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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #57,521
  • Mar 7, 2008 1:52pm Mar 7, 2008 1:52pm
Quoting notme32
So when buterfly come........ what to do ?

http://www.harmonictrader.com/price_patterns.htm

The Ideal Butterfly Pattern



http://www.harmonictrader.com/bflypicre.jpg
Bullish




http://www.harmonictrader.com/bflybullre.jpg
Bearish
http://www.harmonictrader.com/bflybearre.jpg


The structure of the Butterfly pattern was discovered by Bryce Gilmore. In my experience, I believe an Ideal Butterfly Pattern, which requires specific Fibonacci in the structure - including a mandatory 0.786 retracement of the XA leg as the B point - offers more precise Potential Reversal Zones (PRZ). Also, the Butterfly pattern must include an AB=CD pattern to be a valid signal. Frequently, the AB=CD pattern will possess an extended CD leg that is 1.27 or 1.618 of the AB leg. Although this is an important requirement for a valid trade signal, the most critical number in the pattern is the 1.27 XA leg. The XA calculation is usually complemented by an extreme (2.00, 2.24, 2.618) BC projection. These numbers create a specific Potential Reversal Zone (PRZ) that can yield powerful reversals, especially when the pattern is in all-time (new highs/new lows) price levels.

  • #57,522
  • Mar 7, 2008 1:53pm Mar 7, 2008 1:53pm
Quoting nAVIN2007
right now the way it looks to me ...see red trendline..we are slightly above it so hopefully it will act as support..if we open on sunday and it bearish and it breaks the red trendline we likely go down towards the green trendline otherwise we should move upwards (see chart)
either way its a great place to enter a trade cause theres support/resistance

The red trendline actual is the same as the 50% fibb fan line....its a very important support/resistance...anything can happen retrace or move toward upwards, we need confirmation on sunday as to the direction to go ...what do u guys think?

and yes mike definately see your point but i think its going to take a while b4 the likes of me develop my skills so im able to just that...but working towards it buddy
It takes nothing to develop your skills to get there, if your trading lower timeframes efficiently (which is much harder than higher timeframes) then you already have the skill. Just believe in yourself and your positions and your set.
I'm looking to see a retracement down to the 1.99's next week too. I'm not sure exactly where until my weeklies close, but to me, that would be an excellent buying area for another run up.

Nice analysis btw!
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #57,523
  • Edited 2:12pm Mar 7, 2008 1:58pm | Edited 2:12pm
Thanks............

Bulish ? , Let see..............

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: but.gif Size: 25 KB


I thought is Gartley.............. Bearish ?........
I Deeply Love My Virtual Life In Virtual World , RLC
  • #57,524
  • Mar 7, 2008 1:59pm Mar 7, 2008 1:59pm
Quoting nAVIN2007
right now the way it looks to me ...see red trendline..we are slightly above it so hopefully it will act as support..if we open on sunday and it bearish and it breaks the red trendline we likely go down towards the green trendline otherwise we should move upwards (see chart)
either way its a great place to enter a trade cause theres support/resistance

The red trendline actual is the same as the 50% fibb fan line....its a very important support/resistance...anything can happen retrace or move toward upwards, we need confirmation on sunday as to the direction to go ...what do u guys think?

and yes mike definately see your point but i think its going to take a while b4 the likes of me develop my skills so im able to just that...but working towards it buddy
Nice work Nav. You really are coming on, that really steep rising TL under the last three days; price will close through it removing the support worth watching ,you might then get a flick up to the underside and then down. Just one scenario that’s all.

On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #57,525
  • Mar 7, 2008 2:00pm Mar 7, 2008 2:00pm
I will m8...I going to go live trading as of tuesday most likely i need to just settle down and not lose money to start with and hopefully i can trade with a much broader view....I am working on achieving trades just like yourself (mike, tony, Abuawad and other experts)
Thx guys for the comment on analysis...comments like this does wonders for confidence
  • #57,526
  • Mar 7, 2008 2:35pm Mar 7, 2008 2:35pm
Quoting Abuawad
7-3-2008
from 2.0110 to the first target at 2.0178 then the first resistance at 2.0202
+92 pips.
see you next week
  • #57,527
  • Mar 7, 2008 2:45pm Mar 7, 2008 2:45pm
Hey Riyadh you need to make 8 posts quick im moving ahead of you my friend
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #57,528
  • Mar 7, 2008 3:02pm Mar 7, 2008 3:02pm
Quoting abuzant
Here's how it looks from my binoculars

Attachment
Hey ,its difficult to tell but are they all sells in the middle stop over high, TP at late 19000,s ,if so I like your thinking. Though I am not sure about the 19000s ,I am thinking 2.0015 as the bottom.
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #57,529
  • Mar 7, 2008 4:28pm Mar 7, 2008 4:28pm
Quoting Bones
Hey Riyadh you need to make 8 posts quick im moving ahead of you my friend
It’s not matter the quantities , but the content :
  • #57,530
  • Mar 7, 2008 6:56pm Mar 7, 2008 6:56pm
Quoting Carrera
TraderJR, actually is a Buttlerfly. Point D is hier than X.

cheers
Thanks.

Is there a good "Gartley etc. for dummies" I can d/ld?

TIA
Darkness lies one inch ahead..
  • #57,531
  • Mar 7, 2008 6:59pm Mar 7, 2008 6:59pm
Quoting notme32
Thanks............

