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DanUK Simple EUR/USD Trading Journal 2009

  • #461
  • Sep 22, 2009 2:05am Sep 22, 2009 2:05am
Quoting truckjrt
Im in at 1.6222 and again at 1.6200. At first I thought I missed the bottom after reading ya'lls post about jumping in at 1.62, but luckily the price dropped back enough to pick up my second entry.


Now here is a question I haven't seen addressed. When you guys open a trade do you do it all at once or ease in at multiple levels?

If your 2% trade = 3 lots do you buy them at once at 1.62? or
do you buy one at say 1.62 another at 1.6225 and the last at 1.625?

My thoughts are if the market turns before your second or third entry opens you are...
Hi,

Personally I am all in or all out... I prefer to trade that way because it is simple, and I try to do things as simply as possible!

I can see the benefits of buying in stages and I wouldn't argue against doing it, but it's not for me!

Regards,

Dan
  • #462
  • Sep 22, 2009 2:17am Sep 22, 2009 2:17am
Quoting drandycollings
Thanks

Just as a follow on . What constitutes a "proven change of direction" For example H4 support line recently broken on H4 but would you wait for a daily trendline break or just a simple break and rechallenge as we had on EU on 18th ?

Ta
Hi Andy,

I am quite conservative about a proven change of direction. Generally I like to see the break and retest of a major trendline... that is one that price has been respecting over a long period of time and ideally shows up on a daily chart as well as H4. I also like to see a change of swing high and lows, so if we were going up and the trend was changing I would want to see lower highs and lower lows. And finally I also like to confirm that with major support and resistance levels... that is the horizontal s/r levels that show up on a weekly chart. I consider these to be milestones along the forex map... if we are going down I want to see them broken and retested... but if we seem to be going down and get to one of these points and can't break through - that to me would be an important sign that we have not yet changed direction!

If I could refer you to this chart, it is a pretty good example:
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...0&d=1242153812 the only thing I haven't marked on this chart is the "major" s/r level - in this case it was the 1.4200-1.4300 area.

Hope that helps.

Regards,

Dan
  • #463
  • Sep 22, 2009 2:20am Sep 22, 2009 2:20am
Quoting IliaM
had my order at 6200 but it was never filled.

at what point do you let go of the trade and not chase it? is there a certain amount of pips u let it slip by?
Hi IliaM,

That is unfortunate. Is your broker playing tricks on you!

If the trade has gone by up to 25 pips then I may get in but if it's over that I would probably pass on it! It's one of those unfortunate things about trading.

Regards,

Dan
  • #464
  • Sep 22, 2009 2:22am Sep 22, 2009 2:22am
Quoting coolshades
dan,

will you be watching this line too, and if it breaks, a possible long?
Hi,

Yes I will be watching for a break and retest. It's not my preferred entry into the market but it's hard to ignore the upward momentum at the moment!

Regards,

Dan
  • #465
  • Sep 22, 2009 3:22am Sep 22, 2009 3:22am
HI all looks like the 16200 entry was a good call yesterday we are now at break even.
  • #466
  • Sep 22, 2009 4:07am Sep 22, 2009 4:07am
Quoting truckjrt
Im in at 1.6222 and again at 1.6200. At first I thought I missed the bottom after reading ya'lls post about jumping in at 1.62, but luckily the price dropped back enough to pick up my second entry.


Now here is a question I haven't seen addressed. When you guys open a trade do you do it all at once or ease in at multiple levels?

If your 2% trade = 3 lots do you buy them at once at 1.62? or
do you buy one at say 1.62 another at 1.6225 and the last at 1.625?

My thoughts are if the market turns before your second or third entry opens you are...
Hi truckjrt.

Just adding to what Dan said and I agree with him. I personally like to keep it simple as possible. Im either all in or all out, same as with my losses, i dont average them down, if that makes sense to you...

