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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #156,441
  • Aug 9, 2009 5:27pm Aug 9, 2009 5:27pm
And there I think is the problem theres a lot of traffic there,also think about what has just occured a break to the upside,I would need a weekly close at least below 50% real body of break out candle to belive.

Also check the size out of the shooting star as is now,watch for close lower wick = bad candle.

Quoting Bones
No not at all ,If the cable weekly closes as is I agree we must fall..at least to next support level
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On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #156,442
  • Aug 9, 2009 5:28pm Aug 9, 2009 5:28pm
[quote=ams;2942002]Ok, I give up as I do not see any point in dragging this conversation further but I would appreciate just last one answer from you.

If the stituation is so bad and it's all doom and gloom for UK, why did the pound reached to 170 in the first place, why did "they (banks, govt)" allowed it ??

What is there which you know more than the billions dollar worth investment banks, hedge funds etc??

I totally agree with that, here we have a conflict between expectations and current situation, so every day has its influence on the currency market, what do we expect from that but the unexpected to happen, for example a sudden and unexpected improve in the UK economy, could be suggested with every better than expected figure, however this didn't happen YET .
Trade safe everybody :-)
  • #156,443
  • Aug 9, 2009 5:29pm Aug 9, 2009 5:29pm
If saw my divergence now at 1.6663
GELORE
  • #156,444
  • Aug 9, 2009 5:32pm Aug 9, 2009 5:32pm
Quoting ams
Ok, I give up as I do not see any point in dragging this conversation further but I would appreciate just last one answer from you.

If the stituation is so bad and it's all doom and gloom for UK, why did the pound reached to 170 in the first place, why did "they (banks, govt)" allowed it ??

What is there which you know more than the billions dollar worth investment banks, hedge funds etc??
When did I say it was all doom and gloom for the UK? There are massive risks and structural flaws that exist, for sure. But there have been tangible improvements since the market and economic nadir witnessed in March, which I have set out in previous posts. And sterling, given its close correlation with the perceived fortunes of the banking and property sector, has been driven much higher accordingly - along with other so-called "risk" currencies and assets.

Central banks and govt are not going to step in and fight every move in the currency markets. That is a far too dangerous a game for them to constantly play. They would quickly lose credibility and have their reputation in tatters if they fought the market and lost.

I do not claim to know more than the government or investment banks, far from it, in fact.

Will QE succeed in keeping sterling weak - which is not actually its main goal, but only a nice fringe benefit? Who knows. But one thing for certain is that the MPC members all, without fail, wish for a gradual depreciation of sterling, so to boost competitiveness for our manufacturers and service providers. Of course, a panic sell-off in sterling would be a different matter entirely.

The MPC are aware of the urgent need for the UK's economy to re-balance. As I said before, a weaker currency would help facilitate this adjustment.
  • #156,445
  • Aug 9, 2009 5:39pm Aug 9, 2009 5:39pm
Cool Chirs I hope everything works out asap so you can get back to business

Quoting albchr
Thanks Tony! I feel I'm on to something as well. But there won't be any trading for me this week. Big troubles and forced to move. Hopefully I'll be settled (wherever) by next week and I can pick it back up again. The good news is I'll have far less stress and debt so I can now focus on CORRECT MM.

Bitter sweet but honestly, I can't wait!!
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #156,446
  • Aug 9, 2009 5:57pm Aug 9, 2009 5:57pm
Also the UK 100it dose not spell doom and gloom for the UK and you can clearly see a similar movement as to the pound.
Although I would agree there is some disconnection at this present time ,
I suppose it must happen to stop things becoming to easy.
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On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #156,447
  • Aug 9, 2009 5:57pm Aug 9, 2009 5:57pm
Quoting ams
DT wake up..!!.
Come to your senses dude.
Dude don't let all the vouches and praises get to your head that quickly.
You can do correct analysis when you are trading your charts and I trust you for that.
I don't mind where PA goes, I am up for it. BUT no one, and I mean no one can predict that pound will collapse to that level or go above 170. Based on any technical analysis.
Don't let arguments or anything else make you predict something which not even the bankers knows that in advance for sure.


I have personally been trading full time for a few years now, my "head" and emotions are quite level...in fact trading is very boring...hence posting on a forum to pass the time with a bit of banter among traders. A forum is just that....a forum. I seem to ruffle a few feathers on here because I trade on the right side??? lol Some I lose, most I win. Simples. (Meerkat for those who know, I like that one.)

As for your other comment on another post about successful traders wouldnt post on a forum....I understand why now.

If you truely understood price action, (Richard Wyckoff for example) you would be able to predict price extremely accurately 7-9 times out of 10. Now, I am already short from mid 169, so I don't need to look for another entry until either my 4th and 5th take profits have been hit (1/2/3 already banked) or Im out at break even on the remaining lots if 169 area hit.

