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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #154,641
  • Aug 3, 2009 4:18pm Aug 3, 2009 4:18pm
Quoting malcolmb14
lol ..... haven demand sinks .... really who r they kidding. BOA just got fined 33 million by SEC ...... and they moaned at 4 million tarp fee. The senate themselves are concerned that yes 135 billion of tarp money in cofers .. but 100 billion may never be repaid by the auto industry and have approvaed another 2 billion of tax payers money to be wasted on that trade in scheme , yet the other day when GS gave back 1.4 billion on their 10 bill loan the market shot up 300 points. HOld on something wrong with that picture.

why do i have odd feeling...
You are full of good knowledge. You shouldn't however negate and brush off anything that doesn't coincide with your immediate impressions and beliefs of the markets. You seem quick to speak out against something that clearly has a lot of wisdom at the heart of it. It's important to be an open book and consider different angles.

If people perceive, then that is what matters.
Probability Professor
  • #154,642
  • Aug 3, 2009 4:19pm Aug 3, 2009 4:19pm
well they love to milk the sheeple, so 8/10 times they take prices exctly in the opposite direction of the intended effect that the news would have.

So be carefull with that.

Quoting BobHall
well, here's a tip

http://www.forexfactory.com/calendar.php
4:00am...
Its all in the mind.
  • #154,643
  • Aug 3, 2009 4:23pm Aug 3, 2009 4:23pm
Quoting 5abi
well they love to milk the sheeple, so 8/10 times they take prices exctly in the opposite direction of the intended effect that the news would have.

So be carefull with that.
With experience will come an understanding of how price reacts to different news results, and the confirmed result of the news result in comparison to the forecasted figure. Most times the news result has been factored into the price days before hand, based on the forecasted result. etc etc.
Probability Professor
  • #154,644
  • Aug 3, 2009 4:25pm Aug 3, 2009 4:25pm
http://www.news-press.com/article/20...034/1014/RSS02

1877 foreclosures in Florida July .... x 50 states .. lets be fair and say 1500 x 50 , 75,000 foreclosures us wide per month .

average mortgage lets be fair 100,000 . 7.5 billion loss to banks per month
oh ONLY 90 billion loss per year ... these numbers have not changed .. so HOW r banks profitable this quarter ? are they really raping their clients to a tune of 23 billion per quarter. NO . The rules for reporting losses were changed 2 quarters back . They now no longer have to report losses on assets on the books if they are willing to hold those assets till they become 'whole again' . CRIMINAL IF YOU ASK ME. ...

Ongoing unemployment claims down last week ..... month / month employment claims up for third month in row ( markets rose due to ongoing cliams being less than expected )... ok lets look at this one....16 weeks ago unemployment claims were highest in 5 years. Most states you can only claim for 16 weeks before you are on your own. Therefore of course last month unemployment ongoing claims are down due to fact that the record unemployment claims of feb ./ March are now on their own if they have not yet found jobs.

someone mentioned fundamentals ..... the fundies in the US make NO sense any more , and do not support the elevated market conditions
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #154,645
  • Aug 3, 2009 4:27pm Aug 3, 2009 4:27pm
Quoting Galation
You are full of good knowledge. You shouldn't however negate and brush off anything that doesn't coincide with your immediate impressions and beliefs of the markets. You seem quick to speak out against something that clearly has a lot of wisdom at the heart of it. It's important to be an open book and consider different angles.

If people perceive, then that is what matters.
I agree on the perceived aspect of the market ... sheeple love following the leader. I am just stating the obvious that will eventually come back to haunt everyone in the US and sadly , because US are our #1 trade partner , Canada
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #154,646
  • Aug 3, 2009 4:28pm Aug 3, 2009 4:28pm
Excuse you, me a sheelpe, I've been trading for over 10 years. I think I know what I'm doing, thanks all the same.

And if it wasn't for that news release, I wouldn't of cleaned up on the EUR/USD, GBP/USD, GBP/JPY, for a little over 700 pips today.

Quoting 5abi
well they love to milk the sheeple, so 8/10 times they take prices exctly in the opposite direction of the intended effect that the news would have.

So be carefull with that.
PM Me If You Need Help!
  • #154,647
  • Aug 3, 2009 4:28pm Aug 3, 2009 4:28pm
YES.YES and YES.

But the heck dont you heard markets can stay irrational longer than you can say "cheese" yada yada.

Fundies have been the same last 3 months but price has move a 1000+ pips. See this and benefit from this.


Quoting malcolmb14
http://www.news-press.com/article/20...034/1014/RSS02

1877 foreclosures in Florida July .... x 50 states .. lets be fair and say 1500 x 50...
Its all in the mind.
  • #154,648
  • Aug 3, 2009 4:28pm Aug 3, 2009 4:28pm
Quoting malcolmb14
http://www.news-press.com/article/20...034/1014/RSS02

1877 foreclosures in Florida July .... x 50 states .. lets be fair and say 1500 x 50...
If the US economy is doing bad and the rest of the world is doing good, then investors will pull their money out of the USD and put it into other higher yielding investments around the world.

