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DanUK Trend Trading Journal 2010

  • #41
  • Feb 27, 2010 3:51am Feb 27, 2010 3:51am
Quoting bun888
Hi Dan,

Looking in my chart, I think that AUD/USD's trend has started to change.
What do you think?

I am thinking of shorting, however, do you think it is better to wait for a retrace to enter going short?
Hi bun888,

In my opinion the long term trend is still up however we have been consolidating downwards with large swings in each direction (large enough to trade in both if you wanted to).

Personally I will remain long (as per my earlier post) until price shows me otherwise. For me the 0.8500 area is still the lower support level that needs to be broken/destroyed before I would say it is a long term short.

But that's just my opinion... I am a bit stubborn when it comes to trend changes!! Lol!

Regards,

Dan
  • #42
  • Feb 27, 2010 4:01am Feb 27, 2010 4:01am
Quoting vicky_ag
Dan, Still awaiting your reply on my last chart.

Btw, checked the COT report for this week. Did it even come out ? The site still shows 16 Feb's report to me.

The COT index is still zero. So, we maintain our position of taking shorts.
Hi vicky_ag,

You should be able to see the COT report for this week at http://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/deacmelf.htm

Analysing the cot report can be hard work. Sometimes when it shows strong selling it is actually a warning that selling time is almost over.

I use the data in conjunction with technical analysis. The Euro index is, as you said, at 0.00 which is an extreme selling reading. Traders net positions also increased by 12,201 additional shorts which adds to the short bias. However, as the reading is extreme and technicals have shown a struggle to get below 1.3450, we could be seeing a short term up-move - most likely a correction up to 1.38 - 1.40 area. That is what I am thinking anyway! But you must always remember to trade what you see... if we don't get a bigger correction, simply continue trading your downward trendlines and 50% retracements!

Regards,

Dan
  • #43
  • Feb 27, 2010 6:43am Feb 27, 2010 6:43am
Quoting DanUK
Hi Mitch,

Sorry for the slow reply - I've had a very busy week and it looks like next week will be the same!!!

G/U has been kind to me this week! My short from 1.58 closed at 1.55 for +300 pips. I sold again at 1.55 after price bounced off previous support at 1.5550 (didn't quite reach the 50% at 1.5580, missed by about 5 pips, but was close enough to look for a position). That closed on a little spike up into 1.5300 for +200 pips.

I'm still an A/U bull and I was looking for the same entry as you at...
Hi DAn

great trades......just for clarification,would you mind sharing the exact trigger chart( ie if it was 1 hr or other ) and what YOU saw at that LEVEL or price bar that allowed the TRIGGER....
thanks and take care

baz
  • #44
  • Feb 27, 2010 7:37am Feb 27, 2010 7:37am
which charts do you use for COT?


i am short on both euro and aud and might get stopped out. let's see.

Quoting DanUK
Hi vicky_ag,

I must admit the reason I don't draw too many trendlines is to prevent me from getting analysis paralysis! I try to keep to two trendlines maximum - an outer trendline (tends to be for direction more than entries) and an inner trendline for entries.

[color=black][font=Verdana]How you enter your trades comes down to your experience I think. I always used to wait for PA - not necessarily a particular setup (i.e. pin bar) but I would always wait for price to move in my direction by about 50...
  • #45
  • Feb 27, 2010 11:22am Feb 27, 2010 11:22am
Quoting DanUK
Hi vicky_ag,

I must admit the reason I don't draw too many trendlines is to prevent me from getting analysis paralysis! I try to keep to two trendlines maximum - an outer trendline (tends to be for direction more than entries) and an inner trendline for entries.

[color=black][font=Verdana]How you enter your trades comes down to your experience I think. I always used to wait for PA - not necessarily a particular setup (i.e. pin bar) but I would always wait for price to move in my direction by about 50...
Dan, I am still a noob at drawing TLs. So connected at least 2 highs and ended with so many lines. That is what has got me into this problem.
I am thinking of going by the book and look for at least 3 connects. That wud remove the superfluous lines.
As, it is said "different strokes for different folks".

