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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #16,701
  • Jun 29, 2010 10:47am Jun 29, 2010 10:47am
This pair doesn't make sense to me any more. In theory it should be trading a lot higher (around 95) but for some strange reason (as the markets tend do) it keeps going the opposite way from where it should be going.

Such a strong JPY will kill the export sector in Japan. It can not be maintained at this levels.

I might cut my loss and move on. But I am sure when I do the market will flip over.

Any ideas on this pair.

Regards
Nectarios
  • #16,702
  • Jun 29, 2010 10:53am Jun 29, 2010 10:53am
Quoting Nectarios
This pair doesn't make sense to me any more. In theory it should be trading a lot higher (around 95) but for some strange reason (as the markets tend do) it keeps going the opposite way from where it should be going.

Such a strong JPY will kill the export sector in Japan. It can not be maintained at this levels.

I might cut my loss and move on. But I am sure when I do the market will flip over.

Any ideas on this pair.

Regards
Nectarios
Sounds about right to me. I think you need a lot of patience for this pair as it is not controlled simply by interest rate differentials. There are a lot of other influences, such as risk aversion, export flows and a watchful hand from the Japanese govt. Currently, the trade is being dominated by risk aversion and quarter end flows. In the long run, fundamentals should take over and push this pair back up to the mid-nineties at least.
  • #16,703
  • Jun 29, 2010 1:24pm Jun 29, 2010 1:24pm
A long term setup looks interesting. Strong support levels right now and could easily go a 1:1 RR in the long run.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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"White collar crime deserves a blue collar beating!" - 8fingers
  • #16,704
  • Jun 29, 2010 2:36pm Jun 29, 2010 2:36pm
Quoting FX-Petra
Finally closed the last part of my UJ trade from 93.50 @ 89.30. My plan was to close the last half below 87, but I have been in this trade for months and the opprtunity costs were starting to annoy me. As my luck usually goes, I'm sure UJ will head south in the next few days, but unless I see a sustained break of 88, I am going to start looking for a place to flip and go long. Good trades to all!!!!
As predicted. The day after I close my short UJ falls to its lowest level in almost 2 months! I will try a small long near 88.30, if given the opportunity.

Regards
  • #16,705
  • Jun 29, 2010 4:28pm Jun 29, 2010 4:28pm
...ive been short this pair from 88831 for the last 12 hours...expecting the downtrend to continue...88181 target
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  • #16,706
  • Edited 11:50pm Jun 29, 2010 7:45pm | Edited 11:50pm
Quoting wontfindanam
Sounds about right to me. I think you need a lot of patience for this pair as it is not controlled simply by interest rate differentials. There are a lot of other influences, such as risk aversion, export flows and a watchful hand from the Japanese govt. Currently, the trade is being dominated by risk aversion and quarter end flows. In the long run, fundamentals should take over and push this pair back up to the mid-nineties at least.
The Japanese government will soon take a look, the yen appreciated affect their exports. Japan is considered exporting country, there is an optimal value for their business transactions, around ~ 95 100 yen per dollar. On Friday the NPF should be the trigger of the Japanese government to intervene, because that day we will have another fall in the dollar against the yen.
  • #16,707
  • Jun 29, 2010 11:53pm Jun 29, 2010 11:53pm
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTOE65D05G20100630

HELLO FRIENDS, AS I ALREADY HAD SPOKEN, THE JAPANESE GOVERNMENT IS AN EYE ON THE YEN, READ THIS NOTICE:

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTOE65D05G20100630
  • #16,708
  • Jun 30, 2010 12:34am Jun 30, 2010 12:34am
I am short the UJ, but I'm watching it closely. Curious if we're going to break through the next level and drop or not.
Only expectation matters . . .
  • #16,709
  • Jun 30, 2010 1:50am Jun 30, 2010 1:50am
Quoting Mary Silvert
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTOE65D05G20100630

HELLO FRIENDS, AS I ALREADY HAD SPOKEN, THE JAPANESE GOVERNMENT IS AN EYE ON THE YEN, READ THIS NOTICE:

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTOE65D05G20100630
Thanks for the link Mary. I too am sure that they are watching the Yen very closely. I imagine that NFP will be the 'make or break' for the Yen, and if the Yen takes a dramatic rise against the dollar, next week might be very interesting!
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #16,710
  • Jun 30, 2010 2:16am Jun 30, 2010 2:16am
Quoting realjumper
Thanks for the link Mary. I too am sure that they are watching the Yen very closely. I imagine that NFP will be the 'make or break' for the Yen, and if the Yen takes a dramatic rise against the dollar, next week might be very interesting!

will we see everything happening at once?
We rely on graphics in time of financial turbulence and economic?
is the question!

can we trust?
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  • #16,711
  • Jun 30, 2010 2:25am Jun 30, 2010 2:25am
there's an ascending triangle appearing on 15min chart

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_8texnURUcC...ggerForex2.bmp
  • #16,712
  • Jun 30, 2010 2:45am Jun 30, 2010 2:45am
I'm trading off 60m chart with a clear downtrend in place. Kind of was expecting a 30-50 pip drop sometime during NY session.

