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Lilmoe's Trading System and Analysis

  • #261
  • Nov 26, 2008 2:57am Nov 26, 2008 2:57am
i believe the bullish HD on m5 didn't play out yet...
  • #262
  • Nov 26, 2008 3:09am Nov 26, 2008 3:09am
Lilmoe,
that divergence stuff is great.
I did studied it on babypips several times..great, but this is a little advanced.
Another thing is that I was afraid of last night Divergence when we reached 148,50 and that one worked good till now.
Todaz I opened one trade so far, I close it, scalping for me too risky NOW.
Very boring..today
I do not know what are we waiting..I believe again for NY.
  • #263
  • Nov 26, 2008 3:12am Nov 26, 2008 3:12am
Quoting lilmoe
i believe the bullish HD on m5 didn't play out yet...
Looks like we're getting it on the 15m too.

Is that bearish HD on the daily?

Price hit daily gann too with a hanging man candle
  • #264
  • Nov 26, 2008 3:16am Nov 26, 2008 3:16am
stopped out on that 15m long.
Enter Signature
  • #265
  • Nov 26, 2008 3:17am Nov 26, 2008 3:17am
Most definitely pound weakness since EY is staying put.
Enter Signature
  • #266
  • Nov 26, 2008 3:19am Nov 26, 2008 3:19am
Quoting capetown
Lilmoe,
that divergence stuff is great.
I did studied it on babypips several times..great, but this is a little advanced.
Another thing is that I was afraid of last night Divergence when we reached 148,50 and that one worked good till now.
Todaz I opened one trade so far, I close it, scalping for me too risky NOW.
Very boring..today
I do not know what are we waiting..I believe again for NY.
yes, very risky indeed, we're in a tight range atm, it's best to wait for a breakout....

no more scalps here before a breakout. range is just too tight.
  • #267
  • Nov 26, 2008 3:20am Nov 26, 2008 3:20am
Quoting johninthai
Most definitely pound weakness since EY is staying put.
gu wants 1h 50ema which is in good confluence with 4h 50ema... i'll try a long there with a 50 pip stop...

if i get stopped i'll wait.
  • #268
  • Nov 26, 2008 3:22am Nov 26, 2008 3:22am
+35 pip time frame 5

Thanks Lilmoe
  • #269
  • Nov 26, 2008 3:40am Nov 26, 2008 3:40am
Quoting NuckingFuts
Looks like we're getting it on the 15m too.

Is that bearish HD on the daily?

Price hit daily gann too with a hanging man candle
ok, that bullish HD is playing out now on the 5m, it bounced from 1h 50ema. was hard to get i guess. didn't get it myself.

and yes, a bearish HD is forming on the daily chart, but that would take some time to materialize. price may and should go as high as daily 50ema though... it wouldn't go that high in one shot, it might be a sloppy uptrend. however, looking for longer term shorts if we reach there is a VERY good idea
  • #270
  • Nov 26, 2008 3:40am Nov 26, 2008 3:40am
Quoting lilmoe

something worth mentioning:

I have been using this method to confirm 5sma retracements as well. i would know if (for example) a 4h 5sma retracement is due (with high probability) when momentum is pointing to the direction of 5sma AND if a lower TF is signaling a classic divergence. 4h 5sma (in this case) will hold IF 50ema of that lower timeframe (with a hidden divergence) is at the same price level of 4h 5sma. You can call this lower timeframe filtering of higher timeframe 5sma retracements.


[indent][i][u]this...
Hi Lilmoe,

I'm still having trouble with the above statement, perhaps it's just me being dumb....haha

I'm reading that a 4hr 5sma retracement will occur and remain valid for an entry long when mom is pointing to the 5sma and a lower TF is showing classic diverg. But... you also say that if the 50ema of that lower TF with hidden diverg...

That's saying that the lower TF will have both types of diverg

Maybe I'm reading it wrong
  • #271
  • Edited 3:53am Nov 26, 2008 3:41am | Edited 3:53am
long from 1hr 50ema, half off at 15m 50ema, stop moved to +20

EDIT: Should have TP at 15m 50ema, didn't see the bearish HD on the 1m
  • #272
  • Edited 4:12am Nov 26, 2008 4:01am | Edited 4:12am
Quoting Crispin
Hi Lilmoe,

I'm still having trouble with the above statement, perhaps it's just me being dumb....haha

I'm reading that a 4hr 5sma retracement will occur and remain valid for an entry long when mom is pointing to the 5sma and a lower TF is showing classic diverg. But... you also say that if the 50ema of that lower TF with hidden diverg...

