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Attachments: Igrok Method. Q's & A's. Comments, thoughts and ideas
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Igrok Method. Q's & A's. Comments, thoughts and ideas

  • Post #61
  • Quote
  • Edited at 4:43am Mar 21, 2007 2:21am | Edited at 4:43am
Quoting mathematician
I was wondering if you could clear up the average daily range technique
1.My personal favorite ATR template is #18.4. It usually provides great opportunities for trading in the ranging markets. It also can be extended in time if the initial trade was taken in the direction of the main move of the week. In such case it could be kept into the end of the week or till a weekly average range is fully formed. For example: Monday's range on Cable was insignificant and below average, but the market provided an opportunity to take a long position on #18.4 with stops less than 30 pips. That position could be kept open into Tuesday and pehaps even into the end of the week.
2. I don't use any specific indicators or calculations for defining ATR. When I developed those templates initially, the average ranges were much bigger that they are now. The ATR for USD/DEM used to be in excess of 150-180 pips. Now I usually look into history for 30-60 days only and tailor each startegy accordingly.
3. The stops I always place on the opposite side of intraday range if I trade in the direction of the main move of the day. The signal to get out with loss would be another change of the main move of the day/week/month/year. So I place those stops just above or below the previous high/low. In this case even 1 extra pip is enough. However make sure that you're not getting ripped off by a dealer in case the market doesn't change the direction, but a dealer still executes the stops. For that reason I usually have individually customed agreements with dealers and banks. They don't do such tricks with me and execute my stops in accordance with EBS pricing. Also with dealers I don't have slippages for contracts up to 10 mio. and with banks up to 50 mio. (sometimes).
Fantastic contribution "Igrok" (I still doubt Igrok has the time to contribute!) haha forgive my boldness here. Anyway, I've read the book and I'm utilizing it very well, in flow with the templates and market momentum.

The templates can also be customized to suit one style, and best of all, no indicators whatsoever. What triggers fundamentally, will be translated technically on the chart.
Take a look at Cable now. Classic and standard #19.1 situation. Or, as an option, # 18.4 could be used with just 5-6 pips stop on intramonth basis. Also turning into intraday #18.4 now.
Quoting Igrok
Take a look at Cable now. Classic and standard #19.1 situation. Or, as an option, # 18.4 could be used with just 5-6 pips stop on intramonth basis. Also turning into intraday #18.4 now.
Yeah, this was literally a "text-book" case.

Could you please, as time goes by and as they eventualize, post more of such examples? Applying your ideas to on-going market is much more educational than plainly reading about them or locating examples in historical charts.

And thank you for being patient with my off-topic excursions...
sans peur et sans reproche
  • Post #65
  • Quote
  • Edited at 3:12pm Mar 21, 2007 3:02pm | Edited at 3:12pm
Here it is: #18.1 on the EUR/USD. Just like the doctor prescribed.
Hi Igrok and everyone,
I've been lurking in the background of this thread and needless to say very interesting. I just ordered your book and looking forward to the read....
Quoting Igrok
Here it is: #18.1 on the EUR/USD. Just like the doctor prescribed.
Doctor, does your prescription refer to the situation in the end of GMT 0700? Then why isn't it a 19.1? Or you refer to the breakout following the US interest rate announcement? But 18.1 is supposed to be entered during the first European hours. I'm sure I don't get something.
sans peur et sans reproche
Quoting ilanr
Doctor, does your prescription refer to the situation in the end of GMT 0700? Then why isn't it a 19.1? Or you refer to the breakout following the US interest rate announcement? But 18.1 is supposed to be entered during the first European hours. I'm sure I don't get something.
There was an obvious reason for a delay in timing but eventually we still got the standard situation. It has just been shifted on the time scale. Look, just 3 hours have left to the end of the day with 30 pips intraday range. I don’t really think that you have been expecting the market to die today in that narrow swamp. Obviously the pair had to complete the range before closing and the signal for taking a position came in the form of #18.1.
Quoting Igrok
There was an obvious reason for a delay in timing but eventually we still got the standard situation. It has just been shifted on the time scale. Look, just 3 hours have left to the end of the day with 30 pips intraday range. I don’t really think that you have been expecting the market to die today in that narrow swamp. Obviously the pair had to complete the range before closing and the signal for taking a position came in the form of #18.1.
Not only the timing, two more characteristics would make it difficult for me to identify this day as #18.1: 1) the market wasn't drifting on "both sides of the opening price", rather, it was below it all the day, and 2) the new high wasn't made "directly after forming the bottom of the range", but almost 5 hours later.
sans peur et sans reproche
  • Post #70
  • Quote
  • Edited at 6:03pm Mar 21, 2007 4:56pm | Edited at 6:03pm
Quoting ilanr
Not only the timing, two more characteristics would make it difficult for me to identify this day as #18.1: 1) the market wasn't drifting on "both sides of the opening price", rather, it was below it all the day, and 2) the new high wasn't made "directly after forming the bottom of the range", but almost 5 hours later.
1. On my charts the open of the day and the high before the news came out are different prices. The difference was not that big but it existed. The market was trading above the open price.
2. The delay was caused by the obvious reason. The market was expecting a news scheduled for a particular time.
3. The change in the direction of the main move of the day just three hours before the end of the day and with 30 pips intraday range plus on a major news release practically guarantees the extension at least into ATR. Like shooting a fish in a barrell.
Quoting Igrok
3. The change in the direction of the main move of the day just three hours before the end of the day and with 30 pips intraday range plus on a the major news release practically guarantees the extension at least into ATR. Like shooting a fish in a barrell.
Extremely interesting. Thank you.
sans peur et sans reproche
Quoting ilanr
Extremely interesting. Thank you.
That sounds funny but in fact very unfortunate. Seems there are not too many traders able to see the most obvious in this market and I'm not even talking about more complicated settings. It's really amazing how uncommon is common sense in this business.
GBPUSD: A dawn of another #19.1?
sans peur et sans reproche
Hi Igrok,

