Forex Ideas & Comments

EURUSD: Short Term levels.
Support to watch 1.2805/10 - 1.2755 - 1.2665
Resistance: 1.2940/60 - 1.3000/35
To relieve the bearish pressure, we would need to go back above 1.2940/60 to test the more important 1.3000/35. Until then SELL rally ( ideally) with a S/L 1.2975 or 1.3055

Week End News:

 

1. Current proposed G20 growth measures would add 1.8 pct to global growth by 2018 - german g20 source
2. Germany's Schaeuble sees potential risk of bubbles in share and real estate markets - german g20 source
3. Schaeuble underlined need for structural reforms and consolidation to foster sustainable growth - german source
4. German fin min Schaeuble sees solid fiscal policy necessary to create room to act if risks materialize

Noyer says QE not on ECB agenda at the moment

1. ECB waiting for results of current stimulus steps
2. Noyer says euro zone "certainly not in deflation"
3. But inflation too low for too long is "is dangerous"

Weaker euro would be helpful to restore price stability

G20: Statements from the different authorities (Sunday 21st Sep 2014)



Canada:

1. CANADA FINMIN OLIVER SAYS EUROPE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH INSIPID GROWTH
2. BANK OF CANADA GOV POLOZ SAYS RISE IN US DOLLAR CAUSING VOLATILITY
3. BANK OF CANADA GOV POLOZ SAYS CANADIAN ECONOMY HAS ROOM TO GROW
4. BANK OF CANADA GOV POLOZ SAYS MUCH OF RECENT INFLATION CAUSED BY ONE-OFF FACTORS
5. BANK OF CANADA GOV POLOZ SAYS DOESN'T SEE HOUSING MARKET AS A BUBBLE

Europe:

1. G20-EUROPEAN COMMISSION'S KATAINEN: LOTS OF WORK TO BE DONE AT THE EUROPEAN LEVEL TO ACHIEVE 2 PCT EXTRA GROWTH GOAL
2. G20-EUROPEAN COMMISSION'S KATAINEN: WE HAVE TO CONTINUE WITH SOUND FISCAL POLICY, HAVE TO BRING DEFICIT AND DEBT LEVEL DOWN IN GROWTH-FRIENDLY WAY
3. G20-ECB'S COEURE: PERSISTENT WEAKNESS OF DEMAND HAS BEEN A KEY ISSUE
4. G20-ECB'S COEURE: ECB READY FOR ADDITIONAL SUPPORT, BUT MONETARY POLICY SUPPORT WILL HAVE VERY LIMITED EFFECT WITHOUT STRUCTURAL REFORM
5. EUROPEAN COMMISSION'S KATAINEN: EVERYBODY SEES OUR GROWTH AS TOO LOW AND WE'VE RECOGNISED THE PROBLEM, NOW ITS A QUESTION OF IMPLEMENTATION
6. G20-ECB'S COEURE: NO ONE HAS ASKED THE ECB TO DO MORE AT THIS MEETING
7. G20-ECB'S COEURE: ECB NOT SATISFIED WITH CURRENT LOW INFLATION LEVEL
8. G20-ECB'S COEURE: THE GOVERNING COUNCIL HAS SAID IT IS READY TO DO MORE BUT WAY TOO EARLY TO TELL IF MORE NEEDED NOW

1. GERMANY FINMIN SCHAEUBLE: SUSTAINABLE GROWTH NEEDS SUSTAINABLE BUDGETS, STRUCTURAL REFORMS AND INVESTMENTS
2. G20-SCHAEUBLE SAYS IT WAS WIDELY ACCEPTED THAT THE ROOM FOR ADDITIONAL MEASURES FOR STRENGTHENING DEMAND WORLDWIDE IS SMALL

USA:

1. G20-US TREASURY SECRETARY LEW:G20 HAS COME TO BROAD CONSENSUS ON TOTAL LOSS ABSORPTION CAPACITY (TLAC)
2. US TREASURY SECRETARY LEW SAYS EURO AREA STILL CONTINUES TO FACE PERSISTENT HEADWINDS
3. US TREASURY'S LEW: G20 HAS INTENSIFIED CALL TO BOOST DOMESTIC DEMAND
4. US TREASURY'S LEW: CONGRESS SHOULD PASS ANTI-INVERSION LEGISLATIONS AS SOON AS POSSIBLE
5. US TREASURY'S LEW: TREASURY WORKING ON ADMINISTRATIVE WAYS TO LIMIT ECONOMIC BENEFITS OF INVERSION
6. US TREASURY'S LEW: DISCUSSIONS THIS WEEKEND HAVE SHOWED GROWING RECOGNITION EUROPE NEEDS TO DO MORE TO GET ECONOMY TO WHERE IT SHOULD BE
7. US TREASURY'S LEW: AS LONG AS RUSSIA CONTINUES TO THREATEN UKRAINE SOVEREIGNTY THERE WILL BE UNITY TO ISOLATE RUSSIA ECONOMICALLY

Australia:

1. G20: AUSTRALIA TREASURER HOCKEY SAYS AGREED ON NEED FOR SHORT TERM FISCAL STIMULUS WHERE APPROPRIATE

Japan:

1. BOJ KURODA: JAPAN STILL HALFWAY THROUGH MEETING BOJ'S 2 PCT PRICE TARGET BUT ABOUT TO EMERGE FROM DEFLATIONARY SITUATION

China:

1. CHINA FINMIN SAYS CHINA WILL NOT DRAMATICALLY ALTER POLICY BECAUSE OF ANY ONE ECONOMIC INDICATOR
2. CHINA FINMIN SAYS CHINA CANNOT RELY ON GOVERNMENT SPENDING TO INCREASE INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT

EUR/USD TECHS-Candles reinforce bear view
1.2868 (Asia High) caps intraday for now. 1.2928 ( Friday high)
The lows from Friday at 1.2828 could come back under threat
Bearish engulfing weekly candle reinforces the short view
but watch day studies which are showing signs of a bounce
Target stays 1.2740 - look to lower the stop on a 1.2800 break

We might see some consolidation before the next move

Who s driving the returns?

AUDUSD: Back to test 0.8920/25 early in the day with better china numbers
and ending the day on the soft size making new low.

Small support @ 0.8825/30 next 0....8780 - 0.8685/95.
Resistance 0.8920/30 should hold now to renew weakness.
Sell Rally with a stop above 0.8920/30

Few interesting chart:
Sup & Res 25 Sep 2014
Rate differential Ger-US 3 years
Few levels in cable: pretty range bound.. Beter to get involved in EURGBP

GBP/USD-Within strike of 1.6305-10 option expiries

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
* USD bull trend may help prevent cable climbing too far pre-weekend
* 1.6333 (Asia high) & 1.6342 (Thurs high) among resistance levels
* Ascent to 1.6342 was fuelled by relatively hawkish Carney
* 1.6294 = subsequent pullback low. 1.6287 = early Europe low
* Support points include 1.6276 (Thurs low), 1.6267 & 1.6247
* 1.6305-10 option expiries today (closest-to-market)

EURGBP: Dip < 0.7800. potential P/T ahead of the week end.



