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Lusan's trade Journal

  • #261
  • Oct 29, 2008 8:18am Oct 29, 2008 8:18am
Quoting maheswara
yea i was shorting euro last night , made good pips and then left one scout out ... detected a strong presence against my scout and the chart already formed a good upswing previously... took the scout out and watched the euro went 200+ pips ...
However, I saw it too late...Concluded that I have been playing too much attention to MM/MO and that a tour through chart reading was overdue. So I am back into candlesticks and Pattern for analysis of 1D and 4H TF.

Key questions: (1) What is the current trend? (2) Any warning signs of potential reversal?

Note: the TA is NOT for trading but better listening to PA music.

Regards,
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #262
  • Oct 30, 2008 9:28am Oct 30, 2008 9:28am
Profit: 1585 pips
Max win: 272 pips
Max loss: 0 pips
% win: 100 %

Trading time/session
Max: 4 hr
Min: 40 min
Trading days: 8 days

A great month...full of trading complexities...Upsized the trades so real money is coming in...my trading decisions are becoming internalized and much faster...I am more relaxed...ready to deal with tsunamis...Ohle!
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #263
  • Edited Nov 11, 2008 8:52am Nov 10, 2008 5:09pm | Edited Nov 11, 2008 8:52am

I was asked to show my latest mess. I lost a bunch of pips...5 % of account. The chart shows the trades. Enjoy it.


what really happens?
I did not pay attention when PA sayed that she was going south. I insisted on north. So she bit the heck out of me after telling twice to flip...Finally I did but it was way too late.


Lessons
1.Do not fight ever 1H Trend
2.Leverage Flip if 1H is broken
3.Keep listening to your guts.


General
1.Fearless- congratulation. I pays.
2.Terrible day that almost killed you.
3.Thanks good you flipped at the end …but it was a way too late.
4.Attention to 1H trend _place a line…if line is broken…then leverage flip.
5.Why did not flip? Because of hope. The boat came 4 times and I did not take it. (Maybe mindset affect for the the last conversation with Mamooh about flipping?! That says a lot about how delicate is mindset. Be warned!)


Edit: The flip line will be set as (1) yesterday low if long, (2) yesterday high if short. The alarm on MT will take care of the reminder. Why those? Because on their violation, then we have change the trend. Of course, I could deviate if needed.

Edit2: After thinking over, I realize that yesterday high/low are not good either cevacuse the music is always different. I will choose a place before I start the trading session as my warning line. ...and of course, it will be changing as long as the dance progress. This will be real nuisance, but I will do it until I internalize the flip warning.

Attached Images
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #264
  • Nov 11, 2008 1:32pm Nov 11, 2008 1:32pm
Today a good dance....

Anyway, I believe that the quality of my dance is highly depending on the right accessment of my bias. Today I place a pivot point indicator on the 1H and I observed reversal or consolidation whenever PA either touch or was near these points. I colored with a red elipsis these points.

Some recomend to trade bias as (1) long if PA above the pivot point and (2) short if PA below. In the case above, the first have would be wrong and the second half would be correct. So this rule is not good. However the reversal shown by the elipsis might me useful to keep in mind as potential target for profit taking or, even better, as a potential placement of the "flip line."

I will investigate it further.
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Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #265
  • Edited 12:50pm Nov 12, 2008 12:24pm | Edited 12:50pm
Look at these touches on the 15M...So TA does not work?...Who is making these chart behave this way? No me!

Look at the trading patterns...pullbacks into faiing uptrend line...

We could have say to short E/U at each of the touches and pullbacks...Actually I did the two patterns..and now I would be shorting the Euro if I were trading...If course, this is predicting...and that is not good... However, the best is to stay out...the market seems to have no clear direction yet...

Enjoy it.

Edit: why am I looking at this? Because I want to improve my TA abilities and improve biases during my dances. The fact that I beginning to see these patterns is good, real good.

Warning: When dancing, my 5M is completely naked...I just manage the positions...Today I entered at the end to the last touche and I collected 210 pips at the bottom. Exposure was minimum because of was just desceding...it felt good, real good.
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Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #266
  • Nov 13, 2008 10:36am Nov 13, 2008 10:36am
I like the 10M chart, but you have proven that the 15M works well, too. Yes, it does work. It also a "safe" place to enter your trade, if and only if, you agree to exit if that trendline is breached. The trend will rule all trades until it is breached, then a prudent trader sits back and waits for the next trend to develop.

Quoting luSan
Look at these touches on the 15M...So TA does not work?...Who is making these chart behave this way? No me!

Look at the trading patterns...pullbacks into faiing uptrend line...

We could have say to short E/U at each of the touches and pullbacks...Actually I did the two patterns..and now I would be shorting the Euro if I were trading...If course, this is predicting...and that is not good... However, the best is to stay out...the market seems to have no clear direction yet...

