Cable Update (GBPUSD)

But, throughout this current move there have been
multiple pullbacks meeting the 50 fib, until now.
But....

Dr. D.

But, here's the most recent move that's just
short of 600 pips (598) without a nice retrace.
But....

Dr. D.

But, looking over the past year, a Jan - Mar '10 move (1676 pips)
produced 5 nice retraces to the 50 fibo off of smaller moves
averaging ~515 pips (smallest 344 pips, largest 798 pips).

Even a Dec '09 move reached 834 pips before a 50 fibo retrace,
while it took 1171 pips in an Oct - Nov '09 move to bring a 50 fibo retrace.

Recently, an April 30 - May 07 move reached 915 pips before a retrace.

So.... why anticipate a significant pullback when smaller moves throughout
a developing trend satisfy the 50 fibo retrace.

On that basis, this could run forever or at least up to a 2 yr high
at 1.7041 or even back to the 20 yr high at 2.113.

But... (quoting digger) 'who cares as long as it moves.'

Dr. D.

But, Cloggie what happened here?

Here's a move that plummeted to 6,047 pips over a 6 mo
period back in '92. (9/01/92 2.0010 - 2/01/93 1.4063)

It took nearly 4 yrs to reach a 50 fibo retrace. (12/01/96).

Dr. D.

I blocked you from my forum as you posted a bunch of rubbish in Rastafarian or some crap with another guy.
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...64#post3885064
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=1441

I got many complaints as the thread starter. Post something of use and stop posting gibberish. The reason I started the thread and stopped posting in other threads is I was getting fed up with the crap, guys you like you post. The only way I could get rid of your crap posts was to put you on my ignore list. If you look at the title of the thread i started it is called VSA ... post something of use in relation to that and you are welcome to post away.

Go back and study my charts and posts, bet I am 80% right In my predictions and in my books 80% right is pretty damn good. This week I was bullish on eu and gu stated so clearly and the reasons why , not a bunch of crap as you post.

And when I am wrong I admit I am wrong , not like 99 % of the other traders on here that make 50 % per week on their accounts no mater even if gu is in a 20 pip range for the week ....and never have a losing trade.

I wonder how many private messages a plonker like you has had saying thanks for helping me ... I bet none , whereas the biggest Idiot on ff has had 2 this week alone.

As for being right or wrong ...remember this posting and conversation ? you were talking about an inverse head and shoulders and target 1.06 on jpy..at 88 and due to fact that it has not happened yet , and in fact is now below your intial entry you deleted your post , however traces of it are seen in mine , now who is the idiot ! ...and where did jpy futures hit now 1.1585 as per my post.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=1432

enough said ,

You may be a great trader for all I know , but your posts of are no use to anyone except your self , likely written when bored.

OK back to the ignore list you go.

as for my comment could go to 6500 ..a little wrong , 6300 is 78.6.

There is a ton of overhead resistance right now and even if gu is going higher this supply will make gu very choppy on the way up with sudden drops in low liquidity and frankie fake outs.

A breakout of es 1115 are will take it to 1150 to 1180 , and that alone may take gu into 6300 zone.

However it is not going to be in a straight line. and could fail at weekly r 1.5700 to 1.5850

It's very good and interesting information. Thank you.

AND Don't worry about other foolish traders :-)

#242190

Short from 1.57
Cable is at The top side of a 4h big channel, can't post The pic now cause i'm posting with my iPhone

nice trade imo, prolly it will tank 200 to 250 pips to test LTL, last move up was 600 pips w.o taking breath.

as an additional information, on daily chart audusd formed a perfect gartley pattern for those who are interested, it will prolly start tanking from these levels for at least 300-350 pips.

why do you think so?
I'm waiting 1.585 (near) course of fibo on W1 61.8

with bearish divergence on CCi

Not going to even think about touching this Pair this week,

There is always next week.

Mal...I'm seeing a similarity with the M30 friday's bars 12:30-13:00 GMT and 20:00-20:30 GMT...Are you able to also detect anything conspicuous on those two bars with your studies...any aberrations whatsoever?