EUR/USD TECHS-Target Bollinger base
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
* A retest of the lows from yday at 1.2696 is favored next
* Base of Bollinger at 1.2677 supports mkt but a break is not ruled out
* Beyond sees 1.2502 = 76.4% of 1.2042-1.3995 (Jul 2012/May2014)
* New trend low yday keeps the bear bias alive and well
Some E 3.12 Yards in vanilla exp today 1.2750.
Dovish ECB expectations -à Bias EUR lower.

AUD/USD: Still a struggle
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AUD still struggling overnight.
AUD New yearly low, taking barriers at 0.8750.
Sup: 0.8749 (Asia Low) 0.8659 (14 low)
Res: 0.8815 (pivot) 0.8884 (yday high)
Sell rally.

NZD/USD-0.7912 flips to resistance, RBNZ dominates

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
* NZD/USD met headwind circa 0.7912 (Thurs low) after firming from 0.7886
* 0.7886 = early Europe 12mth low. 0.7957 = Asia high
* NZD continues to suffer on the back of RBNZ view
* AUD/NZD back at 1.11 (Thurs 2wk high) vs 1.0920 2mth low earlier this week
* RBNZ Aug FX data due Monday at 03:00GMT
* NZD/USD bear targets include 0.7750 & 0.7670 (Sept 2013 low)



OPTIONS-Larger DTCC expiries for NY cut
* AUD/USD: 0.8750 (301M), 0.8900 (136M)
* USD/CAD: 1.1045-50 (281M), 1.1100 (100M), 1.1165-75 (276M)
* EUR/USD: 1.2695 (512M), 1.2750 (2.69BLN), 1.2800-05 (650M)
* GBP/USD: 1.6305-10 (300M), 1.6475-80 (460M), 1.6500 (600M)
* EUR/GBP: 0.7750 (150M), 0.7870 (240M)
* USD/JPY: 108.30 (500M), 108.50-55 (435M), 109.50 (250M)

The Week Ahead

Sunday 28 September

1615 GMT: CHICAGO - Former U.S. Federal Reserve chair Ben Bernanke speaks before the National Association for Business Economics annual meeting in Chicago
SWITZERLAND - Referendum election


Monday 29 September


GENEVA - Swiss National Bank (SNB) Chairman Thomas Jordan to give speech at Club Suisse de la Presse ROME
13:00 GMT: US: Chicago Fed President Evans (FOMC non-voter) speaks in Illinois
16:00 GMT: ROME - ECB governing council member Ignazio Visco will be present at a book launch event on "cognitive economics"

Germany: Baden-Wuerttemberg CPI, % m/m (y/y) Sep) Prev 0.0 (0.9) cons -0.1 (0.7)
Germany: Bavaria CPI, % m/m (y/y) Sep Prev 0.1 (0.8) cons-0.1 (0.6)
Germany: Hesse CPI, % m/m (y/y) Sep Prev 0.0 (0.7) cons-0.1 (0.6)
Germany: North Rhine Westphalia CPI, % m/m (y/y) Sep Prev 0.1 (1.1) cons-0.1 (1.1)
Germany: Brandenburg CPI, % m/m (y/y) Sep Prev 0.0 (0.9) cons-0.1 (0.9)
Germany: Saxony CPI, % m/m (y/y) Sep Prev 0.0 (0.8) cons-0.1 (0.8)
Germany: Preliminary HICP, % m/m (y/y) Sep Prev 0.0 (0.8) cons-0.1 (0.7)
Germany: Preliminary CPI, % m/m (y/y) Sep Prev 0.0 (0.8) cons-0.1 (0.8)
Belgium: CPI, % m/m (y/y) Sep Prev 0.0 (-0.4)
07:00 GMT: Spain: Preliminary HICP, % y/y Sep Prev -0.5 cons -0.3
07:30 GMT: Sweden: Retail Sales, % m/m (y/y) Aug Prev -0.7 (2.3) cons 0.6 (3.4)
09:00 GMT: E18: Industrial confidence, index Sep prev -5.3 cons-5.8
09:00 GMT: E18: 'Final' consumer confidence, index Sep prev -11.4 P cons -11.4
12:30 GMT: US: Personal income, % m/m Aug prev 0.2 cons 0.3
12:30 GMT: US: Personal spending, % m/m Aug prev -0.1 cons 0.4
12:30 GMT: US: PCE price index, % m/m (y/y) Aug prev 0.1 (1.6) cons -0.1 (1.4)
12:30 GMT: US: Core PCE price index, % m/m (y/y) Aug prev 0.1 (1.5) cons0.0 (1.4)
14:00 GMT: US: Pending home sales, % m/m Aug prev 3.3 cons-0.5
21:45 GMT: New Zealand: Building consents, % m/m Aug prev 0.1 cons 0.0
23:05 GMT: UK: GfK consumer confidence, index Sep prev 1 cons 0
23:30 GMT: Japan: Unemployment rate, % Aug prev 3.8 cons 3.8
23:30 GMT: Japan: Jobs/applicants ratio Aug prev 1.10 cons 1.10
23:30 GMT: Japan: Real household spending, % y/y Aug prev -5.9 cons -3.6
23:50 GMT: Japan: Industrial production, % m/m Aug prev 0.4 cons 0.2


Tuesday 30 September

LONDON - Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member David Miles speaks at London School of Economics and Political Science
OSLO - Norges Bank Governor Oystein Olsen gives a speech at a seminar arranged by the Centre for Monetary Economics (CME) at Nordea in Oslo
Romania: Interest rate announcement, % Sep prev 3.25 cons 3.00
05:30 GMT: India: RBI reverse repo rate, % Sep prev 7.00 prev 7.00
05:30 GMT: India: RBI repo rate, % Sep prev 8.00 – cons 8.00
07:00 GMT: E18: ECB Executive Board member Lautenschläger speaks on bank regulation in Austria
14:45 GMT: US: Fed Governor Powell (FOMC voter) speaks in Washington



