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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #156,421
  • Aug 9, 2009 2:20pm Aug 9, 2009 2:20pm
Quoting Bones
Hi Chris missing your progress here ,really am,I think may be your under safe guidence of EO's,wing ?Hows things ?
Thanks Tony! I feel I'm on to something as well. But there won't be any trading for me this week. Big troubles and forced to move. Hopefully I'll be settled (wherever) by next week and I can pick it back up again. The good news is I'll have far less stress and debt so I can now focus on CORRECT MM.

Bitter sweet but honestly, I can't wait!!
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #156,422
  • Aug 9, 2009 2:23pm Aug 9, 2009 2:23pm
Quoting GlobalMacro
Thanks, Chris. You are of high caliber yourself, my friend!
Thanks GM! Means a lot coming from you...
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #156,423
  • Aug 9, 2009 2:35pm Aug 9, 2009 2:35pm
Quoting malcolmb14
also there hasd been talk of a sucker rally ... what was 875 to 1005 in under 4 weeks if not a sucker rally ? everyone and their granny is bullish the market right now.

If the pros are buying .. why has volume been declining on ES for last 12 days

all this talk of recovery opens the door for interest rate hikes. I would not be surprised to see one on Wednesday

Attachment
Mal, have a look at the FRE stock chart (p/v) for the last week. Like the way they played that one?
  • #156,424
  • Aug 9, 2009 2:40pm Aug 9, 2009 2:40pm
Quoting direct-trade
I totally agree with you . I was going to go for an indepth analysis about this rally (looking at number of S&P contracts on Friday and smelling a rat), but I am sure my following charts say it all.
  • #156,425
  • Aug 9, 2009 2:54pm Aug 9, 2009 2:54pm
Quoting direct-trade
Mal, have a look at the FRE stock chart (p/v) for the last week. Like the way they played that one?

Chart here: (I'll keep it on GBP/USD after this post, promise)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: FRE.gif Size: 10 KB
  • #156,426
  • Aug 9, 2009 3:41pm Aug 9, 2009 3:41pm
Quoting direct-trade
Chart here: (I'll keep it on GBP/USD after this post, promise)

ok wtf fre rose 73% after hours Friday

10 billion loss 1st quarter .... 768 million profit this quarter , same time Fannae say 15 billion loss and going back to feds for 11 billion hand out

I guess one is cooking books and the other is not.. sure is not the housing market going up.
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #156,427
  • Aug 9, 2009 3:49pm Aug 9, 2009 3:49pm
Quoting albchr
Thanks Tony! I feel I'm on to something as well. But there won't be any trading for me this week. Big troubles and forced to move. Hopefully I'll be settled (wherever) by next week and I can pick it back up again. The good news is I'll have far less stress and debt so I can now focus on CORRECT MM.

Bitter sweet but honestly, I can't wait!!

Chris, my friend, Take it easy and take care of yourself and your family .You've seen worse and have overcome; you shall overcome once more and be even stronger than before.

We all expect you back right here very very soon!

GM
Hear the music before the song is over ...
  • #156,428
  • Aug 9, 2009 4:07pm Aug 9, 2009 4:07pm
I would not be surprised it there is another sucker's rally on G/U till the middle of the next week, just to trap the unaware. 50% FIB Ret is still a reasonable zone to be reached. I shall trade with the momentum on H1 and M15 with reasonably conservative SL. If the price goes in the region 1.7050 I shall start shorting, and add every 50 pips to the short position with a large SL. Untill the confirmation of the declared direction I shall be very careful both ways, and shall build the short position from the 50% zone, or from Thur, whichever scenario comes first.
Caution is the key word atm.
By the way, the monthly doji shall still be well in tact, as any spike up, is very likely to be followed by a rapid retracement, if the spike up shall happen at all. In either case I am ready for the both scenarios, one is to short now, the other is to trade both ways until Wed/Thur and then short hard.
Keep yourselves away from the way of harm, and have many positive trades.
Make sure losses are small and profits are bigger!
  • #156,429
  • Edited 4:44pm Aug 9, 2009 4:32pm | Edited 4:44pm
  •  ams
  • | Joined Apr 2009 | Status: Perspective,Position,Plan ,Pattern | 2,859 Posts
DT wake up..!!.

Come to your senses dude.

After spending billions you think govt will let pound collapse to 13xx-14xxx ?? and why would it go to that level when ftse was 3500??

Dude don't let all the vouches and praises get to your head that quickly.

You can do correct analysis when you are trading your charts and I trust you for that.

I don't mind where PA goes, I am up for it. BUT no one, and I mean no one can predict that pound will collapse to that level or go above 170. Based on any technical analysis.

Technicals are part of fundamentals despite people agreeing or making fun of things, pound has come long way from 13xxxxx in march to 17xxx without any DAMN technicals, it's purely based on fundamentals with govt pumping enormous amount of money more then total GDP of some countries, and even higher then foriegn reserves of some emerging markets. So has the stock market!!

