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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #16,661
  • Jun 28, 2010 5:49am Jun 28, 2010 5:49am
Quoting realjumper
So if the median estimate is 97, some of the strategists are aiming higher.....some lower too of course. I have a ring around 100.....we shall see


Do you think that any of them took into account the probable consequences of that oil spill continuing and resulting in massive evacuations in the US?

Right now it does not appear that anyone has come up with a good way of stopping the leak and that, this being the beginning of the hurricane season, it is very likely that there will be serious contamination of a large part of the US for a long time to come.

Unless a miracle occurs, it is looking more and more likely that the US economy will go down the toilet for a long time to come. We need to keep this in mind with any long term projections. Right now, there seems to be massive denial of what may end up being the worst ecological/economic disaster in history.

Oh, and if you have any BP stock, SELL.
  • #16,662
  • Jun 28, 2010 6:23am Jun 28, 2010 6:23am
Quoting moonchild
Do you think that any of them took into account the probable consequences of that oil spill continuing and resulting in massive evacuations in the US?

Right now it does not appear that anyone has come up with a good way of stopping the leak and that, this being the beginning of the hurricane season, it is very likely that there will be serious contamination of a large part of the US for a long time to come.

Unless a miracle occurs, it is looking more and more likely that the US economy will go down the toilet for a long time to come....
One of the first lessons he learned in graphic analysis is that the market or prices, since they absorb everything that happens around you, or can end the world, everything is pre-digested in the market or prices.
example:

This oil spill contributes - 0.2 in the dollar.
The verbal intervention from Japanese Prime Minister contributes + 0.2 in the dollar price

... and so on! believe it!
  • #16,663
  • Jun 28, 2010 9:20am Jun 28, 2010 9:20am
anyone knows if this site is reliable?
http://www.forecasts.org/index.htm
  • #16,664
  • Jun 28, 2010 9:24am Jun 28, 2010 9:24am
The ratio of buyers to sellers for the USDJPY is 3.83

This signifies that there are 3.83 buyers for every 1 seller.

Retail positioning is a contrarian indicator so further downside is expected.
http://i260.photobucket.com/albums/i...20100628064543
  • #16,665
  • Jun 28, 2010 10:03am Jun 28, 2010 10:03am
Quoting qtmspin
The ratio of buyers to sellers for the USDJPY is 3.83

This signifies that there are 3.83 buyers for every 1 seller.

Retail positioning is a contrarian indicator so further downside is expected.
http://i260.photobucket.com/albums/i...20100628064543
can someone explain me what means this type of your information?
grateful
thank you
  • #16,666
  • Jun 28, 2010 2:54pm Jun 28, 2010 2:54pm
Quoting FX-Petra
This is getting ridiculous. Have been in this trade several months. I still think there will be a push down to sub 87, but month after month I have my money tied up in a trade that is going nowhere fast. If there is no push down in the next couple of weeks, I might just have to cut this one lose. I am short from 93.50, so it is in the green. I just hate not seeing a plan through to the end. We will see. Good trades to all-----
Finally closed the last part of my UJ trade from 93.50 @ 89.30. My plan was to close the last half below 87, but I have been in this trade for months and the opprtunity costs were starting to annoy me. As my luck usually goes, I'm sure UJ will head south in the next few days, but unless I see a sustained break of 88, I am going to start looking for a place to flip and go long. Good trades to all!!!!
  • #16,667
  • Jun 28, 2010 2:57pm Jun 28, 2010 2:57pm
Quoting qtmspin
The ratio of buyers to sellers for the USDJPY is 3.83

This signifies that there are 3.83 buyers for every 1 seller.

Retail positioning is a contrarian indicator so further downside is expected.
http://i260.photobucket.com/albums/i...20100628064543
I would no get too excited about that retail contraian indicator. It has been wrong about as often as it has been right. There are a lot more skins in the game than the customer base at any given bucket shop.

