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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #7,941
  • Mar 9, 2007 4:47am Mar 9, 2007 4:47am
Focus comment - [VALUE IN CARRY, AND PLACING FAITH IN THE TREND] The release of non farmpayrolls is something of a lottery and could inject a lot of volatility into recently shaken markets. However, we still see the events of the last 24/48 hours as reason to see value in the sizeable pullback for the Pound.
  • #7,942
  • Mar 9, 2007 4:53am Mar 9, 2007 4:53am
Quoting cesarnc
Focus comment - [VALUE IN CARRY, AND PLACING FAITH IN THE TREND] The release of non farmpayrolls is something of a lottery and could inject a lot of volatility into recently shaken markets. However, we still see the events of the last 24/48 hours as reason to see value in the sizeable pullback for the Pound.
That's exactly how I'm seeing it. Fair value should be around 9450. Still long from yesterday. Hope to end the week with a bang!!!
  • #7,943
  • Mar 9, 2007 4:58am Mar 9, 2007 4:58am
Quoting faure
Watch what happens in the time between Industrial Production and NFP. If the price recovers after the worse-than-expected number, NFP could lead to higher prices. If not, well then the case for a move south looks pretty strong. I'm still thinking we'll head lower but I'm keeping my eye on the market for the next few hours.
That would means there are people which know the NFP number beforehand!?
  • #7,944
  • Mar 9, 2007 5:14am Mar 9, 2007 5:14am
1.9318 current price whatch for a move lower
  • #7,945
  • Mar 9, 2007 5:23am Mar 9, 2007 5:23am
Quoting katzenhai2
That would means there are people which know the NFP number beforehand!?
That's not what it means. If large market players are aquiring euro's for instance and price moves higher into the release it just shows that there are buyers there, regardless of the news. Infact they will probably use the liquidity provided by the release to buy more. The actual number is far less important than what most people realise.

Although I don't think it's entirely unfeasbale for the info to be leaked out before the announcement.
  • #7,946
  • Mar 9, 2007 5:41am Mar 9, 2007 5:41am
Quoting faure
That's not what it means. If large market players are aquiring euro's for instance and price moves higher into the release it just shows that there are buyers there, regardless of the news. Infact they will probably use the liquidity provided by the release to buy more. The actual number is far less important than what most people realise.

Although I don't think it's entirely unfeasbale for the info to be leaked out before the announcement.
or in this case dollars
  • #7,947
  • Mar 9, 2007 6:05am Mar 9, 2007 6:05am
Quoting faure
That's not what it means. If large market players are aquiring euro's for instance and price moves higher into the release it just shows that there are buyers there, regardless of the news. Infact they will probably use the liquidity provided by the release to buy more. The actual number is far less important than what most people realise.

Although I don't think it's entirely unfeasbale for the info to be leaked out before the announcement.
It's not going to be an easy trade, though.

Stock Market is dying for a good number to resume the trade. Stocks are still in good prices to be bought, but the insecurity is in the air, yet.

So, a good NFP figure - or most likely - a good revision will mean dollar bullish. In the other hand, this same good figure will mean carries bullish. So Cable may get stretched in this scenario.

I'm carrying only one tiny Cable lot long. I'll resume serious trading when we're finally way above 9400s or way below 9200 now.

Yesterday I held a long with stop at 9270 / SL 9350 to wake up and see the price hit 9330s and went down to CHEW the hell out of my stop...

I aready had a few, but now I completely lost all capacity to imagine what will be the next pip here.
  • #7,948
  • Mar 9, 2007 6:07am Mar 9, 2007 6:07am
Quoting cesarnc

I aready had a few, but now I completely lost all capacity to imagine what will be the next pip here.
This is what I mean: current price 9317 is a good price to sell or to buy?
  • #7,949
  • Mar 9, 2007 6:08am Mar 9, 2007 6:08am
Quoting 59fender
or in this case dollars
Both euro and cable have recovered after the interest rate statements and cable after IP. I'd say dollars are being sold.
  • #7,950
  • Mar 9, 2007 6:41am Mar 9, 2007 6:41am
[FOCUS COMMENT: EVER INCREASING PESSIMISM] is hitting mkts into the US NFP print. F/casts have been scaled down to a 93K consensus, with the latest from the Goldman's NFP derivates mkt some 10K less than this. But recent releases have been bedevilled by revisions to past data

European stocks down, Dow Jones Futures down, NFP down...

All set to "The Black Friday"...
  • #7,951
  • Mar 9, 2007 6:50am Mar 9, 2007 6:50am
Quoting faure
Both euro and cable have recovered after the interest rate statements and cable after IP. I'd say dollars are being sold.
i see lower highs and a lower low on the daily chart non farm could change everything but for now looks bearish
  • #7,952
  • Mar 9, 2007 7:07am Mar 9, 2007 7:07am
Cable 1.9550 today. Any takers?
  • #7,953
  • Mar 9, 2007 7:11am Mar 9, 2007 7:11am
Quoting benakavasu
Cable 1.9550 today. Any takers?
Close or top?
  • #7,954
  • Mar 9, 2007 7:12am Mar 9, 2007 7:12am
top
  • #7,955
  • Mar 9, 2007 7:13am Mar 9, 2007 7:13am
Quote
[FOCUS COMMENT: EVER INCREASING PESSIMISM] is hitting mkts into the US NFP print. F/casts have been scaled down to a 93K consensus, with the latest from the Goldman's NFP derivates mkt some 10K less than this. But recent releases have been bedevilled by revisions to past data
Is this what Faure meant with "buy the rumours and sell the news"?
  • #7,956
  • Mar 9, 2007 7:19am Mar 9, 2007 7:19am
Quoting katzenhai2
Is this what Faure meant with "buy the rumours and sell the news"?
Anyone short at the moment?? This thing looks ready to blast off like a space shuttle.
  • #7,957
  • Mar 9, 2007 7:22am Mar 9, 2007 7:22am
Quoting wep561
Anyone short at the moment?? This thing looks ready to blast off like a space shuttle.
Same here... Long, locked and loaded.
  • #7,958
  • Mar 9, 2007 7:22am Mar 9, 2007 7:22am
Will NFP report move mkt up or down ?
With patience and discipline,you move beyond the sky
  • #7,959
  • Mar 9, 2007 7:23am Mar 9, 2007 7:23am
Quoting katzenhai2
Is this what Faure meant with "buy the rumours and sell the news"?
GOD no... Not again....

But stay alert on the revision.... Shuttle may get back to Earth before hitting the stars...
  • #7,960
  • Mar 9, 2007 7:24am Mar 9, 2007 7:24am
buy stop and sell stop in tha sys...just let it go in one directon for 50 pips...at least...
its just money
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