No man can capture all the fluctuations.....Jesse Livermore.....
FRACTALS/HYBRID:trading system within a trading system
Generally, high win rate(high win:loss) tends to come with lower risk/reward; or vice versa: the higher the risk/reward the lower the win rate.
A trading system that combine win/loss of roughly 60% along with a regular 8R to 20R(r:r of 1:8 or 1:20) are very rare, if they even exist at all. That is my little observation about trading.
AXIOM: Any system with a high R/R ratio must use a higher time frame for setups and lower time frames for entry. The greater the differential, the better.
Now, how does one take care of the poor win:loss ratio that plagues such a system.
There are other solutions, of course. But the one that has worked for me is to combine/hybridized a scalping system on a lower time with a trend trading system of higher time frame. That is, enter at the entry point of the scalp(1mins to 15mins), but use the PT of the trending trading system(H4 to weekly). If the scalping system has a respectable win/loss of say, 60% and above; and the trend trading system has a respectable win/loss of say 60% and above. We are in business. Of course, there is going to be a sizable dose of breakevens, this is the nature of the beast. It is essentially a trading system within a trading system. A hybrid. This is optimal for high risk/reward, of say, 8R or 20R with a win rate of 60%. It is risking around 4pips to 15 pips to make 100pips to 243 pips or higher.
Trend trading breakouts for my higher time frame strategy has this structure.
http://www.forex-mail.com/images/trend1.png
The higher time frame methodologies are: swinging/wave movements and polygonal breakouts on the daily frame using lower 1/8th or 1/4th b-p-c.(BREAKOUT - PULLBACK - CONTINUATION). I am sure there are others, but these are the ones that i personally know to result in 60% win rate or higher.
For the scalping method: One trading method that i found to have at least 60% success rate at 1min to 15mins time frame are ascending or descending triangle breakout, that ran, pullback, and then continue in the direction of the breakout. With entrance at the reversal candle at the bottom of the pullback.
From my own personal study, i notice this method works in all time frames. Lets called this by acronym: TBPC
http://fx-arabia.com/vb/uploaded/964_11284889713.png
As such, the combination of the two:using the higher time frame trend trading to set the PT and the lower time frame TBPC to set the entry yields a high win:loss with a 10 to 20 r:r.
This is the framework. There is nothing groundbreaking here. It is simply a combination of two elegantly simple techniques. I will start posting live setups
IN A NUTSHELL:
All these systems are simply little variations of the same thing.
(1)find a robust, simple system on a higher time frame with a good win/loss of 60% or higher; with a 1:1 to 1:3 r/r
(2) find a simple, robust system on a LOWER TIME FRAME with a good win/loss and a decent r/r of say 1:1 to 1:3.
(3) merge the two together. Use as your entry the lower time frame methodology, while using the TP of the higher time frame for exit. Sometimes, it is the same system from a 4hr or daily time frame that is now replicated on a 5mins or 1mins time frame, inside itself. This is how i know to get a decent win/loss ratio with a respectable R/R of say, 1: 8 to 1:20(especially, if the setup is weekly or monthly, and the entry is 1 or 5mins.). Of course, breakevens increases. and win/loss drops due to the noise of 1mins...that is why i look far away from red-labeled news.
(4)Use purely price action. Trade with the trend. Avoid red-labeled news.
_______________________________________________________________________
_______________________________________________________________________
ADDENDUM: useful threads that i adapted from:
Building an equity millipede
Trend Trading All Pairs
Central Banks & Big Players
Trading with Deadly Accuracy
DanUK's Advanced Trend Trading Strategy
My way of trading by Using trend line , BL line & febo level
FRACTALS/HYBRID:trading system within a trading system
Generally, high win rate(high win:loss) tends to come with lower risk/reward; or vice versa: the higher the risk/reward the lower the win rate.
A trading system that combine win/loss of roughly 60% along with a regular 8R to 20R(r:r of 1:8 or 1:20) are very rare, if they even exist at all. That is my little observation about trading.
AXIOM: Any system with a high R/R ratio must use a higher time frame for setups and lower time frames for entry. The greater the differential, the better.
Now, how does one take care of the poor win:loss ratio that plagues such a system.
There are other solutions, of course. But the one that has worked for me is to combine/hybridized a scalping system on a lower time with a trend trading system of higher time frame. That is, enter at the entry point of the scalp(1mins to 15mins), but use the PT of the trending trading system(H4 to weekly). If the scalping system has a respectable win/loss of say, 60% and above; and the trend trading system has a respectable win/loss of say 60% and above. We are in business. Of course, there is going to be a sizable dose of breakevens, this is the nature of the beast. It is essentially a trading system within a trading system. A hybrid. This is optimal for high risk/reward, of say, 8R or 20R with a win rate of 60%. It is risking around 4pips to 15 pips to make 100pips to 243 pips or higher.
Trend trading breakouts for my higher time frame strategy has this structure.
http://www.forex-mail.com/images/trend1.png
The higher time frame methodologies are: swinging/wave movements and polygonal breakouts on the daily frame using lower 1/8th or 1/4th b-p-c.(BREAKOUT - PULLBACK - CONTINUATION). I am sure there are others, but these are the ones that i personally know to result in 60% win rate or higher.
For the scalping method: One trading method that i found to have at least 60% success rate at 1min to 15mins time frame are ascending or descending triangle breakout, that ran, pullback, and then continue in the direction of the breakout. With entrance at the reversal candle at the bottom of the pullback.
From my own personal study, i notice this method works in all time frames. Lets called this by acronym: TBPC
http://fx-arabia.com/vb/uploaded/964_11284889713.png
As such, the combination of the two:using the higher time frame trend trading to set the PT and the lower time frame TBPC to set the entry yields a high win:loss with a 10 to 20 r:r.
This is the framework. There is nothing groundbreaking here. It is simply a combination of two elegantly simple techniques. I will start posting live setups
IN A NUTSHELL:
All these systems are simply little variations of the same thing.
(1)find a robust, simple system on a higher time frame with a good win/loss of 60% or higher; with a 1:1 to 1:3 r/r
(2) find a simple, robust system on a LOWER TIME FRAME with a good win/loss and a decent r/r of say 1:1 to 1:3.
(3) merge the two together. Use as your entry the lower time frame methodology, while using the TP of the higher time frame for exit. Sometimes, it is the same system from a 4hr or daily time frame that is now replicated on a 5mins or 1mins time frame, inside itself. This is how i know to get a decent win/loss ratio with a respectable R/R of say, 1: 8 to 1:20(especially, if the setup is weekly or monthly, and the entry is 1 or 5mins.). Of course, breakevens increases. and win/loss drops due to the noise of 1mins...that is why i look far away from red-labeled news.
(4)Use purely price action. Trade with the trend. Avoid red-labeled news.
_______________________________________________________________________
_______________________________________________________________________
ADDENDUM: useful threads that i adapted from:
Building an equity millipede
Trend Trading All Pairs
Central Banks & Big Players
Trading with Deadly Accuracy
DanUK's Advanced Trend Trading Strategy
My way of trading by Using trend line , BL line & febo level