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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #7,981
  • Mar 9, 2007 8:45am Mar 9, 2007 8:45am
I'm dead and gone ... us are not MORONS, this is bad faith, they surely can't miss 30% or even 3%. There are intersts beyond my understanding driving this mess ! darn again !!!
  • #7,982
  • Mar 9, 2007 8:52am Mar 9, 2007 8:52am
Quoting cesarnc
It's not going to be an easy trade, though.

So, a good NFP figure - or most likely - a good revision will mean dollar bullish. In the other hand, this same good figure will mean carries bullish. So Cable may get stretched in this scenario.
Yup... Just like that...

Now EUR wants to go down, GJ wants to go up and GU is between 9300-9310 for 1 hour already..
  • #7,983
  • Mar 9, 2007 8:54am Mar 9, 2007 8:54am
Quoting QFXB
Maybe itīs time to open your thread: "Letīs curse the fu$"&% us economists....Lol I also lost plenty of money with their "revision"... I guess today my Buchanans is going to be my best friend
Hey Mr Waker here says hello to Mr Buchanans... Those were my friend Walker's last words before dying dry today...
  • #7,984
  • Mar 9, 2007 8:57am Mar 9, 2007 8:57am
After all this sideway sh*t I fear the breakout. Should be a strong one, whenever the time is coming... Ouch!
  • #7,985
  • Mar 9, 2007 9:00am Mar 9, 2007 9:00am
Quoting katzenhai2
I don't understand! How can they now say that the figure in Jan was 146k and not 111k, like it was stated before?? Thats fraud!?!?

Thats how they manipulate the market... or what?
The more and more I trade I begin to hate the capitalism! Fraud everywhere around...
Hey katze... this seems to be in two direction.

See? The actual figure was bad. The revision was good. So the market took the lil 30K mistake as the correction and went dollar bullish.

But if 30K correction is on the table, the 97K can be 67K, what would be a huge disaster, no? "Well, let's deal with that next month" is the message.

The economists pretend to be serious, the market pretends to believe in them. Everybody goes home happy.
  • #7,986
  • Mar 9, 2007 9:07am Mar 9, 2007 9:07am
When came the revision out? At 8:30 too?
  • #7,987
  • Mar 9, 2007 9:10am Mar 9, 2007 9:10am
Quoting katzenhai2
When came the revision out? At 8:30 too?
Yup...

First NFP I see the price spiking to the opposite direction at the news...

We cannot call this "weird" in a week like that, can we?

US economy don't need economists. They need cooks
  • #7,988
  • Mar 9, 2007 9:16am Mar 9, 2007 9:16am
Told you all NFP is not the reliable one compared to ADP. Right cesarnc?
Bad market for past 2-3 days for me, no trend to follow. Hope next week will be better.

Btw, a msg from my broker, applicable to you all I think:

US Daylight Savings Time starts at 2:00 AM on Sunday, March 11, 2007

Starting in 2007, daylight savings time (DST) in the United States is changing. DST in the US will start at 2:00 AM on Sunday, March 11, 2007 (three weeks earlier) and end at 2:00 AM on Sunday, November 4, 2007 (one week later).


Enjoy your weekend.
Tra-X
  • #7,989
  • Mar 9, 2007 9:21am Mar 9, 2007 9:21am
Trading the news is a losing proposition. Period.

A) The lied about the numbers.

B) My broker freezes the quotes

C) The spread widens during volatile periods.

D) Etc etc.

+ + +

A) If you don't trust the numbers - don't trade.

B) If your broker sucks - move to another.

C) If the spread widens - see A.

D) Each of us alone are responsible for our trades.

