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Ichimoku forever

  • #1,561
  • Sep 6, 2009 3:17pm Sep 6, 2009 3:17pm
Quoting wolfan71
Hello all
Kumo Warriors are pleased to offer you USDCAD forecast.
Cheers
Hi Guy's

When you create your reports, how do they become pdf's?

Scavenger

ps, Def. Guy's generic for Guy's and Gal's. I'm lazy.
fxScavenger Arrogance is just Ignorance misspelled. abso-PIPn-lutely
  • #1,562
  • Sep 6, 2009 3:32pm Sep 6, 2009 3:32pm
Hi Everyone,

Attached is the weekly analysis for the GBP/JPY pair.

Please feel free to provide any feedback or ask any questions.

The only caveat on this analysis is that the US and Canada are on holidays tomorrow (Monday) and this will leave us once again with a low volume market so the likelihood of magnified volatility and irrational market behaviour is once again higher than normal.

With this is mind, take care and hope you sneak a few pips out while the banks aren't watching.

Cheers!

P.S - if you ever want to read through previous reports click on the link in this message signatire for the report archive. Also, feel free to send any longer more complex questions to the email address at the bottom of the message.
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf GBYJPYweekly-06-Sep-2009.pdf   111 KB | 458 downloads
  • #1,563
  • Sep 6, 2009 3:36pm Sep 6, 2009 3:36pm
Just as Vic said: Bank Holiday so watch out!
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf weekly 9 7.pdf   121 KB | 399 downloads
  • #1,564
  • Sep 6, 2009 3:47pm Sep 6, 2009 3:47pm
Quoting fxScavenger
Hi Guy's

When you create your reports, how do they become pdf's?

Scavenger

ps, Def. Guy's generic for Guy's and Gal's. I'm lazy.
Hi Scavenger,

If you download "open office" suite which is a free equivalent to MS Office you can use the "writer" program to create and edit word documents.

Once you open a word doc you can export it to a pdf file from within the "file menu".

Alternatively, if you have the full version of Adobe Acrobat (no just acrobat reader) on your pc you can select the print option from the file menu and "adobe PDF" will be listed in the printers drop down box.

Select Adobe PDF as your printer and it will then ask you to name the file and select the location to save it.

Instead of printing a document, it prints it to a pdf image file and saves it on your PC.

Hope that helped.

Cheers.
  • #1,565
  • Sep 6, 2009 4:25pm Sep 6, 2009 4:25pm
Just wanting to pass my thoughts along.

Mainly, If gold can hit 1000.00 the aud/usd pair may get drug up to .8750. Watch equity and oil prices and be prepared to go long or short on usd/jpy and eur/usd. Also if gold goes up, the USD index may break support at 77.50 allowing oil to go long.

It's not easy, that is why you need to trade what you see.

I know that there may be good moves in the euro session up till 7 am est.

I'm not a fundamental trader but you have to stay aware of market happenings. I say reduced lots and half targets if prices range-maybe we can get a good run in a session before the NY holiday?

Happy pippin!
  • #1,566
  • Sep 6, 2009 4:34pm Sep 6, 2009 4:34pm
Quoting calderone
I know what you are saying. Put some pips in your bank and remember-there will always be another signal. I plan on moving my stop when on a strong pair or closing half my position and banking my pips.

Make this system yours, demo your ideas.

Cheers!
Yes, a bird in the hand.... I'm thinking though that unlike the entries, which require a lot of trader decision re: upper TFs and multiple scenarios, the exit could lend itself to an exit EA. Maybe peeling off in thirds. First third to cover yourself, say 30pips or so, second third closing at a TK flip and let the rest ride either to the kumo or trader manual exit. I'm not adept enough at the whole Ichi thing yet, but I'm gonna keep it in mind and if I get around to coding something like it I'll upload. Onward Kumo soldiers! (insert musical icon here)
  • #1,567
  • Sep 6, 2009 4:39pm Sep 6, 2009 4:39pm
Quoting 4xAddict
Hi Scavenger,

If you download "open office" suite which is a free equivalent to MS Office you can use the "writer" program to create and edit word documents.
Hope that helped.

Cheers.
Hey 4xAddict,

Thanks, I do have Open Office so I'm good to go.
I think my first charge will be at the AU... but with the US off partying for the long Labor Day W/E I think any prdictions prior to Monday night would prove fruitless.
But what the heck, practice is good also.
fxScavenger Arrogance is just Ignorance misspelled. abso-PIPn-lutely
  • #1,568
  • Sep 6, 2009 6:26pm Sep 6, 2009 6:26pm
Hello fellow traders,

Here is the GPBUSD weekly analysis.

Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf GBPUSDweekly06-Sep-2009.pdf   108 KB | 432 downloads


As 4xAddict mentioned you can now view team member post by clicking the link below!!!
Monday is a US holiday so trading will be thin. use caution....

Wishing everyone a green pip week!!!
Attitude can reflect outcome in life and trading!
  • #1,569
  • Sep 6, 2009 6:29pm Sep 6, 2009 6:29pm
Quoting calderone
Just wanting to pass my thoughts along.

Mainly, If gold can hit 1000.00 the aud/usd pair may get drug up to .8750. Watch equity and oil prices and be prepared to go long or short on usd/jpy and eur/usd. Also if gold goes up, the USD index may break support at 77.50 allowing oil to go long.

Happy pippin!
Can't talk much today. Let's just remember USDX and Gold "inverse correlation" did NOT hold true during the financial crisis in fact during this period USDJPY and XAUUSD became highly correlated, i.e. during times of financial stress gold and USD become correlated.
  • #1,570
  • Sep 6, 2009 6:49pm Sep 6, 2009 6:49pm
Hi all,
Just wanted to share my personal thoughts on Money Management..
As of now my philosophy is to manage the risk and let profits run..

So how do I do this? hmmm?

Well first of all I try to reduce risk as quickly as possible.
I do this by taking profits (usually 1/2 of the trade) at the first lull in price action.. this usually seems to take place at the first S/R levels..or sometimes it is as simple as just setting a pip gain of +25-30 pips..
I then move my stop to B/E...
I now have a free trade on with profits in the bank..

If trade continues in my direction I like the idea of trailing my stop from this point using the Kinjun..
If price action seems choppy I think I will start looking at the Kinjun on the next time frame up...
This will give the trade a chance to develop maximizing my gains...

Any comments are welcome as I continue to grow with all of your knowledge..

Krmo
Attitude can reflect outcome in life and trading!
  • #1,571
  • Sep 6, 2009 7:03pm Sep 6, 2009 7:03pm
Quoting sinner-
Can't talk much today. Let's just remember USDX and Gold "inverse correlation" did NOT hold true during the financial crisis in fact during this period USDJPY and XAUUSD became highly correlated, i.e. during times of financial stress gold and USD become correlated.
Not sure about that... every currency versus the USD (i.e. EURUSD, GBPUSD etc) plummeted during the crisis. The USDJPY did the opposite and went up, but then again the EURUSD would do the same if it was expressed as USDEUR (you see what I'm getting at?).

If you look at the performance of the dollar index and the price of gold in US dollars, during the financial crisis, the dollar index jumped up while the price of gold decreased. Now with all the inflation that central banks are pumping into the economy, the dollar is retracing it's steps prior to the crisis which means gold will get strong as the dollar gets weaker.

That's my analysis anyway.
  • #1,572
  • Sep 6, 2009 7:34pm Sep 6, 2009 7:34pm
Posted at shared files as well.

Just noticed e/u just made daily high from Friday. I wonder what European session has in store for us? For all the traders interested in Ichi-the 1 hr kijun sen is holding the 50.0 fib level-intersting huh? lol
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf Eur Usd daily 9 6.pdf   77 KB | 476 downloads
  • #1,573
  • Edited 8:25pm Sep 6, 2009 7:42pm | Edited 8:25pm
Hi All,

Here is the Aud/Usd weekly and daily reports. Calderone were you looking over my shoulder when i wrote ? I knew you made a comment to me about gold but our numbers were pretty close. LOL!

Enjoy all
Lionsden
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf audusdweekly6-sep-2009.pdf   178 KB | 426 downloads
File Type: pdf Dailyforecast6-sep-2009.pdf   160 KB | 425 downloads
  • #1,574
  • Sep 6, 2009 7:50pm Sep 6, 2009 7:50pm
Quoting lionsden
Hi All,

Here is the Aud/Usd weekly report. Calderone were you looking over my shoulder when i wrote ? I knew you made a comment to me about gold but our numbers were pretty close. LOL!