00:00 GMT: New Zealand: Business confidence, index Sep prev 24.4
01:30 GMT: Australia: RBA private-sector credit, % m/m Aug prev 0.4 cons 0.5
01:30 GMT: Japan: Wages per worker, % y/y Aug prev 2.4 cons 1.0
01:45 GMT: China: Final HSBC manufacturing PMI, index Sep prev 50.5P cons 50.5
06:00 GMT: Germany: Retail sales sa, % m/m (y/y) Aug prev-1.1 (1.0) cons 0.5 (0.3)
06:00 GMT: UK: Nationwide house price Index, % m/m (y/y) Sep prev 0.8 (11.0) cons 0.5 (10.4)
06:45 GMT: France: Hhsld consum. goods, % m/m (y/y) Jul/Aug prev 0.9 (1.8) cons -0.1 (1.3
07:00 GMT: Swi: KoF leading indicator Sep prev 99.5 cons 99.0
07:55 GMT: Germany: Unemployment change (000s, sa); (rate, %) Sep prev 2 (6.7) cons -2 (6.7)
08:00 GMT: Italy: Unemployment rate, % Aug prev 12.6 cons 12.5
08:30 GMT: UK: GDP final release, % q/q (y/y) Q2 prev 0.8 (3.2) cons 0.8 (3.2)
08:30 GMT: UK: Current account, £bn Q2 prev -18.5 cons -16.8
09:00 GMT: E18: Unemployment rate, % Aug prev 11.5 cons 11.5
09:00 GMT: Italy: Preliminary HICP, % m/m (y/y) Sep prev -0.2 (-0.2) cons 1.9 (-0.1)
09:00 GMT: Italy: Preliminary CPI, % m/m (y/y) Sep prev 0.2 (-0.1) cons -0.2 (0.0)
09:00 GMT: E18: "Flash" HICP, % y/y Sep prev 0.4 cons 0.3
09:00 GMT: E18: 'Eurostat' core (HICP x fd, alc, tob, ene), % (y/y) Sep prev 0.9 cons 0.9
12:30 GMT: Canada: GDP, % m/m (y/y) Jul prev 0.3 (3.1) cons 0.2
12:30 GMT: Canada: Industrial product price, % m/m Aug prev -0.3 cons -0.2
13:45 GMT: US: Chicago PMI index Sep prev 64.3 cons 61.5
14:00 GMT: US: Consumer confidence index Sep prev 92.4 cons 92.4
23:00 GMT: Korea: CPI, % y/y Sep prev 1.4 cons 1.5
23:30 GMT: Australia: AIG/PWC manufacturing PMI, index Sep prev 47.3 cons
23:50 GMT: Japan: Tankan DI for mftg/non-mftg, index Q3 prev 12/19 cons 10/17


Wednesday 01 October

Italy: Deadline for Government to present new GDP, deficit and debt forecasts to cabinet
12:15 GMT: Germany: Chancellor Merkel speaks at the annual conference of the BGA association of exporters and wholesellers in Berlin


00:00 GMT: Australia: RP Data-Rismark house price, % m/m Sep prev 1.1 cons
00:00 GMT: Korea: Exports, % y/y Sep prev -0.1 cons 6.5
01:00 GMT: China: NBS manufacturing PMI, index Sep prev 51.1 cons 51.0
01:30 GMT: Australia: Retail sales, % m/m Aug prev 0.4 cons 0.4
05:00 GMT: Japan: Auto sales, % y/y Sep prev-5.0 cons
06:30 GMT: Australia: Commodity price index, % y/y Sep prev -11.5 cons
06:30 GMT: Sweden: Manufacturing PMI, index Sep prev 51.0 cons 51.8
07:13 GMT: Spain: Manufacturing PMI, index Sep prev 52.8 cons52.8
07:30 GMT: Swi: Manufacturing PMI, index Sep prev 52.9 cons52.0
07:43 GMT: Italy: Manufacturing PMI, index Sep prev 49.8 cons49.6
07:48 GMT: France: Final manufacturing PMI, index Sep prev 48.8P cons48.8
07:53 GMT: Germany: Final manufacturing PMI, index Sep prev 50.3P cons50.3
07:58 GMT: E18: Final manufacturing PMI, index Sep prev 50.5P cons50.5
08:28 GMT: UK: Manufacturing PMI, index Sep prev 52.5 cons 52.6
12:15 US: ADP private payrolls, chg, k Sep prev 204 cons 204
13:30 GMT: Singapore: PMI, index Sep prev 49.7 cons
13:45 GMT: US: Final Markit PMI, index Sep prev 57.9 cons
14:00 GMT: US: ISM manufacturing index Sep prev 59.0 cons 58.5
14:00 GMT: US: Construction spending, % m/m Aug prev 1.8 cons 0.4

Thursday 02 October

05:15 GMT: Australia: RBA Annual report
08:30 GMT:. LONDON - Bank of England Financial Policy Committee quarterly policy statement
11:45 GMT: E18: ECB Interest rate announcement, % Oct prev 0.05 cons
12:30 GMT: E18: ECB Press conference
17:00 GMT: US: Atlanta Fed President Lockhart (FOMC non-voter) speaks in Georgia
22:30 GMT: TUPELO, United States - Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard participates in event: "A Conversation with St. Louis Fed President James Bullard" on the U.S. economy and monetary policy in Tupelo
RICHMOND – Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond and the Kiel Institute for the World Economy hold two-day conference on "The Labor Market After the Great Recession" (to Oct. 3).
ALESUND, Norway - Norges Bank Governor Oystein Olsen and Norges Bank Investment Management Deputy Chief Executive Officer Trond Grande address Norges Bank's regional network.


01:00 GMT: Australia: HIA new home sales, % m/m Aug prev -5.7
01:00 GMT: New Zealand: Commodity prices, % m/m Sep prev -3.3
01:30 GMT: Australia: Trade balance, AUD mn Aug prev -1359 cons -850
01:30 GMT: Australia: Building approvals, % m/m Aug prev 2.5 cons 1.0
08:30 GMT: UK: Construction PMI Sep prev 64.0 cons 63.5
09:00 GMT: E18: PPI, % m/m (y/y) Aug prev -0.1 (-1.1) cons -0.1 (-1.2)
12:30 GMT: US: Initial jobless claims, k (4wma) 27-Sep prev 293 (299) cons 300
14:00 GMT: US: Factory orders, %m/m Aug prev 10.5 cons -9.0
23:30 GMT: Australia: AIG/CBA services PSI, index Sep prev 49.4

Friday 3 October

KRISTIANSAND, Norway - Norges Bank Deputy Governor Jon Nicolaisen and Norges Bank Investment Management Chief Risk Officer Jan Thomsen address Norges Bank's regional network in Kristiansand.
10:00 GMT: Germany: Chancellor Merkel speaks at Day of German Unity; Hanover Congress Centrum

01:00 GMT: China: NBS non-manufacturing PMI, index Sep prev 54.4 cons
04:58 GMT: Ireland: Services PMI, index Sep prev 62.5 cons 61.7
06:30 GMT: Sweden: Services PMI, index Sep prev 54.2 cons
07:00 GMT: Turkey: CPI, % y/y Sep prev 9.5 cons 9.5
07:13 Spain: Services PMI, index Sep prev 58.1 cons 57.3
07:30 GMT: Sweden: Service production, % m/m (y/y) Aug prev -0.7 (2.0)
07:43 GMT: Italy: Services PMI, index Sep prev 49.8 cons 49.3
07:48 GMT: France: Final services PMI, index Sep prev 49.4P cons 49.4
07:53 GMT: Germany: Final services PMI, index Sep prev 55.4P cons 55.4
07:58 GMT: E18: Final services PMI, index Sep prev 52.8P cons 52.8
07:58 GMT: E18: Final composite PMI, index Sep prev 52.3P cons 52.3
08:00 GMT: Norway: Registered unemployment rate, % Sep prev 2.9 cons 2.7
08:28 GMT: UK: Services PMI Sep prev 60.5 cons 59.0
09:00 GMT: E18: Retail sales, % m/m (y/y) Aug prev -0.4 (0.8) cons 0.1 (0.7)
12:30 GMT: Canada: Int'l merchandise trade, $ bn Aug prev 2.6 cons 1.5
12:30 GMT: US: Trade balance, $ bn Aug prev -40.5 cons -40.7
12:30 GMT: US: Non-farm payrolls, chg, k Sep prev 142 cons 210
12:30 GMT: US: Private non-farm payrolls, chg, k Sep prev 134 cons 198
12:30 GMT: US: Unemployment rate, % Sep prev 6.1 cons 6.1
12:30 GMT: US: Average hourly earnings, % m/m (y/y) Sep prev 0.2 (2.1) cons 0.2 (2.2)
12:30 GMT: US: Average weekly hours Sep prev 34.5 cons 34.5
14:00 GMT: US: ISM non-manufacturing index Sep prev 59.6 cons 58.5

October Seasonal

NZD/G10: This an index I created. NZD against the other G10 pairs. It s equally weighted.
Just heading on the trend line support. Perhaps time for NZD to consolidate.

