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AUD/USD

Whoa, the yen is back with a vengeance... I may be shifting to shorting yen crosses soon.
Quoting Subdude
Whoa, the yen is back with a vengeance... I may be shifting to shorting yen crosses soon.
I believe that the 94.5 - 95 area is still a good long entry point for this pair
AUDUSD still in the old mentioned trading range.

AUD weaker than an even weaker dollar, after quite good employment data and a 50bp cut rate from New Zealand.

Though market could be worried for China's slowdown, interest to buy AUD (and EUR) on dips is still noticed, meaning to say that unless equities start going down again, 0.64 - 0.645 area should contain the profit taking.

Upside I would monitor most recent highs at 0,652, followed by the upper part of the trading range at 0,6560.

Under 0,63 - 0,6285 the recent positive downmove would be denied and it would be time to reverse a long and go short.

Safe trade to all!
Quoting Subdude
A huge bounce today, huh? As tempted as you might be, I think you should take a break from making predictions as you seem to be off the mark quite a bit.
mate, this was the bounce I was expecting

I am trying to close my longs today
Quoting fammira
mate, this was the bounce I was expecting

I am trying to close my longs today
When you keep making the same prediction over and over again, your chances of getting it right increase. You were calling for the bounce last Friday, so it certainly did not materialize then.

I see HUGE shorting opportunities everywhere. When you see headlines like "Stocks rise on bank hopes", you know it's time to go short. In fact any time there are words stocks, jump and hopes in the same sentence, in times when unemployment rate is about to hit 10%, this is the best cue you can have.

Oh, and the yen is looking poised for a comeback.

And if you think I'm a quack, perhaps you should listen to Roubini, instead (he is the guy who had predicted the implosion of the credit system and derivative markets).
Quoting Subdude
When you keep making the same prediction over and over again, your chances of getting it right increase. You were calling for the bounce last Friday, so it certainly did not materialize then.

I see HUGE shorting opportunities everywhere. When you see headlines like "Stocks rise on bank hopes", you know it's time to go short. In fact any time there are words stocks, jump and hopes in the same sentence, in times when unemployment rate is about to hit 10%, this is the best cue you can have.

Oh, and the yen is looking poised for...
Dear friend,

apart from the fact that from Friday S&P 500 rose by almost 12%, my point (once again), was far from giving any guidance, but only to underline the connection between a rise in the equities and an AUD postive move.

That was all, if you see in this rally a chance to be short on equities or AUD, or go long the yen, that is also a respectable opinion.

I hope for you that will happen, but I have strong doubts about it.
The reason is that it seems that investors look starting to be willing to watch ahead and not behind, ignoring some negative data and focusing on what central banks and governments have done so far.
If these last sessions are just a chance to sell, a bear market rally, I really don't know but give me the benefit of some doubts about it...

Concerning the yen, please consider that Japan economy is not in a good situation at all, which makes it hard for the yen to keep his safe heaven position like it was in 2008.
Moreover, remind that Japan is an export oriented economy that needs to have a weaker currency to perform better.
Here again, I don't see reasons to be long on the yen, even though there's no clear pattern to be short indeed.
new update for AUDUSD, still substained by the positive tone in equities

the short term support in the 0,649 - 0,6520 area is supporting courses for this pair, that is now facing Friday's highs (0,6605) trying to reach the first resistance targets at 0,6615 and 0,6643.

In case of further clearance 0,6720 - 0,6740 is the next main area to monitor.

Personally I would try to close my longs opened at 0,6359 close to this next resistances (0,6615 - 0,6643).
Tomorrow news from M+A Bank are expected to move the pair and I prefere to take my profits before

Trade safe
flat now as I closed my longs yesterday at 0,6615 (+4.1% for a very good trade move).

AUDUSD is poised for consolidation before a new run towards the 0,6635 - 40 resistance and 0,673 on further strenght.

Supports at 0,6545 and 0,649 - 0,6520 can be considered chances to go long again and those are the level I would monitor to try a new buy.
  • Post #1,169
  • Quote
  • Edited Mar 18, 2009 3:13am Mar 17, 2009 8:25pm | Edited Mar 18, 2009 3:13am
strong resistance in the 0.6645 is so far capping AUDUSD and might provide a short term entry point for bears

0.6720 and 0.68 are the two areas to watch upside in case of clearance of 0.6645

Supports at 0.656, 0.653 and 0.6512
Under the latter a new bear move is likely to happen
Well, the past week has made me question everything I know about trading. Maybe a 900 point rally in 6 trading days is normal for markets? Maybe a severe recession can be brought down by a few key public and private sector officials making encouraging comments in the media? Maybe a tiny uptick in new housing construction is a clear signal of an impending recovery?

Maybe, but highly unlikely. I'm going to go out on a limb and guess that new lows are in the cards soon.
this is the market subdude

the heavy selling on February was almost irrational, even if economy is not at a turning point.

You know that investors' habit is to anticipate; if even some small sign of recovery will not be starting in less than six months, then I also believe new lows will be seen.