Enjoy all
Lionsden

Wish I was looking over your shoulder, I'd take your trades! lol

I just remembered what you taught me.
  • #1,575
  • Sep 6, 2009 8:33pm Sep 6, 2009 8:33pm
Hi all,

usdjpy is possibly approaching another long position. I am waiting for a bounce off the 92.75 level accompanied of course by a cross of the TSxKS and other signals.

Excellent work with the PDFs guys, I will be going over each of them in detail tonight!
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdjpy m15.gif Size: 25 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: usdjpy m30.gif Size: 27 KB
  • #1,576
  • Sep 6, 2009 8:58pm Sep 6, 2009 8:58pm
Quoting drwasho
Not sure about that... every currency versus the USD (i.e. EURUSD, GBPUSD etc) plummeted during the crisis. The USDJPY did the opposite and went up, but then again the EURUSD would do the same if it was expressed as USDEUR (you see what I'm getting at?).
Errr this seems to be a fundamental misunderstanding of why Yen gained strength over USD during the crisis.

Quote
If you look at the performance of the dollar index and the price of gold in US dollars, during the financial crisis, the dollar index jumped up while the price of gold decreased. Now with all the inflation that central banks are pumping into the economy, the dollar is retracing it's steps prior to the crisis which means gold will get strong as the dollar gets weaker.

That's my analysis anyway.


I suggest you read these:
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogsp...ion-hedge.html

but especially this

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogsp...fool-gold.html

To gain a better understanding of what it is you are talking about.
  • #1,577
  • Sep 6, 2009 9:30pm Sep 6, 2009 9:30pm
Hi warriors, I appreciates your efforts to help people here by sharing your knowledges, analysis, etc. . As we know, trading is a hard business. You guys, make it easier for us with a pro manners. Great jobs Kumo Warriors!!
Better a realistic small pip than a fantasy big pip
  • #1,578
  • Sep 6, 2009 9:40pm Sep 6, 2009 9:40pm
Quoting sinner-
Errr this seems to be a fundamental misunderstanding of why Yen gained strength over USD during the crisis.
Yeah I see what you're saying now, my bad.

As for your links:

- Mish posts up some candle charts to demonstrate that there is a 'strong correlation' between the USD and gold price, but this is misleading if you want to get a sense of the behavior of the gold price in relation to the USD. Therefore I point you to two charts:

1) http://www.galmarley.com/
2) http://www.fxstreet.com/rates-charts/usdollar-index/ (change the settings to show a monthly chart with 50 periods)

You can see that as the dollar index goes down, the price of gold goes up... gold went down only a little during the crash in '08 but then continued with it's strong move up after the central banks opened the money taps.

Granted Mish was talking about the start of this year, however our discussion is on generally trends and principles and you can't take an article written in February 09, quoting data from January 09 on a daily chart, and make a conclusion based on one month's worth of data in the face of nearly a decade's inverse correlation.

- your first link uses some statistics to conclude that gold isn't the best hedge against inflation, rather stocks and real estate were:

"So, in the US, M3 has gone up by something like 207% over the last 20 years while gold has gone up in USD terms by 58%. So has gold been a hedge against inflation over this time frame? Of course not - stocks have been a better hedge against inflation than gold, and property even more of a hedge than that."

Given that this article was written in February 2007, I would suggest that both stocks and real estate have proven to be utter failures at hedging against inflation for obvious reasons.

Having said that, Mish's other point is true that gold isn't the perfect hedge against inflation... although I would think that Mish's other point that gold performs best during credit dislocations is an excellent point. I would further suggest that it is well known that central banks are acting together to suppress the gold price as much as they can.

I think the performance of gold this entire decade in the face of a declining dollar is evidence for the real threat of inflation in the future. I know that Mish is a deflationist (getting a lot of his ideas from Steve Keen), and there's this whole argument about whether inflation or deflation will win out in the end... from my point of view, I think both are true.
  • #1,579
  • Sep 6, 2009 10:14pm Sep 6, 2009 10:14pm
Excellent discussion and an educational thread.
  • #1,580
  • Sep 6, 2009 10:18pm Sep 6, 2009 10:18pm
Hi
Weekly Setup for CHF JPY

Ok I don't trade this Pair but my favorite is being done and done again.
Well I see Why no one else is doing this pair because it's a mess.
This is my first forecast with Ichi so....Let me have it!
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf Weekly Setup for CHF JPY.pdf   149 KB | 430 downloads
fxScavenger Arrogance is just Ignorance misspelled. abso-PIPn-lutely
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