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Lilmoe's Trading System and Analysis

  • #581
  • Dec 12, 2008 10:53am Dec 12, 2008 10:53am
Quoting hwsv07
short at retracement to 5sma.

Bearish HD.
But CCI30 is questionable.

would you go for it?
This is what Bearish HD looks likes. (green bars on macd). Current 1 hr chart.
Attached Image
  • #582
  • Dec 12, 2008 10:57am Dec 12, 2008 10:57am
can someone tell me how i add/save one of the indicators to my metatrader 4?
DM if you have any questions
  • #583
  • Dec 12, 2008 11:02am Dec 12, 2008 11:02am
This may explain it better. Current 1 hr chart.
Attached Image
  • #584
  • Dec 12, 2008 11:04am Dec 12, 2008 11:04am
And at the current time, you can see bullish HD on the 5 min. Price keeps bouncing to the 1 hr 50 and back down forming bullish HD on the 5 min. This is great for scalping up and down until it finally breaks out.
  • #585
  • Dec 12, 2008 11:08am Dec 12, 2008 11:08am
Quoting jkrick33
can someone tell me how i add/save one of the indicators to my metatrader 4?
Crogram Files>>>>Your Platform>>>>Experts>>>>Indicators>>>Save. Then close and reopen platform
  • #586
  • Dec 12, 2008 11:35am Dec 12, 2008 11:35am
Quoting PipChick
And at the current time, you can see bullish HD on the 5 min. Price keeps bouncing to the 1 hr 50 and back down forming bullish HD on the 5 min. This is great for scalping up and down until it finally breaks out.
thanks for the insights.
"Don't trade to trade . . . trade to win." - James16
  • #587
  • Dec 12, 2008 11:48am Dec 12, 2008 11:48am
Quoting Flem26
thanks for the insights.
YW
  • #588
  • Dec 12, 2008 6:24pm Dec 12, 2008 6:24pm
Quoting PipChick
That is classic bullish div on your chart hwsv07
erm.. i still do not get it. isn't that the same case for as your example?

for a Bearish HD: Price LL; Indicator HH.

for my chart #579: my price was making lower lows. but my MACD was showing higher highs. does it not fulfil the condition?

so just to confirm my understanding: if the prediction plays out; the PA should move lower?
  • #589
  • Dec 12, 2008 6:33pm Dec 12, 2008 6:33pm
Quoting PipChick
And at the current time, you can see bullish HD on the 5 min. Price keeps bouncing to the 1 hr 50 and back down forming bullish HD on the 5 min. This is great for scalping up and down until it finally breaks out.
do you mind taking out that particular time period out from your chart and show all the entry and exit points? my brain's going gaga just deciphering whether to enter cos there's hidden/classic bearish/bullish div and what not...

thanks a million; if you could do this.
  • #590
  • Dec 13, 2008 2:11am Dec 13, 2008 2:11am
Quoting hwsv07
do you mind taking out that particular time period out from your chart and show all the entry and exit points? my brain's going gaga just deciphering whether to enter cos there's hidden/classic bearish/bullish div and what not...

thanks a million; if you could do this.
hwsv07..you may need to read page one of lilmoes thread again to get a better understanding of enrties and exits. Im not real sure what you are asking. Sorry.
  • #591
  • Dec 14, 2008 4:39am Dec 14, 2008 4:39am
Quoting peter_est
Hi, Lil,
It is my first post in the thread, however, I have been following such an interesting method for quite a while.
I have a couple of questions about setups for GY today...If you find some spare time could you be so kind to clarify a couple of moments for me?
hi there, and im very sorry for the late reply... busy week, holidays and stuff, also trying to trade was a handful. so sorry again.

i had some trouble at first trying to understand what ur question was. but after reading the post a couple of times more i think i get the picture. that's a good question by the way

anyway, looking back at the same scenario u're suggesting. u were correct for waiting for the higher level TF for a 50ema bounce (rule#4), because cci was above the 100 line and the bearish HD formed WHEN price was above 50ema on the 5m chart. the higher TF in that case was m15 just like u mentioned.

and again, just like u mentioned m15 DID form a bearish HD when we price reached its 50ema. in this particular case it means that we're trading the bearish HD on the m15 chart combined with that of the m5 chart. i wont post a chart since your post was pretty comprehesive and u get the picture.

as u probably have read in my posts, the 1st target of the HD is most likely gann of that TF if price was above gann (in the case of that bearish HD)... now if we look back at that scenario u'll find that m15 gann was actually reached. it is true that good MM is the way to go, and it's true that i set my SL to B/E or +1 to +10 most of the time, but that doesn't mean it wont get hit. there are instances when 50ema is retested several times, which was exactly the case before m15 gann was hit. each time provides u a good trade opportunity with minimum SL unless one or more of the following occurs.
1) we close above m15 50ema (in that case)
2) CCI breaks a level (the 0 line in the case of that m15 bearish HD)
3) the HD is broken (and the following are only my personal way of judging a broken HD, it's not necessarily true ALL the time):

a) MACD built a bottom (bottom pink bars), then makes peak (blue) bars, which in that case provides either continuation or another signal. the bearish HD is valid only if we still had blue bars on MACD and didn't yet creat pink bars. if you add the 0 level to MACD u'll see that blue bars are above the 0 line, and pink lines are below the 0 line. (i know this might sound a bit confusing at first, but try reading (a) a couple of times till u understand what i mean)
b) the price that GJ made when MACD first peaked was taken out, and in that case it was 138.6x, where u drew that TL on price (the left side of the TL)

i personally made a couple of short entries at that setup. made 40 pips the first time and 70 pips the second time, where both my second halves of the trade were stopped out... but still managed to make some

hope this answers ur question, plz DO NOT hesitate to ask anything else if things are still not clear, if u don't understand something then i'm sure someone else doesn't. it would be nice if we make things clearer for everyone

i was going to rewrite the rules, but i think i'll wait till most of u guys finish asking ur questions so that i know what points i should "underline" and which i should explane further.
  • #592
  • Dec 14, 2008 4:40am Dec 14, 2008 4:40am
Quoting hwsv07
i made this trade.

