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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #57,541
  • Mar 8, 2008 4:03am Mar 8, 2008 4:03am
Quoting TraderJR
oops, sorry

thanks

please note that i post example before.
up trend the SL will be below the support line with 15 pip
down trend the SL will be above the resistant lint with 15 pip

this is my way someone else mabey have better than that
  • #57,542
  • Mar 8, 2008 4:45am Mar 8, 2008 4:45am
Quoting deboooo2005
Good Day

i want to share my Computer Wallpaper
Actually thats a pretty good idea
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #57,543
  • Mar 8, 2008 10:16am Mar 8, 2008 10:16am
10-3-2008
Attached Image
  • #57,544
  • Mar 8, 2008 12:17pm Mar 8, 2008 12:17pm
Quoting deboooo2005
Good Day

i want to share my Computer Wallpaper
My desktop now
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: desktop.jpg Size: 127 KB
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #57,545
  • Edited 2:46pm Mar 8, 2008 12:36pm | Edited 2:46pm
Quoting Abuawad
Definitely yes I don’t place any trading order unless I determent the stop loss. And most of the time my stop loss is the previews resistant or support line +15 pip
Ex.
In yesterday analysis 7-3-2008
We have these numbers:
Unknown area limits:
2.0110 and 2.0070
With trend targets:
2.0178, 2.0260 and 2.0340
Against trend targets:
2.0049, 1.9916 and 1.9949
Support level:
1.9917 , 1.9743 and 1.9632
Resistant level:
2.0202, 2.0313 and 2.0487

And the scenario of trading yesterday as the following:
Cable test the up limit of the unknown area at 2.0110 “you can use the 1H or 4H chart for confirm the testing result the candle open above this value”. I place the long position at this point with SL 2.0055 and TP at 2.0178.
Before the price test the first target I notes the perfect butterfly pattern on the 30 min, aiming to 2.0195 as a target then I change the TP to the first resistant which is 2.0202 and the SL to 2.0095.
Cable test the target at 2.0178 and move in very strong uptrend. I change the SL to 2.0155 and keep the TP at 2.0202. finally cable hit 2.0202 with +92 pip.
The more you open up on your system the more I like it Nizar . You know its great we have guys here who are open on their method of trading rather than I can not tell you my golden method because its cost me X much but this will happen, or just plain UP or DOWN.
I take my hat off to you
To quote Nav
The universal law of helping others will lead to bigger success, be lucky my friend
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #57,546
  • Mar 8, 2008 1:01pm Mar 8, 2008 1:01pm
Quoting TraderJR
Thanks.

Is there a good "Gartley etc. for dummies" I can d/ld?

TIA

Article:

Currencies have long been praised for their capacity to trend,
but in today’s market, an objective countertrend technique
might be a forex trader’s most valuable asset.


There is a market adage that describes the modus operandi of almost
all currency traders: “The trend is your friend.”
Granted, that is often the case. However, to make it more truthful, we have
added the corollary “unless the trend is about to end.” This qualifier has ever
been more appropriate for the forex market than in recent times.



Markets will trend, but research proves this is the exception rather than the


rule. Overall, markets trend 25 to 30 percent of the time, which means 70 to 75


percent of the time they move within defined trading ranges.

Historically, currency markets were more likely to trend than traditional

commodities, financial, or stock markets because policy decisions made by
central banks were coordinated, and these collective actions influenced currency relationships
for extended periods of time. In recent years, however, that interdependency has diminished
and currency price behavior has mimicked that of other conventional markets.
Psychologically, it is simple to buy an advancing market and sell a declining
market. Most traders attempt to operate in harmony with the trend, and
the news associated with such price movement serves to reinforce that tendency
and provide an excuse for its perpetuation. This is simply human
nature –– all of us want to be on the side of a winner, and the news accompanying


a trend is written to justify its existence. Eventually, however, the trend exhausts itself and,

almost by default, it is reversed or, at least, interrupted.



Typically, trading desks supply needed liquidity by positioning themselves against the prevailing trend.

Their collective countertrend activities are responsible for price exhaustion periods.




Operating against the trend is often difficult because it contradicts human nature.
Here we forecasting trends instead of following them.



In the chart below, AB=CD is an important player here in this pattern. Read my post about phycology of this pattern here #54240 .


This is an exelent article about AB=CD. http://www.tradingtutor.com/free-articles/AB=CD_Pattern.pdf


It is important if you are going to trade the Garley pattern to be familiar with AB=CD pattern.


Check chart below.


I hope this could clarify some question asked here in this thread before.


Have a nice weekend to all you, TRADERS.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Gartley explanation.png Size: 318 KB
  • #57,547
  • Mar 8, 2008 1:56pm Mar 8, 2008 1:56pm
So the garley formation is a bullish sign ?...damn i thought it was bearish can someone please clarify this...
  • #57,548
  • Mar 8, 2008 2:25pm Mar 8, 2008 2:25pm
Quoting nAVIN2007
So the garley formation is a bullish sign ?...damn i thought it was bearish can someone please clarify this...
nAVIN, it is easy. Gartleys and Buttlerflys are or bullish or bearish.

