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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #204,481
  • Mar 9, 2010 4:57am Mar 9, 2010 4:57am
Quoting gammase1
I'm often wrong, Azim. I just play it day to day, try to capture whatever momentum/trend that may be prevailing.... No bias on direction, so long as it moves.
Makes the two of us paul

p/s: but i don't often get it wrong tho, since I'm a market maker according to Jassim
Thank You
  • #204,482
  • Mar 9, 2010 5:00am Mar 9, 2010 5:00am
Hi,

If we were to see a hung parliament at the general election, could you guys give me your thoughts (guess) as to where we could see this price?

I was thinking 1.38/1.40...Do you think this is realistic?

I’m holding shorts from the 1.5380 area that I’m hoping of tying in with the election.

S/L in green if we move back up before hand.

Thanks in advance.
  • #204,483
  • Mar 9, 2010 5:05am Mar 9, 2010 5:05am
Quoting gammase1
How about the scenario that all of the factors you mention are already well priced in by the market, if perhaps discounted a little too aggressively?

Just playing devil's advocate here... I actually think a daily close below 1.50 will open up the path for for more downside movements, towards 4685.
Do you think we have already seen the lows for the day? GU, EU and UC are having a hard time to break levels.
  • #204,484
  • Mar 9, 2010 5:06am Mar 9, 2010 5:06am
Quoting gammase1
How about the scenario that all of the factors you mention are already well priced in by the market, if perhaps discounted a little too aggressively?

Just playing devil's advocate here... I actually think a daily close below 1.50 will open up the path for for more downside movements, towards 4685.
Today's trade balance sharp increase was not priced in the market. With the dow futures dropping in early trading we may see a bounce in USD once NY opens, leading to a further weakening in the pound. We may well see a close below 49 today.

If you look back at the last time the UK showed such a large increase in trade balance, you can see what effect that had on Sterling.

I am a technical trader, however in light of todays numbers I will have to ignore that hammer on the weekly.
  • #204,485
  • Mar 9, 2010 5:10am Mar 9, 2010 5:10am
Quoting cloggie
Today's trade balance sharp increase was not priced in the market. With the dow futures dropping in early trading we may see a bounce in USD once NY opens, leading to a further weakening in the pound. We may well see a close below 49 today.

If you look back at the last time the UK showed such a large increase in trade balance, you can see what effect that had on Sterling.

I am a technical trader, however in light of todays numbers I will have to ignore that hammer on the weekly.
Then let price guide you through this market, rather than your perceptions regarding the macro picture.... Price will not show the same biases and distortions as one's views of the world.
  • #204,486
  • Mar 9, 2010 5:11am Mar 9, 2010 5:11am
Quoting maurofx
Do you think we have already seen the lows for the day? GU, EU and UC are having a hard time to break levels.
For what little it's worth, I think that any renewed weakness on equities as NY starts trading will lead to more downside for GU and EU.
  • #204,487
  • Mar 9, 2010 5:15am Mar 9, 2010 5:15am
Quoting gammase1
Then let price guide you through this market, rather than your perceptions regarding the macro picture.... Price will not show the same biases and distortions as one's views of the world.
I trade on short TF's and long TF's, the view of the world combined with a technical analysis is crucial to long term trading. Why would I wait for the market to price economic news in when I can front run it based on a long term outlook.

Even on shorter TF's one needs to be aware of general sentiment to aid in trading decisions.

There is not a single economic reason for an increase in Sterling right now. and technically we have room left on the downside on H4
  • #204,488
  • Mar 9, 2010 5:18am Mar 9, 2010 5:18am
Quoting cloggie
I trade on short TF's and long TF's, the view of the world combined with a technical analysis is crucial to long term trading. Why would I wait for the market to price economic news in when I can front run it based on a long term outlook.

Even on shorter TF's one needs to be aware of general sentiment to aid in trading decisions.

There is not a single economic reason for an increase in Sterling right now. and technically we have room left on the downside on H4
Because your perceptions are intrinsically flawed. It's part of the human condition.

Moreover, it is not what you think that matters. Your view does not move markets.

But whatever works for you.

Good luck
  • #204,489
  • Mar 9, 2010 5:29am Mar 9, 2010 5:29am
Yesterday 1.5195 was the retracement from 1.55-1.47 levels.

G/U have resumed its downtrend.

British Govt is happy with pound being hammered as increased exports will lift the growth of UK.
  • #204,490
  • Mar 9, 2010 5:41am Mar 9, 2010 5:41am
Small long at 1.4945 SL @ 1.4930
  • #204,491
  • Mar 9, 2010 5:44am Mar 9, 2010 5:44am
Quoting Pyramus
Small long at 1.4945 SL @ 1.4930
curious why
  • #204,492
  • Mar 9, 2010 5:53am Mar 9, 2010 5:53am
http://dynexcorp.com/charts/images/bpweek.png
  • #204,493
  • Mar 9, 2010 5:53am Mar 9, 2010 5:53am
Quoting gammase1
Because your perceptions are intrinsically flawed. It's part of the human condition.

Moreover, it is not what you think that matters. Your view does not move markets.

But whatever works for you.

Good luck
So are you arguing that using fundamental events as a guidance is useless?
  • #204,494
  • Mar 9, 2010 5:54am Mar 9, 2010 5:54am
Quoting Clouds
curious why
1.4938 is the 61.8% fib of 1.5196 to 1.4780 a clear break then will resume short.
  • #204,495
  • Mar 9, 2010 5:55am Mar 9, 2010 5:55am
I' m long too because the fall is not as bad as expected...
  • #204,496
  • Mar 9, 2010 6:02am Mar 9, 2010 6:02am
so am i. i'm long because the earth is round.

having gone thru some pretty good read by paul, cloggie & ams ... then this. WTF!! come on!!!!!

one more to the bin
Thank You
  • #204,497
  • Mar 9, 2010 6:05am Mar 9, 2010 6:05am
Quoting wormboy
so am i. i'm long because the earth is round.
And because the sky is blue..
  • #204,498
  • Mar 9, 2010 6:07am Mar 9, 2010 6:07am
Quoting wormboy
so am i. i'm long because the earth is round.

having gone thru some pretty good read by paul, cloggie & ams ... then this. WTF!! come on!!!!!

one more to the bin

Stop hunting, DJIA futures dropped further
  • #204,499
  • Mar 9, 2010 6:11am Mar 9, 2010 6:11am
Quoting wormboy
so am i. i'm long because the earth is round.

having gone thru some pretty good read by paul, cloggie & ams ... then this. WTF!! come on!!!!!

one more to the bin
What is the TP for your longs?
  • #204,500
  • Mar 9, 2010 6:12am Mar 9, 2010 6:12am
Quoting cloggie
Stop hunting, DJIA futures dropped further
I was taking the piss.
My position is now flat. .... and I'm not supersticious, I don't believe in stophunts.
Thank You
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