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  • #274,301
  • Jul 22, 2010 3:23pm Jul 22, 2010 3:23pm
I have a small short going here and my stop is at B/E. I will not hide my trades until they are over. I will tell you also that if we get a break of 1.2880 I will add more for a quick 25-30 pips or so.

Quoting bksujal
anyone short?
  • #274,302
  • Jul 22, 2010 3:24pm Jul 22, 2010 3:24pm
I am also long right now. U-CAD
  • #274,303
  • Jul 22, 2010 3:26pm Jul 22, 2010 3:26pm
Quoting Awesome
http://www.cnbc.com/id/38357452
OK - thank you for that. In other words - nobody knows exactly when it will be launched - the "stress test results"...

There are ambiguous, conflicting messages about the time shedule. For example - I have read in a French Newspaper yesterday (I think it was "Le Monde") that it should be at about 8:00 - 9:00 CET in the morning. Prior to European Bourses will have been opened its trading floors.

Exciting...
2013-07-31 Today's Phrase of the Day: Hold off from any recycle bin experts
  • #274,304
  • Jul 22, 2010 3:27pm Jul 22, 2010 3:27pm
Just in case anybody is interested here is a release from the US stress tests on May 7 2009.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/30626486/Stre...ion_in_Capital

The red vertical line on the chart marks the release of the US stress tests. Make of it what you want.
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  • #274,305
  • Jul 22, 2010 3:48pm Jul 22, 2010 3:48pm
wow talk about confluence levels .....for the ones that havent been following my charts since i made this one in april, heres how it works:

the light blue tls act as extremely strong magnets. Once price has passed one, it is very probable that it will go to the next. When price bounces off one of these, it bounces hard, then attempts to seek an all-time fib. Just to show how accurate these tls are, look at the second chart(damnit wish i would bought when it touched the bottom to the pip!).....right now if I had to say, I'd say were headed to the higher confluence level @ +3100....not one, but two major fib level(83250-1.60369, 1.51437-1.18745) weekly R1 and daily and a magnet tl. Im looking to buy on a pull back close to london sesh, somewhere around 2850.

ignore the wave count on 2nd chart
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #274,306
  • Jul 22, 2010 3:49pm Jul 22, 2010 3:49pm
It looks a lot like a bullish pennant..., also check the MACD on the H4.
  • #274,307
  • Jul 22, 2010 3:57pm Jul 22, 2010 3:57pm
i don't think that the eu-stress-test has some great effects. I'm pretty sure that the results are too good to trust them.

the biggest risk that could be is, if some bigger banks aren't as strong as thought - for that I think that after the release there could be some selling pressure on the eu - sell the news!
Pecunia non olet
  • #274,308
  • Jul 22, 2010 3:57pm Jul 22, 2010 3:57pm
Quoting mfoste1
wow talk about confluence levels .....for the ones that havent been following my charts since i made this one in april, heres how it works:

the light blue tls act as extremely strong magnets. Once price has passed one, it is very probable that it will go to the next. When price bounces off one of these, it bounces hard, then attempts to seek an all-time fib. Just to show how accurate these tls are, look at the second chart(damnit wish i would bought when it touched the bottom to the pip!).....right now if I had to say, I'd say were...
2850 seems to be a rather favorable pull back position right now...
  • #274,309
  • Jul 22, 2010 4:34pm Jul 22, 2010 4:34pm
  •  flx
  • | Joined Dec 2008 | Status: Avoid Death by a Thousand Stops | 86 Posts
High volatility on crude in the last 4h $79,30/
What do they know?
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What goes around comes around
  • #274,310
  • Jul 22, 2010 4:51pm Jul 22, 2010 4:51pm
this is very cool. my buy stop was triggered (closed this morning)also confirming that this play is still valid. I am reluctant to make any trades before the stress tests, but I might place a small long just below 2800.

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  • #274,311
  • Jul 22, 2010 5:01pm Jul 22, 2010 5:01pm
Quoting flx
High volatility on crude in the last 4h $79,30/
What do they know?

Opec wants a price between 60-80 so hopefully its going to range between there...

The oil market is tiny compared to many other markets, gold for example is x5 oil...and when we come into a price we haven't seen since may action happens...

http://www.djnewsplus.com/ge/al?rnd=...HDTtZjWA%3D%3D

This link works for 1 day...press oil on the left side...
  • #274,312
  • Jul 22, 2010 5:02pm Jul 22, 2010 5:02pm
See how many times we visited this level. Strong support and resistance.
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All that is left in FF is just plain garbage. "Cloggie"
  • #274,313
  • Jul 22, 2010 5:51pm Jul 22, 2010 5:51pm
Quoting stevefx
It looks a lot like a bullish pennant..., also check the MACD on the H4.
Jawohl - MACD on H4 and on H8 looks still bullish. Moreover we got a bullish positioning after last rollover value dates. Bullish stance after all - and it should cross 1.2947 with potential towards 1.2968 / 72 or even to above 1.3015 in case of an extention.