Orders:
EUR/USD bids 1.2620, 1.26, 1.2580
Offers 1.27, 1.2715-20, 1.2740-50, 1.2635 350m exp, 1.2650 400m, 1.27 2.0b
USD/JPY bids 108.50, offers 108.90-00, 109.25-30, 109.40-50
USD/CHF bids 0.9525, 0.9510, 0.9500, offers 0.9580-90, 0.9600
EUR/JPY bids 137.15, 137.00-05, stops, offers 138.20, 138.40-50
AUD/USD bids 0.8720-30, offers 0.8820-30
USD/CAD bids 1.1070-75, 1.1040-50, offers 1.1115-20, 1.1140-50


OPTIONS-Larger DTCC expiries for NY cut
EUR/USD: 1.2635 (352M), 1.2650 (402M), 1.2700 (2BLN)
1.2720-25 (440M), 1.2800-05 (530M)
GBP/USD: 1.6100 (1.64BLN), 1.6200 (308M), 1.6240 (270M),
1.6265-70 (319M), 1.6285 (181M)
EUR/GBP: 0.7730-35 (300M), 0.7820 (300M), 0.7840-50 (445M)
USD/JPY: 108.00 (1.1bln), 108.40 (450m), 109.00 (501M), 109.20 (720M)
USD/CAD: 1.1070 (322M), 1.1150 (150M)

Correlation table for the week

EURUSD continues to correct higher, but we still look for resistance at 1.2996/3001 to turn the trend lower again.
GBPUSD above 1.6128 would allow a test of 1.6228 and through it is needed for a base.
USDJPY ideally stays capped below key resistance at 107.50/58.
NZDUSD spotlight stays on the downtrend and price resistance at .7987/99.
AUDUSD remains in a broad sideways range.
EURJPY immediate risk stays marginally lower while capped below 136.58/59.
USDCAD ideally holds above 1.1161/59 to keep its immediate uptrend.


Today: ECB's Coeure:

• Start to purchase assets within days
• Expects stronger take-up at Dec TLTRO. Sept take-up disappointed
• Sees positive euro zone growth in Q3, Q4
• EUR value not a monetary policy objective
• Governing council will take additional measures if needed

Today: ECB’s Nowotny

• Ecb's Nowotny Says Differnt Dynamic In Us, Europe To Have Impact On Exchange Rates
• Ecb's Nowotny Says Weaker Euro Tends To Boost Euro Zone Economy, Help Raise Inflation
• Ecb's Nowotny Says Countries Can Get More Time To Meet Deficit Targets Should They Adopt Structural Reforms
• Ecb's Nowotny Says Interest Rates Cannot Go Much Lower
• Ecb's Nowotny Says Austrian Banks Should Do Well In Stress Tests, One Bank Has Taken Precautionary Measures
• Ecb's Nowotny Says Uncertainty Expected To Be Reduced In November With New Banking Supervision, More Potential For Lending
• Ecb's Nowotny Says Situation With Banks Massively Better Than During Financial Crisis
• Ecb's Nowotny Says Nonsense To Speak Of Ecb As Bad Bank Amid Discussion Of Abs Purchase Programme


EUR/GBP-Dovish Haldane supports, 0.7985 resistance
BoE chief economist's dovish steer lends support to cross
Haldane unlikely to join Weale & McCafferty in voting for hike anytime soon
Minutes from October's MPC meeting will be published next week (Oct 22)
Dovish shift in UK rate expectations after Tuesday's CPI downside surprise
EUR/GBP offers touted at 0.7985 (rally high from Thurs 0.7948 low) & 0.80

ORDERS-
EUR/USD bids, 1.2780 and 1.2740-50
EUR/USD offers 1.2850, 1.2880-90, Opt Exp Incl a yard of 1.2740-50s
USD/JPY bids 105.80, 105.50-60, offers 106.50, 106.90-00
USD/CHF 0.9400, 0.9385-90, offers 0.9475-80
EUR/JPY bids 135.50-60, 135.40, 135.20, 135.00-10, offers 136.40-50
AUD/USD bids 0.8730, 0.8700-05, offers 0.8800, 0.8825-30, 0.8840-50

The week Ahead 18-26 October 2014 ( data, Speeches, Political Events)

Saturday 18 October 2014


12:30 GMT BOSTON - Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Eric Rosengren speaks before the "Inequality of Economic Opportunity in the United States" conference in Boston

23:30 GMT ADELAIDE - RBA Assistant Governor Christopher Kent speaks at the Leading Age Services Australia (LASA) National Congress 2014 in Adelaide


Sunday 19 October 2014


22:00 GMT Germany: Chancellor Merkel visits Slovakia

21:30 GMT New Zealand: PSI, index Sep Prev 57.9


Monday 20 October 2014


07:30 GMT LONDON - European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso speaks at the Chatham House event on "Ten Years at the Helm of the European Commission: Some Reflections on Europe"

10:45 GMT LONDON - Bank of England Deputy Governor Jon Cunliffe and ECB Vice-President Vitor Constancio discuss bank regulation.

***13:15 GMT BERLIN - Germany's finance and economy ministers Wolfgang Schaeuble and Sigmar Gabriel hold a joint news conference with their French counterparts Michel Sapin and Emmanuel Macron***
TOKYO - Bank of Japan holds quarterly meeting of its regional branch managers. Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda will deliver a short speech at the outset of the meeting, which will also produce a quarterly report on regional sectors of the economy.

LUXEMBOURG - Meeting of the Foreign Affairs Council (FAC).


06:00 GMT Germany: PPI, % m/m (y/y) Sep Prev -0.1 (-0.8) Cons -0.0 (-1.0)
07:30 GMT Netherlands: Consumer confidence index Oct Prev -7.0
08:00 GMT Italy: Industrial orders, % m/m (y/y) Aug Prev -1.5 (-0.7) Cons 0.2
09:00 GMT E18: ECB current account sa, € bn Aug Prev 18.7
13:00 GMT Belgium: Consumer confidence index Oct Prev -11.0
21:45 GMT New Zealand: Net migration Sep Prev 4710


Tuesday 21 October 2014

00:30 GMT Australia: RBA board minutes Oct

08:55Australia: RBA Deputy Governor Lowe speaks in Sydney

GENEVA - Swiss National Bank (SNB) Governing Board Member Fritz Zurbruegg speaks at the ICMB Public Conference on "Long-time low interest rates - too much of a good thing?".


