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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #204,461
  • Mar 9, 2010 2:16am Mar 9, 2010 2:16am
Quoting Fudomyo
lol...
lol I know .. showoff! I'm not actually .. trying to prove my point when I said yesterday this weekly pin many are so hoping for is 400 pip wide. 400 pips!! Sad thing to waste
Thank You
  • #204,462
  • Mar 9, 2010 2:22am Mar 9, 2010 2:22am
it would have been picture perfect if it went up to re-test the TL, but i get a feeling it's not gonna

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  • #204,463
  • Mar 9, 2010 2:23am Mar 9, 2010 2:23am
A widening of the trade deficit is usually a precursor to interest rate lowering to stimulate domestic borrowing and therefor the increase of GDP. The UK is now in a predicament, the trade deficit widened on a fall in the value of the pound, couple that with no room left in reducing interest rates to spur a domestic growth we may see a drastic fall in GDP and deflation in the next report. Add to this the possibility of a hung parliament and no matter what the technical side says we are looking at a further drop in Sterling.

Dow futures are dropping in early trading this morning too.

I have quite a few lots riding on this short trade
  • #204,464
  • Mar 9, 2010 2:26am Mar 9, 2010 2:26am
Quoting wormboy
lol I know .. showoff! I'm not actually .. trying to prove my point when I said yesterday this weekly pin many are so hoping for is 400 pip wide. 400 pips!! Sad thing to waste



good call as usual my friend. we should get our entry soon!
  • #204,465
  • Mar 9, 2010 2:28am Mar 9, 2010 2:28am
Quoting cloggie
A widening of the trade deficit is usually a precursor to interest rate lowering to stimulate domestic borrowing and therefor the increase of GDP. The UK is now in a predicament, the trade deficit widened on a fall in the value of the pound, couple that with no room left in reducing interest rates to spur a domestic growth we may see a drastic fall in GDP and deflation in the next report. Add to this the possibility of a hung parliament and no matter what the technical side says we are looking at a further drop in Sterling.

Dow futures are dropping...
Excellent perspective, thank you.
  • #204,466
  • Mar 9, 2010 2:29am Mar 9, 2010 2:29am
Quoting Clouds
it would have been picture perfect if it went up to re-test the TL, but i get a feeling it's not gonna

Attachment


you can never be too sure
By Gerry Davies || March 9, 2010 at 09:48 GMT


UK January global goods trade deficit has come in at -7.987 bln, weaker than median forecast of -7.0 bln and biggest deficit since August 2008. Non-EU goods trade balance -4.834 bln, much weaker than median forecast -3.40 bln and biggest deficit since January 2009.
Getting reports of sovereign buying below 1.4950, but haven’t seen any bounce as yet, presently at 1.4940/45.
Thank You
  • #204,467
  • Mar 9, 2010 2:31am Mar 9, 2010 2:31am
Quoting Fudomyo



good call as usual my friend. we should get our entry soon!
Thank you sir. Lucky guess as usual!
Can we go wee bit lower? And get our entry there please?
Thank You
  • #204,468
  • Mar 9, 2010 2:32am Mar 9, 2010 2:32am
Quoting wormboy
you can never be too sure
[color=#333333][b][u]...
Here's some lines I drew, (biased to the recent top). Of course, I'm long bias USD on too many other pairs to have any other view at the moment.

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  • #204,469
  • Mar 9, 2010 2:36am Mar 9, 2010 2:36am
Quoting cloggie
A widening of the trade deficit is usually a precursor to interest rate lowering to stimulate domestic borrowing and therefor the increase of GDP. The UK is now in a predicament, the trade deficit widened on a fall in the value of the pound, couple that with no room left in reducing interest rates to spur a domestic growth we may see a drastic fall in GDP and deflation in the next report. Add to this the possibility of a hung parliament and no matter what the technical side says we are looking at a further drop in Sterling.

Dow futures are dropping...
On a y-o-y basis, deflaiton certainly won't be present at the next inflation report. A weakening currency and higher commodity prices, relative to last year, will see to that.

Moving out to the latter part of 2010, with the very high levels of debt in the private and public sector coupled with the amount of spare capacity in the economy, deflation is certainly a possibility, although a continued depreciation of sterling will import a welcome dose of inflation to counteract such risks.

The possibility of a hung parliament is currently weighing on the pound. But the reality of this outcome will likely prove to be neutral for sterling, if not a positive, once the market sees that the Lib Dems are not interested in causing unnecessary disruption - it simply is not in their interests to do so.

As for no room left to reduce interest rates. This isn't strictly true, seeing as the BOE has left open the option of an increase to the asset purchase programme. QE, as we both know, increases the supply and thereby reduces the cost of money in the economy, making it a de-facto cut in longer term interest rates.
  • #204,470
  • Mar 9, 2010 2:39am Mar 9, 2010 2:39am
Quoting gammase1
BAD!!!!!

This is just a stop-hunt, Azim!

M A N I P U L A T I O N

SSHHHH!!! "THEY" ARE OUT THERE!

Come on Paul, fess up...

You must have some kind of supernatural trading skills or secret device that allows you to see in the price order flow signature exactly what "they" are thinking!

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  • #204,471
  • Mar 9, 2010 2:41am Mar 9, 2010 2:41am
Quoting Fudomyo
Come on Paul, fess up...

