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Trading technical analysis system based on Igrok method 137 replies

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Attachments: The IGROK files - Adventures of a rookie using the Igrok method
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The IGROK files - Adventures of a rookie using the Igrok method

  • Post #1
  • Quote
  • First Post: Edited 6:14am Jun 17, 2010 5:13am | Edited 6:14am
Good day to you all.

I'm still a rookie in this Forex game, and have been demo trading for less than a year. I have tried various systems and methods using the most weird and wonderful indicators known to man, however I found that they all had one thing in common: they consistantly lost me more money than I made!

One may argue that it is partly the trader's mentality that loses the money, and not the system, and while this may be true, I argue that the ever changing market itself has no respect for man and his systems and indicators. If you are consistantly making money using a variety of indicators, then more power to you, but this is not a road I personally wish to travel on any further.

Thus we come to the wonderful world of the Igrok method. For those of you not familiar with this, I suggest you get yourself a copy of the excellent book 'Beat the Odds in Forex Trading' by Igor Toshchakov (Igrok). Once you have completed reading this, visit the thread where the author himself was kind enough to answer questions from mere mortals such as ourselves. How many authors/traders have made time to do this, over a 3 year period, I ask?

The method basically teaches you how to trade on the principles of the Average Daily Trading Range, Trendlines, and Patterns. The book contains templates which can be applied to specific price setups and helps to take a lot of the emotion out of trading. However, it still requires a lot of time, study, dedication, and practise to master, as spotting patterns and other setups is an art which can only be gained through experiance.

As you read through this thread, you will see that we mainly use Trend Lines, MACD to spot divegence and use as confirmation of price target, and also statistical data based on Average Daily and Weekly Range. Apart from that, there are no moving averages, bollinger bands, SARS, candles, etc. Occasionally we may use RSI to check overbought/oversold levels, but that's about it.

Price action and trendlines are our best friends here

This journal has been started so I can keep track of all my winners and losers, and be able to analayse what went wrong. Hopefully this can help all the other Igrok rookies out there to.

So with that, peace and good trading to you all.
Here's a 19.10 I launched earlier:

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I beleive I have a MACD div which should give me the target I need.
Quoting niteshift02
Here's a 19.10 I launched earlier:

Attachment

I beleive I have a MACD div which should give me the target I need.
Well, it came close to my target, but has now moved away. Looks like I will hit break even, not willing to risk my correct SL below lower TL:

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Quoting niteshift02
Well, it came close to my target, but has now moved away. Looks like I will hit break even, not willing to risk my correct SL below lower TL:

Attachment
Hit my SL at break even, but price now looks like it's moving up again. Bugger, hate it when that happens. Now that's a good arguement for not messing around with SL, and giving PA space to breath. My main problem is that I entered the trade a tad too late in the first place, so didn't like the R:R.

In any case, PA is on top of a major TL, and the next touch will be the fourth, hopefully kiss of death. Sell Order is ready and waiting for a possible 20.4 play.

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Here's another one from this morning. Sell Order triggered on a sort of flat surface. Price moved down around 30 pips before reversing and hitting my SL. Now this can happen a lot in the early Euro/late Asian session, so I need to be more vigilant in the future, and just take whatever profits are there before PA reverese.

My SL and Buy order got triggered, and I lost around 52 pips on the initial trade. Need to pay more attention to timing and entry so I can reduce the R:R. In fact, need to be more awake at that of the morning so I don't enter such high R:R trades at all. However, the Buy Order has proved to be a winner, and we are already over 100% on the ADR:

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I think I'll take my cash now please Exited 81 pips on the long trade, -52 pips original loss = +29 pips profit. I actually used RSI oversold level to decide when to exit the trade, didn't want to get greedy waiting for PA to move up further, plus we already at 102% on ADR.
Good luck to you!
I will be with great interest and pleasure to read your journals.
Quoting fxairy
Good luck to you!
I will be with great interest and pleasure to read your journals.
Thanks fxairy for your kind words. Good luck to you to
Quoting niteshift02

....and the next touch will be the fourth, hopefully kiss of death. Sell Order is ready and waiting for a possible 20.4 play.

Attachment
Well, I'm in the trade now, but it is more of a 20.6 than a 20.4, which is a flat surface daily chart template.