That's saying that the lower TF will have both types of diverg

Maybe I'm reading it wrong
that made me laugh, hehehe

ok, i'll try to make things a bit more clear with a small scenario:

let's say that 4h close above gann, and we're in an uptrend. price rises high and then closes above 5sma (normal behavior of an uptrend).... the new 4h candle opens and the new momentum is pointing down, signaling a 4h 5sma retracement.

ok, so far so good... we take a look at m15 (for example), and to our surprise, we find a classic bearish divergence has formed, sweet. there's also an ascending trendline that has formed on m15 and was broken (bearish divergence confirmed), this would confirm a retracement to 4h 5sma.

so far so good again... we later take a look at m15 50ema, and to our bigger surprise, it's at the same level of 4h 5sma! wow, our short scalp target is 15m 50ema obvious and it gets hit (cool). surprise again!! when m15 50ema was hit a strong bullish hidden divergence had formed on the m15 chart right when 4h 5sma has finished its retracement: we add more longs to hour swing trade position at 15m 50ema (which is also 4h 5sma).

that's basicly how we add postions to our longer term swing trades, combining trend confirmation with buying retracements, short for saying buying those dips till our long term target is reached

------------------

so far, the current 4h uptrend has been really lousy, and it's subject to retracement at any time now (i don't believe so yet, unless we close below 4h gann and 1h 50ema)... but in a normal (cleaner looking uptrend), buying those 4h 5sma retracements (coinciding with lower timeframe bullish HDs at 50ema) is a really nice way of adding to your position.

the past drops after those 1000 - 1500 pip rallies since september were very good exampls of how you would add to your short position from the highs till the targets at lower levels were reached (that's the opposite of the bullish scenario earlier in this post)...

does this make better sense? plz don't feel embarrassed if there's something still not clear. i want u guys to fully understand this as it's VERY powerful in growing your account and profiting from a trade 5-10 folds. i've used it since late july, and i've doubled my account so many times with VERY minimum risk. i would love to see u guys do the same.
  • #273
  • Nov 26, 2008 4:01am Nov 26, 2008 4:01am
Quoting lilmoe
if u have multiple screens, it's always best to keep all TFs open in small windows, once u get used to it, it'll become really easy to look at all of them in a glimps
Yes I need to do that.

Forgot about the bullish HD on the 5/15m.

Should have moved the last stop to BE, now I'm missing green pips
  • #274
  • Nov 26, 2008 4:02am Nov 26, 2008 4:02am
Quoting NuckingFuts
long from 1hr 50ema, half off at 15m 50ema, stop moved to +20

EDIT: Should have TP at 15m 50ema, didn't see the bearish HD on the 1m
dang, are u stopped out already??
  • #275
  • Nov 26, 2008 4:09am Nov 26, 2008 4:09am
Cheers Lilmoe,

I'll read thru this a few times and watch it on the charts. Getting there for sure
  • #276
  • Nov 26, 2008 4:13am Nov 26, 2008 4:13am
Quoting lilmoe
dang, are u stopped out already??
Yea bud, hit my stop at 145.81 then shot off again

I'm going to go steal the mrs' 21" screen and get my old 17" outta the shed. 3 of the suckers should so the trick.

I see very clearly how you work now lilmoe.

Ingenious stuff mate.
  • #277
  • Nov 26, 2008 4:14am Nov 26, 2008 4:14am
Quoting Crispin
Cheers Lilmoe,

I'll read thru this a few times and watch it on the charts. Getting there for sure
take a look at it again, i drew a line where i went back to examine the current scenario on 4h. don't want u to confuse it with the (make believe) scenario i had above it.
  • #278
  • Nov 26, 2008 4:16am Nov 26, 2008 4:16am
Quoting NuckingFuts
Yea bud, hit my stop at 145.81 then shot off again

I'm going to go steal the mrs' 21" screen and get my old 17" outta the shed. 3 of the suckers should so the trick.

I see very clearly how you work now lilmoe.

Ingenious stuff mate.
great, but i would suggest keeping that old monitor of urs and going for a multiple monitor setup, would look better
  • #279
  • Nov 26, 2008 4:21am Nov 26, 2008 4:21am
Quoting lilmoe
great, but i would suggest keeping that old monitor of urs and going for a multiple monitor setup, would look better
Yea mate, 2 x 21" screens and an old 17" all running at once. Have a spare graphics card round here too. Will need to Google multiple monitors I guess, can't be as easy as just hooking em all up.

I read this a while back somewhere on here, boy does it apply to your system:

"Think of each singular time frame as a musical note, when we combine multiple time frame’s together we go from the market blaring out one note noises, to the market singing us a melody and revealing the message"
  • #280
  • Nov 26, 2008 4:26am Nov 26, 2008 4:26am
ok, here's another form of setup that we MIGHT get.

CCI on the 1h chart has formed two tops, one lower than the other when price had a double top at around 148, try connecting those tops and u'll get the descending trendline on CCI (we'll call the that CCI TL), that's obviously a classic bearish divergence. if we break below the PRICE trendline then we're looking for either a 50% or a 61.8% fibo retracement (downwards). we should confirm that break with a CCI close below the -100 line (or m30 CCI below -100 line, but 1h is a bit safer), for a the retracement to reach targets.

HOWEVER, if we bounce UP from here, and CCI forms another top, wait for it to actually TOUCH the CCI TL again. in lots of instances, that's a short off a good S/R level.

IF, however, price continues going up and CCI closes ABOVE that TL, we're up for more bullish action and should target higher highs after another dip

does this make sense everyone?

here's the chart:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gj_cci_tl.gif Size: 29 KB
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