Now if only cable would get off of its ass so we can have some kind of a breakout into a trend again.
  • #7,990
  • Mar 9, 2007 9:26am Mar 9, 2007 9:26am
Trading news can be valuable if you have the right broker and follows the trend. But what are you doing if there is no trend at all?! *grmpf*

Quote
US Daylight Savings Time starts at 2:00 AM on Sunday, March 11, 2007
Means I must live 3 weeks now with wrong times at news (because I live in europe). Oh well...
  • #7,991
  • Mar 9, 2007 9:31am Mar 9, 2007 9:31am
Does anyone know if the daylight savings thing is going to have an effect on longer term trading? Ive been thinking about it but i dont see exactly how it would, other than maybe because of production rundowns.
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #7,992
  • Mar 9, 2007 9:42am Mar 9, 2007 9:42am
Interesting to see how GJ is reacting to Dow Jones...

http://www.nyse.com/about/listed/lcd...tml?ticker=DJI

I say there are rabbits in the hat for late NY today...
  • #7,993
  • Mar 9, 2007 10:02am Mar 9, 2007 10:02am
Quote
I say there are rabbits in the hat for late NY today...
Yes, exactly my thoughts! But, after all this sh*t the last days and today, I'm not sure if these rabbits are amputees and can't hop away.
  • #7,994
  • Mar 9, 2007 10:12am Mar 9, 2007 10:12am
Quoting katzenhai2
Yes, exactly my thoughts! But, after all this sh*t the last days and today, I'm not sure if these rabbits are amputees and can't hop away.
Rabbits look well to me. Problem is to pick the right rabbit.

GJ is likely to move later on. I just cannot stand its volatility, though. So I usually trade GU instead. Less gains, less tachycardia.

But sometimes it is not GU who moves along. It is UJ. With Euro do damn low (thus EG way too low), UJ may go along, as happened during NFP. It would make more sense, too, with this "dollar bullish" sentiment after NF'nP.

I got alarms all over the charts... But we're talking about at least 4 hours to start seeing something.
  • #7,995
  • Mar 9, 2007 10:22am Mar 9, 2007 10:22am
the yen move a lot later after they announced rate hike,....so the dolar huge move related to NFP might be delayed as well....not so late i think...agree?...
its just money
  • #7,996
  • Mar 9, 2007 10:27am Mar 9, 2007 10:27am
its moving lock step with the gbp\jpy at the moment... which is in a corrective phase, its testing the 50 percent fib of that huge down move... theres a possibility for cable to test higher levels as well... ie 9480 theres alot of bearish resistance above that...
  • #7,997
  • Mar 9, 2007 10:29am Mar 9, 2007 10:29am
Quoting de123
the yen move a lot later after they announced rate hike,....so the dolar huge move related to NFP might be delayed as well....not so late i think...agree?...
It looks like bold investors jumpped back in the carries on the NFP. The risk averses are likely to do so later on, NYSE up confirmed. Buying GBPJPY and USDJPY are the logical moves. Carries and Dollar.

Dump dollar and buy cable don't make sense to me with
- USD bullish outcome from NFP
- NYSE up
- EURGBP so low - Buy EURGBP instead of going against the USD bullish direction...

This is what I'm watching, as to prevent from ending the day going, "ohhhh... I was trying to sell dollars here.. that's why I feel like an asshole now. "
  • #7,998
  • Mar 9, 2007 10:31am Mar 9, 2007 10:31am
9200 level has provided a good support zone on the pound... the key point for it to break and close above now would be 9350 level which is 38 percent retrace of downmove....
  • #7,999
  • Mar 9, 2007 10:34am Mar 9, 2007 10:34am
The problem I see is that if cable is gonna follow gbp\jpy now its moves are huge it will drag cable with it even if technically from a trend perpective we should get a move down gbp\jpy will pull cable up a weakening in this pair will bring cable down... right now the up candles look quite strong we need a bearish candle on the higher level charts to form and provide a turning point for the contiuation down on gbp\jpy then i think we will see the next leg down on cable\usd... just some thoughts and possibilites...
  • #8,000
  • Mar 9, 2007 10:36am Mar 9, 2007 10:36am
we have had a 500 point move on gbp\jpy straight up... its such a hard pair to trade on a smaller timeframe u get killed and chopped to death... u really need good timing to catch the right move and patience...
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