The 50 fib on Cable is the momentum fib, once it goes, it will keep going. So looking at 92 another way, once 1.8031 went the road was clear to 1.3873, which it reached. And yes it did take till sep 96 to get the 50 back on the downmove, which it reached almost perfectly. A 4 year 50 retrace move on the monthly chart was only 44 bars, which if you scale it down to the hourly or H4 for a similar play is not bad at all. And it did test the 61.8 1.6195 perfectly in oct 94 and feb-jun 95. That 61.8 did form a nice resistance which only took a few bars to go. Of course the 92 drop was caused by withdrawing from the ERM, but still fibs came into play. (I bet you Soros and Lewis added to their positions when the drop passed the 50 and again once the low went. Which in itself is the hardest for noobs to get their head around; buying the high or selling the low, they just expect a retrace)

Look back on Friday's NY open move, the lTL held the price up and once the 50 went (5603) we made it all the way to the 161.8 (5720). Now have a look at the retraces within the last few weeks, the price retraces to the 50 once a daily high is formed quite a few times. I am not saying that fibs are the key secret to trading Cable, but she does like daily fibs and they keep coming back. Only one more tool in the tool box really. Look at the last retrace on the daily 4947-5470, it retraced inititally to the 50, which held was tested once more, failed briefly (due to news spike) only to bounce of the 38 and extended close to the 150 (12 pips to go). Cable will keep doing that, it just a matter of finding the right fib levels and keep an eye on the PA once a daily high is reached or once a daily hi/lo is reached during the Franky/London session and then seeing where NY takes her, using the intermediates as SR's to determine whether to stay in or take your profits and always keeping an eye on the 50, once that goes either way your trade is looking pretty good. Purely as a fib play, we need to see if the open tonight gives us a retrace to 5648 on the hourly. Will I be trading this tonight? No, I will keep an eye on it just because it is something to do, but I rarely trade the Sunday open, bit thin for my liking. But if we see a retrace to 5635 tonight, based on the 50 then a franky fake tomorrow and a nice LO will give us another test of the high, so that is one scenario I will be looking at for tomorrow. IF that scenario does play out I will be looking for 5760 and 5785, but let's see where TY takes us first before I am going to commit.

Looking at the weekly now, we had a break of 5522 so fib wise we need to keep an eye on 5829, which beautifully coincides with earlier SR of 5831 on the weekly.

So is every day a fib day, no but it is part of my planning during the Franky to see if the fib levels are respected and if so then we could have a nice fib setup, if they are not, I will keep them on my charts just as a secondary play while I figure out what the big boys really want and what they are looking at for the day. You'd be surprised how often a perceived failure of fib play comes back into action once the orders have gone through for the LO. I really like the days where fib levels coincide with either pivot levels or major SR's on H1/H4, then once the 50 goes it is like taking candy from a baby. The 50 just reinforces the old adage to keep buying the rally.

hey bro great analysis thanks! really weird as Ive just spent the evening reading about good ol leonardo!!

just a quick one - when you say 161.8 you talking about fib extensions? do you often use this and 127 as possible exit or take profit points?

thanks

Leonardo worked for the guys who started FX, go figure. As to targets, I trade differently as a day trader, more of an "if, then if" so while I am in a trade I will always look for reasons to stay in, not for reasons to get out, so fib extensions are part of that and I judge the PA around them as reason to stay in.

Hi all, well my trading sucks in general but what my charts indicate is that this is going to tank from the open. UK aint going that flash, and maybe this move was just to get things back to fair value. I can't see this penetrating the weekly wall or top of daily TL so easily without going down some what first. If I had kohunas I'd short it straight off the open with no stop.

so when you enter do you have a pre conceived view of TP or do you play it by ear depending on technicals like youre saying? do you mind me asking if you use SL ?

also what for you determines PA.. I thought I had a relative understanding of it but it seems by the way everyone talks as though Im missing something LOL

to me it would mean one or two technical indicators combined with possible candle changes to create a better opportunity to enter or exit.. am I on the right track?

thanks

Really? UK GDP holding steady while the US dropped by 50% (nice little fib retrace), confidence dropped and durable goods dropped like a brick while the unemployement hasn't changed except for Obamarama's sensus workers oh and the largest increase in debt ever and no plan to deal with it (why do you think that Moody is thinking about dropping the US). I am not saying that the UK economy is rosy, just that it is floating a little shallower in the shite pile.

I'm still not happy they won't let me change my username. I'm usually in the Euro thread but I made this chart because it's so droolicious.