EUR/CHF

I read that too... seems like 4635 now but it will always be give some pips.

EUR is strengtening, SNB is on allert now and earlyer they did a big intervening afther 3 days of EUR strengtening, it might come later this week ?

bearish potential


-----------------

Carry trade strategy

EURCHF is coming closer to the interesting zone again

an easy strike once again. I love this game

Finally, had been waiting now once it hit 47.

Wonder why SNB dont lift EURCHF over 1.50 ?, now with this small 40pip up it will always be pushed back to 1.4640.
With a big intervene up to 1.53 everybody will be afraid to short it down heavily again and SNB would be happy with a less pressure on export industry.

any comment?

no, makes no sense to me either, people sell it as soon as it goes up, and this time only 40 pips, you need to take some good size lots for a small push.

Wish I knew what their line of thinking was, maybe they're cash strapped?

"Cash strapped" ? No bank with its own mint can ever run out of its own currency . Look at the Fed - they needed a trillion - "Sure, you have it!", they just push the button and print one
I believe that it's more like market ethics. They've been bad boys already but if they get too rude nobody else will want to play with them anymore.

yeah, I was joking.I suppose the more inconspicuous they are the less slack they get.

My thinking is there is too much selling pressure on the Euro itself b/c of the challenges their facing right now. I wonder if SNB feels that doing small shots for now is better than a huge one. It could very well be that a huge push up would only result in a re-tracement that does not produce the results they want to achieve. After all, look how quickly price re-traces after they intervene. Now magnify the small moves to one big move. That would be one serious re-tracement. Make sense? Now it could very well be that a push back above 1.50 would back the sellers off, however, it all depends on how much the Swiss's own banks need to de-leverage. Switzerland's banks are mainly the culprits who are selling b/c of their unwinding from foreign/risky assets. The higher the price is pushed back up, the better the price for the banks to un-wind (sell) from their positions.

You better believe that SNB will keep defending the 4640 area since they reported a -3.6% in their exports earlier today. A reflection of a stronger franc, which they don't want.

Whatever their reasoning is I just want to thank them personally for making my quota for the month

lol... good for you. Price keeps missing my buy limits. I had a buy limit at 4640 up until last Friday when they intervened twice and I missed by one pip the first time. So since last Friday I placed a buy at 4645, and again it just missed by a couple of pips. DOH! I guess 4650 will be the number to use...lol

I'm suggesting not to stick to the last weeks limits and always use money management, next intervention may come on much lower levels. We're getting close to the big one.

Not sure if we'll see "the big one". I have a hunch SNB will just keep doing small shots like they have been until their economy is out of the woods. Although, as I said before, their trade balance report last night showed exports have declined, and that is due to a stronger franc. SO with that being said, I hope my hunch is wrong as I still am holding from above 1.50.

did you take a buy dual?

I did at 4650. I hit the trigger when it was on 4648, but quickly jumped to 50. I have a tight SL just in case SNB doesn't jump in anytime soon.

Went long @ 1.4645

you got it, congrats just missed me by a few pips.

It is friday and raining here. Makes me want to stay inside and drink beer.

I wouldnt recommend you drink beer and trade currencies, LOL, ummm well i think you know why LMAO.

good going I am with you at 47. No beer but lots of Baileys .