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Lilmoe's Trading System and Analysis

  • #281
  • Nov 26, 2008 6:28am Nov 26, 2008 6:28am
Quoting NuckingFuts
"Think of each singular time frame as a musical note, when we combine multiple time frame’s together we go from the market blaring out one note noises, to the market singing us a melody and revealing the message"
How true is that after playing with this sytem, this week... Great quote
  • #282
  • Nov 26, 2008 6:32am Nov 26, 2008 6:32am
Quoting lilmoe
that made me laugh, hehehe

ok, i'll try to make things a bit more clear with a small scenario:

let's say that 4h close above gann, and we're in an uptrend. price rises high and then closes above 5sma (normal behavior of an uptrend).... the new 4h candle opens and the new momentum is pointing down, signaling a 4h 5sma retracement.

ok, so far so good... we take a look at m15 (for example), and to our surprise, we find a classic bearish divergence has formed, sweet. there's also an ascending trendline that has formed on...
Hi Lilmoe,

great post I printed it out and stick it on the wall in front of me

I'm just confusing a bit about one thing: "classic bearish divergence", I think you mean here "classic bullish divergence" (bear signal), because in babypips.com there is no "clasic bearish divergence" they have "bullish divergence" and "bearish convergence", so I think people call "bullish divergence" as "bearish divergence" as it's a bear signal, but they are the same, am I right? do you understand what I mean?
  • #283
  • Nov 26, 2008 6:36am Nov 26, 2008 6:36am
Quoting Piters


bro, any trades so far? I am sideline... don't like this.. waiting for Breakout. up or down..

btw. check my last post on AUS
just did bro

no trades here other than the remaining longs from the lows... i'll close another portion of them if we close below 4h gann

no more scalps here till we get a clear breakout...
  • #284
  • Nov 26, 2008 6:36am Nov 26, 2008 6:36am
Quoting lilmoe
ok, here's another form of setup that we MIGHT get.

. if we break below the PRICE trendline then we're looking for either a 50% or a 61.8% fibo retracement (downwards).
Yep, all clear - is that fib placed from the low of 137.66 to the high 147.97 ish ?
  • #285
  • Nov 26, 2008 6:38am Nov 26, 2008 6:38am
Quoting pepsi
Hi Lilmoe,

great post I printed it out and stick it on the wall in front of me

I'm just confusing a bit about one thing: "classic bearish divergence", I think you mean here "classic bullish divergence" (bear signal), because in babypips.com there is no "clasic bearish divergence" they have "bullish divergence" and "bearish convergence", so I think people call "bullish divergence" as "bearish divergence" as it's a bear signal, but they are the same, am I right? do you understand what I mean?
no no no, there's a bearish and a bullish classic divergence.

bullish div is when price is going down and about to reverse up (buy signal)
and bearish div is when price is going up and about to reverse down (sell signal)...

don't get confused between the two, it doesn't matter what baby pips call it, there are 2 times of classic div and 2 types of hidden div
  • #286
  • Nov 26, 2008 6:39am Nov 26, 2008 6:39am
Quoting pepsi
Hi Lilmoe,

great post I printed it out and stick it on the wall in front of me

I'm just confusing a bit about one thing: "classic bearish divergence", I think you mean here "classic bullish divergence" (bear signal), because in babypips.com there is no "clasic bearish divergence" they have "bullish divergence" and "bearish convergence", so I think people call "bullish divergence" as "bearish divergence" as it's a bear signal, but they are the same, am I right? do you understand what I mean?
regular (classic) bullish diverg = UP
regular (classic) bearish diverg = Down

hidden bullish diverg = UP
hidden bearish diverg = Down

Does that help ?
  • #287
  • Nov 26, 2008 6:40am Nov 26, 2008 6:40am
Quoting Crispin
Yep, all clear - is that fib placed from the low of 137.66 to the high 147.97 ish ?
yep

here's the chart updated (sorry forgot to place the fibs )
that scenario is good provided we do get a breakout. and since 4h gann is so close, let's wait for a 4h close below gann

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gj_cci_tl.gif Size: 30 KB
  • #288
  • Nov 26, 2008 6:43am Nov 26, 2008 6:43am
Quoting lilmoe
yep

here's the chart updated (sorry forgot to place the fibs )
that scenario is good provided we do get a breakout. and since 4h gann is so close, let's wait for a 4h close below gann
I was thinking the same too, as 4hr and 1hr Gann and 50ema's got to break yet.
  • #289
  • Nov 26, 2008 6:45am Nov 26, 2008 6:45am
Quoting Crispin
I was thinking the same too, as 4hr and 1hr Gann and 50ema's got to break yet.
also, check out how many time m30 CCI bounced from the -100 line...
  • #290
  • Nov 26, 2008 6:50am Nov 26, 2008 6:50am
ok, if m30 closes below 4h 50ema, it's a valid m30 signal with a 65% success rate.

again, it's also better to wait for a 4h close below 50ema. we can sell lower TF pullbacks afterwords.
  • #291
  • Nov 26, 2008 6:55am Nov 26, 2008 6:55am
Hi Lilmo,

I was going to go short when H1 Gann changed but as you see in my chart we have HL in price and LL in CCI which is HD bullish divergence but MACD doesn't show LL.