If the US economy is doing good and the rest of the world is doing good, then the investors will pull their money out of the US dollar and put it into higher yielding investments.
Probability Professor
  • #154,649
  • Aug 3, 2009 4:31pm Aug 3, 2009 4:31pm
I have entered GBP-JPY short with a very (LARGE) stop loss with an equal T/P. This trade may end in 48 hours from now, or 14 days.
Its all in the mind.
  • #154,650
  • Aug 3, 2009 4:33pm Aug 3, 2009 4:33pm
Quoting malcolmb14
I agree on the perceived aspect of the market ... sheeple love following the leader. I am just stating the obvious that will eventually come back to haunt everyone in the US and sadly , because US are our #1 trade partner , Canada
I remember back when the the Soviet Union ceased in the early 90's. Many countries had strong trading relationships with the Soviets. After the Soviet Union collapsed, the trading relations between other countries and Russia suddenly stopped.

This had a huge effect on several countries, who at the time had their own recessions. Finland was once such country, where their GDP dropped 25% instantly. Because of those hard times in the early 90's, those countries effected, such as Finland, haven't been effected as much in this recession compared to many other countries, as they tightened their belts long ago.

A bit off topic, but your comment on trading partners just ignited the thought.
Probability Professor
  • #154,651
  • Aug 3, 2009 4:38pm Aug 3, 2009 4:38pm
Quoting Galation
If the US economy is doing bad and the rest of the world is doing good, then investors will pull their money out of the USD and put it into other higher yielding investments around the world.

If the US economy is doing good and the rest of the world is doing good, then the investors will pull their money out of the US dollar and put it into higher yielding investments.

I use vsa .. the same system that told me sell oil at 148 when news was saying 200 .

right now volume on dx look odd , gbp futures and dj ... all look like this move is very impulsive .

when this happens something is being cooked for the down leg. .....

usd will likely touch 75 , double bottom then reverse.
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #154,652
  • Aug 3, 2009 4:43pm Aug 3, 2009 4:43pm
Quoting malcolmb14
I use vsa .. the same system that told me sell oil at 148 when news was saying 200 .

right now volume on dx look odd , gbp futures and dj ... all look like this move is very impulsive .

when this happens something is being cooked for the down leg. .....

usd will likely touch 75 , double bottom then reverse.
I wouldn't disagree with you about this. I think the high unemployment levels will catch up with people in the Autumn, which is likely to cause house prices to drop again, and apply more pressure on the economy.

It's a very difficult time to predict far in the future when economies change so fast.

The HSBC forecasted the GBP/USD to be about 1.60/1.65 at year end. Things change by the day. We shall see, we shall see: time will tell.
Probability Professor
  • #154,653
  • Aug 3, 2009 4:49pm Aug 3, 2009 4:49pm
weekly futures...

jun / july last year 700 pip up move before tank .... 5 weeks

july / aug this year 700 pip up , mid august makes 5 weeks.

reality we have only just touched 50 % retrace of the massive down move.

could this be a bull trap just above 1.7000 ... maybe even 17100 and then wham down we go

bear div rsx daily , weekly

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: chart146.png Size: 198 KB
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #154,654
  • Aug 3, 2009 4:51pm Aug 3, 2009 4:51pm
Quoting malcolmb14
weekly futures...

jun / july last year 700 pip up move before tank .... 5 weeks

july / aug this year 700 pip up , mid august makes 5 weeks.

reality we have only just touched 50 % retrace of the massive down move.

could this be a bull trap just above 1.7000 ... maybe even 17100 and then wham down we go

bear div rsx daily , weekly

Attachment
One must take into consideration that this recession had it's first impact at the start of August last year, therfore it's difficult to directly compare the two scenarios.
Probability Professor
  • #154,655
  • Aug 3, 2009 4:51pm Aug 3, 2009 4:51pm
Quoting malcolmb14
weekly futures...

jun / july last year 700 pip up move before tank .... 5 weeks

july / aug this year 700 pip up , mid august makes 5 weeks.

reality we have only just touched 50 % retrace of the massive down move.

could this be a bull trap just above 1.7000 ... maybe even 17100 and then wham down we go

bear div rsx daily , weekly

Attachment
However, a very valid point to take into consideration.
Probability Professor
  • #154,656
  • Aug 3, 2009 5:07pm Aug 3, 2009 5:07pm
Quoting Galation
One must take into consideration that this recession had it's first impact at the start of August last year, therfore it's difficult to directly compare the two scenarios.

not saying tank however June this year we saw HIGHEST VOLUME in 4 years on a doji on the monthly GU. we are only 240 pip above that high so far ....

could it have been buyers ? I do not think so as smart money wants to buy low sell high ...

I mentioned this before and mentioned ti could take 3 - 6 months to work out ... I thought maybe august / sept ..

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Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #154,657
  • Aug 3, 2009 5:13pm Aug 3, 2009 5:13pm
Quoting malcolmb14
not saying tank however June this year we saw HIGHEST VOLUME in 4 years on a doji on the monthly GU. we are only 240 pip above that high so far ....

could it have been buyers ? I do not think so as smart money wants to buy low sell high ...

I mentioned this before and mentioned ti could take 3 - 6 months to work out ... I thought maybe august / sept ..

Attachment
I heard a rumour market will tank on Wed, I hope to see it one day sooner (i.e. today )
  • #154,658
  • Aug 3, 2009 5:17pm Aug 3, 2009 5:17pm
what market you talking about?
  • #154,659
  • Aug 3, 2009 5:46pm Aug 3, 2009 5:46pm
Good morning. Today we go

catch you guys london session. trade safe !
Thank You
  • #154,660
  • Aug 3, 2009 6:40pm Aug 3, 2009 6:40pm
Quoting alex1976
I just went long!

I know its too early to tell, but today I follow my new system.

I don't think its a bad position to take in the uptrend.

That's why I like going with trend.
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