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Igrok Method. Q's & A's. Comments, thoughts and ideas

  • #1
  • First Post: Mar 18, 2007 6:39pm Mar 18, 2007 6:39pm
I’m starting this new thread cause it would be much easier for me to post something at one place instead of replying on numerous e-mails or commenting on different issues in many other threads scattered all over the forum. Here I will be posting some of my ideas, thoughts and comments regarding my method, my market views and some general FX trading issues. Everyone is welcome to participate. Before posting here your questions and comments, please understand that I do not provide any educational or trading advisory services and always express my personal opinion only. Also please note, that my method is not a mechanical trading system. It is a discretionary technique mostly based on TA, but also includes a number of systematic elements and certain rules. Therefore, at least some basic knowledge of the theory of TA is a must for every participant willing to post here a question or a comment regarding the market’s behavior. Common sense is welcome as well.
  • #2
  • Mar 18, 2007 7:38pm Mar 18, 2007 7:38pm
ok, my approach is to pic the USDCHF and GBPUSD pair and ask u to make a TA of it so we can learn how to draw proper lines and analyse etc etc

so, the current USDCHF And GBPUSD. What do u think master Igrok?
  • #3
  • Edited 8:21pm Mar 18, 2007 8:08pm | Edited 8:21pm
Quoting don perry
ok, my approach is to pic the USDCHF and GBPUSD pair and ask u to make a TA of it so we can learn how to draw proper lines and analyse etc etc

so, the current USDCHF And GBPUSD. What do u think master Igrok?
Cable is likely to complete a huge broadening triangle that started since December 2003. Now it is building a major diagonal with target at 2.0000 or slighly above. If it eventually turns into a diamond then we will see something like the following: down to 1.75 -> up to 1.95 -> down to 1.35-40. Should take 3-5 years or so.

USD/CHF is likely to reach 1.16-1.15 zone before turning up again to target 1.41-43 area. 1.13 level seem to be out of reach. Draw the line on monthly chart from the top of 1989 to the top of 2000, then take a parallel and place it on the bottom of 1995 and you will understand why.
  • #4
  • Mar 18, 2007 8:26pm Mar 18, 2007 8:26pm
some of us don't know your system
what are the rules?

TEB
  • #5
  • Mar 18, 2007 8:27pm Mar 18, 2007 8:27pm
USD/CHF is likely to reach 1.16-1.15 zone before turning up again to target 1.41-43 area. 1.13 level seem to be out of reach. Draw the line on monthly chart from the top of 1989 to the top of 2000, then take a parallel and place it on the bottom of 1995 and you will understand why.[/quote]

I'm Just reading Beat the Odd's and stumbled on your thread. Oh Yea!
In your book you suggest a chart software (Omega Super Charts) I am a newby and am wondering if possibly there is an available free internet chart provider that would suit my needs for a time. Great to see your thread and am looking so forward to the future. Thanks for your attention to the matter of those of us with less experience. Your assistance is greatly appreciated.

I'll try to be specific with questions in the future.

Icy Pips.
  • #6
  • Mar 18, 2007 8:45pm Mar 18, 2007 8:45pm
wow, talk about long term
  • #7
  • Mar 18, 2007 9:20pm Mar 18, 2007 9:20pm
Quoting don perry
wow, talk about long term
So, be more specific about your questions. Intraday I usually trade on the templates.
But those longer-term views often make a lot of sense. The market usually provides opportunities to take a longer-term position targeting in excess of 1000 pips once or twice a year. It often gives a huge advantage in terms of r/r ratio as well. For example, that obvious bottom on swissy in the very end of 2004 I projected in advance. It allowed me to enter a long position at 1.1295 with stops just about 40-50 pips but on this single trade I have been able to take the entire yearly range in 2005 with that single position. Last year equally obvious third touch of a very major supportive trendline on the EUR/USD at around 1.1860 had also offered a perfect opportunity to take a longer-term long position with miscroscopic stops. Those "trades of opportunity" are also in line with my templates, but unlike those used for intraday trading, they offer the best r/r ratio money can buy.
  • #8
  • Mar 18, 2007 9:26pm Mar 18, 2007 9:26pm
Hi Igrok!

I am sure this will be a valuable thread here on FF! There will be a lot of very keen traders here willing to suck up some of your experience

(BTW, just ordered your book! I knew I'd heard your name somewhere before)

Take care,

Daemien
  • #9
  • Mar 18, 2007 9:28pm Mar 18, 2007 9:28pm
Quoting Icy Pips
I'm Just reading Beat the Odd's and stumbled on your thread. Oh Yea!
In your book you suggest a chart software (Omega Super Charts) I am a newby and am wondering if possibly there is an available free internet chart provider that would suit my needs for a time. Great to see your thread and am looking so forward to the future. Thanks for your attention to the matter of those of us with less experience. Your assistance is greatly appreciated.
Icy Pips.
I'm sorry, I don't know who provides good charting software for free. Never used anything like that. For real time trading I'm using FutureSource Workstation because it offers something very important to me and saves me a lot of time. On their charts they mark every other trading day in different colour. Such feature just perfectly matches with my "templates" because it requires knowing of the direction of the main move of the day at any given moment.
  • #10
  • Mar 18, 2007 9:30pm Mar 18, 2007 9:30pm
Quoting Daemien
Hi Igrok!

