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Attachments: Igrok Method. Q's & A's. Comments, thoughts and ideas
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Igrok Method. Q's & A's. Comments, thoughts and ideas

  • Post #21
  • Quote
  • Edited at 6:33am Mar 19, 2007 6:17am | Edited at 6:33am
Quoting ilanr
This is exactly my problem. I remember that discussion. In the chart in that thread, I saw price moving within a channel, ready to continue up or to break out. Traex (the person who posted the chart) saw there a text-book head and shoulders. You saw the diagonal diamond. As you are more experienced, I assume that your view has more chances to be correct, however, I'm blind re. how you arrived at it. Is there any way for you to post a diamond drawing on a weekly cable chart? ?
Draw the line from the bottom of 2005 to the bottom of 2004, then place another line at the same angle on the top of 2004 and you will get the idea of a broadening triangle which is likely to turn eventually into a diamond in 2-3 years from now.

Meanwhile, your capital is tied down to this position. Don't we want to find the time frame which would be optimal for the time we are ready to invest in trading.

After the market moves in your direction for a hundred pips your position will be supported by a floating profit. (to meet margin requirements)
[quote=Igrok;247829]Draw the line from the bottom of 2005 to the bottom of 2004, then place another line at the same angle on the top of 2004 and you will get the idea of a broadening triangle which is likely to turn eventually into a diamond in 2-3 years from now.

I see this (but I also see two strictly parallel lines forming a channel that was broke out last November). I'm still blind as to possible continuations of the triangle. Ok, I hope this is not the last day of this thread...

Quoting Igrok
After the market moves in your direction for a hundred pips your position will be supported by a floating profit. (to meet margin requirements)
How could I not understood this before? Thank you for taking another blind spot away from my eye...
sans peur et sans reproche
what are these "templates"? could u share some with us here?
Nice thread, Igrok. We all can learn alot of things from you.

Btw, for ~half-finished diamond formation in weekly cable, here I attach the trendlines supporting the formation in the past and future. Compare it with the EUR/USD chart I posted in another thread. You'll get a picture of what cable might possibly do. Just my opinion.
Attached Image
Tra-X
Thanks for posting this, Traex. This confirms what i understood from Igrok. This confirms my problem. And it is as follows.

I know, what a line is (s/r, trend, channel, fib levels - any sort of lines and stacks thereof): there is only one line that can pass through two points. And if one line connects three and more points - this line is even more "linear".

What is a definition of diamond? Edwards & Magee define it as "a more or less Complex Head-and-Shoulders with a V-shaped neckline". Bulkowski has a very precise definition: "How is a diamond bottom like asking a girl out on a date? When dealing with either, it is all in the approach". Igrok says that it is "two triangles merged together". A usual meaning of a "triangle" is three lines connecting three points. What people in TA call a triangle is a very free interpretation of this. The third point of the imaginary cable triangle should be somewhere in January, 2000. Is it relevant to the present situation?

So, I have the same problem with these formations as I have, as a researcher, with my clinical colleagues: they see things that I fail to see. It doesn't say, though, that they are not successul in what they do, on the contrary...
sans peur et sans reproche
I have some questions regarding the comb formation on template 20.1

see image:

Are the combs in red typical for the comb pattern (box 20.1)

Would you have attempted the triangle box 19.9?? If I remember correctly- I did personally trade the triangle- but I do remember thinking that this triangle was a part of a bigger pattern that I could not identify yet.

You mentioned a potential diamond formation- are you referring to box 19.11?

I noticed you do not have a template for a broadening triangle. Is this because they are very difficult patterns to trade?

I loved your book- I photocopied all your templates, pasted them to 4x8 notebook cards, and use at least one for every trade I make. It helps with discipline! I even made some new templates for some other personal setups I use.

Ty for sharing your work,

M Rippy
Attached Image
Here is a possible triangle trade I am setting up on 4hr Usd/Jpy.

This would be a box 19.9 or 19.10.

You can see the triangle first on 4hr line chart. image 1

Also, naturally a little bigger triangle with bar charts. image 2

My gut tells me to trade the breakout. However, the primary trend seems to be short, so I am going to set up a buy stop and a sell stop. I will also look to set up a stop and reverse after price makes up its mind etc..