I have one more question for you, if you dont mind:

I have been running the trading simulator on EU to test my TL drawing and trading skill with this method. One thing, I have noticed is, it is quite difficult to have wins in terms of 100s. As, in if I am risking 100, my win cud be 88-105 but not exact 100 or 200. Now, looking at ur monthly report , you have wins like 100/200/300 on a risk of 100. Am I missing something?
  • #46
  • Feb 27, 2010 1:29pm Feb 27, 2010 1:29pm
Quoting baz
Hi DAn

great trades......just for clarification,would you mind sharing the exact trigger chart( ie if it was 1 hr or other ) and what YOU saw at that LEVEL or price bar that allowed the TRIGGER....
thanks and take care

baz
Hi Baz,

Which charts do you want to see? There's not much to see as far as a trigger goes... just a bounce off of the level that we are looking at and an entry at the next xx00 or xx50!

Regards,

Dan
  • #47
  • Feb 27, 2010 1:32pm Feb 27, 2010 1:32pm
Quoting coolshades
which charts do you use for COT?


i am short on both euro and aud and might get stopped out. let's see.
Time will tell! I'm confident that the down trend in euro will continue (for now, at least) so if you do get stopped out you will probably still be able to recover. AUD though is a bit more tricky - I can see arguments for both long and short!

Regards,

Dan

PS I'll send you a pm regarding COT websites as I'm not sure if I should post links publicly (due to the commercial interest etc).
  • #48
  • Feb 27, 2010 1:45pm Feb 27, 2010 1:45pm
Quoting DanUK
Hi Baz,

Which charts do you want to see? There's not much to see as far as a trigger goes... just a bounce off of the level that we are looking at and an entry at the next xx00 or xx50!

Regards,

Dan
Sorry,i may not have come across correctly........i understand your method,BUT on occasions you mention the 1 hr TF rejection,it is this i am trying to UNDERTAND.......what qualifies as a rejection..
i attach a 1 hr TF chart....
i too went SHORT,but at a LOWER price than yours,and on a 12 Hr TF chart..
Where would your entry POINT be .....ie do you wait for the 1 hr TF candle to close or just take the entry as the Candle is Forming ??..
thanks

baz

GBP_USD Spot.png
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBP_USD Spot.png Size: 16 KB
  • #49
  • Feb 27, 2010 1:51pm Feb 27, 2010 1:51pm
Quoting baz
Sorry,i may not have...
My entry was DURING this 12 Hr TF Candle

GBP_USD Spot.png
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBP_USD Spot.png Size: 13 KB
  • #50
  • Feb 27, 2010 2:15pm Feb 27, 2010 2:15pm
Quoting vicky_ag
Dan, I am still a noob at drawing TLs. So connected at least 2 highs and ended with so many lines. That is what has got me into this problem.
Quoting vicky_ag
I am thinking of going by the book and look for at least 3 connects. That wud remove the superfluous lines.
As, it is said "different strokes for different folks".

I have one more question for you, if you dont mind:
...


I understand the trendline problem... it was one I faced too. All I suggest is keep it simple. If you have too much on your screen you will sub-consciously or even consciously cause yourself to over-analyse your charts. I'm not saying go in blind, but do be careful that you don't overload your senses!

I guess you are taking "88-105" because you are using a pip by pip stop loss. I don't - I use a round number stop loss! That is, if I enter at 1.1500 and price gets to 1.1525 I don't move my stop - but when price gets to 1600, that is when I move my stop. This is just a personal preference of mine!

Regards,

Dan
  • #51
  • Feb 27, 2010 2:22pm Feb 27, 2010 2:22pm
Quoting baz
Sorry,i may not have come across correctly........i understand your method,BUT on occasions you mention the 1 hr TF rejection,it is this i am trying to UNDERTAND.......what qualifies as a rejection..
i attach a 1 hr TF chart....
i too went SHORT,but at a LOWER price than yours,and on a 12 Hr TF chart..
Where would your entry POINT be .....ie do you wait for the 1 hr TF candle to close or just take the entry as the Candle is Forming ??..
thanks

baz

[url="http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=428255&stc=1&d=1267299885"]GBP_USD...
Hi baz,

I see what you mean now!

I will get around to posting a chart but I'm having trouble at the moment!

I do sometimes drop down to the 1 hour chart but it is not a particular pattern I am looking for - the reason I drop down to the 1 hour sometimes is just that it is easier on the eye when watching an "area of interest" such as the 50% level.

To make this a bit clearer, let's use a theoretical example... let's say the 50% level is around 1.5000 and we are looking to short. I will drop down to the 1 hour when we get nearby and then watch how price reacts when it gets to the 1.5000 level. If price cuts straight through it's a signal to stay out and look for a deeper correction (or trend change if applicable). However, if price starts to stall (i.e. the counter trend momentum slows at the level or starts to reverse) I will look to sell below at 1.4950. The only time this is different is if there are a confluence of factors (as mentioned in an earlier post) and I play a stop order because I have that much confidence in the level/trade.