I am sure this will be a valuable thread here on FF! There will be a lot of very keen traders here willing to suck up some of your experience

(BTW, just ordered your book! I knew I'd heard your name somewhere before)

Take care,

Daemien
I bet we will not be able to change the market but at least we might try to suck a little of blood out of the dealers that most of us are trading against.
  • #11
  • Mar 18, 2007 10:24pm Mar 18, 2007 10:24pm
ok igrok so looking on the daily charts, what is your analysis for euro and swissy
  • #12
  • Mar 18, 2007 10:25pm Mar 18, 2007 10:25pm
Igrok,

Good to see your thread here. I finished reading 'beat the odds'. Not sure if forum rules allow me to compliment the book here.
Any way I would like to know your medium and short term view on Eur/Jpy.
Cheers.
  • #13
  • Mar 18, 2007 10:38pm Mar 18, 2007 10:38pm
Hi

What is this 'beat the odds' ? is it book? where can I get it?

Thank you
Igor
  • #14
  • Mar 18, 2007 10:54pm Mar 18, 2007 10:54pm
Quoting don perry
ok igrok so looking on the daily charts, what is your analysis for euro and swissy
The EUR/USD have changed the direction of the main move of the year last Friday, while swissy did same thing a week earlier. Normally a good extention must follow such a change. Like I said before, it seems to me that 1.1640 is a must within perhaps 2-3 weeks from now and the EUR/USD is likely to take out the stops above the previous major high at 1.3660. At the same time, levels 1.40 on the euro and 1.13 on the swissy seem to be out of reach for now and perhaps for another few years ahead.
But this is just a projection. An educated guess, if you wish. Nothing more than that. You have to keep in mind that TA should be used not to determine where the market is going. TA purpose is to develop a trading plan with all the necessary attributes such as where to enter a position, where to place stops and what would be the target. So, those projections above just show that being USD short is preferable for the moment. The real trading signals for me come from the templates. Whenever the market chart matches a certain template then I get into it.
  • #15
  • Mar 19, 2007 2:41am Mar 19, 2007 2:41am
Fantastic. Woke up in the morning (I'm in GMT+2 zone) - and here it is, your new thread, already alive and populated. Good luck to us all!

I feel that I'm a somewhat TA-challenged (not to say handicapped) person. I understand and use trendlines, s/r, channels and their middles - and that's all. I have hard time identifying and trusting more complicated price formations. I hope this thread will help me overcome my blindness.

I'll pick on the following excerpt to ask several basic questions:

Quoting Igrok
Cable is likely to complete a huge broadening triangle that started since December 2003. Now it is building a major diagonal with target at 2.0000 or slighly above. If it eventually turns into a diamond then we will see something like the following: down to 1.75 -> up to 1.95 -> down to 1.35-40. Should take 3-5 years or so.
1. I understand the "up to 1.95 -> down to 1.35-40" part. But why "down to 1.75"? Why not 1.71 (where the price has been in 11/2005) to form a symmetrical diamond? Why not, say, 1.69 to form an asymmetrical diamond? When I read TA texts, a diamond seems to be almost anything, so how do you know beforehand, what shape it will eventually get?

2. A more general question re. price formations. Consider a diamond bottom. Many times it has a head and shoulders inside. Frequently it contains a double bottom. Isn’t an asymmetrical diamond similar to a flag? Isn’t its right-hand side identified a triangle? Now, the question that I always have re. such formations is: don’t all these shapes reflect something more basic? For example, it seems to me that (bottom) diamonds appear when the price travels down and up within channel borders, meets a support line, hesitates – and then breaks out (or simply continues down the channel, if the upward breakout fails). So, wouldn’t we be more parsimonious and hence efficient, if we identify and concentrate on the more basic price action elements - trending s/r (channel borders) and horizontal s/r?

3. Regarding the time frame. As you suggest, identifying these formation produces opportunities with excellent r/r ratios. In the example above, you plan to harvest about 10,000 pips within 5 years. About 170 pips a month are great given that you don't invest much time for collecting them. However, if you are ready for hard work, and if the same formations provide you good signals on a lower time frame, wouldn't it be more efficient to trade more short terms? After all, 170 pips are "just" a day and a half's average volatility of the cable...
sans peur et sans reproche
  • #16
  • Mar 19, 2007 3:03am Mar 19, 2007 3:03am
Quoting Igrok
I’m starting this new thread cause it would be much easier for me to post something at one place instead of replying on numerous e-mails or commenting on different issues in many other threads scattered all over the forum. Here I will be posting some of my ideas, thoughts and comments regarding my method, my market views and some general FX trading issues. Everyone is welcome to participate. Before posting here your questions and comments, please understand that I do not provide any educational or trading advisory services and always express my personal opinion only. Also please note, that my method is not a mechanical trading system. It is a discretionary technique mostly based on TA, but also includes a number of systematic elements and certain rules. Therefore, at least some basic knowledge of the theory of TA is a must for every participant willing to post here a question or a comment regarding the market’s behavior. Common sense is welcome as well.
The most obvious question should be : "Mr Igor, are your "high probability" setups working ? Did you test them ? What are the results then?