00:30 GMT Australia: Imports of goods, % m/m Sep
02:00 GMT China: Fixed asset investments, YTD % y/y Sep Prev 16.5 Cons 16.3
02:00 GMT China: Retail sales, % y/y Sep Cons 11.9 Cons 11.7
02:00 GMT China: Industrial production, % y/y Sep Prev 6.9 Cons 7.50
02:00 GMT China: GDP, % y/y Q3 Prev 7.5 Cons 7.2
02:00 GMT New Zealand: Credit card spending, % m/m Sep 0.7
04:30 GMT Japan: Index of all-industry activity, % m/m Aug Prev -0.2 Cons -0.4
06:00 GMT Swi: Trade balance, € bn Sep Prev 1.3 Cons 2.3
08:30 GMT UK: PSNBx, £bn Sep Prev 11.6 Cons 10.2
08:30 GMT UK: PSNCR, £bn Sep Prev 1.6
08:30 GMT UK: PSNB, £bn Sep Prev 10.9 Cons 9.5
14:00 GMT US: Existing home sales, mn saar Sep Prev 5.05 Cons 5.10
23:30 GMT Australia: Leading index, % m/m Sep Prev -0.1
23:50 GMT Japan: Trade balance, SA, JPY bn Sep Prev -924.2 Cons -911.4


Wednesday 22 October 2014


13:00 GMT CAPE TOWN - South African Finance Minister Nhlanhla Nene presents his first medium term budget policy statement to parliament, with the Treasury's latest budget deficit and economic growth projections for the next three years -.

19:30 GMT WASHINGTON - Federal Reserve Board holds open meeting to discuss a final rulemaking requiring sponsors of securitization transactions to retain risk in those transactions

21:00 GMT SYDNEY - RBA Governor Glenn Stevens speaks at the Annual General Meeting of the Australian Payments and Clearing Association

ATHENS - Austrian President Heinz Fischer will visit Greece (to Oct 23). Fischer is scheduled to meet his Greek counterpart Karolos Papoulias, with whom they will discuss, among other issues, the crisis in Greece and developments in Europe and the rest of the world. Fischer will also meet Greek Prime Minister Antonis Samaras, Foreign Minister Evangelos Venizelos and the leader of the main opposition Radical Left Coalition (SYRIZA) party Alexis Tsipras.


08:30 GMT UK: MPC minutes, Bank Rate vote Oct Prev 7-2
08:30 GMT UK: MPC minutes, asset purchase vote Oct Prev 9-0
14:00 GMT Canada: Interest rate announcement, % Oct Prev 1.00


00:30 GMT Australia: Headline CPI, % q/q Q3 Prev 0.5 Cons 0.4
00:30 GMT Australia: Seasonally adjusted CPI, % q/q Q3 Prev 0.6 Cons 0.2
00:30 GMT Australia: RBA trimmed mean, % q/q Q3 Prev 0.8 Cons 0.5
00:30 GMT Australia: RBA weighted median, % q/q Q3 Prev 0.6 Cons 0.5
00:30 GMT Australia: CPI ex-volatile items, % q/q Q3 Prev 0.8 Cons 0.2
08:00 GMT South Africa: CPI, % y/y Sep Prev 6.4 Cons 6.2
12:30 GMT US: CPI, % m/m (y/y) Sep Prev -0.2 (1.7) Cons 0.0 (1.6)
12:30 GMT US: Core CPI, % m/m (y/y) Sep Prev 0.0 (1.7) Cons 0.2 (1.8)
12:30 GMT US: CPI, NSA index Sep Prev 237.852 Cons 238.120
12:30 GMT Canada: Retail sales, % m/m Aug -0.1
12:30 GMT Canada: Retail sales ex autos, % m/m Aug Prev -0.6
21:45 GMT New Zealand: CPI, % q/q Q3 Prev 0.3 Cons 0.5


Thursday 23 October 2014


BRUSSELS - European Council meeting (to Oct 24)

08:05 GMT LONDON - Bank of England Deputy Governor Ben Broadbent gives speech on monetary policy outlook to Society of Business Economists

MADRID - Bank of Spain Governor Luis Linde will deliver a lecture at the Foro La Voz de Galicia.

08:00 GMT Philippines: BSP policy rate, % Oct Prev 4.0 Cons 4.0
08:00 GMT Norway: Interest rate announcement Oct Prev 1.50 Cons 1.50
11:00 GMT Turkey: Benchmark repo rate, % Oct Prev 8.25 Cons 8.25
11:00 GMT Turkey: Overnight lending rate, % Oct Prev 11.25 Cons 11.25
11:00 GMT Turkey: Overnight borrowing rate, % Oct Prev 7.50 Cons 7.50
00:30 GMT Australia: NAB business confidence, index Q3 Prev 6 Cons 7
01:45 GMT China: Flash HSBC manufacturing PMI, index Oct Prev 50.2 Cons 50.2
05:00 GMT Singapore: CPI, % y/y Sep Prev 0.9 Cons 1.0
05:00 GMT Singapore: Core CPI, % y/y Sep Prev 2.1 Cons 2.1
06:45 GMT France: Business climate, index Oct Prev 91 Cons 91
06:58 GMT France: "Flash" manufacturing PMI, index Oct Prev 48.8 Cons 48.5
06:58 GMT France: "Flash" services PMI; index Oct Prev 48.4 Cons 48.2
07:28 GMT Germany: "Flash" manufacturing PMI, index Oct Prev 49.9 Cons 49.50
07:28 GMT Germany: "Flash" services PMI; index Oct Prev 55.7 Cons 55.0
07:30 GMT Sweden: Unemployment rate (sa), % Sep Prev 7.4 (8.0) Cons 7.5 (7.9)
07:58 GMT E18: "Flash" manufacturing PMI, index Oct Prev 50.3 Cons 49.9
07:58 GMT E18: "Flash" services PMI; index Oct Prev 52.4 Cons 52.0
07:58 GMT E18: "Flash" composite PMI; index Oct Prev 52.0 Cons 51.5
08:00 GMT Taiwan: Industrial production, % y/y Sep Prev 7.0 Cons 6.7
08:30 GMT UK: Retail sales, % m/m (y/y) Sep Prev 0.4 (3.9) Cons -0.2 (2.8)
08:30 GMT UK: Retail sales exl. fuel, % m/m (y/y) Sep Prev 0.2 (4.5) Cons 0.2 (3.6)
10:00 GMT UK: CBI industrial trends, total orders Oct Prev -4 Cons -2
12:30 GMT US: Initial jobless claims, k (4wma) 18-Oct Prev 264 (284) Cons 270
13:00 GMT US: FHFA purchase-only HPI, % m/m (y/y) Aug Prev 0.1 (4.5) Cons 0.4
13:00 GMT Mexico: First half bi-weekly CPI, % 2w/2w Oct Prev 0.32 Cons 0.49
13:45 GMT US: "Flash" Markit PMI, index Oct Prev 57.5 Cons 57.3
14:00 GMT US: Leading indicators index, % m/m Sep Prev 0.2 Cons 0.7
14:00 GMT E18: 'Flash' Consumer confidence; index Oct Prev -11.4 Cons -12.0
21:45 GMT New Zealand: Trade balance, NZD mn Sep Prev -472 Cons -625
21:45 GMT New Zealand: Exports, NZD bn Sep Prev 3.5 Cons 3.5
21:45 GMT New Zealand: Imports, NZD bn Sep Prev 4.0 Cons 4.2
23:00 GMT Korea: Preliminary GDP, % y/y Q3 Prev 3.5 Cons 3.3
23:00 GMT Korea: Preliminary GDP, % q/q sa Q3 Prev 0.5 Cons 0.9