Tx, M Rippy
Attached Images
I am sorry, but I also have one more question if you do not mind.

I am waiting for the triangle breakout on usd/jpy 4hr. Naturally I drop down to a shorter timeframe to see whats up with possible price direction. You can also notice that there is triangles everywhere- even on the 5min and triangles on RSI and shorterm KST. Price should really move after all this consolidating.

I also notice that usd/jpy is also forming average daily range template from opening of asian session etc.. The width appears to be a horizontal channel of about 60 pips. What template would this pattern fit? 18.1 - 18.4??

I appreciate anybodys thoughts also. These Average Daily Range templates are the first I have ever seen describing price relative to the asian-europe-new york sessions. I still have not had a chance to really categorize these consolidating regions in order to trade the breakouts etc.. I would usually clump them all into one category and wait for a breakout from a standard deviation channel.

Ty again, I am in no hurry for these answers, just curious about a few things,

M Rippy
Attached Image
Quoting ilanr
Thanks for posting this, Traex. This confirms what i understood from Igrok. This confirms my problem. And it is as follows.

I know, what a line is (s/r, trend, channel, fib levels - any sort of lines and stacks thereof): there is only one line that can pass through two points. And if one line connects three and more points - this line is even more "linear".

What is a definition of diamond? Edwards & Magee define it as "a more or less Complex Head-and-Shoulders with a V-shaped neckline". Bulkowski has a very precise definition: "How is a diamond bottom like asking a girl out on a date? When dealing with either, it is all in the approach". Igrok says that it is "two triangles merged together". A usual meaning of a "triangle" is three lines connecting three points. What people in TA call a triangle is a very free interpretation of this. The third point of the imaginary cable triangle should be somewhere in January, 2000. Is it relevant to the present situation?

So, I have the same problem with these formations as I have, as a researcher, with my clinical colleagues: they see things that I fail to see. It doesn't say, though, that they are not successul in what they do, on the contrary...
Diamonds come in different shapes and forms. Some of them more obvious than others but all of them look like rhombs which are in fact just two triangles put together. Unlike it is said in classic TA they can either be reversal or continuation patterns. Some indeed may look like a H&S. Here is another sample: the beginning of this year on the USD/CHF. Low 01.23.07 -> top 01.31.07 ->02.07.07. Those moves represent two diagonals and at the same time it looks like a H&S formation. However in real H&S the right shoulder is always either shorter than the left or of the exactly same size.
Quoting PipRippy
I noticed you do not have a template for a broadening triangle. Is this because they are very difficult patterns to trade?
In most instances a broadening triangle can be identified only after being formed and it usually is good only for anticipating it turning into a diamond in the future. On it’s own it is not tradable, on my opinion.
Quoting PipRippy
I am sorry, but I also have one more question if you do not mind.

I am waiting for the triangle breakout on usd/jpy 4hr. Naturally I drop down to a shorter timeframe to see whats up with possible price direction. You can also notice that there is triangles everywhere- even on the 5min and triangles on RSI and shorterm KST. Price should really move after all this consolidating.

I also notice that usd/jpy is also forming average daily range template from opening of asian session etc.. The width appears to be a horizontal channel of about 60 pips. What template would this pattern fit? 18.1 - 18.4??

I appreciate anybodys thoughts also. These Average Daily Range templates are the first I have ever seen describing price relative to the asian-europe-new york sessions. I still have not had a chance to really categorize these consolidating regions in order to trade the breakouts etc.. I would usually clump them all into one category and wait for a breakout from a standard deviation channel.

Ty again, I am in no hurry for these answers, just curious about a few things,

M Rippy
Oh, my God. Would you, please, post one question at a time? BTW on the picture you posted here it is not a triangle. The sequence of the moves inside is not right.
Sorry about so many questions- I was in a hurry because I had to go to work for about 8 hrs. If I ask a question it is no big deal if you take even a couple of days to answer- I am not trying to trade off your answers or anything like that.

