fundamental underlying problems. Unless the US ends the Bush era tax cuts and addresses the increases in public spending focusing instead on the private sector it is not looking good as reflected in their GDP, durable goods, unemployment and confidence figures.

The Greek news and the US news is actually good for the UK, so not sure why it is in your list, it does not further your argument, quite the contrary.

Longer term do I see Sterling recovering further, yes I do. But price never moves in a straight line and there are opportunities in both direction that I will try to take advantage of (I don't position trade in the summer). Are we due for a retrace on H4 and the Daily, yes we are. Is it going to happen tomorrow? Who cares, when it does I will trade it. As long as the bias is long there is more money to be made in joining the trend then there is in anticipating the retrace.
  • #242,228
  • Aug 1, 2010 8:47am Aug 1, 2010 8:47am
The daily chart with the beginning of August seeming to be a bit of a pivotal point.

Some strength into the beginning, a little weakness to follow, yearly cycle.

Just and observation.....
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Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #242,229
  • Aug 1, 2010 8:50am Aug 1, 2010 8:50am
Quote
The Greek news and the US news is actually good for the UK, so not sure...

And spoken like a true professional
And boy do I have a lot to learn....
It's sleep time for me now but my call for this morning is 50 pips straight down.
Best of luck and enjoy your day...
  • #242,230
  • Aug 1, 2010 8:53am Aug 1, 2010 8:53am
Quoting ozpips
And spoken like a true professional
And boy do I have a lot to learn....
It's sleep time for me now but my call for this morning is 50 pips straight down.
Best of luck and enjoy your day...

At least one bit of good news, your countryman won the Hungarian GP and takes the lead overall.
  • #242,231
  • Aug 1, 2010 9:02am Aug 1, 2010 9:02am
Well, as with last week, I will not be around much on the Forum for a while again. Hope in the mean time you all make some great pips.

I didn't trade much last week, as Pound was not really in my trading zone.. In my opinion it was to high for any more major moves up and not wanting to relinquish any move to the downside so we could buy at a better price until Friday

Here is my same 1HR chart I have been trading with yet again, Weekly direction long and price coming back nicely to the Center line of the 100BB and then giving us a nice Bull candle. Was able to just catch this trade before leaving the house. So.. Along with my wins on USDCHF and a huge win on GBPCHF, and then this trade on Friday, left me with a very very very nice week indeed. Since this trade was with my trading direction for the week, It was worth some added risk for a very nice profit indeed.

Green pips next week and I will try and stop in when I can

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"Keep your eyes on the helpers" - Mr. Rogers
  • #242,232
  • Aug 1, 2010 9:03am Aug 1, 2010 9:03am
Quoting fourxtrader
Putting that in the books as a keeper!

Thanks for all you do,

Dr. D.

Looking at the current bigger picture from a fib perspective. The 08 move down retraced to the 50 (6853) perfectly in summer 09, it held and she tried to return to the low, which failed. We are now taking another stab at that 50 having passed the 23.6 at 51080. We are at weekly resistance of 5707, which I mentioned in an earlier post based on intermediate fib play. So for this Sterling recovery to progress we need 6073 to at least test, which will open the way to another 50 test at 6853. The game play for this week will be of the weekly resistance, if that holds we are looking at 5523 and a test of the 50 retrace on the daily, if it goes we are looking at 5831. The daily trend is still solidly up and if the weekly resistance holds with a test of 5523 will only give the big boys a good place to keep the trend going.
  • #242,233
  • Aug 1, 2010 9:13am Aug 1, 2010 9:13am
Winner must be complacent and indifferent
  • #242,234
  • Aug 1, 2010 9:35am Aug 1, 2010 9:35am
Thank you for all the info you shared on friday. I took your advice and have been putting boxes on a bar chart this weekend to get a feel for how price moves. It is amazing how using the boxes helps to get a view of price movement.

My question is, does the information you shared apply mostly to the gbpusd as far as frankie fake outs or does the same thing happen with other pairs?
  • #242,235
  • Aug 1, 2010 9:40am Aug 1, 2010 9:40am
Me too! Thanks Cloggie!!!
Quoting fourxtrader
Putting that in the books as a keeper!

Thanks for all you do,

Dr. D.
  • #242,236
  • Aug 1, 2010 9:52am Aug 1, 2010 9:52am
Quoting mdiz2
Thank you for all the info you shared on friday. I took your advice and have been putting boxes on a bar chart this weekend to get a feel for how price moves. It is amazing how using the boxes helps to get a view of price movement.

My question is, does the information you shared apply mostly to the gbpusd as far as frankie fake outs or does the same thing happen with other pairs?

All currencies have the same in some form, it is just the nature of the market. Franky puts its overnight orders out to market when it opens and London will do the same, the FX market is just build around London, that's where the volume is. Lots of Asian customers will collect their needs for currencies, both from a order perspective and from a speculator perspective and use the overlap with Franky and London to clear them. London just gives traders the volume to fill orders. Price moves due to the hot potato principle, orders get passed around and arbritaged, therefor it moves, and for that to happen you need volume, the opens are great for identifying a break and join the flow.

Breakout trading, if done properly, is very profitable for two reasons, one you join the crowd and two it keeps you out of trades when she is just consolidating or ranging.
  • #242,237
  • Aug 1, 2010 10:02am Aug 1, 2010 10:02am
Quoting cloggie
All currencies have the same in some form, it is just the nature of the market. Franky puts its overnight orders out to market when it opens and London will do the same, the FX market is just build around London, that's where the volume is. Lots of Asian customers will collect their needs for currencies, both from a order perspective and from a speculator perspective and use the overlap with Franky and London to clear them. London just gives traders the volume to fill orders. Price moves due to the hot potato principle, orders get passed around...
Thank you, I hope you keep sharing your wisdom, you are a wealth of information and I truly appreciate you taking the time to share with newer traders like myself.
  • #242,238
  • Aug 1, 2010 10:24am Aug 1, 2010 10:24am
Quoting mdiz2
Thank you, I hope you keep sharing your wisdom, you are a wealth of information and I truly appreciate you taking the time to share with newer traders like myself.
  • #242,239
  • Aug 1, 2010 10:32am Aug 1, 2010 10:32am
It does seem crazy that gbp/usd continues advancing. Maybe the market has faith in the coalitions plan to cut debt.
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  • #242,240
  • Aug 1, 2010 10:59am Aug 1, 2010 10:59am
thanks cloggie for all you have done to help these newbies but sooner or later they will need to come up with there own trading system, but good info to get them started working on there own trading system.
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