Friday 24 October 2014


08:20 GMT E18: ECB Executive Board member Praet speaks at International Banking Conference in Milan


06:00 GMT Germany: GfK Consumer confidence, index Nov Prev 8.3 Cons 8.0
08:00 GMT Italy: Retail sales sa, % m/m (y/y) Aug Prev -0.1 (-1.5)
08:30 GMT UK: GDP preliminary release, % q/q (y/y) Q 3 Prev 0.9 (3.2) Cons 0.7 (3.0)
10:00 GMT Italy: Consumer confidence, index Oct Prev 102.0 Cons 101.3
13:00 GMT Mexico: Economic activity index, % y/y Aug Prev 2.5 Cons 2.0
13:00 GMT Belgium: Business confidence index Oct Prev -7.2 Cons -7.8
14:00 GMT US: New home sales, k saar Sep Prev 504 Cons 470
16:00 GMT France: Jobseekers net change (sa), k Sep 9.426.1 Prev -11.1 Cons 0.7


Sunday 26 October 2014


E28: The EBA announces 2014 EU-wide stress test publication date


23:50 GMT Japan: Corporate services price index, % y/y Sep Prev 3.5

Europe publishes bank health-check results - RTRS

DUBLIN, Oct 26 (Reuters) - Twenty five euro zone banks failed a landmark health check of their ability to withstand another economic crisis with a capital shortfall of 25 billion euros at the end of last year, the European Central Bank (ECB) said on Sunday.

A dozen of those banks have already addressed the gap by raising 15 billion euros over the course of this year.
Here are reactions from regulators, investors and analysts to the results.

PHOEBUS THEOLOGITES, CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICER, STEPPENWOLF CAPITAL:
"This is the most honest assessment to-date of the dismal state of euro zone banks since the global financial crisis and, if anything, I commend the ECB for adopting such a stance."
"The ECB’s assessment should serve to sober up and alert people to the fact that nothing is fixed in the euro zone. In turn, this implies that the short-term ‘band aid’ of balance-sheet expansion by the ECB will acquire a newly-reinforced momentum on the back of the clear divergence between the euro zone and the U.S. banks."
"Now that the numbers are official, I would expect the Euro STOXX 50 Banking Index .SX7E and the Euro STOXX 50 Index .STOXX50E to open very weak for a while tomorrow, because the magnitude and percentage of failures is substantially above what some had expected."

JOE URCIUOLI, HEAD OF CREDIT RESEARCH, SPECTRUM ASSET MANAGEMENT:
"These results are not surprising. These results prove that the regulator got it right this time. We didn’t expect any big surprises – we don’t see any here. It seems to be the usual suspects that need to raise capital."
"We believe this will support market confidence. The value added here is that we think going forward, we expect the ECB as the sole regulator to test the banks using qualitative factors as well… to better give a complete picture of a bank’s risk."
"Any of those banks that have a capital shortfall with the exclusion of Lloyds… we’re not going to be invested in and we aren’t invested in. The biggest reason would be that we’re not going to take that kind of risk."
"Ireland especially is doing much better today that it was five years ago. It’s the first of the five peripheral countries that is doing better after a bailout programme, but that doesn’t mean we would invest in their banks. It’s just too soon. We have to stay with the core countries – Germany, France, the UK, the Netherlands."
"This is a step in the right direction, but this is sort of like a baby step. We need to see a couple of years of good test results for those countries and those banks before we even think about it."
"(Annual tests would) maintain credibility in the banking sector it will keep people like us more confident about the sector and more apt to invest more and more in the names we invest in and maybe different names as well."
"On the face of it I think it will be a neutral to positive event (in financial markets) but because there might be some headlines and people might get nervous if they see Italian bank headlines and Greek headlines so the market might react like it didn’t know it was coming."
"There might be some short term volatility on Monday, maybe Tuesday, but I don’t think it will be long term in nature. When you see all the sell side research that comes out today and tomorrow they are all going to point to positive results, except for the names that need to raise capital and again, those names don’t comprise the major banks."

KEVIN CORRIGAN, HEAD OF CREDIT, LOMBARD ODIER INVESTMENT MANAGERS:
“This was always a difficult exercise for investors to try and pre-judge, because the number of data points that the testers would be applying were so comprehensive that it was difficult to predict.
“It doesn’t appear to be out of line, generally, with what people were expecting, although there were more Italian banks there than we would have thought.
“Overall, I don’t think people will be swayed one way or the other, from a debt market point of view. From a bond investors’ point of view, it doesn’t look as though we’ve managed to ensnare any of the large-cap banks in this round."
“This should give investors some confidence that the landscape isn’t uninvestable, from a direct investment point of view, but just having sufficient capital isn’t going to cure the European economy of its ills. That’s what remains to be seen; to what extent this facilitates greater lending to small and medium-sized enterprises."
“From a debt market point of view, I don’t expect too much volatility tomorrow. I think there was a slight surprise that the number of Italian banks was slightly larger than maybe we might have thought."
"But there weren’t the larger cap banks that would have spooked the market."

MARIANO RAJOY, PRIME MINISTER, SPAIN:
“The Spanish financial system is great, which is vital to support the Spanish economic recovery. It’s been very difficult, and very complicated but today the European Central Bank, after studying all the banks in the euro zone, has said that the Spanish financial system is there and, for that, we can feel very proud and satisfied.”

RICHARD EDWARDS, MANAGING DIRECTOR, HED CAPITAL:
The fact that a lot of Italian banks have failed could put the Italian government bond market under renewed pressure on Monday morning."

ION-MARC VALAHU, FUND MANAGER, CLAIRINVEST:
"Overall, it’s a positive, even though most of it was leaked on Friday. This brings us closer to a banking union in the EU, as well as helping the credibility of the ECB and the banking sector. This will help EU banks raise more capital going forward. If you add to that the change in language from Merkel this weekend on the need to invest in Europe and move away from austerity, markets should at least rebound on Monday and recoup ground lost on Friday."

ANDREA LEADSOM, ECONOMIC SECRETARY TO THE UK TREASURY:
"A key part of our long term economic plan is to strengthen UK banks so that they can support the economy, help businesses, and serve customers.
"I’m pleased to see that the UK banks have passed the EBA stress tests. This shows our robust reforms to build a more resilient banking sector are working."

BANK OF SPAIN:
“This result confirms that the process of cleaning up, reforming and restructuring in the system over the last few years has produced positive results and that the Spanish lenders face the future with healthy balance sheets and an adequate solvency position.”