Enjoy it.

Edit: why am I looking at this? Because I want to improve...
  • #267
  • Nov 13, 2008 1:00pm Nov 13, 2008 1:00pm
Why trade the CAD? I like it because it can move when other currencies are quiet. It will move when others are not. I was in the GBP/$ and am now out for a while.

Quoting luSan
These would be the trading biases that I found in your chart. The first wait could be taken as a short in a countertrend move; the second wait is another counter but more risky and I would stay out and the last wait is now...I would just wait for either a return to the uptrend line or a breakout. These are not trading signal but bias direction for dancing. Of course...they could be use for overnight trading if we wish it so.

Why do you trade U/CAD?

Warning: Remember that I am a just forex student. So I ask a million questions,etc. I give no...
  • #268
  • Nov 13, 2008 2:24pm Nov 13, 2008 2:24pm
A nice revesal...is it true?
Home come 4H was talking about it several hours before Bush speech?...

I find it amazing that the charts did not lie! That is something to explore further.
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Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #269
  • Nov 13, 2008 6:02pm Nov 13, 2008 6:02pm
Look at this chart....Inside trend...Is this a coincidence? Is this norn-linear cmnputer trading?...I want to know...
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Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #270
  • Nov 13, 2008 6:15pm Nov 13, 2008 6:15pm
Hi luSan,
This is the power of doing TA correctly. It is something I spend a lot of time doing each day in my trading, among many other things. Trend lines on 30/60 are much stronger than lower compressions, and 4H are stronger still. It is one of the things that I sometimes see that naked traders doing...trading right into a trendwall that will cause real problems.

This is what I call the math of the current move, and is valid as long as the line is not breached. Good trend wall traders have a 65-70% success rate, but other information can be added to improve that.

I have some friends who have studied this extensively and I have to tell you, it happens all the time. Your eye will start to see the other relationships that the trend lines create over time.

Quoting luSan
Look at this chart....Inside trend...Is this a coincidence? Is this norn-linear cmnputer trading?...I want to know...
  • #271
  • Nov 13, 2008 6:39pm Nov 13, 2008 6:39pm
Lusan,

What you are seeing is what I call a cut through trendline, and the rudimentary basics of action reaction lines, notice the distance price falls below the line and compare that to the distance price travels above.

You're geting into action/reaction theory and eventually the work of a man named Dr. Andrews, who the median line or pitchfork was named after him.

This is getting into predictive analysis.

fwiw,

a
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  • #272
  • Edited 7:19pm Nov 13, 2008 6:57pm | Edited 7:19pm
Rapa, thanks for the info. I will keep an eye on these things

Aurexis, thanks for pointing out to Dr. Andrews. That is something new for me. Predictive? Maybe if we used for trading. I will watch about. When I dance, I paid no attention to any trend line nor other similar things, but lately I began caring a lot about trend analysis to help choosing the bias for the dance and to define the "flip moment." I will never dance against 1H; it is too painfull

Regards,
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #273
  • Nov 13, 2008 7:08pm Nov 13, 2008 7:08pm
luSan,
Please, just don't dance into a 1H trendwall, but do dance away from it, ok? It's always good to know where the dance floor starts and ends.

Quoting luSan
Rapa, thanks for the info. I will keep an eye on these things

Aurexis, thanks for pointing out to Dr. Andrews. That is something new for me. Predictive? Maybe if we used for trading. I will watch about. When I dance, I paid no attention to any trend line nor other similar things, but lately I began caring a lot about trend analysis to help choosing the bias for the dance and to define the "flip moment." I will not never dance against 1H; it is too painfull

Regards,
  • #274
  • Edited 8:18am Nov 14, 2008 7:24am | Edited 8:18am
Quoting rapaduski1
luSan,
Please, just don't dance into a 1H trendwall, but do dance away from it, ok? It's always good to know where the dance floor starts and ends.
Rap,

what do you mean with that? Could you explain it, please?

Regards

Piksy
  • #275
  • Edited 9:54am Nov 14, 2008 9:26am | Edited 9:54am
Now I kill time drawing lines on the 15M chart. It is a lot of fun and scare the heck out of me. The bounces from place to place makes prediction very tempting. However note that the behavior is dynamic. See that we have 2 an overlapping of 2 bear flags. That is really cute...Is it that there are 2 set of bear/bull and that the the bears are winning?...I do not know...but it is interesting to watch it.

What would I trade right now? We this chart I would say that my bias is none- I would not dance...been Friday: I would go and read the paper...If I had to trade I would sell scalp and ready to pull the plug.

Enjoy.

