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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #154,621
  • Aug 3, 2009 3:11pm Aug 3, 2009 3:11pm
GU what we got

I mentioned a while back (6 weeks back ) GU may test 1.7000. The fact it happened all of a sudden 700 pip in 3 days based on ? and ES hit 1000 at same time based on ????? seems really odd to me , so lets look at some volume charts for the different things

chart 1 ) dollar index , low volume down day followed by high volume down day today on a narrower spread candle than Friday , could be buyers entering the market.

chart 2) gbp futures
Friday and today both 300 pips . Note today how volume was 1/3 more than Friday .. really think pros are buying here ? ask your self do you like paying 1.5 times what the sticker price on a car is ? The high vol suggests sellers on the strength today into 1.7000. I suggest today was loaded with sellers.

chart 3) declining vol on 1000 point move .. move based on ? fumes...... today's up candle had hardly any volume behind it. Not really low but buyers losing interest

It is not if the market is going to correct .. it is when . Maybe late august ... maybe September...dj may not even see 10,000 let alone 20,000 some prat is talking ABOUT on CNBC

I think this whole move in the markets is some form of mark up recently based on fumes , been enjoying it but am very wary of it.

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  • #154,622
  • Aug 3, 2009 3:13pm Aug 3, 2009 3:13pm
Quoting rashidcm2004
i am short from 6960 . target 1.6815
Just curious, but why?
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #154,623
  • Aug 3, 2009 3:18pm Aug 3, 2009 3:18pm
Quoting scorpionFX
i see resistance at 1.7048 (very old s/r point from november 2005 you can see on weekly chart )..so will hold it till then..it will break it then we have another long, if not strong short.

happy trading!
A good indication is to look at the last time it passed through this number. At the end of the day, the 1.70 area is a big enough psycological area in itself. If the GBP is long term bullish, which I believe it is, then it will break through this 1.70 and any other historical price reversal levels around this area.
Probability Professor
  • #154,624
  • Aug 3, 2009 3:18pm Aug 3, 2009 3:18pm
Looks like "maybe" a deliberation candle stick forming?
http://www.leavittbrothers.com/educa...on_bearish.cfm

or the three white soldiers?
http://www.leavittbrothers.com/educa...rs_bullish.cfm

just need to wait for tomorrows candle stick to see

Quoting malcolmb14
GU what we got

Attachment
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  • #154,625
  • Aug 3, 2009 3:20pm Aug 3, 2009 3:20pm
Quoting malcolmb14
GU what we got

I mentioned a while back (6 weeks back ) GU may...
I presume you look at the FTSE100 as well as the Dow Jones.
Probability Professor
  • #154,626
  • Aug 3, 2009 3:20pm Aug 3, 2009 3:20pm
Quoting albchr
Just curious, but why?

Maybe he likes to live on the edge!
  • #154,627
  • Aug 3, 2009 3:27pm Aug 3, 2009 3:27pm
what a shame dollar what a shame
Its all in the mind.
  • #154,628
  • Aug 3, 2009 3:37pm Aug 3, 2009 3:37pm
I'm not concerned with what the market may do, I'm concerned with what the market will probably do.......
  • #154,629
  • Aug 3, 2009 3:41pm Aug 3, 2009 3:41pm
Quoting malcolmb14
GU what we got........

I think this whole move in the markets is some form of mark up recently based on fumes , been enjoying it but am very wary of it.

You know Malcolmb, you're a very smart well informed person. I don't understand much of this and I can't help but agree. From a purely gut instinct I feel something is up here. Maybe it's just my intuition which is pretty good. Perhaps it's simply the general knowledge that the worlds governments are scrambling and feeding us fairy tails to keep confidance up. Perhaps a combo of the two but something, to me, stinks here and just doesn't "feel" right.

I have this overwhelming feeling of "the other shoe dropping"...
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #154,630
  • Aug 3, 2009 3:53pm Aug 3, 2009 3:53pm
But what if the other shoe ends up someone's ass?

Quoting albchr

I have this overwhelming feeling of "the other shoe dropping"...
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  • #154,631
  • Aug 3, 2009 3:58pm Aug 3, 2009 3:58pm
Quoting BobHall
But what if the other shoe ends up someone's ass?


  • #154,632
  • Aug 3, 2009 3:58pm Aug 3, 2009 3:58pm
I think a lot of you need to understand what is going on from all angles in the fundermental world, instead of solely relying upon technical signals.

Get an understanding of what is going on, and then you will be confident in price direction as you will know why it is heading in any particular direction.

It just annoys me when people ask where price is going when they haven't even studied the fundermental things which affect the particular currency in question.

For those who have no direction: read the following and read all the news releases for the pair: Dollar sinks as haven demand wanes
Probability Professor
  • #154,633
  • Aug 3, 2009 4:00pm Aug 3, 2009 4:00pm
From now on, the only indicator I'm gonna use will be price, and the only thing I will listen to is price.....
  • #154,634
  • Aug 3, 2009 4:01pm Aug 3, 2009 4:01pm
A witty saying proves nothing, but it can make you really-really famous.