I hope that helps. If you need any more info let me know and I will try to explain further!

Regards,

Dan
  • #52
  • Feb 27, 2010 2:23pm Feb 27, 2010 2:23pm
Just to add to my last post... I am not necessarily looking for a candle close, but if we do get confirming price action, such as a pin bar, engulfing bar etc in the direction of the trend that would give me extra reason to get in!

Regards,

Dan
  • #53
  • Feb 27, 2010 2:33pm Feb 27, 2010 2:33pm
Quoting DanUK
Just to add to my last post... I am not necessarily looking for a candle close, but if we do get confirming price action, such as a pin bar, engulfing bar etc in the direction of the trend that would give me extra reason to get in!

Regards,

Dan
thanks DAN...i now understand.....and hence presume that the 50% level Carries more weight....obviously with all other factors in place as well..

take care and all the best..

baz
  • #54
  • Feb 27, 2010 2:48pm Feb 27, 2010 2:48pm
Quoting DanUK
I understand the trendline problem... it was one I faced too. All I suggest is keep it simple. If you have too much on your screen you will sub-consciously or even consciously cause yourself to over-analyse your charts. I'm not saying go in blind, but do be careful that you don't overload your senses!

[color=black][font=Verdana]I guess you are taking "88-105" because you are using a pip by pip stop loss. I don't - I use a round number stop loss! That is, if I enter at 1.1500 and price gets to 1.1525 I...
You have been a great help.

As for the TSL example, yes there is a pip by pip movement. It is set at 100 pips. So, once a enter at 1.5, the S/L is moved to BE when the price reaches 1.6 . After, that it moves on a pip to pip basis:
1.6007 -> 1.5007
1.6034 -> 1.5034

and so on.
  • #55
  • Feb 27, 2010 4:16pm Feb 27, 2010 4:16pm
Dan,

How do you get your charts to display only the round numbers on the vertical scale bar? Are you using MT4? I've looked all over trying to find a good solution.

It looks like you have an indicator that "overlays" the vertical scale.

Thanks!

PippyD
  • #56
  • Feb 28, 2010 12:06am Feb 28, 2010 12:06am
Quoting PippyD
Dan,

How do you get your charts to display only the round numbers on the vertical scale bar? Are you using MT4? I've looked all over trying to find a good solution.

It looks like you have an indicator that "overlays" the vertical scale.

Thanks!

PippyD
I believe it is a indicator called "Sweet Spots".
  • #57
  • Feb 28, 2010 5:58pm Feb 28, 2010 5:58pm
Quoting PippyD
Dan,

How do you get your charts to display only the round numbers on the vertical scale bar? Are you using MT4? I've looked all over trying to find a good solution.

It looks like you have an indicator that "overlays" the vertical scale.

Thanks!

PippyD
Hi PippyD

Try this. Copy and save to metratrader4/experts/indicators.
Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 SpacedLines.ex4   5 KB | 573 downloads

Hope this helps.
cheers
Mitch
  • #58
  • Feb 28, 2010 9:01pm Feb 28, 2010 9:01pm
Quoting MitchOZ
Hi PippyD

Try this. Copy and save to metratrader4/experts/indicators.
Attachment
Hope this helps.
cheers
Mitch
Thanks Mitch. I'll give it a try.
  • #59
  • Feb 28, 2010 9:04pm Feb 28, 2010 9:04pm
Quoting vicky_ag
I believe it is a indicator called "Sweet Spots".
Hi Vicky Ag,

I've tried the Sweets Spots indicator but it still leaves the default numbers on the vertical bar. It would be nice to just turn them off or reconfigure so that only the RNs showed. This is not a huge deal but I find my vertical scale cluttered by all the levels, especially those I don't care about.

Thank you for the suggestion.

PippyD
  • #60
  • Feb 28, 2010 11:00pm Feb 28, 2010 11:00pm
well the only other way u can do this, although obviously yes i agree id love for mt4 just to have ROUND numbers i have no idea why they dont the idiots.
a. make sure u dont have the indy as run in background
b. u can dim the foreground chart for near black if u want and have spacedlines white then u will only get clear rounds and nothing else. obviously then it dims everything else out like what pair ur looking at which sucks

but thats the only options

i dont think its that bigger deal anyway.
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