COLIN BRERETON, ECONOMIC CRISIS RESPONSE LEAD PARTNER, PwC:
“The Comprehensive Assessment results are in, and although this should restore some confidence and stability to the market, we are still far from a solution to the banking crisis and the challenges facing the banking sector."
"The Comprehensive Assessment was only a one-off test of solvency, not of ongoing viability. The test of long-term viability is whether banks can generate sufficient returns to cover all their costs, including capital costs."
“The point where many of Europe’s banks will be able to satisfy this long-term viability test is still a way off due to the prospect of continued weak economic conditions and low interest rates across Europe, an overhang of operating, compliance and restructuring costs, and mounting competitive threats from start-ups and non-bank challengers. The Comprehensive Assessment has bought time for some of Europe’s banks to get themselves in shape."

MAX ANDERL, HEAD OF CONCENTRATED ALPHA, UBS GLOBAL ASSET MANAGEMENT:
"There is a lot of information that needs to be looked at in detail, both in terms of the asset quality review as well as the stress test. But the first impression is that there are few surprises."
"We expected a tough and therefore more credible test. Consequently, not all of the 130 institutions were expected to do well. As expected 25 institutions failed. Indeed, the document refers to many of the ‘usual suspects’ mainly in Greece, Portugal and Italy in the quoted sector.”

ERIK NIELSEN, CHIEF ECONOMIST, UNICREDIT:
“There are way too many policy makers who think that the publication of the AQR and stress tests will itself lead to a boost in bank lending to the private sector which will somehow trigger the recovery. But that’s extremely unlikely.”
“By far the greatest share of the ‘lending problem’ is a demand problem. In the euro zone, lending to the corporate sector has always lagged GDP by 6-9 months, and I see no reason why this should be materially different this time. Thinking that lending somehow can lead GDP is an illusion, and I don’t know how that has somehow crept into the policy debate."
"Businesses need to believe in an increase in the demand for their products before asking for credits, and now that external demand growth is no longer there, this is when the euro zone needs demand stimulus. Economics 101.”

Monday 03 November


08:00 GMT MAINZ, Germany - Bundesbank board member Andreas Dombret will speak at a conference in Mainz
12:00 GMT E18: ECB Vice-President Constâncio speaks at CEMFI in Madrid
14:00 GMT E18: ECB SSM Chair Nouy speaks at European Parliament in Brussels
14:30 GMT US: Chicago Fed President Evans (FOMC non-voter) speaks in Illinois
17:35 GMT TORONTO - Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz speaks to the Canadian Council for Public-Private Partnerships
17:40 GMT US: Dallas Fed President Fisher (FOMC voter) speaks in New York


00:30 GMT Australia: Building approvals, % m/m Sep Prev 3.0 Cons -1.0
00:30 GMT Australia: Job advertisements, % m/m Oct Prev Prev 0.9
01:00 GMT China: NBS non-manufacturing PMI, index Oct Prev 54.0
01:45 GMT China: Final HSBC manufacturing PMI, index Oct Prev 50.4P Cons 50.4
07:30 GMT Sweden: Manufacturing PMI, index Oct Prev 53.4- Cons 52.5
08:00 GMT UK: Halifax house price index, % m/m (3m/y) Oct Prev 0.6 (9.6) Cons (9.1)
08:13 GMT Spain: Manufacturing PMI, index Oct Prev 52.6 Cons 52.30
08:30 GMT Swi: Manufacturing PMI, index Oct Prev 50.4 Cons 51.20
08:43 GMT Italy: Manufacturing PMI, index Oct Prev 50.7 Cons 50.7
08:48 GMT France: "Final" manufacturing PMI, index Oct Prev 47.3P Cons 47.3
08:53 GMT Germany: "Final" manufacturing PMI, index Oct Prev 51.8P Cons 51.8
08:58 GMT E18: "Final" manufacturing PMI, index Oct Prev 50.7P Cons 50.70
09:28 GMT UK: Manufacturing PMI, index Oct Prev 51.6 Cons 51.5
14:45 GMT US: Markit PMI-f, index Oct Prev 56.2- Cons 56.0
15:00 GMT US: ISM manufacturing index Oct Prev 56.6 Cons 56.5
15:00 GMT US: Construction spending, % m/m Sep Prev -0.8 Cons 0.7


Tuesday 04 November


07:00 GMT NICOSIA - ECB Executive Board member Benoit Coeure speaks on 'Current Developments in Euro Area' and European Stability Mechanism Managing Director Klaus Regling on 'Thinking beyond the Crisis' at one-day conference in Cyprus organized by the Economist
16:00 GMT BOCHUM, Germany - Bundesbank board member Andreas Dombret speaks in Bochum about European banking supervision



00:30 GMT Australia: Trade balance, AUD mn Sep Prev -787 Cons -1775
00:30 GMT Australia: Retail sales, % m/m Sep Prev 0.1 Cons 0.3
00:30Australia: Real Retail sales, % q/q Sep Prev -0.2 Cons 0.5
05:00 GMT Japan: Auto sales, % y/y Oct Prev -2.8
09:30 GMT UK: Construction PMI, index Oct Prev 64.2 Cons 63.4
10:00 GMT E18: PPI, % m/m (y/y) Sep Prev -0.1 (-1.4) Cons 0.0 (-1.5)
13:30 GMT US: Trade balance, $ bn Sep Prev -40.1 Cons -40.0
13:30 GMT Canada: Int'l merchandise trade, $ bn Sep Prev -0.6- Cons -0.7
21:45 GMT New Zealand: Unemployment rate, %Q Prev 5.6- Cons 5.5
21:45 GMT New Zealand: Employment change, % q/qQ3 Prev 0.4- Cons 0.6
21:45 GMT New Zealand: Participation rate, %Q3 Prev 68.9- Cons 69.0
21:45 GMT New Zealand: Private sector wages excl. overtime, % q/qQ3 Prev 0.6- Cons 0.5
21:45 GMT New Zealand: Private sector wages incl. overtime, % q/qQ3 Prev 0.6- Cons 0.5
21:45 GMT New Zealand: Hourly earnings (% q/q) Q3 Prev 0.5- Cons 1.1
22:30 GMT Australia: AIG/CBA services PSI, index Oct Prev 45.4


Wednesday 05 November


Poland: Repo rate, % Nov Prev 2.00 Cons 1.75
02:30 GMT TOKYO - Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda speaks at an event hosted by Kyodo news agency
07:30 GMT Thailand: Benchmark interest rate, %Nov Prev 2.00 Cons 2.00
14:15 GMT US: Minneapolis Fed President Kocherlakota (FOMC voter) speaks in Minnesota
14:30 GMT US: Richmond Fed President Lacker (FOMC non-voter) speaks in Washington
15:00 GMT US: Boston Fed President Rosengren (FOMC non-voter) speaks in Lima, Peru
23:50 GMT TOKYO - Bank of Japan will release the minutes of its October policy-setting meeting