As we are inside a larger triangle which can be seen on the 4hr/daily charts, my target is set beyond the lower triangle TL. If it bounces off the lower TL I will take my profits and set off an order in the other direction, that is if I'm still awake

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  • Post #9
  • Quote
  • Edited 10:29am Jun 17, 2010 10:13am | Edited 10:29am
Quoting niteshift02
Well, I'm in the trade now, but it is more of a 20.6 than a 20.4, which is a flat surface daily chart template.

As we are inside a larger triangle which can be seen on the 4hr/daily charts, my target is set beyond the lower triangle TL. If it bounces off the lower TL I will take my profits and set off an order in the other direction, that is if I'm still awake

Attachment
Trailing stop hit on Sell order, made an easy 24 pips. Could've been more if I just left the SL be. Right now lower TL on larger triangle is still being tested, don't know wether to buy or sell yet
Well, lower triangle TL looks broken to me, so Sell order now executed. Target is psychological level of 90.00 as I don't have any other targets or TLs to aim for at this time.

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I could've avoided all of this if I followed one simple rule:
DON'T MESS WITH YOUR STOP LOSS!!!

I keep doing it and doing it. But the dilemma is when price is approaching a major TL, it will either break it, or bounce off it, both at speed. So what do you do to protect your profits? Trailing stops are OK to an extent, but mine got hit earlier pretty fast. Well at least I didn't lose anything I guess
  • Post #11
  • Quote
  • Edited 11:55am Jun 17, 2010 11:04am | Edited 11:55am
Quoting niteshift02
Well, lower triangle TL looks broken to me, so Sell order now executed. Target is psychological level of 90.00 as I don't have any other targets or TLs to aim for at this time.
SL hit on Sell order, PA moving away from lower TL for now. Could be a false break. Hope it is as I now have a Buy order activated. If I lose on that, I'll call it a day.

Remember kids, overtrading is bad for your health .
Quoting niteshift02
SL hit on Sell order, PA moving away from lower TL for now. Could be a false break. Hope it is as I now have a Buy order activated. If I lose on that, I'll call it a day.

Buy order closed for 11 pips. Not going to be around to monitor trade any further.

So far today I'm up 39 pips. Now this could easily have been almost double if I had made better decisions, but hopefully I can learn from every wrong trade.
Good morning all,

Greetings students of the game. Today for breakfast, I'm looking to do a 19.10 on a large triangle that can be seen on 30min charts.

The intitial order is a buy order with price expected to move up. However my SL and reverse order are set at 12 pips, so if price decides to move south, I'm in the trade. I expect large moves on the this pair today, as only 62% AWR has been completed.

Being in a half drunken state in the morning, I should have really started this trade the other way round with a Sell order set outside the lower TL, a 19.9. Especially so with what appears to be a false break on the upper TL the other day.

Without coffee and breakfast, and getting up late, logic is last to join me. But too late now, let's just sit back and watch the show:

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Back to visit my old friend from yesterday, USDJPY. Same setup with this one, good ol' 19.10. Buy order intitiated with the logic that the lower TL rejected price yesterday, so we expect price to move upwards. SL at 16 pips with reverse order in case price decides to go south for the weekend. Also 67% AWR completed, so I expect big movement on this pair, hopefully my way

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Quoting niteshift02
Good morning all,

Greetings students of the game. Today for breakfast, I'm looking to do a 19.10 on a large triangle that can be seen on 30min charts.

The initial order is a buy order with price expected to move up. However my SL and reverse order are set at 12 pips, so if price decides to move south, I'm in the trade. I expect large moves on the this pair today, as only 62% AWR has been completed.

Well, that was well and truly a rotten trade. First Buy order stopped out for 12 pips, Sell order then triggered. PA messed about around the lower TL, then moved up and took out my SL at 20 pips, so -32 pips on this ill fated trade.

This is how it looks now:

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Knowing my luck, PA will probably go down again. I didn't set a reverse order for this, so I think me and EURGBP are done for today. so what went wrong?

Either my triangle TLs are wrong, or SLs are not set far enough. Apart from that, unless there's some significant price level that I'm not aware of, I can only accept that this is one of the rare occasions PA refuses to accept the triangle it lives in.

In any case, the better option would've been to enter the trade from the top of the triangle, but I'm not awake at that time, and I rarely leave trades open overnight.
Quote
Well, that was well and truly a rotten trade. First Buy order stopped out for 12 pips, Sell order then triggered. PA messed about around the lower TL, then moved up and took out my SL at 20 pips, so -32 pips on this ill fated trade.