the CCI cross 100.
there was a classic bearish divergence on the M15.

can lilmoe comment on this? hope i'm seeing this correctly
the trade was prefect

however, that wasn't a trade according to my system, it was simply a trade based on a double top with a classic bearish divergence.

remember, it wasn't me who discovered divergence (Classic or hidden), i just combined many theories and created a system out of it
  • #593
  • Dec 14, 2008 5:57am Dec 14, 2008 5:57am
Quoting marcb
Hi Lilmoe,
sorry but I am not an english native speaker and I am having problems in understanding rule #2:[indent]rule #2: when CCI and/or MACD detect a classic divergence while price is touching a strong SR level when CCI is below/above the -100/0/100 line (in that established trend), price tends to "seek" 50ema of that timeframe IF CCI makes it back above/below the -100/0/100 lines. classic...

ok, i will try to explain it using a scenario. i won't post a chart because i have one already posted with the exact same "ideal world" scenario.

note: i have the word "price" in purple, meaning that u're looking at GJ's candlesticks, and price touched a strong S/R level.

now for the scenario

1) price is going down in a bearish market.
2) price starts forming a classic bullish divergence, where an indicator/oscillator is forming a higher low when price is making lower lows.
3) price bounces off a strong S/R level and BREAKS the bearish trend's descending trendline.
4) CCI30 of that TF was trading below the -100 line. but after price has broken the descending trendline it closed back ABOVE the -100 line meaning that a significant level was broken.

if we have all the above met. then according to that rule, price tends to reach 50ema of that particular timeframe and if a hidden divergence forms when price touches 50ema, price usually bounces back and continues in the direction of the main trend afterwords.

hope this makes things clearer.
  • #594
  • Dec 14, 2008 5:59am Dec 14, 2008 5:59am
Quoting belekas
Hello lilmoe. How you doing big brother? We have classic bearish divergence on the 15m GBP/USD. Do you trade classic divergences like hidden ones, or no? Also 15 bearish classic on the GBP/YEN.

hey there bro... sorry i wasn't replying lately but i was VERY busy...

and yes, i do trade classic div
  • #595
  • Dec 14, 2008 6:01am Dec 14, 2008 6:01am
Quoting hwsv07
[b]hi lilmoe,

what if the price does not retrace back to 50EMA/Gann in the particular TF, how do you know when to get out of that trade?
good question...

we had a very good example back in september when price did NOT reach 50ema on the daily chart. this happens usually when there's a trendline, gann of a higher TF, or a strong s/r level before 50ema. that's why the concept of partial profit exists

if another case such as the one u're asking about presents itself i will post and discuss it without delay
  • #596
  • Dec 14, 2008 6:03am Dec 14, 2008 6:03am
Quoting hwsv07
short at retracement to 5sma.

Bearish HD.
But CCI30 is questionable.

would you go for it?

bro, we do NOT have a bearish HD there. that's a very common example of a classic bullish divergence.

plz try to distinguish between classic and hidden divergencies. piters have posted some good materials on both subjects so do lots of websites out there.

try to google classic and hidden divergence and u'll get LOTS of materials about it that should explain things further in detail
  • #597
  • Dec 14, 2008 6:04am Dec 14, 2008 6:04am
Quoting PipChick
This may explain it better. Current 1 hr chart.
thanks pipchick, not only are u right, but u've been a lot of help and inspiration for me
  • #598
  • Dec 14, 2008 7:05am Dec 14, 2008 7:05am
hi pipchick and lilmoe,

i do get the idea of classical and hidden divergence already. perhaps i'm still not used to them. thanks for pointing out to me,and would appreciate your guidance should i make a wrong call again.
  • #599
  • Dec 14, 2008 10:47am Dec 14, 2008 10:47am
Quoting hwsv07
do you mind taking out that particular time period out from your chart and show all the entry and exit points? my brain's going gaga just deciphering whether to enter cos there's hidden/classic bearish/bullish div and what not...

thanks a million; if you could do this.
bro, classic divergence is as strong as hidden divergence. however, they are both the opposite in terms of highs and lows.

classic bullish divergence: price makes a lower low, but the indicators make a higher low.
classic bearish divergence: price makes a higher high, but price makes a lower high.

hidden bullish divergence: price makes a higher low, indicator makes a lower low.

hidden bearish divergence: price makes a lower high, indicator makes a higher high

write that down on a piece of paper, and print out a 1 example chart of each, and stick it next to your screen. that might help out
  • #600
  • Dec 14, 2008 11:06am Dec 14, 2008 11:06am
Quoting hwsv07
hi pipchick and lilmoe,

i do get the idea of classical and hidden divergence already. perhaps i'm still not used to them. thanks for pointing out to me,and would appreciate your guidance should i make a wrong call again.
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