This should be valid - as long as above 1.2853 or 1.2823 zone. Break of below 1.2802 - 1.2778 would open the downside.

Elliott points up from 1.2732 - projection 1.2960 and / or 1.3028


Good Luck
2013-07-31 Today's Phrase of the Day: Hold off from any recycle bin experts
  • #274,314
  • Jul 22, 2010 6:00pm Jul 22, 2010 6:00pm
  •  flx
  • | Joined Dec 2008 | Status: Avoid Death by a Thousand Stops | 86 Posts
Quoting Larseg
Opec wants a price between 60-80 so hopefully its going to range between there...

The oil market is tiny compared to many other markets, gold for example is x5 oil...and when we come into a price we haven't seen since may action happens...

http://www.djnewsplus.com/ge/al?rnd=...HDTtZjWA%3D%3D

This link works for 1 day...press oil on the left side...
Thanks Larseg, now I see.
Quote
"Analysts say the ability of the oil market to maintain prices toward the high end of the range even with the mixed, or unimpressive, economic data recently, suggests that traders are ready to push crude higher on any bits of optimistic news. "

I look at oil and gold as correlated with eur and some times they push hours before the news (like privileged informs).
What goes around comes around
  • #274,315
  • Jul 22, 2010 6:00pm Jul 22, 2010 6:00pm
Im thinking maybe a quick run to 2932 area then back down. We shall see. A clearing run is possible here
  • #274,316
  • Jul 22, 2010 6:08pm Jul 22, 2010 6:08pm
http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/attach/pdf.gif

2010-07-23_G7 Political, Economic Calendar - Week Ahead.pdf (15.8 KB)


According to this table from DJ there is no time mentioned for the "stress test results".

Keine Ahnung - lasst Euch überraschen
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf 2010-07-23_G7 Political, Economic Calendar - Week Ahead.pdf   16 KB | 950 downloads
2013-07-31 Today's Phrase of the Day: Hold off from any recycle bin experts
  • #274,317
  • Jul 22, 2010 6:27pm Jul 22, 2010 6:27pm
Quoting mercy seat
http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/attach/pdf.gif

2010-07-23_G7 Political, Economic Calendar - Week Ahead.pdf (15.8 KB)


According to this table from DJ there is no time mentioned for the "stress test results".

Keine Ahnung - lasst Euch überraschen

Mercy,

Click this link and scroll all the way to bottom and it will be thew last entry. Says tentative but I heard the same time mentioned on CNBC as well.

http://www.forexfactory.com/calendar.php
  • #274,318
  • Jul 22, 2010 6:59pm Jul 22, 2010 6:59pm
http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/attach/pdf.gif

2010-07-23_ASIA DAILY FOREX OUTLOOK - Majors (01h30 CET).pdf (17.7 KB)


ASIA DAILY FOREX OUTLOOK - Majors

SINGAPORE (Dow Jones)--Following are expected trading ranges and outlooks for nine major currency pairs today:


EUR/USD - to consolidate with risks skewed higher. Pair underpinned by improved investor risk sentiment; surprise rise in euro zone composite PMI to 56.7 in July from June's 56.0 (against forecast for drop to 55.2); improvement in euro-zone consumer confidence in July to minus 14.1 from minus 17.3 in June (vs forecast for no change); 3.8% rise in euro zone May new industrial orders (vs forecast for no change). But EUR/USD gains tempered by caution before results of European bank stress tests (due for release today after European markets close, starting at 6 p.m. Frankfurt time) - could drive EUR lower if tests seen as not stringent enough or if results are particularly bad; positions adjustment before weekend. Data focus: 0800 GMT German July Ifo business climate index, 1000 GMT ECB's Tumpel-Gugerell speaks. EUR/USD daily chart mixed as MACD bullish, but stochastics falling from overbought. Resistance at 1.2929 (yesterday's high); breach would expose upside to 1.3028 (Tuesday's high), then 1.3093 (May 10 high), 1.3124 (38.2% Fibonacci correction of 1.5144-1.1875 Nov. 25-June 7 decline) and 1.3342 (April 30 reaction high). Support at 1.2806 (hourly chart); breach would expose downside to 1.2730 (Wednesday's low), then 1.2707 (July 15 low), 1.2680 (July 14 low) and 1.2520 (July 13 low).


Ok - danke tjc - so there will be some time left until this release of stress tests
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf 2010-07-23_ASIA DAILY FOREX OUTLOOK - Majors (01h30 CET).pdf   18 KB | 290 downloads
2013-07-31 Today's Phrase of the Day: Hold off from any recycle bin experts
  • #274,319
  • Jul 22, 2010 7:07pm Jul 22, 2010 7:07pm
is a buy position.... just take 20 pips +/-
  • #274,320
  • Jul 22, 2010 7:43pm Jul 22, 2010 7:43pm
If you are into such things like this, you have a nice Divergence setting up. Any comments from the Div. pros?

There is also a nice retest of the UTL here

Jim
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