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AUD/USD

  • #1,201
  • Mar 29, 2009 2:57am Mar 29, 2009 2:57am
I note that the AUD is trending up but the range is getting larger and the lows are increasing. Any thoughts to help me.
  • #1,202
  • Mar 29, 2009 3:47am Mar 29, 2009 3:47am
Quoting 95ford
I note that the AUD is trending up but the range is getting larger and the lows are increasing. Any thoughts to help me.
hi 95ford,

on my view this aud to be testing the support level so overall this will be back to the 0.6785 Area or more to 0.6560 if the Price break 0.6900

here the chart

cheer
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aud monthly.gif Size: 25 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: aud weekly.gif Size: 24 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: aud dailly.gif Size: 24 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: aud 4hr.gif Size: 23 KB
  • #1,203
  • Mar 29, 2009 9:29am Mar 29, 2009 9:29am
Agree, I am still on bull camp but will watch 0,69

Still favour the long side, though some recent AUD long seem to have
Turned towards NZD

overall tone is still positive though, with aussie still holding better than EUR and GBP
  • #1,204
  • Mar 29, 2009 10:43pm Mar 29, 2009 10:43pm
Quoting my30marahaba
hi 95ford,

on my view this aud to be testing the support level so overall this will be back to the 0.6785 Area or more to 0.6560 if the Price break 0.6900

here the chart

cheer
Aud nice break out the 0.69..... continue to find another support on yellow line.. 0.6785 - 0.6700 Area
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aud 4hr nice breake out.gif Size: 25 KB
  • #1,205
  • Mar 30, 2009 3:10am Mar 30, 2009 3:10am
I'll be short on the rallies I will exit at .6720 So far this site has helped me establish a trading style and given me confidence of someone to get ideas through. Thanks
  • #1,206
  • Mar 31, 2009 2:41am Mar 31, 2009 2:41am
shorts had two good days, it was wise to turn south.

AUD bounced after testing the two supports at 0,6815 and 0,6770

now resistance at 0.69 is still capping this pair, tone will be positive again only over 0,6940
  • #1,207
  • Mar 31, 2009 11:48am Mar 31, 2009 11:48am
Quoting fammira
shorts had two good days, it was wise to turn south.

AUD bounced after testing the two supports at 0,6815 and 0,6770

now resistance at 0.69 is still capping this pair, tone will be positive again only over 0,6940
i'm agree with you, long 0.6960 and short 0.6900
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aushort.gif Size: 19 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: aushort1.gif Size: 21 KB
  • #1,208
  • Mar 31, 2009 2:37pm Mar 31, 2009 2:37pm
Actually, this is as high as the pair will be in the coming days, IMHO. A great shorting opportunity.
  • #1,209
  • Apr 1, 2009 12:51am Apr 1, 2009 12:51am
Quoting Subdude
Actually, this is as high as the pair will be in the coming days, IMHO. A great shorting opportunity.
personally i see this consolidation as another chance to go long

I think AUDUSD will slowly keep moving higher, though EUR and above all GBP could outperform the aussie

yen still weak but also very tradeable due to the uncertainity of some moments and some news, but the overall tone is really improving.

Though is always safe to trade according to a valuable strategy, I don't see reasons to go short
  • #1,210
  • Apr 1, 2009 6:01am Apr 1, 2009 6:01am
Quoting fammira
yen still weak but also very tradeable due to the uncertainity of some moments and some news, but the overall tone is really improving.

Though is always safe to trade according to a valuable strategy, I don't see reasons to go short
What are you even talking about? How do you gauge that tone is improving? Whose tone, anyway - talking heads on financial networks?
  • #1,211
  • Apr 1, 2009 1:43pm Apr 1, 2009 1:43pm
Quoting Subdude
What are you even talking about? How do you gauge that tone is improving? Whose tone, anyway - talking heads on financial networks?
a 20% increase for S&P 500 in two weeks, that's what I am even talking about

I dont watch financial networks, I just look at the markets
And they are always right.

Your opinion is always respectable, you can go short if you are sure things will go down.
My idea is that there are about 1000 pips still coming in GBP, and 600 - 800 in EUR and AUD in this month.

As always, I might be wrong.
But as I have told you before, I have learnt on my skin that following the market will make you gain a few, indeed going against the market can make you lose a lot, or at least make your bet riskier.
And risk is something that needs to be minimized in trading.