But no, nobody is asking these very simple questions, we just have to take the author's words for it.

I challenge the author, show us the PROOF that your setups are making money! Come on, it should be easy, you "invented" those setups so it should be easy for you to demonstrate the effectiveness of your system.

Are you game Igor, or are you just going to avoid a very simple question again?
  • #17
  • Mar 19, 2007 3:23am Mar 19, 2007 3:23am
Come on, FXTerminator, Igrok has been completely explicit: "Before posting here your questions and comments, please understand that I do not provide any educational or trading advisory services and always express my personal opinion only." IMO, he doesn't owe anyone any proof. You can read this thread - and you can avoid it. Furthermore, IMHO and as it has been already suggested to you in your thread, any TA discussion is not, and is not meant to be, a trading system. You know what head and shoulders are, right? You made this knowledge into a profitable trading system, right? Why don't you accuse Murphy of not providing the proof that H&S work? I personally have a hard time believing that H&S are not an epiphenomenon of other, more important things. I expect this thread to convince me they are useful. Once I'm convinced and able to work with theem, it's up to me to build a system suitable for my personality that would use this knowledge. Or not.
sans peur et sans reproche
  • #18
  • Edited 4:17am Mar 19, 2007 3:56am | Edited 4:17am
Quoting ilanr
Fantastic. Woke up in the morning (I'm in GMT+2 zone) - and here it is, your new thread, already alive and populated. Good luck to us all!

I feel that I'm a somewhat TA-challenged (not to say handicapped) person. I understand and use trendlines, s/r, channels and their middles - and that's all. I have hard time identifying and trusting more complicated price formations. I hope this thread will help me overcome my blindness.

I'll pick on the following excerpt to ask several basic questions:
1. I understand the "up to 1.95 -> down to 1.35-40" part. But why "down to 1.75"? Why not 1.71 (where the price has been in 11/2005) to form a symmetrical diamond? Why not, say, 1.69 to form an asymmetrical diamond? When I read TA texts, a diamond seems to be almost anything, so how do you know beforehand, what shape it will eventually get?
2. A more general question re. price formations. Consider a diamond bottom. Many times it has a head and shoulders inside. Frequently it contains a double bottom. Isn’t an asymmetrical diamond similar to a flag? Isn’t its right-hand side identified a triangle? Now, the question that I always have re. such formations is: don’t all these shapes reflect something more basic? For example, it seems to me that (bottom) diamonds appear when the price travels down and up within channel borders, meets a support line, hesitates – and then breaks out (or simply continues down the channel, if the upward breakout fails). So, wouldn’t we be more parsimonious and hence efficient, if we identify and concentrate on the more basic price action elements - trending s/r (channel borders) and horizontal s/r?
3. Regarding the time frame. As you suggest, identifying these formation produces opportunities with excellent r/r ratios. In the example above, you plan to harvest about 10,000 pips within 5 years. About 170 pips a month are great given that you don't invest much time for collecting them. However, if you are ready for hard work, and if the same formations provide you good signals on a lower time frame, wouldn't it be more efficient to trade more short terms? After all, 170 pips are "just" a day and a half's average volatility of the cable...
A particular diamond shape usually gives you the idea of what should happen next. Single-diagonal diamond normally breaks in the direction opposite to the direction of the main move of its major diagonal. Going down to something like 1.69 directly from here will create a continuation pattern rather than reversal. Double-diagonal shape is also possible. Only in such case we will have to wait till the actual break takes place. Given the other technical circumstances, I guess that seeing a reverse is more probable. There was an example of double - diagonal diamond on the EUR/USD just recently. It has been discussed here. http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=16293&page=11
I didn’t say that I’m going to make a single trade over this time. I just can sit on this position and forget about it till it comes to the target, meanwhile trading this or any other pair on any other time frame or try to build a pyramid on that base.
  • #19
  • Mar 19, 2007 4:07am Mar 19, 2007 4:07am
Looks like a very promising thread. Looking forward to beat the odds and to learning how to move the market.
  • #20
  • Mar 19, 2007 4:48am Mar 19, 2007 4:48am
Quoting Igrok
There was an example of double - diagonal diamond on the EUR/USD just recently. It has been discussed here. http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=16293&page=11
This is exactly my problem. I remember that discussion. In the chart in that thread, I saw price moving within a channel, ready to continue up or to break out. Traex (the person who posted the chart) saw there a text-book head and shoulders. You saw the diagonal diamond. As you are more experienced, I assume that your view has more chances to be correct, however, I'm blind re. how you arrived at it. Is there any way for you to post a diamond drawing on a weekly cable chart?

Quoting Igrok
I didn’t say that I’m going to make a single trade over this time. I just can sit on this position and forget about it till it comes to the target, meanwhile trading this or any other pair on any other time frame or try to build a pyramid on that base.
Meanwhile, your capital is tied down to this position. Don't we want to find the time frame which would be optimal for the time we are ready to invest in trading?
sans peur et sans reproche
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