You must have some kind of supernatural trading skills or secret device that allows you to see in the price order flow signature exactly what "they" are thinking!

  • #204,472
  • Mar 9, 2010 2:41am Mar 9, 2010 2:41am
Quoting Clouds
Here's some lines I drew, (biased to the recent top). Of course, I'm long bias USD on too many other pairs to have any other view at the moment.

Attachment
Okay. Don't get me wrong, overall I am bullish the greenback too, had been so since Sept last year when many were saying dollar was gonna be worth toilet paper
But, it's had stalled about 3 weeks around this current level, so perhaps a retrace is coming. Draw a line across 80.75 level on your daily dx. That's the barrier. Cable won't stray far as long as dollar stays below that level.
Good luck.
Thank You
  • #204,473
  • Mar 9, 2010 2:42am Mar 9, 2010 2:42am
I am short G/U, G/J, E/U.

First target is 1.40 in G/U, 125 IN G/J and 1.27 in E/U.

Time frame- 4 to 8 weeks.

Be a Millionaire.
  • #204,474
  • Mar 9, 2010 2:45am Mar 9, 2010 2:45am
Quoting gammase1
On a y-o-y basis, deflaiton certainly won't be present at the next inflation report. A weakening currency and higher commodity prices, relative to last year, will see to that.

Moving out to the latter part of 2010, with the very high levels of debt in the private and public sector coupled with the amount of spare capacity in the economy, deflation is certainly a possibility, although a continued depreciation of sterling will import a welcome dose of inflation to counteract such risks.

The possibility of a hung parliament is currently weighing...

Of course the direct effect of QE as an option to finance public debt, (about the only option left) will result in a further fall in the pound. I cannot think of any scenario that will increase the value of the pound in the near future. The UK government is rapidly running out of options. I would not be surprised if we see 1.35 again. The government can of course allow the currency to depreciate as a tool to reduce the deficit. All roads lead to 1.35........
  • #204,475
  • Mar 9, 2010 2:46am Mar 9, 2010 2:46am
  •  ams
  • | Joined Apr 2009 | Status: Perspective,Position,Plan ,Pattern | 2,859 Posts
They are very well on path of USA. Reducing currency value so debt is reduced in the short term and making it attractive for investors to buy the debt.

Let's discuss what's the worst that's going to happen.
Pound might be at parity with dollar in 1-2 yrs, easy to assume but not that easy in reality.

There has to be reason for it's high value against other currencies. CB will do everything in there power to grow the economy (print money etc). But in the shorter term, it's in their favour to let the currency value slip so they become suppliers of goods, services makes them competitive. Only issue is inflation which will rocket. But hey, other supplier countries will also devalue their bits to survive. So to summarise, play the sucker where it goes, just don't think much. It's beyond us. We are only the players in this game not the masters.


ta
ams


ta
ams


Quoting gammase1
On a Y-o-Y basis, deflaiton certainly won't be present at the next inflation report. A weakening currency and higher commodity prices, relative to last year, will see to that.

Moving out to the latter part of 2010, with the very high levels of debt in the private and public sector coupled with the amount of spare capacity in the economy, deflation is certainly a possibility, although a continued depreciation of sterling will import a welcome dose of inflation to counteract such risks.

The possibility of a hung parliament is currently weighing...
  • #204,476
  • Mar 9, 2010 2:48am Mar 9, 2010 2:48am
Quoting Fudomyo
Come on Paul, fess up...

You must have some kind of supernatural trading skills or secret device that allows you to see in the price order flow signature exactly what "they" are thinking!

Wish they made voice coils like that for long throw subs. Me like it loud & lowww
Thank You
  • #204,477
  • Mar 9, 2010 2:50am Mar 9, 2010 2:50am
Quoting cloggie
Of course the direct effect of QE as an option to finance public debt, (about the only option left) will result in a further fall in the pound. I cannot think of any scenario that will increase the value of the pound in the near future. The UK government is rapidly running out of options. I would not be surprised if we see 1.35 again.
How about the scenario that all of the factors you mention are already well priced in by the market, if perhaps discounted a little too aggressively?

Just playing devil's advocate here... I actually think a daily close below 1.50 will open up the path for for more downside movements, towards 4685.
  • #204,478
  • Mar 9, 2010 2:52am Mar 9, 2010 2:52am
Quoting ams
They are very well on path of USA. Reducing currency value so debt is reduced in the short term and making it attractive for investors to buy the debt.

Let's discuss what's the worst that's going to happen.
Pound might be at parity with dollar in 1-2 yrs, easy to assume but not that easy in reality.

There has to be reason for it's high value against other currencies. CB will do everything in there power to grow the economy (print money etc). But in the shorter term, it's in their favour to let the currency value slip so they become suppliers...
Couldn't agree with you more, AMS.

Paul
  • #204,479
  • Mar 9, 2010 2:53am Mar 9, 2010 2:53am
Quoting gammase1
.. I think a daily close below 1.50 will open up the path for for more downside movements, towards 4685.
You just broke weekly pb guys's heart paul. BADD!!!
Thank You
  • #204,480
  • Mar 9, 2010 2:55am Mar 9, 2010 2:55am
Quoting wormboy
You just broke weekly pb guys's heart paul. BADD!!!
I'm often wrong, Azim. I just play it day to day, try to capture whatever momentum/trend that may be prevailing.... No bias on direction, so long as it moves.
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