Comment: The thick blue line=day pivot point. Note that big trader seem to like it very much. I think I should like it too.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 15M 1.jpg Size: 47 KB
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #276
  • Edited 5:01pm Nov 22, 2008 11:44am | Edited 5:01pm
"How to find the famous bias for dance trading? When to pull the plug? When to realize that previous TA analysis was wrong?" I dedicated that last 3 hours reconsidering them. Why?...Risk managment, risk management..

The strategy presented in the chart worked for at 96 % of the 31 ramdonless selected long and short cases...In the missing 4 %, I would be out of the market and having coffee...

After the 2nd touch is a good idea to pay carefull attention to any candle reversal in 1H...If so pull the plug...do not wait until the red line is crossed...trades must be managed!

Hard to believe...But this thing works...Notice this IS NOT trendline trading..the TL is used to define the dance floor...I will explore a similar bias 4H strategy.

I am not teaching anything but sharing my saturday morning studies with anyone that might have similar ideas.

Enjoy it.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Trading thoughts.jpg Size: 67 KB
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #277
  • Nov 22, 2008 4:42pm Nov 22, 2008 4:42pm
Hi luSan,
I just read the post in your thread and agree with your analysis. In the chart you posted, the bias is up and you are looking for buy opportunities on the 15M chart, passing on anything that looks like a sell. (Notice, too, that the doji candles on the 1H charts give clear signals that indecision has entered the market). The large black candle that breaches the trend line tells you that the trend is no longer valid, and you must wait for a new trend to develop and to be confirmed. If you extend your analysis, the subsequent down trend just builds a stronger case for your approach. It is a simple but million dollar rule: once you have that trend line established, always trade away from it and NEVER trade towards it.

I spend more time drawing and erasing trend lines (on multiple time compressions) than anything else. As a trader, its just part of the job. Hope you are having a good weekend. I am watching Penn St beat Michigan St while enjoying your post.

Quoting luSan
"How to find the famous bias for dance trading? When to pull the plug? When to realize that previous TA analysis was wrong?" I dedicated that last 3 hours reconsidering them. Why?...Risk managment, risk management..

The strategy presented in the chart worked for at 96 % of the 31 ramdonless selected long and short cases...In the missing 4 %, I would be our fo the market having coffee...

After the 2nd touch is a good idea to pay carefull attention to any candle reversal in 1H...If so pull the plug...do not wait until the red line is crossed...trades...
  • #278
  • Nov 22, 2008 8:39pm Nov 22, 2008 8:39pm
Quoting rapaduski1
Hi luSan,
I just read the post in your thread and agree with your analysis. In the chart you posted, the bias is up and you are looking for buy opportunities on the 15M chart, passing on anything that looks like a sell.
and timing with the 5M

Quote
(Notice, too, that the doji candles on the 1H charts give clear signals that indecision has entered the market). The large black candle that breaches the trend line tells you that the trend is no longer valid, and you must wait for a new trend to develop and to be confirmed. If you extend your analysis, the subsequent down trend just builds a stronger case for your approach.
Currently working on 1H candle reversals...why? I do not trust the published information about it.

Quote
It is a simple but million dollar rule: once you have that trend line established, always trade away from it and NEVER trade towards it.

Yes...that is a masterkey concept.

Regards
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #279
  • Nov 24, 2008 11:31am Nov 24, 2008 11:31am
This weekend I passed several hours checking on 1H reversals. I wanted to insure myself that 1H reversals were accurate..because they would help me with flips and to see better the beginning and end of the 1H bias.

Yes they work very well..but they have 2 problems...(1) if low volalatity then they are not good, (2) they are not good if against 4H trend...I am looking into this problem.

Because forex is so volatile, I take reversal as the break on the closing and open of minors.

Candlesticks!...Terrible...terrible...that is was I found...very unrealiables... It did not find them good enough to give me a good trading edge.

Regarding 1H reversal..here are my thoughts....Although real, the 2 cases are best cases of good volatility.

Note: I am not teaching anything here. Just watch out with those reversals during the dance.
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Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #280
  • Nov 24, 2008 5:00pm Nov 24, 2008 5:00pm
Hi luSan,
I take it you are trying to work through an approach to determine trend changes to help you with trading flips. Is that correct? Are you interested in a discussion on this topic? I do not want to add something here that is not what you are looking for. I also try to make a distinction between reversals and retracements, but that may not be what you are interested in either.

Quoting luSan
This weekend I passed several hours checking on 1H reversals. I wanted to insure myself that 1H reversals were accurate..because they would help me with flips and to see better the beginning and end of the 1H bias.

Yes they work very well..but they have 2 problems...(1) if low volalatity then they are not good, (2) they are not good if against 4H trend...I am looking into this problem.

Because forex is so volatile, I take reversal as the break on the closing and open of minors.

Candlesticks!...Terrible...terrible...that is was I found...very...
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