All indicators are useless. what guarantee is there that rsi, macd divergence, overbought etc are not going to correct after 200-300 pip fall?? none.

Don't let arguments or anything else make you predict something which not even the bankers knows that in advance for sure.









Quoting direct-trade
I think you are in for a surprise.
  • #156,430
  • Edited 4:48pm Aug 9, 2009 4:37pm | Edited 4:48pm
Quoting ams
DT wake up..!!.

Come to your senses dude.

After spendng billions you think govt will let pound collapse to 13xx-14xxx ??

Dude don't let all the vouches and praises get to your head that quickly.

You can do correct analysis when you are trading your charts and I trust you for that.

Don't let arguments or anything else make you predict something which not even the bankers knows that in advance for sure.
They (the UK govt and the BOE) would dearly love for sterling to gradually depreciate to 1.30 to 1.40. The MPC has made it blatantly clear in recent months that it desires a weak currency, due to the stimulative effect this would have both on economic growth and the ultimate goal of rebalancing the economy. Listen to the comments made by MPC members in recent weeks, which overtly support this view.

This sort of weakening in the currency would also import a welcome degree of inflation to the economy, which would assist in easing the debt burden. I am not predicting sterling to fall this sharply, but we need to be aware that having a strong currency is not a current goal of the MPC, hence them shocking the market last week through the dramatic increase of QE.
  • #156,431
  • Aug 9, 2009 4:50pm Aug 9, 2009 4:50pm
Quoting Bull_Bear
Alright fellas enjoys your weekend....

No buying...... just selling for me..... till 1.6550

Trade well
Cya
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...stcount=156376

Morning guys,

Like I said on Friday no buying just selling..... Plus this week's Beer plan too

See you guys a the London session
Veni, Vidi, Vici (We came, we saw, we conquered)
  • #156,432
  • Aug 9, 2009 4:50pm Aug 9, 2009 4:50pm
No not at all ,If the cable weekly closes as is I agree we must fall..at least to next support level

Quoting malcolmb14
Bones let me get this right...you are bullish to 1.7500 and higher...

check this out..

highest volume on weekly on a doji in 9 years I guess those mad pros are buying like crazy here. See you at 1.5000 and lower

Attachment
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #156,433
  • Aug 9, 2009 4:50pm Aug 9, 2009 4:50pm
  •  ams
  • | Joined Apr 2009 | Status: Perspective,Position,Plan ,Pattern | 2,859 Posts
We are all entitled to our opinions and I respect that, and I also love a healthy debate.

Do you really believe what politicians say :-) I for one, don't.

UK doesn't do exports, they mostly import and being financial capital of the world stronger pound gives them leverage to buy equities, credit default, swaps elsewhere. Also, very imp, it gives them the pleasure of investors putting money for good ROI with increase in value of money.

Stonger pound is very desired despite these guys making false claims. They waited for pound to reach to a level to annouce QE decision. They would have done that in july. Now they will annouce IR decision to overcome inflation then you will see the rally in pound.

I am waiting for PA to reach and break 65500-600 level to agree on downtrend before that it's all gossip :-)

If any of us could always rightly predict and trade the markets we would not be on this forum.






Quoting gammase1
They (the UK govt and BOE) would dearly love for the pound to gradually depreciate to 1.30 to 1.40. The MPC has made it blatantly clear in recent months that it desires a weak currency, due to the stimulative effect this would have both on economic growth and the ultimate goal of rebalancing the economy. Listen to the comments made by MPC members in recent weeks, which overtly support this view.

This sort of weakening in the currency would also import a welcome degree of inflation to the economy, which would assist in easing the debt burden....
  • #156,434
  • Aug 9, 2009 5:03pm Aug 9, 2009 5:03pm
I totally agree with this. Nice way to look at things.

Quoting ams
DT wake up..!!.

Come to your senses dude.

After spending billions you think govt will let pound collapse to 13xx-14xxx ?? and why would it go to that level when ftse was 3500??

Dude don't let all the vouches and praises get to your head that quickly.

You can do correct analysis when you are trading your charts and I trust you for that.

I don't mind where PA goes, I am up for it....
Its all in the mind.
  • #156,435
  • Aug 9, 2009 5:04pm Aug 9, 2009 5:04pm
[quote=ams;2941972]We are all entitled to our opinions and I respect that, and I also love a healthy debate.

Quote
Do you really believe what politicians say :-) I for one, don't.

Of course not. But the uk politicians actually only talk of wanting a stronger currency, which is required to retain confidence in gilts. it is only the unelected MPC members that expressed concern over sterling's strength.

Quote
UK doesn't do exports, they mostly import and being financial capital of the world stronger pound gives them leverage to buy equities, credit default, swaps elsewhere. Also, very imp, it gives them the pleasure of investors putting money for good ROI with increase in value of money.

