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DanUK Simple EUR/USD Trading Journal 2009

  • #441
  • Sep 21, 2009 5:25am Sep 21, 2009 5:25am
Quoting fxacs
Hello Dan,

Last week was very bad I had several failed trades on G/U. I thought a trend was reestablished, but I was so wrong. Looking forward to a better week.
Hi Fxacs,

Yes I thought the trend was going to resume too... but it hasn't yet! We are now at the lower level of the current range so I am watching to see how the trendline will hold. If it holds then I am thinking about going long. I am watching the charts at the moment to see if I should go for it!

Regards,

Dan
  • #442
  • Sep 21, 2009 6:16am Sep 21, 2009 6:16am
Quoting DanUK
Hi Fxacs,

Yes I thought the trend was going to resume too... but it hasn't yet! We are now at the lower level of the current range so I am watching to see how the trendline will hold. If it holds then I am thinking about going long. I am watching the charts at the moment to see if I should go for it!

Regards,

Dan
What do you mean by "trendline will hold" ? On my charts the price is still way bellow D1 trend line. What I see now is a key support level around 1.6110.
  • #443
  • Sep 21, 2009 7:00am Sep 21, 2009 7:00am
Quoting fxacs
What do you mean by "trendline will hold" ? On my charts the price is still way bellow D1 trend line. What I see now is a key support level around 1.6110.
I have the same 1.6110 support level, since G/U has been trading in a range for the past 3+ months. If price holds at 1.6110 are you thinking about going long?

Is there anything on the charts that suggest it could go lower?
  • #444
  • Sep 21, 2009 7:16am Sep 21, 2009 7:16am
Hello!

I second that.

Lots of support at 1.6100 - 1.6000.

I suppose its best to sit tight and see what kind of action we get near these levels. IMO its broken the dailies TL and we are ranging pretty heavily from the looks of it.
  • #445
  • Sep 21, 2009 7:24am Sep 21, 2009 7:24am
Quoting fxacs
What do you mean by "trendline will hold" ? On my charts the price is still way bellow D1 trend line. What I see now is a key support level around 1.6110.
Hi fxacs,

The lower support trendline that price is currently pushing on. I agree with 1.6000 - 1.6100 as a key support level - if this gets broken then we could be going down!

Regards,

Dan
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #446
  • Sep 21, 2009 9:48am Sep 21, 2009 9:48am
Hi Dan, I've been watching your threads with keen interest, I have always like support/resistance , trendlines and fibs for entries, your thread confirms everything I believe in. I have no moving averages or any other indicators, I solely trade using just the three points mentioned above. However, I used to trade only on 30 to 60 pip profit margin with a 33 pip SL, seeing your method has encouraged me to take bigger steps, so demo trading this method for a couple of months first.

What would you consider a confirmed break of the support trendline? 10, 20 100 pips or would you wait until there is hesitation at the 1.6100 and enter into a sell at 1.6100 if it retraced back to 1.6150.

I see conflict at the 1.6150 at the moment (16:00 GMT) the support line seems to be holding and I'm considering a buy at 1.6200, but possibly waiting until 1.6250 before actually pulling the trigger.
  • #447
  • Sep 21, 2009 10:05am Sep 21, 2009 10:05am
Took a buy gu @16200 thought there had been enough resistance @16150... might be a bit premature but how long do wait and at what point do you pull the trigger would waiting on it going back through the 16200 and comeing back to reject the 16150 been a better plan I think this is a point that a few here are watching and might be going through the same thing this is the point that no one can tell us the subjective area.
  • #448
  • Sep 21, 2009 10:18am Sep 21, 2009 10:18am
Hello.

Im in at 1.6200

Stop set at 1.6100

First "obstacle" will be 1.6250 - 1.6300 but hopefully get to break even by then.

We have in our favour strong historic support and upward TL. If you look at 1h you cna clearly see price is struggling to break 1.6110 ish.

So iŽll just let it do what its got to do.

What do you think Dan? Any suggestions? Am I seeing this correctly per your ideas?
  • #449
  • Sep 21, 2009 10:34am Sep 21, 2009 10:34am
thank you for last weeks reply, I just read it today.
  • #450
  • Sep 21, 2009 3:11pm Sep 21, 2009 3:11pm
Quoting Xj8
Hi Dan, I've been watching your threads with keen interest, I have always like support/resistance , trendlines and fibs for entries, your thread confirms everything I believe in. I have no moving averages or any other indicators, I solely trade using just the three points mentioned above. However, I used to trade only on 30 to 60 pip profit margin with a 33 pip SL, seeing your method has encouraged me to take bigger steps, so demo trading this method for a couple of months first.

What would you consider a confirmed break of the support trendline?...
Hi Xj8,

Are you a Jaguar fan by any chance? I used to have an XJ8 - it was a beautiful car!

Ideally for a support line to be broken & confirmed what I would like to see is for it to break past the support line; say for example our support line is at 1.6150 - I would like to see it go to say 1.6100 then pull back to retest either the support line or the level that it broke out from - in this case the 1.6150 level and then for it to move away again (i.e. back towards 1.6100 and beyond). In that case I would be short as we went through 1.6100 again.