Ty again,

M Rippy
  • Post #33
  • Quote
  • Edited at 11:09am Mar 20, 2007 9:07am | Edited at 11:09am
Quoting Igrok
Here is another sample: the beginning of this year on the USD/CHF. Low 01.23.07 -> top 01.31.07 ->02.07.07. Those moves represent two diagonals and at the same time it looks like a H&S formation. However in real H&S the right shoulder is always either shorter than the left or of the exactly same size.
I just love this game! I can see the two diagonals (two bottom borders of an ascending and a descending channels), I can see, why someone could mistake this for a H&S, but where does the diamond hide? I'm staring at the chart for the second day now... Children, could you please help poor Ilan find his diamond in the picture?

Now, serious. Could someone, please, post a chart of USD/CHF with the diamond on it? Thanks in advance...

Igrok, thanks a lot for your time and efforts.
sans peur et sans reproche
Quoting ilanr
I just love this game! I can see the two diagonals (two bottom borders of an ascending and a descending channels), I can see, why someone could mistake this for a H&S, but where does the diamond hide? I'm staring at the chart for the second day now... Children, could you please help poor Ilan find his diamond in the picture?

Now, serious. Could someone, please, post a chart of USD/CHF with the diamond on it? Thanks in advance...

Igrok, thanks a lot for your time and efforts.
OK. I will explain. What looks like splitting hair in fact is not. Correct pattern definition and identification make all the difference between taking either a profitable or a losing position. Let’s come back to the more obvious and recent sample with EUR/USD that we have already discussed above. When some people referred to the pattern as a “textbook quality H&S” and recommended selling instead of buying, obviously they made a mistake. Several mistakes.
The first mistake was made because they called a pattern before it became even complete. H&S formation becomes legit ONLY AFTER a neckline is reached and broken. In our case it has never happened at all. The second indicator actually distinguishing H&S from a two-diagonal diamond is that in real H&S the left shoulder is supposed to be “hollow”. The market should touch potential neckline only twice while forming in. It should look like a cup or an inverted cup (in case of an inverted H&S). A bar posted on the charts on 12.16.07 spoiled the picture by “splitting” the “cup” in two parts and by coming too close to the projected potential neckline. I often see people making such identification mistakes while I usually have no problem making a correct guess from a glance at the charts without even drawing any lines.
USD/CHF diamond. Hope this is what Igrok meant lol. Still newbie too here.
Attached Image
Tra-X
Quoting Traex
USD/CHF diamond. Hope this is what Igrok meant lol. Still newbie too here.
Ha-ha. Not exactly. With such "lines-drawing style" anything you want can be explained and any imaginary pattern can find a believer. My rule #1634267878 says that a correctly drawn trendline must not cross the chart. Freestyle drawing habit more often than not prodices fake patterns and false breaks. Why have you cut off that top made on 02.12.07?
Igrok, tnx for explaining. Traex, tnx for drawing.
Puzzle. Mystery. Suspence. Where does the diamond hide?
Traex, would it be too much work to post Version 2.0 of this chart for a dummy like myself?
sans peur et sans reproche
Got it this time, hopefully LOL.
Attached Image
Tra-X
Quoting Traex
Got it this time, hopefully LOL.
Now you got it. Because the right lower border has not been clearly defined while the diamond was in the process of forming, the market came back later and posted a top on 02.22.07 to outline the pattern exactly as it was supposed to look like.
BTW I shorted it on the very top at that day with stops of just 10 pips because the reason of coming back was absolutely obvious to me.
Great, thanks!
Let's say I can identify two triangles here (I can't, but maybe after seeing a lot more of these I will). Does calling this a diamond provide me with more insight than saying that the price went up within a neat channel from 2006.12.08, bumped into a resistance at 1.2564/70, became frustrated and jumped out of the channel on Jan 31, had some second and third thoughts, so spent some time in a range, until finally crossed down the 1.2374 support on Feb 15, and now happily slides down in a new neat channel. The reversal could be predicted with much certainty the moment the rising channel was broken out (at least, in retrospective...). So, would identifying the diamond on time help us more than identifying the breakout, and if so, how?
sans peur et sans reproche
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