However, this does not mean that scaling cant be done, there are many traders that do. But your best bet would be to test and compare over a series of trades. Compare your results scaling in/out and compare them to all in/out. you may be surprised.

At the end its entirely up to you and how comfortable you feel. You must be comfortable when you trade.

Hope that helps
  • #467
  • Sep 22, 2009 4:17am Sep 22, 2009 4:17am
1.4800 on the Euro looks like a point of interest, we might see a bounce off of this number, rising trendline with a round number suggests there could be a bit of stalling here. With this in mind, would you take a sell on this (against the trend) or wait till it retraces and then look for a buy?
  • #468
  • Sep 22, 2009 4:31am Sep 22, 2009 4:31am
Never mind, I missed that reply you made to Coolshades, I suppose saying to you trading trading against the trend will have put a shiver up your spine. But, should there be a bounce off the 1.4800 at what point would you consider entering long again? 50% retrace of the move from 1.4200 or 50% retrace from 1.4500? a middle trendline suggests price may retrace to 1.4600. I suppose we just have to wait and see what's in traders heads when price reaches these points.
  • #469
  • Sep 22, 2009 4:57am Sep 22, 2009 4:57am
Quoting castlerock
HI all looks like the 16200 entry was a good call yesterday we are now at break even.
Yes I would like to think we might squeeze at least 100 pips out of this one. The first obstacle I see is around 1.6400 which is around the 50% of the latest swing and an intermediate resistance trendline. If we make it through that the next obstacle will be the upper resistance trendline around 1.6600 at the moment.

That is purely speculation of course... anything can and will happen! Just keep trailing that stop and if we're lucky we'll make some !

Regards,

Dan
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  • #470
  • Sep 22, 2009 5:02am Sep 22, 2009 5:02am
Quoting Xj8
Never mind, I missed that reply you made to Coolshades, I suppose saying to you trading trading against the trend will have put a shiver up your spine. But, should there be a bounce off the 1.4800 at what point would you consider entering long again? 50% retrace of the move from 1.4200 or 50% retrace from 1.4500? a middle trendline suggests price may retrace to 1.4600. I suppose we just have to wait and see what's in traders heads when price reaches these points.
Yeah there's no way I would be shorting the Euro at the moment; far too risky in my opinion. It is a hard one to call when price doesn't retrace when you might expect it to. Often a trade setup just looks far to good to be true... like a retracement down to the 1.4400 - 1.4500 area.

We are at 1.4800 at the moment - for me the area is 1.4800 - 1.4900. It wouldn't be a surprise to see price come down from here but anything is possible! We'll just have to wait and see!

Regards,

Dan
  • #471
  • Sep 22, 2009 6:44am Sep 22, 2009 6:44am
Quoting Xj8
Never mind, I missed that reply you made to Coolshades, I suppose saying to you trading trading against the trend will have put a shiver up your spine. But, should there be a bounce off the 1.4800 at what point would you consider entering long again? 50% retrace of the move from 1.4200 or 50% retrace from 1.4500? a middle trendline suggests price may retrace to 1.4600. I suppose we just have to wait and see what's in traders heads when price reaches these points.
XJ8 I would say don't try to short E/U now. I was short at 1.47 hoping that I could pick a few pips on the retrace down, but was burned last night with the move up.

Now I have my head right and will be looking for a good entry point to go long.

Dan are you still thinking a retrace back down to 1.44-1.45 area? I was thinking about going long on a bit more moderate retrace of 1.47 or 1.465
  • #472
  • Sep 22, 2009 6:45am Sep 22, 2009 6:45am
Quoting Pipalicious
Hi truckjrt.

Just adding to what Dan said and I agree with him. I personally like to keep it simple as possible. Im either all in or all out, same as with my losses, i dont average them down, if that makes sense to you...

However, this does not mean that scaling cant be done, there are many traders that do. But your best bet would be to test and compare over a series of trades. Compare your results scaling in/out and compare them to all in/out. you may be surprised.

