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EURUSD

  • #61,841
  • Feb 4, 2009 10:05pm Feb 4, 2009 10:05pm
Will this be good or bad for euro when they hold rates steady. I have seen both instances in the past, up and down euro.

Oil hovering around $40, OPEC looking to cut production again, US inventories UP, global demand down, I see euro dropping in the short term but where is the bottom? Will we see 1.26 - 1.25 by March/April, who knows?

Holding rates steady signifies a wait and see how things will turn out till next meeting.

Should I just flip a coin, easier. Opinions please, thanks.
  • #61,842
  • Feb 4, 2009 10:06pm Feb 4, 2009 10:06pm
Quoting D&d
Anyone wanna to earn 1000 pips ?
What pair is that?
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #61,843
  • Feb 4, 2009 10:15pm Feb 4, 2009 10:15pm
Quoting Chicky
What pair is that?
USDPLN
  • #61,844
  • Feb 4, 2009 10:15pm Feb 4, 2009 10:15pm
Quoting D&d
Anyone wanna to earn 1000 pips ?
nice chart but on the monthly and weekly chart it showing at the top of a double top.. the previous high of 3.6242 is where its at now.. it may fail.. down might be the better bet... the bottom is 15,645 pips down
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #61,845
  • Feb 4, 2009 10:16pm Feb 4, 2009 10:16pm
Quoting macockiner2
Yes that makes sense but in a recent book i read they stated this;

Cause: Interest rates go up, and as a result the cost to borrow money increases. When the cost of borrowing money goes up, fewer people will be interested in borrowing money.

Effect: The demand for the currency will go down, and fewer people will buy the currency creating a weaker currency.

I guess they're stating it all boils down to supply and demand.

I would love your feedback to this,

Thanks
Interest rates mean almost nothing right now. When money was easy to borrow, the carry trade and other methods to arbitrage the currency markets were all over the place, leverage many times I am sure. Now money, albeit cheap to borrow, have interest rates spreads that really amount to little or nothing; the few points aren't there anymore, and since you can no longer afford to leverage and have to raise capital....it's just a mess. Why play interest rates spreads when you can get corporate bonds that are yielding huge dividends?
  • #61,846
  • Feb 4, 2009 10:18pm Feb 4, 2009 10:18pm
OIL 40.24
  • #61,847
  • Feb 4, 2009 10:18pm Feb 4, 2009 10:18pm
by the way, getting long?
  • #61,848
  • Feb 4, 2009 10:24pm Feb 4, 2009 10:24pm
Quoting TIckerShuffl
by the way, getting long?
have been for a couple hours
  • #61,849
  • Feb 4, 2009 10:24pm Feb 4, 2009 10:24pm
Quoting macockiner2
Yes that makes sense but in a recent book i read they stated this;

Cause: Interest rates go up, and as a result the cost to borrow money increases. When the cost of borrowing money goes up, fewer people will be interested in borrowing money.

Effect: The demand for the currency will go down, and fewer people will buy the currency creating a weaker currency.

I guess they're stating it all boils down to supply and demand.

I would love your feedback to this,

Thanks
As far as interest rates going up, there is two sides to the equation. Borrowing costs go up which means those doing the lending get paid more - i.e. the carry trade. Short low interest rate currency and Long high interest rate currency. Which means:

Cause: Interest rates go up, attracts money from lower interest rate currencies.

Effect: Currency appreciates and other currency goes down.
  • #61,850
  • Feb 4, 2009 10:29pm Feb 4, 2009 10:29pm
Quoting gatorinla
nice chart but on the monthly and weekly chart it showing at the top of a double top.. the previous high of 3.6242 is where its at now.. it may fail.. down might be the better bet... the bottom is 15,645 pips down
Taht's what I'm talking about, see USDPLN chart. :-
  • #61,851
  • Feb 4, 2009 10:37pm Feb 4, 2009 10:37pm
Quoting SunTrader
As far as interest rates going up, there is two sides to the equation. Borrowing costs go up which means those doing the lending get paid more - i.e. the carry trade. Short low interest rate currency and Long high interest rate currency. Which means:

Cause: Interest rates go up, attracts money from lower interest rate currencies.

Effect: Currency appreciates and other currency goes down.
Thanks for the feedback

Off to bed for now, managed to scalp a few pips today riding the channels

Cheers,
  • #61,852
  • Feb 4, 2009 10:50pm Feb 4, 2009 10:50pm
Quoting D&d
Taht's what I'm talking about, see USDPLN chart. :-
oh... oh well im in..hell of a spread... i bought one.. just for the hell of it...risky since dollar so strong... what country is that?
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #61,853
  • Feb 4, 2009 10:54pm Feb 4, 2009 10:54pm
The [NZD/YEN] mainly stays at the 45's with actions above 46 and below 45 being short lived from Feb 3. The zone from 44.80 to the Feb 2 low of 44.19 is bottomish in terms of price actions. The 21-days MA is down to 47.92, and the Kijun-sen caps at 46.38. Heavish conditions continue. The [STG/NZD] struggles to move higher at the territory above 2.8, and so far cannot clear 2.86 on NY close basis (not seen since Oct 27).

The commodity currencies including the Loonie saw volatile trading initial trading higher against the Greenback but ultimately ended the NY session on the downside on the back of a weaker Wall St and also on earlier news that Fitch downgraded Russia's long-term foreign debt. The [USD/CAD] rose from an earlier low of 1.2226 to and o/n high of 1.2440 before closing at 1.2324. The Loonie could come under pressure later as the Ivey PMI f/c to come in at 40.0 will likely continue to show a further contraction in business activity as the country grapples with a recession & ever-declining commodity prices. Buying orders at 1.2280 by Canadian corporates will provide support and selling orders at 1.2375 by specs will keep the range this session.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #61,854
  • Feb 4, 2009 10:57pm Feb 4, 2009 10:57pm
Quoting gatorinla
i bought one.... what country is that?
polish zloty...

congrats there gator, whaddya gonna do with it?
FUBAR...
  • #61,855
  • Feb 4, 2009 11:02pm Feb 4, 2009 11:02pm
i got screwed didnt i? *L*
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #61,856
  • Feb 4, 2009 11:04pm Feb 4, 2009 11:04pm
Quoting TIckerShuffl
Interest rates mean almost nothing right now. When money was easy to borrow, the carry trade and other methods to arbitrage the currency markets were all over the place, leverage many times I am sure. Now money, albeit cheap to borrow, have interest rates spreads that really amount to little or nothing; the few points aren't there anymore, and since you can no longer afford to leverage and have to raise capital....it's just a mess. Why play interest rates spreads when you can get corporate bonds that are yielding huge dividends?
Interest rates aren't meaningless. I'm not even gonna go into that one. Tomorrows interest rate announcement will most likely create volatility
  • #61,857
  • Feb 4, 2009 11:05pm Feb 4, 2009 11:05pm
im gonna save it with my zimbawia trade.. in about 200 years it will be worth .50 $
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #61,858
  • Feb 4, 2009 11:07pm Feb 4, 2009 11:07pm
Head and Shoulders on the 1h? So short on the top of the shoulder 1.2858.
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Trade on your own risk Plan your trade&trade your plan dont be a
  • #61,859
  • Feb 4, 2009 11:09pm Feb 4, 2009 11:09pm
anyone know japanese くそっ i got screwed
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #61,860
  • Feb 4, 2009 11:12pm Feb 4, 2009 11:12pm
Quoting Trading Cat
Head and Shoulders on the 1h? So short on the top of the shoulder 1.2858.
*tear* i wasnt gonna trade.. but that beautiful *all choke up*
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
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