Hi Quantisan...
well to me on daily chart trend seems still a downtrend but in a 4-hour chart if u observe still the movement is sideways...
ru still holding ur short?
Hi Quantisan...
well to me on daily chart trend seems still a downtrend but in a 4-hour chart if u observe still the movement is sideways...
ru still holding ur short?
Ignored
I agree, not all the stars are aligned yet. It's testing 4780 sup right now, perhaps third time's the charm?
I'll be looking to hedge my longs and short this pair once their is some decent retracement (if it does at all). Made back some of my losses this week trading other pairs. I'll slowly take some of the drawdown off the table as I make back what I lost, that way it doesn't hurt me too bad ;o)
With all the recent news releases from Switzerland coming out negative this week, I gotta think that (opinion only) SNB doesn't want the franc to strengthen too much at this time. However, if they do intervene, I don't think the interventions will be as big as what we saw earlier in 2009.
I myself got caught on the wrong side of this pair since 1.51 and have added longs all the way down....
Ignored
I wouldn't advise on shorting this pair at 1.48 or 1.49. SNB is likely to intervene soon. Market is just testing SNB's resolve. Interest rate outlook for Switzerland is still very low and they are likely to lag behind the ECB is rate hiking. I'm targeting 1.51 over the next two months still. This is just a wash-out of the shit ton of euro-swiss longs that there were above 1.50. With equity markets looking bullish, the swiss franc is going to take in some shorts due to carry trades. But yea, this drop below 1.50 was really unexpected. Just hold on and let the idiots shorting this pair expecting long-term gains be nailed by the SNB.
Number #1 in PnL and Pips on Dukascopy Trader Contest since 2011
I wouldn't advise on shorting this pair at 1.48 or 1.49. SNB is likely to intervene soon. Market is just testing SNB's resolve. Interest rate outlook for Switzerland is still very low and they are likely to lag behind the ECB is rate hiking. I'm targeting 1.51 over the next two months still. This is just a wash-out of the shit ton of euro-swiss longs that there were above 1.50. With equity markets looking bullish, the swiss franc is going to take in some shorts due to carry trades. But yea, this drop below 1.50 was really unexpected. Just hold on...
Ignored
I know that Swiss banks are doing a lot of de-leveraging from risky assets which is why we're seeing the Franc strengthening as they expatriate. I gotta wonder if SNB is waiting for their own banks to get what they can off their books and then intervene. And, as their banks de-leverage, everyone else is thinking to start shorting. For SNB to get the most bang for their buck, they need more shorts than they do longs between where it's at now and to where they want Eur/Chf to be. Only speculating here. I stand to be corrected as I really don't know what truly goes on behind closed doors. Some are saying that it will go down to 1.4577, support level from last year and even further down to 1.43 area where it went low in 2008. What I would like to know is, are those areas considered "excessive"? I know that no gov't or central bank can keep a currency at any controlled level forever, but I also know the Swiss have very deep pockets to intervene. They need their exporters making money or else their own economy will not recover.
I know that Swiss banks are doing a lot of de-leveraging from risky assets which is why we're seeing the Franc strengthening as they expatriate....
Ignored
Considering that December CPI readings were absolute crap(and much of this was probably due to the higher franc), I highly doubt we'll see Euro-swiss much lower. Looking at the charts from a technical point of view, yes, 1.43 is in cards. But the SNB just isn't going to let that happen. If Swiss banks are deleveraging now by selling off assets abroad, they would benefit if the franc were weaker. However, if they plan on buying assets abroad, they would benefit from a stronger franc.
One of the problems with continuously intervening above 1.5000 is that there were a ton of bids on euro-swiss already in play and they just sold off on the SNB's spikes, so it didn't work too well. What's good is that the declines in euro-swiss are washing out a lot of the bids that are still there. If they do choose to intervene at these levels or below, it'll be far more effective than before.
But yea, I've read from Commerzbank that they see the new pain threshold for the SNB to be at lowest 1.45-1.46.
From a technical perspective, EURCHF is wayyy oversold. Daily RSI is 20, and we've been floating under 30, oversold levels, since December 18th. Floating at these levels in RSI for this long of a time is very rare. Eventually the RSI is going to have to ease up to test 50. I'm just hoping we don't see some consolidation in a range from like 1.47-1.49(that definitely is a possibility).
But with global equities looking bullish and central bank rate hikes coming soon leading to yield differentials growing in the G10 relative to CHF, we will see CHF shorts loaded as it will be a funding currency. I really doubt we'll see anything below 1.45. That's just going to tip Switzerland back into a deflationary environment(in fact current levels may already have tipped Switzerland into deflation). I'm pretty confident we'll see above 1.5+ in the coming months. It could happen quicker than we think if the market freaks out over an SNB intervention and/or if they intervene aggressively. From the interventions I've seen, they've always managed to push up EURCHF a quick 100 pips, and that's with a ton of EURCHF longs unloading on the spikes.
Number #1 in PnL and Pips on Dukascopy Trader Contest since 2011
I actually took a chance and was able to short it on friday from the 10 ma daily mov.avg. at 1.4824 and tp before weekend close at 1.4754 for 70 pips and was able to use that profit to take some of my drawdown off my longs. Still have more than I would like on the table. Hope to see SNB this week, my pysche is getting worn down from being in this drawdown position since mid December...lol.
I actually took a chance and was able to short it on friday from the 10 ma daily mov.avg. at 1.4824 and tp before weekend close at 1.4754 for 70 pips and was able to use that profit to take some of my drawdown off my longs. Still have more than I would like on the table. Hope to see SNB this week, my pysche is getting worn down from being in this drawdown position since mid December...lol.
dual-c
Ignored
yea dude, it blows. in $400K drawdown here. oh well. i'm holding till 1.50+ and nowhere before. I've been waiting everyday since the 18th on SNB intervention. Good move making money on the short-side. Anywho, I've learned my lesson and am never ever ever going to try to rely on CB interventions to make money. It was fun while it lasted though, until December 18th...
Number #1 in PnL and Pips on Dukascopy Trader Contest since 2011
thanks
SNB might bump USDCHF instead like on Dec 3th. they've got a bigger prob there. Just a guess from charts, I am no economist.
Ignored
Not really. The SNB is mainly focused on the EUR/CHF cross due to the fact that it has more of an impact on export earnings and inflation than the USD/CHF cross. Beyond that, the SNB Monetary policy clearly states that they are intent on preventing "excessive appreication" versus the euro, so has speeches from their governing board shown much more interest in changing the currency value. Beyond that, interventions on USD/CHF would still have a massive effect on EUR/CHF. They have acted on USD/CHF to bump up EUR/CHF before. But bottom line if they buy either Euro's or USD's with CHF, it would have the effect on causing the CHF to go down.
Number #1 in PnL and Pips on Dukascopy Trader Contest since 2011
Anywho, I've learned my lesson and am never ever ever going to try to rely on CB interventions to make money. It was fun while it lasted though, until December 18th...
Sharp rise on E/Chf. FXNews on Oanda just reported that SNB still prepared to intervene in the market. We'll see what happens. Will be interesting to see where they take if they do.