Quoting Galation
I think a lot of you need to understand what is going on from all angles in the fundermental world, instead of solely relying upon technical signals.

Get an understanding of what is going on, and then you will be confident in price direction as you will know why it is heading in any particular direction....
Its all in the mind.
  • #154,635
  • Aug 3, 2009 4:08pm Aug 3, 2009 4:08pm
Quoting malcolmb14
GU what we got

I mentioned a while back (6 weeks back ) GU may test 1.7000. The fact it happened all of a sudden 700 pip in 3 days based on ? and ES hit 1000 at same time based on ????? seems really odd to me , so lets look at some volume charts for the different things

chart 1 ) dollar index , low volume down day followed by high volume down day today on a narrower spread candle than Friday , could be buyers entering the market.

chart 2) gbp futures
Friday and today both 300 pips . Note today how volume was 1/3 more than Friday .. really...
Mal, could it another scenario where low volume on Dow is where mostly buyers but no sellers which contributes to less resistance on the up move?
  • #154,636
  • Aug 3, 2009 4:09pm Aug 3, 2009 4:09pm
Quoting Galation
I think a lot of you need to understand what is going on from all angles in the fundermental world, instead of solely relying upon technical signals.

Get an understanding of what is going on, and then you will be confident in price direction as you will know why it is heading in any particular direction....
lol ..... haven demand sinks .... really who r they kidding. BOA just got fined 33 million by SEC ...... and they moaned at 4 million tarp fee. The senate themselves are concerned that yes 135 billion of tarp money in cofers .. but 100 billion may never be repaid by the auto industry and have approvaed another 2 billion of tax payers money to be wasted on that trade in scheme , yet the other day when GS gave back 1.4 billion on their 10 bill loan the market shot up 300 points. HOld on something wrong with that picture.

why do i have odd feeling rapid interest rate hikes coming to support usd ? and they will be saying economic recovery great and no more stimulus required.

No more stimulus required as tarp is one of the biggest waste of tax payers money EVER , liekly only 200 billion of the 700 billion will ever be repaid.

If you really want to understand fundamentals .. think... do not just read news items. This move makes NO sense from a fundamental stand point in the markets or the USD.

cit ( commercial loans ) august 15th ...... they do not get another 3 bill from somewhere are filing for chapter 11. ( they just got 3 bill loan from bond holders)

I say bring back mark to market and lets see how the financial sector is really doing.
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  • #154,637
  • Aug 3, 2009 4:12pm Aug 3, 2009 4:12pm
Quoting mktjong
Mal, could it another scenario where low volume on Dow is where mostly buyers but no sellers which contributes to less resistance on the up move?
err market do not work like that ... the low volume indicates markets are being manipulated up . There is a reason for this , so that dj and stock can be sold at max profit and short can be entered at max discount ..... and that reason is going to show itself sooner or later.
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  • #154,638
  • Aug 3, 2009 4:13pm Aug 3, 2009 4:13pm
well, here's a tip

http://www.forexfactory.com/calendar.php
4:00am EUR
Final Manufacturing PMI
4:30am GBP
Manufacturing PMI


take a look at what it says:

Data is given to Thomson Reuters subscribers 2 minutes before the public release time listed on the calendar - early market reaction is usually a result of trades made by these subscribers


This was like giving someone a silver platter.

Monitor the results on 1min or 5 min chart, and go with the flow.

Quoting Galation
I think a lot of you need to understand what is going on from all angles in the fundermental world, instead of solely relying upon technical signals.
PM Me If You Need Help!
  • #154,639
  • Aug 3, 2009 4:16pm Aug 3, 2009 4:16pm
Don't forget the TRILLIONS of dollars that went missing on Gov' spending that was held in building 5 during 911. That was the biggest waste - not to mention all the lives during and after.

Quoting malcolmb14

No more stimulus required as tarp is one of the biggest waste of tax payers money EVER , liekly only 200 billion of the 700 billion will ever be repaid.
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  • #154,640
  • Aug 3, 2009 4:17pm Aug 3, 2009 4:17pm
agreed, this is not risk appetite but generalized trashing of the dollar. This will fall 400 pips in next 2 days. And when it does I will be a part of that.




Quoting malcolmb14
lol ..... haven demand sinks .... really who r they kidding. BOA just got fined 33 million by SEC ...... and they moaned at 4 million tarp fee. The senate themselves are concerned that yes 135 billion of tarp money in cofers .. but 100 billion may never be repaid by the auto industry and have approvaed another 2 billion of tax payers money to be wasted on that trade in scheme , yet the other day when GS gave back 1.4 billion on their 10 bill loan the market shot up 300 points. HOld on something wrong with that picture.

why do i have odd feeling...
Its all in the mind.
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