Cable Update (GBPUSD)

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LONG
EUR/USD 1.4283 - 1.4263
GBP/USD 1.5887 - 1.5861
AUD/USD 0.9138


SHORT
USD/CHF 0.0377 - 0.0387
USD/CAD 1.0377 - 1.0387

hope it work as accurat as before.

Looks like she headed for support again.....

M15 just confirm up.

Lets see if this downwards when rebound will break it

15 min chart looks like putting in a symmetrical triangle which is not an impulsive move to the upside. Can be read as a 4th wave before final move down. That would cause the 4 hr chart to end up having an extended 5th wave as mentioned earlier. 5878 is lower of my target range from yesterday and may still be in play.
Good old tricky cable.

If this time she didn't break it, just could be as you say, 'good old tricky cable'

Hmmm, my analysis says she will break to the upside....

Yeah, I'm long the breakout of the triangle and bottom formation on the 15m. Shooting for 5990-6000 area.

yeh kinda very slow

John J. Hardy, FX Consultant, Saxo Bank

FX Closing Note: Nonfarm payrolls scenarios for tomorrow

Market Action
Few developments in today's NY session worth significant focus after a rather heavy news flow in Asia and Europe. EURUSD has mostly fibrillated within a two-figure range over the last three weeks, which likely sets up a break-out day for the greenback one way or another after tomorrow's US employment report. The noise on the street seems to be leaning towards a positive data point, so a very positive data point may be necessary to move the markets beyond what is already priced in (we offer a few scenarios at the end of this article on the market’s reaction to the employment report). As pointed out in our articles from earlier today, the statistical assumptions and adjustments will give a positive bias to the numbers, and are potentially rather large. The real state of the job market is still worrisome if we consider the ISM non-manufacturing employment sub-index from Wednesday.

Looking ahead
US employment report is now in the crosshairs for tomorrow with near unanimous expectations for a positive number, so we may need a barn-burner to move markets beyond their current ranges. A trio of potential scenarios for tomorrow:

One: a massive upside surprise in payrolls triggers a hefty spike higher in interest rates. Could this finally test every-rising asset markets? After all, isn't much of the current rise in asset markets predicated on "low rates forever"? This would seem to offer the most downside for the pro-risk currencies like AUD and NZD and possibly also CAD

Two: The data is inline to slightly positive and bonds rally since an even better reading is already priced into the market. In this scenario, the market is simply discounting seasonal factors in the numbers and we see a more. If asset markets fall as well, the JPY would benefit the most in this scenario and the USD would likely suffer along with commodity currencies.

Three: Strong data, strong risk-positive reaction and bonds fall heavily. This is the strongest scenario for the USD.

I just got stopped out at 5930maybe I had my SL placed to tight.....

Will look to go long again but only on higher volume up move

OK buyers… Come out come out where ever you are we need this lady to pull up her price. Well at least 50% today and give us a show.

My stop was a little bit lower. Not real enthusiastic about this trade but I'm letting it ride.

I am waiting for 1.5860 touch after that will go long

Still supported by the 30m chart...break to northside is not unreasonable....

If price carries to close above the 24SMA on the hourly...there might be a trade worth getting a little more excited about. Deflection here, wouldn't get caught holding the basket...

Red resistance...green, support.

Your "red" bar is right at the 38.2 fib so if it doesn't break that is an acceptable pull back target. If it makes it through the 38.2% level 50% is at 1.5977.

Good trades.

Correct, which happens to be the hourly 55EMA line @ 1.5977.

Fibs n moving averages...PA made EZ.

Well...Cable Aficionados...

This pair is playing "hard to get" ATM...she deflated back down to my entry and sitting around that level as we speak

On the daily there is a falling wedge and price is testing the vertex right now...this is usually a bullish formation...also keep in mind tomorrow's NFP

as long as bears don't demonstrate true resolve these kinds of half-hearted attempts at shaking out won't have any bearing

As a result I am still maintaining my long position for the time being...

Hi Slick,

thanks, glad you find my contributions useful...

Interesting analysis you got there yourself.

Would today's leg down count as completion of the base retest or do we need to probe even lower based on your analysis?