At the end its entirely up to you and how comfortable you feel. You...

Thanks Dan and Pip
  • #473
  • Sep 22, 2009 7:31am Sep 22, 2009 7:31am
Quoting truckjrt
Dan are you still thinking a retrace back down to 1.44-1.45 area? I was thinking about going long on a bit more moderate retrace of 1.47 or 1.465
In an ideal world yes I would like to see price come down to the 1.44 - 1.45 area. That level is the 50% retracement area, it is the prior resistance highs that may now provide support and depending on how long price takes to move down (assuming it does) it is also in the vicinity of a couple of trendlines. Another important factor is that area also shows up as a s/r area on the weekly charts.

Of course it may never see that area again... or it could break right through it! So that is what I would like to see but you can only trade what the chart gives you!

Regards,


Dan
  • #474
  • Sep 22, 2009 8:46am Sep 22, 2009 8:46am
I took my foot off the peddle and did not enter at 1.6200, I entered at 1.6250, SL 1.6150. The inside trendline is a concern, normally I would be exiting my demo account at the 50% retrace where there is confluence with the trendline, but I going to stick it with you boys and girls and see it go to at least the outer trendline (around 1.6000). And yes I'm biting my nails, I think I'll go and do the dishes, lol.
  • #475
  • Sep 22, 2009 10:36am Sep 22, 2009 10:36am
you should stop watching trades. the more you watch the more the chances of you doing something you will regret.



Quoting Xj8
And yes I'm biting my nails, I think I'll go and do the dishes, lol.
  • #476
  • Sep 22, 2009 10:39am Sep 22, 2009 10:39am
Just locked in 100 pips.

SL at 1.6300. Keeping an eye on it.
  • #477
  • Sep 22, 2009 10:50am Sep 22, 2009 10:50am
Quoting Xj8
I took my foot off the peddle and did not enter at 1.6200, I entered at 1.6250, SL 1.6150. The inside trendline is a concern, normally I would be exiting my demo account at the 50% retrace where there is confluence with the trendline, but I going to stick it with you boys and girls and see it go to at least the outer trendline (around 1.6000). And yes I'm biting my nails, I think I'll go and do the dishes, lol.
You should be in a position to move your stop to breakeven now so you are in a great position and have removed your risk. And like coolshades says, don't watch it... just let it go. Some of my best trades have been trades that I haven't even looked at for several days at a time (although that was in stocks rather than forex... but the same principle applies).

All you need to do now is trail your stop every 100 pips... if you stick solidly to the rules you will have a good chance at making it!

Regards,

Dan
  • #478
  • Sep 22, 2009 12:55pm Sep 22, 2009 12:55pm
Thanks for all the reply's, I did move my SL to breakeven, in my case that was 1.6250 so psychologically and practically it's a no lose trade, I'll lock in 100 pips when it reaches 1.6450. I realise I should have got in at 1.6200 after the rejection at 1.6150 and no close below the trendline, it's a learning curve.
  • #479
  • Sep 22, 2009 6:21pm Sep 22, 2009 6:21pm
Any thoughts on going long at 1.48? E/U seems to be holding at 1.48 but on the last few candles on the 4h chart the lows have been higher same with the 1H chart. Dan isn't that something you look for?
  • #480
  • Sep 23, 2009 3:10am Sep 23, 2009 3:10am
Quoting truckjrt
Any thoughts on going long at 1.48? E/U seems to be holding at 1.48 but on the last few candles on the 4h chart the lows have been higher same with the 1H chart. Dan isn't that something you look for?
Hi,

I tend to look for swing highs and swing lows rather than candle highs and lows.

I'm not keen on placing a long on E/U at the moment. For me it is too risky; there is a good chance we could go down from here. If we get a decent sized retracement then I will be interested or if we get above 1.48 and then come back down to retest it I may be interested.

Hope that makes sense!

Regards,

Dan
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