Either my triangle TLs are wrong, or SLs are not set far enough. Apart from that, unless there's some significant price level that I'm not aware of, I can only accept that this is one of the rare occasions PA refuses to accept the triangle it lives in.


Having looked at the failed trade again, I can see possibly why it failed. My initial Buy trade should have been the one I stuck to. AWR was around 62% complete at time trade was taken, so today we would expect PA to move significantly to at least make this 90-100%.

Now what I should have done was looked at the bigger picture:

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As you can see, the low point of the weekly range was already established on Tuesday, and the last highest point of the weekly range yesterday. This morning we had a retrace to around 50% of the weekly high low range, and it would seem logical that price will now continue upwards to complete the average range.

Now what does this mean for our triangle pattern? Well maybe there is no triangle, only a lower TL that got breached, and an upper TL that also got messed up yesterday. So maybe these lines become unreliable. Only time will tell. With more practise and experiance I would hope to be able to tell the differance.

In any case, this trade has taught the value of looking at the bigger picture. Especially important on a Friday, we need to know where our high/lows of the week are.

What's worse is that there was actually a better more simple TL breakout trade available on EURJPY today
Quoting niteshift02
Back to visit my old friend from yesterday, USDJPY. Same setup with this one, good ol' 19.10. Buy order intitiated with the logic that the lower TL rejected price yesterday, so we expect price to move upwards. SL at 16 pips with reverse order in case price decides to go south for the weekend. Also 67% AWR completed, so I expect big movement on this pair, hopefully my way

Attachment
Well, another one bites the dust. SL and reverse order hit this morning for a loss of 18 pips. Sell order looked promising, only for PA to reverse and hit my other SL for another 18 pips.

Reason for failure? Don't know at this stage, maybe the TLs are wrong, SL not big enough, etc. I'd still say price will go down again as that AWR is begging to be completed.

So with this and the other failure, my record so far today is -68 pips loss.

I think I'll stay away from triangles for the time being, but of course if I didn't try it and lose, how can I learn?
Hi,

I used to use Igrok templates only without considering the mid term trend maybe at 4hr or daily charts and faced pretty high failure rate.

Still i hope you consider trade with the trend and use Igrok templates to buy/sell. Looking at this week, the main movers currencies is CHF and GBP and it shouldn't be difficult to see the trend. I would say trade the easy one... with Igrok templates. Most important, more profit and less stress.
Quoting niteshift02
Having looked at the failed trade again, I can see possibly why it failed. My initial Buy trade should have been the one I stuck to. AWR was around 62% complete at time trade was taken, so today we would expect PA to move significantly to at least make this 90-100%.

Now what I should have done was looked at the bigger picture:

Attachment

As you can see, the low point of the weekly range was already established on Tuesday, and the last highest point of the weekly range yesterday. This morning we had a retrace to around 50% of the...

The EURGBP autopsy just gets better and better (or worse depending on perspective) the more I inspect the trade's dead corpse. Looks like there was a MACD div on the 30 min chart which further confirms the Buy trade was the best option, and secondly I have redrawn the TLs as the old triangle appeared to be unreliable. I'm certain the div target 0.8380 will be reached today.

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Click to Enlarge Name: 18 jun eurgbp awr with macd div.gif Size: 20 KB
Quoting songbo
Hi,

I used to use Igrok templates only without considering the mid term trend maybe at 4hr or daily charts and faced pretty high failure rate.

Still i hope you consider trade with the trend and use Igrok templates to buy/sell. Looking at this week, the main movers currencies is CHF and GBP and it shouldn't be difficult to see the trend. I would say trade the easy one... with Igrok templates. Most important, more profit and less stress.
Thanks for your feedback Songbo. Yes, the bigger time frames are very important when using this method, and I guess that's what I've been learning this week: always look at the bigger picture. Sometimes it is too easy to see a setup and just enter it without considering other factors. I think my triangles have let me down today as well, so maybe updating TLs at least twice day might be the way forward.

As for currency pairs, yes, some have been better than others have this week. My problem is when I'm faced with 3 or 4 possible trades in the morning, I have to choose the option which has the cheapest spread, and my broker is a thieving cnut when it comes to some pairs...!

Hopefully soon I will have less stress and more profit

Peace and good trading my friends
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