W form is bearish

M form is bullish

now read my post before to see how they works.
  • #57,549
  • Mar 8, 2008 2:38pm Mar 8, 2008 2:38pm
Quoting Bones
The more you open up on your system the more I like it Riyadh. You know its great we have guys here who are open on their method of trading rather than I can not tell you my golden method because its cost me X much but this will happen, or just plain UP or DOWN.
I take my hat off to you
To quote Nav
The universal law of helping others will lead to bigger success, be lucky my friend
thanks, i notes you say riyadh two time, its not my name it's the city i live in ,
my name is Nizar Abuawad
  • #57,550
  • Mar 8, 2008 2:43pm Mar 8, 2008 2:43pm
Oh sorry bud my mistake,lol

Im going to change it
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #57,551
  • Mar 8, 2008 2:44pm Mar 8, 2008 2:44pm
Quoting nAVIN2007
So the garley formation is a bullish sign ?...damn i thought it was bearish can someone please clarify this...
The daily formation on GU is bearish navin, but wait till it reaches 61.8% fibo b4 shorting
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #57,552
  • Mar 8, 2008 4:00pm Mar 8, 2008 4:00pm
For three weeks we have travelled at a constant speed up and last week we broke out of an 8 week range. I have noticed we are in a rising channel and that the high of last week stopped to the pip at the top of that channel.

Last week I said drop before the rise and I have to say the same again. There is a pin bar on the 4 hr I posted above. I anticipate price to close on Sunday between 2.0139 -2.0115.Which would also create another bearish pin on the daily and give a close above my rising weekly trend line.
I anticipate the drop to bottom out at 1.9970 and will have a buy set up just above there.1.9970 is 50% retrace of last week.
My weekly target as posted a few weeks ago looks spookily possible as it sits right at the top of my channel and is the 150 fib projection of last week.

I have opened a short around 2.0160 (target around 2.0020 to be safe) as I could see the rejection of that weekly R2 pivot last thing Friday.

If price dropped to 1.9970 and then rises to 2.0475 that would give the same range as last week.
All this seems very simple and I would be amazed if it were right but the last 2 weeks it has been bob on
As always I will trade what I see.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #57,553
  • Mar 8, 2008 4:11pm Mar 8, 2008 4:11pm
The chances of a reversal to the downtrend increases significantly in the zone, 2.0465 and 2.0650.
  • #57,554
  • Mar 8, 2008 4:26pm Mar 8, 2008 4:26pm
Ok I have checked my daily.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #57,555
  • Edited 6:04pm Mar 8, 2008 4:56pm | Edited 6:04pm
Quoting Abuawad
thanks, i notes you say riyadh two time, its not my name it's the city i live in ,
my name is Nizar Abuawad
BTW Nizar, is that your real pic? - just curious, 4x_Trader whose real name is Valentino and who is a guy, often used female avatars (damn attractive ones too) tho currently he uses Einstein.

cheers
Darkness lies one inch ahead..
  • #57,556
  • Mar 8, 2008 5:07pm Mar 8, 2008 5:07pm
nAVIN, did you understand now what is a bullish and bearish Gartley?

cheers
  • #57,557
  • Mar 8, 2008 5:28pm Mar 8, 2008 5:28pm
Quoting Carrera

It is important if you are going to trade the Garley pattern to be familiar with AB=CD pattern.


Check chart below.


I hope this could clarify some question asked here in this thread before.


Have a nice weekend to all you, TRADERS.

Thanks for this info, Carrera.

Proportions in Gartleys etc are stricly defined, do you have an MT4 indicator which automatically checks and identifies these? I have seen a couple for sale but links were dead/authors did not reply.

TIA
Darkness lies one inch ahead..
  • #57,558
  • Mar 8, 2008 5:47pm Mar 8, 2008 5:47pm
Quoting TraderJR
Thanks for this info, Carrera.

Proportions in Gartleys etc are stricly defined, do you have an MT4 indicator which automatically checks and identifies these? I have seen a couple for sale but links were dead/authors did not reply.

TIA
No, I don't.
This is like go to school, we have sophysticate calculators and hand computers, but the teacher said " no calculator allowed for math class".
So you have to learn manually like school. lol

I only have a tool in my platform that give me the fib ratios. But not indicator exactly.
  • #57,559
  • Edited 10:30pm Mar 8, 2008 5:59pm | Edited 10:30pm
Quoting Carrera
a trend is written to justify its existence. Eventually, however, the trend exhausts itself and, almost by default, it is reversed or, at least, interrupted.
GU rose almost 5¢ in the past 3 days or ~160 pips/day. You'd have to be an extreme optimist to think that that could be sustained.

The blue trendline however is a much more sustainable 36 pips/day. While the trend remains intact it limits downside. e.g. tomorrow, price can fall no further than 19830.

If you look at the trend started Feb20, and the three big green candles 1-2-3, between 1 and 2 there was only a 2 day pause and the bodies of the candles on those days trended updwards. Between 2 and 3 there is a 5 day pause and the candle bodies are in a horizontal channel. This suggests the trend is running out of puff and that the next pause could be a substantial retracement. The hanging man at the top of the uptrend supports this idea.

Of course some external event could occur and regalvanise the uptrend, making the above so much BS..

Interested to hear your take on this..

PS The big downtrend from 09Nov07 thru 22Jan08 averaged 34 pips/day
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 080307 Strong GBP-USD D1 uptrend about to interrupt.gif Size: 69 KB
Darkness lies one inch ahead..
  • #57,560
  • Mar 8, 2008 6:15pm Mar 8, 2008 6:15pm
Quoting Carrera
No, I don't.
This is like go to school, we have sophysticate calculators and hand computers, but the teacher said " no calculator allowed for math class".
So you have to learn manually like school. lol
But once you've mastered manual calculation, there's every reason to increase your productivity and not waste time like that any more, and use calculators/spreadsheets.

The Gartley etc. indicators I saw looked interesting because they would measure/check ratios, identify candidate types and enable predictions of where the D point would occur.

Quote
I only have a tool in my platform that give me the fib ratios. But not indicator exactly.

Which platform do you use?

Some ppl criticise Gartley etc. as being no more accurate than conventional TA - your comment?

cheers
Darkness lies one inch ahead..
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