Meanwhile it's never a mistake to ride the market wave, it works much better for our profit than being contrarian and maybe even right....I've tried it on my skin before.

I see more risk appetite coming, equities still up, as well as EUR, GBP and AUD.
Yen, Usd and Chf will slowly go down against those more risky currencies.
At least this is what I see from here

I was maybe lucky to call a bottom, but there was too much pessimism around and no one talking about bottoms anymore....that's how lows often materialize
Hi Fammira,

This will sound very silly, but it is the beginners forum anyway.

I've been following your posts with interest lately and a question which always puzzles me is that you always base your forecasts on "equities being up or down" I don't understand what relation there is between weakening of the dollar and therefore boosting the equity markets. if someone could really explain this to me.

Do you mind posting the link to the websites that you visit to monitor the activity of the Equities market? which markets do you mean? the US DJIA? is that an early indicator for this pair? so if the DJIA closes higher, then the AUD/USD will also go higher?

Forgive me if I'm missing something here.

Mohammad Reza.
Quoting fatboy1234
Hi Fammira,

This will sound very silly, but it is the beginners forum anyway.

I've been following your posts with interest lately and a question which always puzzles me is that you always base your forecasts on "equities being up or down"...
Hi Mohammad,

welcome to the forum and to this thread!

I am not an experienced trader but I'll try to explain you simply.
While the economy has been slowing down in the last year, some currencies such as USD, CHF and JPY and their countries are perceived safer by the market and the investors, that tend to buy them to protect their money in hard times.
On the opposite, EUR, GBP, AUD, NZD and CAD are considered currencies that gain when risk appetite increases.

You can therefore understand that when equities go up, EUR, GBP, AUD, NZD and CAD tend to go up as well, while USD, CHF and JPY generally go up when the markets go down per contrarian reaction.

This is a first general explanation, please remind that it has been working in this period and it may vary according to many factors.
Moreover, single currencies moves are influenced by many other different factors, such as macroeconomic data of the country or zone, the monetary politic, and incoming news on the short time.

There are many sites you can visit to monitor the markets.
Here's a commonly used one> http://finance.yahoo.com/

Forex Factory main page http://www.forexfactory.com/ offers you a calendar of the main data and events that can influence forex market.
You can follow it and make your daily experience to share in the forum http://www.forexfactory.com/forum.php
new fuel to risk appetite connected currencies after FOMC news

AUDUSD made new highs at 0,68 with 0,685 as natural target of the move.

still interest to buy the dips around 0,67

I am flat at the moment, would try a short in case the pair manages to reach 0,685 or on the down break of 0,67 with first target 0,6640 -50 and 0,6566 then.

if you want to trade the long side, I would wait for a test of 0,67 - 0.6720 for a possible bounce and a new move to 0,68 and 0,685 then
AUDUSD still up outpacing yesterday's highs with a new top at 0,6828

next resistance at 0,685 is close

I had though to try a short there but it seems it might be too soon, with the pair that might keep pushing to reach 0,70 within the next too weeks

after these lasts up spikes I prefere not to trade the long side and wait for AUDUSD to reach 0,685 abd 0,7 before considering a short
Thanks Fammira, I'll try to read more about these things and get up to speed.
watch for the 0,685 area

we can go long again at that point or short below for a short term trade

tight trading range between recent highs and lows (0,6722 and 0,6944)

On a wider view, still hard to say what will the next first move be, AUDUSD should be poised for consolidation before trying to reach 0,70

some weakness for more correction is not excluded, with 0,6560 that would be a good new long entry point if pair corrects before reaching 0,70
.6825ish would be a nice entry point for a shot up to .7000
"Don't work for your money, but let money work for you."
  • Post #1,179
  • Quote
  • Edited Mar 23, 2009 9:49am Mar 22, 2009 10:17pm | Edited Mar 23, 2009 9:49am
I made a mistake a few days ago and placed a short order right at the support line of 0.6845 which is still open, and now I placed another sell order at 0.7001, so both my sell orders are active now.
What are my options now?


Do you think this pair has the momentum to break the 0.7000 and go higher today or tomorrow? or it will just range trade like this? and maybe retrace to the previous 0.6900 level again, I noticed there is a gap, so maybe it wants to fill the gap?

Any feedback appreciated.

Thanking you all in advance.

Mohammad Reza.
Quoting fatboy1234
I made a mistake a few days ago and placed a short order right at the support line of 0.6845 which is still open, What are my options now?

1 - Lower my SL to 0.6970 (currently at 0.7030) ? or
2 - Average down from 0.6940 with another sell order?


Do you think this pair has the momentum to break the 0.7000 within the next 3 or 4 days? or it will just range trade like this?

Any feedback appreciated.

Thanking you all in advance.

Mohammad Reza.
hi mohammad

this pair looks still strong and is poised to go up more

watch the two closer resistance levels at 0,6996 and 0,7032

I want to try to go short at those levels with a firm stop loss and a 0,67 - 0,68 target
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