But I've also got 88.80ish as the "I'm wrong or too early" spot.

We shall see.
Only expectation matters . . .
  • #16,713
  • Jun 30, 2010 3:22am Jun 30, 2010 3:22am
By Takashi Mochizuki
TOKYO (MarketWatch) -- The dollar inched up against the yen in Asia Wednesday as long-term-focused Japanese retail investors bought the unit on lows to beef up dollar portfolios.

The amount of buying from these investors was not large, dealers said. But it had some impact on the market because other major players, such as short-term-focused hedge funds, stayed on the sidelines ahead of U.S. payrolls data from Automatic Data Processing due later in the global day.

Still, Tokyo dealers warned the greenback may suffer sharp declines if the data miss forecasts, as such an outcome will encourage investors to speculate that the key U.S. non-farm payrolls survey due Friday will also turn out weak.

A Dow Jones poll of economists views the ADP figures as showing a job increase of 60,000 in June from a month earlier.

Weaker-than-expected U.S. data are negative to the U.S. unit because they often push down U.S. Treasury yields, a tool that investors use to gauge the timing of the Federal Reserve's policy-rate tightening.

The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield was 2.947% in Asia, its lowest point since April 2009. The two-year yield was at 0.601%, near its all-time low.

"If the U.S. yield falls, investors should sell the dollar. There's no doubt about it," said Minoru Shioiri, a senior dealer at Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities.

The U.S. unit was at Y88.58 at 0450 GMT, higher than Y88.54 in New York Tuesday.

Once the dollar falls below the psychologically important Y88.00, it will likely drop sharply toward Y85.00 because of a significant amount of automated stop-loss selling orders, dealers said.

"There are at least several billion dollars worth of such orders in the market today. If they get executed, the dollar targeting Y85.00 isn't difficult at all," said a senior dealer at a major European bank in Tokyo.

Source: marketwatch.com
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #16,714
  • Jun 30, 2010 4:03am Jun 30, 2010 4:03am
Quoting realjumper
By Takashi Mochizuki
TOKYO (MarketWatch) -- The dollar inched up against the yen in Asia Wednesday as long-term-focused Japanese retail investors bought the unit on lows to beef up dollar portfolios.

The amount of buying from these investors was not large, dealers said. But it had some impact on the market because other major players, such as short-term-focused hedge funds, stayed on the sidelines ahead of U.S. payrolls data from Automatic Data Processing due later in the global day.

Still, Tokyo dealers warned the greenback may suffer sharp...
if that happens, Japan is the next Greece!
  • #16,715
  • Jun 30, 2010 7:35am Jun 30, 2010 7:35am
Quoting trade price
usd/jpy intraday 15 min
this channel high is supporting the bulls to the moment! Good to know!
Breaking 89,xx ...let's put a long?
  • #16,716
  • Jun 30, 2010 9:44am Jun 30, 2010 9:44am
Quoting Mary Silvert
this channel high is supporting the bulls to the moment! Good to know!
Breaking 89,xx ...let's put a long?


accept comments on this chart, 30 minutes, the community will be grateful!

thanks!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #16,717
  • Jun 30, 2010 10:06am Jun 30, 2010 10:06am
Quoting Mary Silvert
accept comments on this chart, 30 minutes, the community will be grateful!

thanks!

fell / below support
  • #16,718
  • Jun 30, 2010 5:14pm Jun 30, 2010 5:14pm
I put in a long order last night for 88.20, and it still has not hit. It may not hit, but I am not going to move up on my entry. This pair is so hard to read and requires so much patience, you can get into big trouble not sticking with your plan. It does seem that we should be due for some kind of relief rally. Risk aversion has been rampant for nearly 3 weeks, with no serious break of 88.20 area. We may well break it, but seems to me we need a breather and a rise to at least the 89 area to pick up some more steam. This close to NFP, we will probably hang out near 88.50 +/- 25 pips until Friday.

Regards,
  • #16,719
  • Jun 30, 2010 6:27pm Jun 30, 2010 6:27pm
Still just reason to short for me. The 60m chart shows about 88.36 as the level it keeps testing. And action went from a sideways trend to breaking south.

Waiting to see. Could hover around this point for quite a bit.

I think there's a lot of downside potential still (actually posted this days back).

Break through of 88.20 might show this. I think that's the last battleground for a bit. Next point of reference is 85 level.

Who knows.

Will UJ spike down when NFP comes out? hmmm
Only expectation matters . . .
  • #16,720
  • Jun 30, 2010 7:31pm Jun 30, 2010 7:31pm
Quoting RebelRed
Still just reason to short for me. The 60m chart shows about 88.36 as the level it keeps testing. And action went from a sideways trend to breaking south.

Waiting to see. Could hover around this point for quite a bit.

I think there's a lot of downside potential still (actually posted this days back).

Break through of 88.20 might show this. I think that's the last battleground for a bit. Next point of reference is 85 level.

Who knows.

Will UJ spike down when NFP comes out? hmmm
i'm short from 88831 still...target has not changed, looking for 88181...i see support at 88283 and resistance, 88725...looking to take another short form 88725 for the next couple hours
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