One has to be equipped with the proper pair of glasses/spectacles in order to 'see' things clearly. I think the majority of us here are still in the squinting/denial phase

And might I add, with the plethora (did I say that?) of very useful information on this site to wade through, many find it very overwhelming - can't see the forest for the trees so to speak.

And thanks for all of the great insight! I am delving into your book as we speak!

Derek

Quoting Igrok
That sounds funny but in fact very unfortunate. Seems there are not too many traders able to see the most obvious in this market and I'm not even talking about more complicated settings. It's really amazing how uncommon is common sense in this business.
Quoting ilanr
GBPUSD: A dawn of another #19.1?
It was you who called it . Seems you're getting on the right track. I'm sure that rather sooner than later you will make sense out of all those simple set-ups I called "templates".
Quoting Igrok
It was you who called it . Seems you're getting on the right track. I'm sure that rather sooner than later you will make sense out of all those simple set-ups I called "templates".
Hopefully, with your help...

The simple ones will be Ok for sure, my problems (you call them challenges in the US) are in the jewelry department

Regarding today's GBPUSD #19.1. Did we have any hints that the price will not go beyond the minimal profit target of 30 points above the comb border? The end of day movement was easier (the price diligently completed the average daily range and stopped at the obvious support formed by yesterday's "comb"), but in the morning I was a bit frustrated not to get out of the trade at the peak.
sans peur et sans reproche
  • Post #77
  • Quote
  • Edited at 4:24pm Mar 22, 2007 4:02pm | Edited at 4:24pm
Quoting Daemien
Hi Igrok,

One has to be equipped with the proper pair of glasses/spectacles in order to 'see' things clearly. I think the majority of us here are still in the squinting/denial phase

And might I add, with the plethora (did I say that?) of very useful information on this site to wade through, many find it very overwhelming - can't see the forest for the trees so to speak.

And thanks for all of the great insight! I am delving into your book as we speak!

Derek
Thanks for your kind words Derek. Hope you will get all the points I'm trying to make in the book or on this forum. I guess, the sooner you learn, the more enjoyable this business will become for you. However a lot of info and discussions about trading here on the forum or at other places are not profit oriented. The problem is that lots of people know a lot about Forex (including lots of myths and misconceptions) but very few actually know how to make money in it. The hardest task for a beginner is to separate useful info from misconceptions. Unfortunately the "BS filter" can only be installed in well educated minds.
  • Post #78
  • Quote
  • Edited at 4:42pm Mar 22, 2007 4:10pm | Edited at 4:42pm
Quoting ilanr
Hopefully, with your help...

The simple ones will be Ok for sure, my problems (you call them challenges in the US) are in the jewelry department

Regarding today's GBPUSD #19.1. Did we have any hints that the price will not go beyond the minimal profit target of 30 points above the comb border? The end of day movement was easier (the price diligently completed the average daily range and stopped at the obvious support formed by yesterday's "comb"), but in the morning I was a bit frustrated not to get out of the trade at the peak.
Unfortunately, narrow horizontal channels like that do not provide any targets and an initial break above or below this pattern does not guarantee an extension for any certain number of pips . The pattern only states that there will be breaks on both sides eventually. This is why I usually recommend to ignore the first break.
Quoting Igrok
This is why I usually recommend to ignore the first break.
I probably misinterpreted what happened today. I thought that the 7 o'clock GMT candle was the first breakout, and the 0930 one was the second, while the 1630 move was something unreated to this tamplate.
sans peur et sans reproche
  • Post #80
  • Quote
  • Edited at 5:04pm Mar 22, 2007 4:40pm | Edited at 5:04pm
Quoting ilanr
I probably misinterpreted what happened today. I thought that the 7 o'clock GMT candle was the first breakout, and the 0930 one was the second, while the 1630 move was something unreated to this tamplate.
Practical results can come with more practice only. I would also recommend you to pay less attention to the time scale and to concentrate more on the sequences and ranges. Timing is not something carved in the stone, while the formations are usually reliable enough. The entire day today on Cable was almost the exact replication of the first half of the previous day before the news has spooked the market.
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