What should we do in this situation?

I put the black arrow for the entry and TL's are in black too

Thanks
Mike
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: lilmo.gif Size: 30 KB
Failure, is a wonderful teacher!
  • #292
  • Nov 26, 2008 6:57am Nov 26, 2008 6:57am
Quoting mike1349
Hi Lilmo,

I was going to go short when H1 Gann changed but as you see in my chart we have HL in price and LL in CCI which is HD bullish divergence but MACD doesn't show LL.

What should we do in this situation?

I put the black arrow for the entry and TL's are in black too

Thanks
Mike
i don't use CCI for confirming hidden divergence, i use MACD for that, and since MACD doesn't show then it's not
i use CCI for classic divergence and trend confirmation.
  • #293
  • Nov 26, 2008 7:02am Nov 26, 2008 7:02am
m30 candle close, this would have been a nice m30 short swing signal if it wasn't for price kissing 4h 50ema... m30 CCI is below the -100 line

if u guys were short from the top, good job
  • #294
  • Nov 26, 2008 7:09am Nov 26, 2008 7:09am
by the way, just as promised, i long GU at the open of this 1h candle (close enough to 1h 50ema) with a stop of 60 pips.

bullish HD on 1h, and price close to 50ema

hope u guys got that one.

i THINK this will surprise everyone and reverse GJ upwards lol.
  • #295
  • Nov 26, 2008 7:13am Nov 26, 2008 7:13am
Quoting lilmoe
by the way, just as promised, i long GU at the open of this 1h candle (close enough to 1h 50ema) with a stop of 60 pips.

bullish HD on 1h, and price close to 50ema

hope u guys got that one.

i THINK this will surprise everyone and reverse GJ upwards lol.
closed a 1/3 for 40 pips
rest at same SL..
  • #296
  • Nov 26, 2008 7:14am Nov 26, 2008 7:14am
+25 LONG on time frame 5 minute based on botom picking. Seen some divergence in time frame 5 minute

can you check whether I was correct for that entry
  • #297
  • Nov 26, 2008 7:16am Nov 26, 2008 7:16am
Quoting pepsi
Hi Lilmoe,

great post I printed it out and stick it on the wall in front of me

I'm just confusing a bit about one thing: "classic bearish divergence", I think you mean here "classic bullish divergence" (bear signal), because in babypips.com there is no "clasic bearish divergence" they have "bullish divergence" and "bearish convergence", so I think people call "bullish divergence" as "bearish divergence" as it's a bear signal, but they are the same, am I right? do you understand what I mean?
thanks, got it
  • #298
  • Nov 26, 2008 7:47am Nov 26, 2008 7:47am
Quoting harigp
+25 LONG on time frame 5 minute based on botom picking. Seen some divergence in time frame 5 minute

can you check whether I was correct for that entry
made the same one

hope u ran with ur profit though!!

it's a bit risky now.
  • #299
  • Nov 26, 2008 7:49am Nov 26, 2008 7:49am
Quoting lilmoe
m30 candle close, this would have been a nice m30 short swing signal if it wasn't for price kissing 4h 50ema... m30 CCI is below the -100 line

if u guys were short from the top, good job
VERY GOOD EXAMPLE OF WHY WE SHOULD SHORT SUPPORT

BAD SHORT SIGNAL, PRICE WAS VERY CLOSE TO 4H 50EMA

cable on the other hand was a long, cable goes up, GJ goes up... simple as that.
  • #300
  • Nov 26, 2008 7:49am Nov 26, 2008 7:49am
OK - I took the bounce on 30mins chart off 38% fib. 30mins also showed bullish diverg, then 5mins went back above Gann and CCI 100.

100pips now with trailing 50 SL now. 1hr candle forming piercing line pattern which will help push it higher if it holds. Close above 30min Gann and 50ema will be great.

4hr candle body also now coming back into the LTL with a strong 4hr reversal candle forming too
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