Of course we don't always get confirmation that the support level has turned into a resistance level... in that case it's a matter of gut call. I prefer not to chase a trade so I would rather get in either after the "retest" or after a retracement... although that of course means missing out on some pips!

I bought at 1.6200; I am hoping this will be a fork in the road trade like my last E/U position. I would like to see a trend take shape again and the sooner that happens, the better!

Regards,

Dan
  • #451
  • Sep 21, 2009 3:15pm Sep 21, 2009 3:15pm
Quoting castlerock
Took a buy gu @16200 thought there had been enough resistance @16150... might be a bit premature but how long do wait and at what point do you pull the trigger would waiting on it going back through the 16200 and comeing back to reject the 16150 been a better plan I think this is a point that a few here are watching and might be going through the same thing this is the point that no one can tell us the subjective area.
Hi Castlerock,

I too am in (long) at 1.6200. In my opinion it is a reasonable place to take a trade but not under the best circumstances (i.e. due to the fact that we don't have any real trend defined yet).

Time to sit back and let the market work... the most important thing now is to follow your exit plan. For me this is simple; if it goes up I will trail my stop; if it goes down I will get taken out at 1.6100 - simple rules!

Regards,

Dan
  • #452
  • Sep 21, 2009 3:18pm Sep 21, 2009 3:18pm
Quoting Pipalicious
Hello.

Im in at 1.6200

Stop set at 1.6100

First "obstacle" will be 1.6250 - 1.6300 but hopefully get to break even by then.

We have in our favour strong historic support and upward TL. If you look at 1h you cna clearly see price is struggling to break 1.6110 ish.

So iŽll just let it do what its got to do.

What do you think Dan? Any suggestions? Am I seeing this correctly per your ideas?
Hi Pipalicious,

Yep, I agree with your thoughts. I am in at 1.6200 too; so it's time to sit back and wait.

"So iŽll just let it do what its got to do."

That's it - let the market work; don't mess with the trade - even if it goes wrong. Stick to your plan!

Regards,

Dan
  • #453
  • Sep 21, 2009 3:19pm Sep 21, 2009 3:19pm
Quoting IliaM
thank you for last weeks reply, I just read it today.
No problem!
  • #454
  • Sep 21, 2009 6:24pm Sep 21, 2009 6:24pm
I appreciate your insite regarding a confirmed breakout (or as near to a confirmed breakout as anyone can get). Your observations regarding my choice of name are correct, and I'm in this game to see that I'm driving one in the not too distant future. Look forward to sharing further trades with you.
  • #455
  • Sep 21, 2009 6:36pm Sep 21, 2009 6:36pm
Quoting Pipalicious
Hello.

Im in at 1.6200

Stop set at 1.6100

First "obstacle" will be 1.6250 - 1.6300 but hopefully get to break even by then.

We have in our favour strong historic support and upward TL. If you look at 1h you cna clearly see price is struggling to break 1.6110 ish.

So iŽll just let it do what its got to do.

What do you think Dan? Any suggestions? Am I seeing this correctly per your ideas?
Im in at 1.6222 and again at 1.6200. At first I thought I missed the bottom after reading ya'lls post about jumping in at 1.62, but luckily the price dropped back enough to pick up my second entry.


Now here is a question I haven't seen addressed. When you guys open a trade do you do it all at once or ease in at multiple levels?

If your 2% trade = 3 lots do you buy them at once at 1.62? or
do you buy one at say 1.62 another at 1.6225 and the last at 1.625?

My thoughts are if the market turns before your second or third entry opens you are somewhat protected with it only going south with only one or two lots.
  • #456
  • Sep 21, 2009 9:06pm Sep 21, 2009 9:06pm
Thanks

Just as a follow on . What constitutes a "proven change of direction" For example H4 support line recently broken on H4 but would you wait for a daily trendline break or just a simple break and rechallenge as we had on EU on 18th ?

Ta
  • #457
  • Sep 22, 2009 1:51am Sep 22, 2009 1:51am
had my order at 6200 but it was never filled.

at what point do you let go of the trade and not chase it? is there a certain amount of pips u let it slip by?
  • #458
  • Sep 22, 2009 1:59am Sep 22, 2009 1:59am
Hi Dan

Just wanna say Hi. I am a Jacko's turtle & been following your thread. Admire your ability to apply Jacko's principles to other Fx pairs. Thanks for the lovely charts too.

Are you a Jacko's turtle? Trading full time? If so how long have you been trading?

Besides EU & GU what other pairs do u actively trade?

Thanks
"Thinking Heart & Feeling Brain"
  • #459
  • Sep 22, 2009 2:01am Sep 22, 2009 2:01am
dan,

will you be watching this line too, and if it breaks, a possible long?

Quoting DanUK
No problem!
  • #460
  • Sep 22, 2009 2:02am Sep 22, 2009 2:02am
Quoting Xj8
I appreciate your insite regarding a confirmed breakout (or as near to a confirmed breakout as anyone can get). Your observations regarding my choice of name are correct, and I'm in this game to see that I'm driving one in the not too distant future. Look forward to sharing further trades with you.
Nice one! I'm a big Jag fan too... as you can probably tell from my picture! I've been seriously considering getting the new XKR but at the moment I am putting all my savings into my trading accounts!

Regards,

Dan
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