01:30 GMT Japan: Wages per worker, % y/y Sep Prev 0.9 Cons 0.8
05:58 GMT Ireland: Services PMI, index Oct Prev 62.5 Cons 62.3
07:30 GMT Sweden: Services PMI, index Oct Prev 55.6
08:13 GMT Spain: Services PMI, index Oct Prev 55.8 Cons 55.5
08:15 GMT Swi: CPI, % m/m (y/y) Oct Prev 0.1 (-0.1) Cons -0.1 (-0.1)
08:30 GMT Sweden: Service production, % m/m (y/y) Sep Prev 0.7 (2.3)
08:30 GMT Sweden: Industrial production, % m/m (y/y) Sep Prev -0.2 (-2.4) Cons 0.3 (-2.0)
08:43 GMT Italy: Services PMI, index Oct Prev 48.8 Cons 49.4
08:48 GMT France: "Final" services PMI, index Oct Prev 48.2P Cons 48.1
08:53 GMT Germany: Final services PMI, index Oct Prev 54.8P Cons 54.8
08:58 GMT E18: Final services PMI, index Oct Prev 52.4P Cons 52.4
08:58 GMT E18: Final composite PMI, index Oct Prev 52.2P Cons 52.2
09:28 GMT UK: Services PMI, index Oct Prev 58.7- Cons 58.4
10:00 GMT E18: Retail sales, % m/m (y/y) Sep Prev 1.2 (1.9) Cons -0.7 (1.5)
13:15 GMT US: ADP private payrolls, chg, k Oct 217202 Prev 213 Cons 214
15:00 GMT US: ISM non-manufacturing index Oct 58.759.6 Prev 58.6 Cons 58.0


Thursday 06 November 1, 2014


08:30 GMT E18: ECB SSM Chair Nouy speaks at banking conference in Brussels
10:00 GMT Malaysia: Overnight rate, %Nov Prev 3.25 Cons 3.25
12:00 GMT Czech: Repo rate announcement, %Nov Prev 0.05 Cons 0.05
12:00 GMT UK: BoE Bank rate decision, %Nov Prev 0.50 Cons 0.50
12:00 GMT UK: BoE asset purchase decisionNov375375 Prev 375 Cons 375
12:45 GMT E18: ECB Interest rate announcement, %Nov Prev 0.05 Cons 0.05
13:30 GMT E18: ECB Press conference
14:00 GMT E18: Eurogroup meeting in Brussels
14:00 GMT WASHINGTON - Former Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland president Jerry Jordan will attend the Cato Institute's 32nd Annual Monetary Conference
15:40 GMT US: Chicago Fed President Evans (FOMC non-voter) speaks in Illinois
18:30 GMT US: Governor Powell (FOMC voter) speaks in Illinois


00:30 GMT Australia: Employment change, k Oct Prev -29.7 Cons 10.0
00:30 GMT Australia: Unemployment rate, % Oct Prev 6.16.1 Cons 6.1
00:30 GMT Australia: Participation rate, % Oct Prev 64.5- Cons 64.5
07:00 GMT Germany: Factory orders, %m/m (y/y) Sep Prev -5.7 (-1.3) Cons 2.2 (-1.0)
08:30 GMT Netherlands: HICP, % m/m (y/y) Oct Prev 0.0 (0.2) Cons -0.2 (0.4)
09:30 GMT UK: Industrial output, % m/m (y/y) Sep Prev 0.0 (2.5) Cons 0.4 (1.6)
09:30 GMT UK: Manufacturing output, % m/m (y/y) Sep Prev 0.1 (3.9) Cons 0.3 (2.8)
13:30 GMT US: Initial jobless claims, k (4wma) 01-Nov Prev 287 (281) Cons 285
13:30 GMT US: Non-farm productivity-p, % q/q 3Q P Prev 2.3 Cons 0.9
13:30 GMT US: Unit labor cost-p, % q/q 3Q P Prev -0.1 Cons 0.9
13:30 GMT Canada: Building permits, % m/m Sep Prev -27.3 Cons 5.0
15:00 GMT Canada: Ivey PMI, index Oct Prev 58.6
22:30 GMT Australia: AIG Construction PCI, index Oct Prev 59.1


Friday 07 November


E18: ECB SSM Chair Nouy and Executive Board member Coeuré speaks at symposium in Brussels-
Greece: PM Samaras visits Cyprus (to 08/11)
00:05 GMT US: Cleveland Fed President Mester (FOMC-voter) speaks in New York
00:30 GMT Australia: RBA statement on Monetary policyNov
08:00 GMT E28: ECOFIN meeting in Brussels
14:15 GMT US: Chicago Fed President Evans (FOMC non-voter) speaks in Illinois
15:15 GMT US: Fed chair Yellen (FOMC voter) speaks in Paris, France
19:30 GMT US: Fed Governor Tarullo (FOMC voter) speaks in Washington, D.C.
22:00 GMT E18: ECB Vice-President Constâncio speaks at annual international banking conference in Chicago


06:45 GMT Swi: Unemployment rate (adj), % Oct Prev 3.2 Cons 3.2
07:00 GMT Germany: Industrial production, % m/m (y/y) Sep Prev -4.0 (-2.8) Cons 2.0 (-0.6)
07:00 GMT Germany: Trade balance sa, € bn Sep Prev 14.0 Cons 19.0
07:30 GMT France: BdF industrial business sentiment, index Oct Prev 96.1 Cons 95.0
07:45 GMT France: Industrial production, % m/m (y/y) Sep Prev 0.0 (-0.3) Cons -0.2 (-0.2)
07:45 GMT France: Budget, year-to date, € bn Sep Prev -94.1
07:45 GMT France: Trade balance, € bn Sep Prev -5.8- Cons -5.1
09:00 GMT Norway: Manufacturing production, % m/m (y/y) Sep Prev 1.0 (5.2) Cons -0.7
09:30 GMT UK: Visible trade balance, £bn Sep Prev -9.1 Cons -9.3
13:30 GMT US: Non-farm payrolls, chg, k Oct Prev 248 Cons 230
13:30 GMT US: Private non-farm payrolls, chg, k Oct Prev 236 Cons 225
13:30 GMT US: Unemployment rate, %Oct Prev 5.9 Cons 5.9
13:30 GMT US: Average hourly earnings, % m/m (y/y) Oct Prev 0.0 (2.0) Cons 0.2 (2.1)
13:30 GMT US: Average weekly hours Oct Prev 34.6 Cons 34.6
13:30 GMT Canada: Unemployment rate, %Oct Prev 6.8 Cons 6.8
13:30 GMT Canada: Net change in employment, k Oct Prev 74.1 Cons 0.0
13:30 GMT Canada: Participation Rate, %Oct Prev 66.0- Cons 66.0
14:00 GMT Mexico: CPI inflation, % m/m Oct Prev 0.44 Cons 0.55
20:00 GMT US: Consumer credit, chg, $ bn Sep Prev 13.5 Cons 16.0


Saturday 08 November


China: Trade Balance, USD bn Oct Prev 40.0 Cons 35.4
China: Exports, % y/y Oct Prev 15.3 Cons 10.0
China: Imports, % y/y Oct Prev 7.0 Cons 7.0


Sunday 09 November


Spain: Catalonia referendum

Correlation table for the week and COT analysis.