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EURUSD

  • #16,861
  • Jul 30, 2008 7:10am Jul 30, 2008 7:10am
1 = today
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GSD6.JPG Size: 48 KB
  • #16,862
  • Jul 30, 2008 7:12am Jul 30, 2008 7:12am
Back to business..

For newbees..how to trade upcoming NFP News & bit later Oil Inv.

Simple...DON'T..

IMO..do not "gamble" on forecasts...watch market reaction...wait for 2nd wave when market choosing final direction, then enter upon...better make less profitable pips..then loose a lot on a gamble...

Just my 2 cents...
  • #16,863
  • Jul 30, 2008 7:13am Jul 30, 2008 7:13am
Quoting Shadowfx
Good morning DE123,

Any "orders" for today......hows the bike...
TIP:
It rides better "downhill"...(read bearish) then "uphill" (read bullish)...called gravity...
the bike is a downhill bike....so yeah...it betters rides down...
its just money
  • #16,864
  • Jul 30, 2008 7:21am Jul 30, 2008 7:21am
Quoting Shadowfx
Back to business..

For newbees..how to trade upcoming NFP News & bit later Oil Inv.

Simple...DON'T..

IMO..do not "gamble" on forecasts...watch market reaction...wait for 2nd wave when market choosing final direction, then enter upon...better make less profitable pips..then loose a lot on a gamble...

Just my 2 cents...

Very appropriate advice, but your link to the ADP chart was far more compelling. Thanks for sharing.
Up or down, gimme a ticket
  • #16,865
  • Jul 30, 2008 7:21am Jul 30, 2008 7:21am
Whoa.. now those are positive numbers, strangely anough. Should push it down strong allright. I'll buy some in the 530-540 area if it gets there..

Quoting Shadowfx
Simple...DON'T..

IMO..do not "gamble" on forecasts...watch market reaction...wait for 2nd wave when market choosing final direction, then enter upon...better make less profitable pips..then loose a lot on a gamble...

Just my 2 cents...
Great advice.
On the path to Enrichment.
  • #16,866
  • Jul 30, 2008 7:23am Jul 30, 2008 7:23am
Quoting Jurrasic
Whoa.. now those are positive numbers, strangely anough. Should push it down strong allright. I'll buy some in the 530-540 area if it gets there..

Whoa is right. Glad I'm a short term short.
  • #16,867
  • Jul 30, 2008 7:28am Jul 30, 2008 7:28am
As I said earlier, the NFP on Friday should be very strong and the ADP numbers today certainly sustain that.

So the stock market normaly will raise in anticipation putting pressure on EURUSD and raising USDJPY. Of course if this will happen then on Friday we will have profit taking and this way EURUSD will witness a correction. But until then it should push bellow 1,5551 and maybe even touch 1,54.
  • #16,868
  • Jul 30, 2008 7:29am Jul 30, 2008 7:29am
1.556 to be tested now ...lets see....Down trend is strong...but so is resistance...
  • #16,869
  • Jul 30, 2008 7:30am Jul 30, 2008 7:30am
Quoting Shadowfx
Back to business..

For newbees..how to trade upcoming NFP News & bit later Oil Inv.

Simple...DON'T..

IMO..do not "gamble" on forecasts...watch market reaction...wait for 2nd wave when market choosing final direction, then enter upon...better make less profitable pips..then loose a lot on a gamble...

Just my 2 cents...
Quick question Shadow. I was just wondering...in your experience...when you see a sharp push down like what we just saw--we know that there was a lot of panic and selling of the Euro. It was a lot of momentum down.

On average though..when you see a sharp swing down or up or whatever by news..would you say that on average (the short term trend--approx 1hr) will follow that swing? (in the current case, a big swing down).
  • #16,870
  • Jul 30, 2008 7:30am Jul 30, 2008 7:30am
Quoting seesaw
Whoa is right. Glad I'm a short term short.
WOW, i cant believe how good those numbers were! Now we will see whats next, is the eurusd going to be bearish?
  • #16,871
  • Jul 30, 2008 7:30am Jul 30, 2008 7:30am
Quoting freetrader
1 = today
That picture/model looks interesting. where can I find such analisys ? Thanks!
  • #16,872
  • Jul 30, 2008 7:31am Jul 30, 2008 7:31am
Pre-market players are strong stocks now. Also gold down over $1.00 right now. Looks good for shorts. Don't know how much oil can affect this today.
Redefining Reality
  • #16,873
  • Jul 30, 2008 7:36am Jul 30, 2008 7:36am
Common euro, 535 and I push the buy, mucho pips! Common!
On the path to Enrichment.
  • #16,874
  • Jul 30, 2008 7:36am Jul 30, 2008 7:36am
Quoting altrader
Quick question Shadow. I was just wondering...in your experience...when you see a sharp push down like what we just saw--we know that there was a lot of panic and selling of the Euro. It was a lot of momentum down.

On average though..when you see a sharp swing down or up or whatever by news..would you say that on average (the short term trend--approx 1hr) will follow that swing? (in the current case, a big swing down).
Quick, short but not complete answer, cause it depends on a lot more...market sentiment and how close you are to major up or downside resistance..and if there is more news to follow...will have final impact on short term trend
  • #16,875
  • Jul 30, 2008 7:37am Jul 30, 2008 7:37am
If you were a bull would you panic right now and what would that do to the price. Or do you wait for oil and hope?
Redefining Reality
  • #16,876
  • Jul 30, 2008 7:39am Jul 30, 2008 7:39am
Quoting Shadowfx
Quick, short but not complete answer, cause it depends on a lot more...market sentiment and how close you are to major up or downside resistance..and if there is more news to follow...will have final impact on short term trend
Thanks Shadowfx
  • #16,877
  • Jul 30, 2008 7:39am Jul 30, 2008 7:39am
Quoting piptechnician
If you were a bull would you panic right now and what would that do to the price. Or do you wait for oil and hope?
No. The lower trend line of this whole dowtrend from 1.6 and the Daily 100 ema and a smaller upwards Daily channel lower trend line (from about the past 2 months) all pass around 5530. So no reason for panic, reason for buying when it gets closer, my personal opinion of course.
On the path to Enrichment.
  • #16,878
  • Jul 30, 2008 7:40am Jul 30, 2008 7:40am
Minimum 200pips short this time ?
set for myself tp 1.5364 to 1.5302 for now .

fontu
Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #16,879
  • Jul 30, 2008 7:40am Jul 30, 2008 7:40am
Quoting coldrecs
That picture/model looks interesting. where can I find such analisys ? Thanks!
If you have a statistical analysis package, or you can use www.r-project.org an open source statistical analysis package R is a free software environment for statistical computing and graphics. It compiles and runs on a wide variety of UNIX platforms, Windows and MacOS. I used splus. Then you can obtain your data and build the ARIMA model regressing 20 periods to generate the chart with a 5 day forecast window.
  • #16,880
  • Jul 30, 2008 7:43am Jul 30, 2008 7:43am
NFP came not only better than forcasted, but also in the negative to negative number! What longs on EUR????

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