Regards,
  • #16,668
  • Jun 28, 2010 6:55pm Jun 28, 2010 6:55pm
Quoting Mary Silvert
anyone knows if this site is reliable?
http://www.forecasts.org/index.htm
No idea Mary......I tend to ignore those forecasting sites because they are guessing way into the future and I don't believe that those forecasts are any better than flipping a coin!!
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #16,669
  • Jun 28, 2010 6:59pm Jun 28, 2010 6:59pm
Quoting FX-Petra
Finally closed the last part of my UJ trade from 93.50 @ 89.30. My plan was to close the last half below 87, but I have been in this trade for months and the opprtunity costs were starting to annoy me. As my luck usually goes, I'm sure UJ will head south in the next few days, but unless I see a sustained break of 88, I am going to start looking for a place to flip and go long. Good trades to all!!!!
Nice

I too am looking for a long entry, but as you say, a good break of 88 might put that plan on hold for a while. If 88 does indeed fall, I will only go short for a very limited time because I think some sort of intervention will be lurking down there. 5c
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #16,670
  • Jun 28, 2010 8:50pm Jun 28, 2010 8:50pm
Pin-bar forming on the daily chart.
  • #16,671
  • Edited 10:36pm Jun 28, 2010 9:02pm | Edited 10:36pm
on Daily chart

will it play range and move up (blue box, stocs , ma200 attraction and histogram osma )

or

follow red downtrend channel and drop down (lower thick up-channel line broken , testing blue lower down-channel , 89.00 support just only 30 pips away , attraction of the major pink downtrend line )
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: uj1.gif Size: 19 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: uj2.gif Size: 22 KB
  • #16,672
  • Jun 28, 2010 9:07pm Jun 28, 2010 9:07pm
Quoting TheArcher
will it play range and move up

or

follow downtrend channel and drop down ?
Well that's the million dollar question isn't it? Either could happen, but my 'gut feeling'.....for what it's worth.....is that we may play the range all the way to NFP
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #16,673
  • Jun 28, 2010 9:10pm Jun 28, 2010 9:10pm
congrats for FX Petra and RealJumper. nice trade..
i'm long this pair so i think my profitable time is not now. still waiting for this pair to reverse back to 93.xx or perhaps 95.xx
  • #16,674
  • Jun 28, 2010 9:32pm Jun 28, 2010 9:32pm
Thanks heaps for your posts guys. I am long myself and building a position now as I see if it does go any lower than 88 intervention may pop into the equation. But I guess anything could happen right?

I just hate shorting this pair when its low as it can really bite you if intervention happens.

Plus I still see this hitting 95-97 in the next 6 months. But thats just my opinion.
  • #16,675
  • Jun 28, 2010 9:36pm Jun 28, 2010 9:36pm
i have released the arrow !

wish me luck !
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  • #16,676
  • Jun 28, 2010 9:45pm Jun 28, 2010 9:45pm
Quoting TheArcher
i have released the arrow !

wish me luck !
Fortune favours the bold they say.......I'm a pussy though!!
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #16,677
  • Edited 10:27pm Jun 28, 2010 10:06pm | Edited 10:27pm
Quoting TheArcher
i have released the arrow !

wish me luck !
aborted mission with 15pips ..

actually came very close to target by 1 pip and then turned back ... hazard of watching it live ... got doubtful ... hence buy market .

a bird in hand is worth two in the bush .

gain +15 pips
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  • #16,678
  • Jun 28, 2010 10:12pm Jun 28, 2010 10:12pm
Great trade man
  • #16,679
  • Jun 28, 2010 10:14pm Jun 28, 2010 10:14pm
Quoting TheArcher
aborted mission with 15pips ..

actually came very close to target by 1 pip and then turned back ... hazard of watching it live ... got doubtful ... hence buy market .

a bird in hand is worth two in the bush .
Profit is profit dude.....
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #16,680
  • Jun 28, 2010 10:22pm Jun 28, 2010 10:22pm
sigh ... could have got the 5 pips .. but , then could have also lost it ...

like the disallowed England's goal ... can go on speculating of the outcome ..

wise to move on ...
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