Once I started to trade based on this idea (against the idea of fishing bottoms to do the trade of my life), my losses started to turn into gains.(small, yeah, and sometimes luckily a bit more consistent, but still gains).
You can call it luck, but it works.

I don't say that you are wrong and I am right, but I just watch and notice that when we started arguing about this pair and I said why I would have gone long, AUDUSD was trading around 0,62....I know because I started buying at those levels.
  • #1,212
  • Apr 1, 2009 2:21pm Apr 1, 2009 2:21pm
Quoting fammira
a 20% increase for S&P 500 in two weeks, that's what I am even talking about

I dont watch financial networks, I just look at the markets
And they are always right.
What I meant is - can you offer much beyond hindsight and statements of publicly known data expressed in poor English?
Quote
Though is always safe to trade according to a valuable strategy, I don't see reasons to go short
This statement made as much sense as "All your base are belong to us."

We all know the markets have rallied 20%, anyone can see that; stating the obvious is redundant. But what targets do you have for the pair, on what time frame? What are you basing these targets on - fibs, PA etc?

As for my opinion that I posted yesterday... well, if you plot the exact timing of it on the chart, you will see that there was roughly 100 pips to be had on the short side, immediately afterward.
  • #1,213
  • Apr 1, 2009 8:55pm Apr 1, 2009 8:55pm
Subdude, my post are based on support and resistance levels that I see on the charts
Here I was just trying to underline the positive correlation between equities and AUD.
It might be obvious statements to you, but in this forum I just try to share opinions to find the best strategy on this pair.

AUDUSD strong again this morning, still helped by positive equities and better than expected trade surplus data.

I am holding my long position, with first target in the 0,7040 area, then recent highs at 0,7095 wich might be hard to overcome in the short term.

I see support around 0,69 - 0,6920.
The tone would change to bearish just under 0,685

Good trading to all!
  • #1,214
  • Apr 1, 2009 9:30pm Apr 1, 2009 9:30pm
Quoting fammira
Subdude, my post are based on support and resistance levels that I see on the charts
Please post a chart with your support levels, at least once. I'm really curious to see how you draw your S/R lines.
  • #1,215
  • Apr 1, 2009 10:01pm Apr 1, 2009 10:01pm
Quoting Subdude
Please post a chart with your support levels, at least once. I'm really curious to see how you draw your S/R lines.
I simply just use daily highs and lows, and my best chart is a notebook
  • #1,216
  • Apr 1, 2009 10:08pm Apr 1, 2009 10:08pm
Quoting fammira
I simply just use daily highs and lows, and my best chart is a notebook
Uh, that's not what most people would call S/R levels. You could at least try and justify your point with pivots - even someone as lazy as me has figured out what those are for.
  • #1,217
  • Apr 1, 2009 10:20pm Apr 1, 2009 10:20pm
Quoting Subdude
Uh, that's not what most people would call S/R levels. You could at least try and justify your point with pivots - even someone as lazy as me has figured out what those are for.
I just try to share what I see.

0,7052 is March 25th high, wich is where I believe the pair is headed to in this session

then we have March 24th high at 0,7095, level that might be harder to clear this week

downside main support is yesterday's low at 0,685
  • #1,218
  • Apr 1, 2009 10:41pm Apr 1, 2009 10:41pm
Quoting fammira
I just try to share what I see.

0,7052 is March 25th high, wich is where I believe the pair is headed to in this session

then we have March 24th high at 0,7095, level that might be harder to clear this week

downside main support is yesterday's low at 0,685
What you are sharing is strange, unconventional and unsubstantiated. Why not Monday low, instead? How about Friday? I see no reason to look only one day behind.

Here are the S/R levels based on my software's pivot points:

R2: 7090
R1: 7040
PP: 6950
S1: 6900
S2: 6810
  • #1,219
  • Apr 1, 2009 11:05pm Apr 1, 2009 11:05pm
Hey guys..I don't ussually post in here, but I am trading aussie tonight.. This pair is over bought even on the high TF's. I am short to .6900

Take care,

Scotty B
  • #1,220
  • Apr 2, 2009 3:20am Apr 2, 2009 3:20am
Yeah, this is starting to look very much like it did last year when the pair was pushing parity, it seems everyone wants yields again. 3.25 seems like an awful high interest rate these days though. Add to that a double-top on the hourly, and look out below.
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