Not quite true. In total, financial services only contribute about 10% to UK GDP, so this point doesn't make sense to me. Who are "them" that you mention? I assume you mean the global banks based in London? If so, the majority of their earning, plus assets and liabilities are based in dollars.

Quote
Stonger pound is very desired despite these guys making false claims. They waited for pound to reach to a level to annouce QE decision. They would have done that in july. Now they will annouce IR decision to overcome inflation then you will see the rally in pound.

Couldn't disagree more. QE is equivalent to a massive interest rate cut (look at reaction of gilt yields on Thursday), meaning it is a policy that is more than likely than not to weaken a currency, all else remaining equal. If UK officials wanted a stronger currency so badly, then why do they go about achieving this goal in such a back-to-front way?
  • #156,436
  • Aug 9, 2009 5:10pm Aug 9, 2009 5:10pm
hi every one.............................
  • #156,437
  • Aug 9, 2009 5:11pm Aug 9, 2009 5:11pm
  •  ams
  • | Joined Apr 2009 | Status: Perspective,Position,Plan ,Pattern | 2,859 Posts
Ok, I give up as I do not see any point in dragging this conversation further but I would appreciate just last one answer from you.

If the stituation is so bad and it's all doom and gloom for UK, why did the pound reached to 170 in the first place, why did "they (banks, govt)" allowed it ??

What is there which you know more than the billions dollar worth investment banks, hedge funds etc??











[quote=gammase1;2941991]
Quoting ams
We are all entitled to our opinions and I respect that, and I also love a healthy debate.



of course not. but the uk politicians talk of wanting a stronger currency, which is required to retain confidence in gilts. it is only the unelected MPC members that expressed concern over sterling's strength.



Not quite true. Financial services only contribute about 10% to UK GDP, so this point doesn't make sense to me. Who are "them" that you mention? I assume you mean the global banks based in London? If so, the majority of...
  • #156,438
  • Aug 9, 2009 5:13pm Aug 9, 2009 5:13pm
I think DT is on to something here in cable.

If I had to choose one over the other, which will we see first 160 or 180 ?
I'd be banking on a return to 160, or atleast close to it,
followed by some consolidation in the 60's. Would re-evaluate then.

Quoting ams
I don't mind where PA goes, I am up for it. BUT no one, and I mean no one
can predict that pound will collapse to that level or go above 170.
Based on any technical analysis......
Last week, every mouthpiece analyst working for a retailer was shouting buy Euro and buy Cable.
"....Cable 175 is a foregone conclusion...." and "...nothing will stop euro breaking 145..."
These include popular names using both technical and fundamental
excuses for continued longs, even into the NFP report.
Some of them work for firms who are likely FF sponsors, so won't choke
the golden goose in this forum, there are other places for that.

But it goes to show that those with the loudest horns
are often playing out of tune, with the market that is.

Only time will tell if their timing is just off, or if they've totally blown it out the ass
and missed the top of this wave/cycle. Even worse: bought the top of the move.
  • #156,439
  • Aug 9, 2009 5:15pm Aug 9, 2009 5:15pm
Quoting malcolmb14
also there hasd been talk of a sucker rally ... what was 875 to 1005 in under 4 weeks if not a sucker rally ? everyone and their granny is bullish the market right now.

If the pros are buying .. why has volume been declining on ES for last 12 days

all this talk of recovery opens the door for interest rate hikes. I would not be surprised to see one on Wednesday

Attachment

Are you aware of the difference between esignal data feed and realtime data feed, is it the same? volume wise
Thank you
Sunny
  • #156,440
  • Aug 9, 2009 5:21pm Aug 9, 2009 5:21pm
  •  ams
  • | Joined Apr 2009 | Status: Perspective,Position,Plan ,Pattern | 2,859 Posts
Yup, the boy is onto something for sure.
You made a relevant call of sponsers on FF. I never realised that, lol stupid me.


But being in this market for sometime I have also seen we often getting beaten in our own game.

As you said, analyst making calls etc. None can predict this market for sure. It's manipulated that's why, lol. It would have been easier otherwise.


I track OIL and I see it making highest high of $80 a barrel given the condition of economies. atm it's high and it has to come down and market always has ways to correct things in one go. for the moment it has to be dollar bulls.




Quoting toshi
I think DT is on to something here in cable.

If I had to choose one over the other, which will we see first 160 or 180 ?
I'd be banking on a return to 160, or atleast close to it,
followed by some consolidation in the 60's. Would re-evaluate then.



Last week, every mouthpiece analyst working for a retailer was shouting buy Euro and buy Cable.
"....Cable 175 is a foregone conclusion...." and "...nothing will stop euro breaking 145..."
These include popular names using both technical and fundamental
excuses for continued longs, even into...
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