Browse through a couple of my old posts and decide for yourself. I dont really mind criticism, water off a duck's back so to speak.

Have a good trading week.


http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost.php?p=2919722&postcount=153686

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost.php?p=2920073&postcount=153776

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost.php?p=2931360&postcount=155187

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost.php?p=2931310&postcount=155178
  • #156,448
  • Aug 9, 2009 6:06pm Aug 9, 2009 6:06pm
Here it is:

Quoting ams

If any of us could always rightly predict and trade the markets we would not be on this forum.
Why not? Beats staring at screens all day.
  • #156,449
  • Aug 9, 2009 6:09pm Aug 9, 2009 6:09pm
Quoting alex1976
Spot on son!

I don't get where all theses longs are coming from?

Maybe there just full of bull!

Short is my call.
Will be an interesting week ahead, thats for sure!

Cheers alex, lets see how it plays out
  • #156,450
  • Aug 9, 2009 6:49pm Aug 9, 2009 6:49pm
[quote=ams;2942002]Ok, I give up as I do not see any point in dragging this conversation further but I would appreciate just last one answer from you.

If the stituation is so bad and it's all doom and gloom for UK, why did the pound reached to 170 in the first place, why did "they (banks, govt)" allowed it ??

What is there which you know more than the billions dollar worth investment banks, hedge funds etc??


they allowed it of course ..... do you like to buy something at discount or full price ?

If it moves down 5000 pip from here they got it for a bargain at 1.7000.

the volumes being so high last 12 weeks is likely the big boys unloaded / reversing positions.
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #156,451
  • Aug 9, 2009 7:01pm Aug 9, 2009 7:01pm
Quoting Bones
Also the UK 100it dose not spell doom and gloom for the UK and you can clearly see a similar movement as to the pound.
Although I would agree there is some disconnection at this present time ,
I suppose it must happen to stop things becoming to easy.

ftse has only had a 38 % retracement and QE is not done yet. GU could move to 1984 prices over time ....1.1

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  • #156,452
  • Aug 9, 2009 7:05pm Aug 9, 2009 7:05pm
Quoting malcolmb14
ftse has only had a 38 % retracement and QE is not done yet. GU could move to 1984 prices over time ....1.1

Attachment
My opinion that cable will make at list 1.6855 and then will see.What you are talking about is not in immediate future
  • #156,453
  • Aug 9, 2009 7:07pm Aug 9, 2009 7:07pm
Quoting malcolmb14
ftse has only had a 38 % retracement and QE is not done yet. GU could move to 1984 prices over time ....1.1

Attachment
its going up point final then down
  • #156,454
  • Aug 9, 2009 7:08pm Aug 9, 2009 7:08pm
Quoting sofia101
My opinion that cable will make at list 1.6855 and then will see.What you are talking about is not in immediate future

1.6600 ... long to 1.6800 / 1.6820 ... then down to 1.6200

of course each price level has to be verified intact by vsa principles
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  • #156,455
  • Aug 9, 2009 7:10pm Aug 9, 2009 7:10pm
Quoting malcolmb14
1.6600 ... long to 1.6800 / 1.6820 ... then down to 1.6200
Ok that's better the rest is just blah, blah, yada, yada
  • #156,456
  • Aug 9, 2009 7:11pm Aug 9, 2009 7:11pm
Quoting malcolmb14
1.6600 ... long to 1.6800 / 1.6820 ... then down to 1.6200
1.7010 then we will see from there if we have a further up move to 174 or another retracement
  • #156,457
  • Aug 9, 2009 7:14pm Aug 9, 2009 7:14pm
Quoting GreekEagle
1.7010 then we will see from there if we have a further up move to 174 or another retracement
you are GS .. you know that nfp -250 k and not -350 k ...would you not be buying your stock ?

looks like GS top is close...if that is case then GS selling market already as suckers are buying.

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  • #156,458
  • Aug 9, 2009 7:19pm Aug 9, 2009 7:19pm
Quoting malcolmb14
you are GS .. you know that nfp -250 k and not -350 k ...would you not be buying your stock ?

looks like GS top is close...if that is case then GS selling market already as suckers are buying.

Attachment

do not worry this is mark down 15 min gs is buy 163
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  • #156,459
  • Aug 9, 2009 7:27pm Aug 9, 2009 7:27pm
I think it is going to 161.00 by today..
  • #156,460
  • Aug 9, 2009 7:34pm Aug 9, 2009 7:34pm
As mentioned last week...am still holding my Long and looking to close it ~ 1.6730-50 to 1.6800/10..

Then only short area will come...even some of you can see weekly give us very nice sign ...am still holding long and will close it n add more short as per above mentioned area...Good luck
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