Bulish ? , Let see..............

Attachment

I thought is Gartley.............. Bearish ?........
Yeah, if someone would care to explain this, I for one would be glad to hear it

TIA
Darkness lies one inch ahead..
  • #57,532
  • Edited 11:56pm Mar 7, 2008 7:52pm | Edited 11:56pm
Quoting Abuawad
Here is a summary of February performance according to my analysis starting from February 13, 2008 in this post please note that there are some missing dates, these dates one of two one of my day-off or I forgot to post the result. But for March I’ll post all the result for the analysis that I’ll post.

13-2-2008 +105 pip
14-2-2008 +67 pip
15-2-2008 +137 pip
18-2-2008 +109 pip
20-2-2008 +67 pip
22-2-2008 +45 pip
25-2-2008 +91 pip
26-2-2008 +120 pip
27-2-2008 +71 pip
28-2-2008 +21 pip
29-2-2008 +61 pip

Which make the total : + 894 pip
Abuawad

Average 81 pips per day over the 11 days shown (no losses also, all wins), a very satisfactory result. Your method must have improved over time, or you have got better at doing it? How much discretionary input is there in your method?

TIA
Darkness lies one inch ahead..
  • #57,533
  • Mar 7, 2008 9:16pm Mar 7, 2008 9:16pm
Quoting Abuawad
from 2.0110 to the first target at 2.0178 then the first resistance at 2.0202
+92 pips.
see you next week
Abuawad, do you use stops? If so, what?

TIA
Darkness lies one inch ahead..
  • #57,534
  • Mar 7, 2008 11:48pm Mar 7, 2008 11:48pm
Quoting TraderJR
Abuawad, do you use stops? If so, what?

TIA
Definitely yes I don’t place any trading order unless I determent the stop loss. And most of the time my stop loss is the previews resistant or support line +15 pip
Ex.
In yesterday analysis 7-3-2008
We have these numbers:
Unknown area limits:
2.0110 and 2.0070
With trend targets:
2.0178, 2.0260 and 2.0340
Against trend targets:
2.0049, 1.9916 and 1.9949
Support level:
1.9917 , 1.9743 and 1.9632
Resistant level:
2.0202, 2.0313 and 2.0487

And the scenario of trading yesterday as the following:
Cable test the up limit of the unknown area at 2.0110 “you can use the 1H or 4H chart for confirm the testing result the candle open above this value”. I place the long position at this point with SL 2.0055 and TP at 2.0178.
Before the price test the first target I notes the perfect butterfly pattern on the 30 min, aiming to 2.0195 as a target then I change the TP to the first resistant which is 2.0202 and the SL to 2.0095.
Cable test the target at 2.0178 and move in very strong uptrend. I change the SL to 2.0155 and keep the TP at 2.0202. finally cable hit 2.0202 with +92 pip.
  • #57,535
  • Mar 7, 2008 11:51pm Mar 7, 2008 11:51pm
Quoting TraderJR
Abuawad

Average 81 pips per day over the 11 days shown, a very satisfactory result. Your method must have improved over time, or you have got better at doing it? How much discretionary input is there in your method?

TIA
Thanks, you can say both I still learning new things from FF members and from any resources I can meet with. And any new method I have I shear it here with you all. I hope we can do the best for all of us…
  • #57,536
  • Mar 8, 2008 12:33am Mar 8, 2008 12:33am
Quoting Abuawad
And the scenario of trading yesterday as the following:
Cable test the up limit of the unknown area at 2.0110 “you can use the 1H or 4H chart for confirm the testing result the candle open above this value”. I place the long position at this point with SL 2.0055 and TP at 2.0178.
Before the price test the first target I notes the perfect butterfly pattern on the 30 min, aiming to 2.0195 as a target then I change the TP to the first resistant which is 2.0202 and the SL to 2.0095.
Cable test the target at 2.0178 and move in very strong uptrend. I change the SL to 2.0155 and keep the TP at 2.0202. finally cable hit 2.0202 with +92 pip.
Hmmm, looks like that's where the discretion/judgement comes in. Your numbers are interesting but it needs some rules as to how to apply which one and at what time. The numbers you provide don't give any hint of how to determine SL

thanks for sharing anyway
Darkness lies one inch ahead..
  • #57,537
  • Mar 8, 2008 12:36am Mar 8, 2008 12:36am
Quoting TraderJR
Hmmm, looks like that's where the discretion/judgement comes in. Your numbers are interesting but it needs some rules as to how to apply which one and at what time. The numbers you provide don't give any hint of how to determine SL

thanks for sharing anyway
....stop loss is the previews resistant or support line +15 pip

read my post cerfully
  • #57,538
  • Mar 8, 2008 12:48am Mar 8, 2008 12:48am
Good Day

i want to share my Computer Wallpaper
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: wall1.gif Size: 35 KB
  • #57,539
  • Mar 8, 2008 2:30am Mar 8, 2008 2:30am
Good Day

20 March - 21 March .... Holiday ... Thurday & Friday ... Market Closed
  • #57,540
  • Mar 8, 2008 3:53am Mar 8, 2008 3:53am
Quoting Abuawad
....stop loss is the previews resistant or support line +15 pip

read my post cerfully
oops, sorry

thanks
Darkness lies one inch ahead..
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