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  • #4,201
  • Feb 11, 2008 12:27am Feb 11, 2008 12:27am
EUR/USD is finally ready to push around 200-250 Pips down now.
  • #4,202
  • Feb 11, 2008 1:10am Feb 11, 2008 1:10am
Quoting jacobtrader
EUR/USD is finally ready to push around 200-250 Pips down now.
What are you basing this statement on? Really don't see much downside risk right now - but feel free to short and wait for the 200 pip drop.
  • #4,203
  • Feb 11, 2008 1:32am Feb 11, 2008 1:32am
Quoting Subdude
What are you basing this statement on? Really don't see much downside risk right now - but feel free to short and wait for the 200 pip drop.
I believe what he is trying to state is the 100 Hr SMA resistance line near 1.4570ish area. This may decide whether we will go down or a reversal upwards. European Open comming up in under 30 minutes, this should be interesting as it may decide whether the triple top is valid or another attempt of 1.5000 lies in the future.... Just added an additional Short at 1.4560 w/SL @ 1.4600.
"Don't work for your money, but let money work for you."
  • #4,204
  • Feb 11, 2008 1:38am Feb 11, 2008 1:38am
Quoting Subdude
What are you basing this statement on? Really don't see much downside risk right now - but feel free to short and wait for the 200 pip drop.

All i can say is just wait.. until the time i said We will se big drop..
I know why its going down..there r many factors..
it already fell around 30 Pips
And as i mentioned for GU also around 55 Pips fall there.
  • #4,205
  • Feb 11, 2008 1:39am Feb 11, 2008 1:39am
Quoting chady250
European Open comming up in under 30 minutes, this should be interesting as it may decide whether the triple top is valid or another attempt of 1.5000 lies in the future.... Just added an additional Short at 1.4560 w/SL @ 1.4600.
London open might take it down to 1.4535 or so, not much lower... good luck.
  • #4,206
  • Feb 11, 2008 6:21am Feb 11, 2008 6:21am
I would still recommend you to stay out of european currencies vs. dollar. Let the market tells us where its going. Right now hourlies are bullish and dailies are turning down. It's very risky to predict the euro now.
  • #4,207
  • Feb 11, 2008 6:24am Feb 11, 2008 6:24am
well u can short it for 20-50 pips,..i will hold my longs from 14466 til 14744, where i will take it all...my sl is still at 1.44375...i think it may end at 1.4777-14866, in 2 weeks time...lets see...
its just money
  • #4,208
  • Feb 11, 2008 7:01am Feb 11, 2008 7:01am
What are the factors against the EURO?

Potential slowdown due to US economy weakness is all you can leverage against the EURO, and perhaps over valuation against some currencies. Versus the dollar however, and indicated in article by Bank of America analyst and rate cuts the ECB needs to make will not be as harse as the ones already and forthcoming by the FED.

The bottom line, the comments out of G7 have Eurozone still facing real inflation risks, and the likelyhood is stable interest rates. They don't want to keep messing with rates; someone has to keep things stable so the difficulties can work themselves out.

Another key out of G7 that screws USD is the fact that the USA plan to get other nations to lower interest was declined. Sry FED other countries have thier own economies to tend to, not bailing out USD.

I think the decoupling of US from rest of world is very tangible. The same experts that were saying recession was not going to happen last summer, calling the US economy STRONG, are the same ones saying the decoupling won't happen.

We'll see.
  • #4,209
  • Feb 11, 2008 7:36am Feb 11, 2008 7:36am
Hah! From morning till now, managed to get 76 pips only. Think wanna retire already. Eyes drooping. Eurousd is just like a giant rollercoaster. Can smell the wind of long though. Good luck!
  • #4,210
  • Feb 11, 2008 12:22pm Feb 11, 2008 12:22pm
This week (11-15.02.08) possible either continuing trend toward consolidation of the dollar or some correction. The last week the pair EUR/USD has been in the «triangle» formation and still will be there some time. The GOLD has formed turn around formation «head & shoulders» and looks like this week its «neck line» will be broken, in this case the GOLD will drop up to 851$ and of course this will be in favor of a dollar.

The correction of the dollar is more possible then its growth starting Monday, but in the long term the dollar will continue growth, this is why who has long term positions to buy a dollar I suggest continue to keep them open.


http://forexmillion.com/images/GRAPH...urusd%20h4.gif


At the daily graph the pair is situated within a fixed range of “triangle” shape. Upon bouncing off its higher bound “M+” the descending 5th internal wave of the shape is developing now with the target 1.4420. If the higher bound “M+” will be broken, the pair will look forward to 1.5550 level. If the lower bound “M” will be broken, then to 1.3740. Dollar situation depends on the direction in which “triangle” shape will be broken.
http://forexmillion.com/images/GRAPH...urusd%20d1.gif

http://forexmillion.com/images/GRAPH...urusd%20w1.gif

taking from http://www.forexmillion.com
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  • #4,211
  • Feb 11, 2008 12:56pm Feb 11, 2008 12:56pm
Quoting jacobtrader
EUR/USD is finally ready to push around 200-250 Pips down now.
I think the opposite is true ...
  • #4,212
  • Feb 11, 2008 1:20pm Feb 11, 2008 1:20pm
If we can stay under 1.4510 to 1.4520 We may be able to test 1.4450 in the short run. 55 Hour EMA are closing in near 1.4535ish so this may act as secondary resistance if we go above. Hourly stochastics are slowly moving upwards while RSI seems to be crossing over 50 to the downside.
"Don't work for your money, but let money work for you."
  • #4,213
  • Feb 11, 2008 1:50pm Feb 11, 2008 1:50pm
lets not forget that eur/usd is carry trade...
its just money
  • #4,214
  • Feb 11, 2008 2:08pm Feb 11, 2008 2:08pm
I am keeping a close watch on Euro now. I'm long off the top of the last 4 hour spinner candle at 1.4507, but I might be jumping the gun here. It's good R:R so I'm ok with it.

However, if 1.4576 gets taken out that will be a 1-2-3 bottom reversal (higher low followed by a higher high). If this happens we could be in for a big ride up to 1.48 levels again. If S/L is below swing low at 1.4480 that's about 100 pip stop loss for potential 300 pips or so.
  • #4,215
  • Feb 11, 2008 4:08pm Feb 11, 2008 4:08pm
Quoting de123
lets not forget that eur/usd is carry trade...
Because of the 4/3% interest rate differential? Allow me to respectfully disagree here.
  • #4,216
  • Feb 11, 2008 4:59pm Feb 11, 2008 4:59pm
Beats losing pips while holding longs. Furthermore, I think he was joking.
  • #4,217
  • Feb 11, 2008 5:37pm Feb 11, 2008 5:37pm
Hmm interesting I wonder if the 55Hour EMA proved to be a resistance for this pair it may test 1.4480 to 1.4450 in the tokyo open.
"Don't work for your money, but let money work for you."
  • #4,218
  • Feb 11, 2008 7:10pm Feb 11, 2008 7:10pm
Quoting Betard
I am keeping a close watch on Euro now. I'm long off the top of the last 4 hour spinner candle at 1.4507, but I might be jumping the gun here. It's good R:R so I'm ok with it.

However, if 1.4576 gets taken out that will be a 1-2-3 bottom reversal (higher low followed by a higher high). If this happens we could be in for a big ride up to 1.48 levels again. If S/L is below swing low at 1.4480 that's about 100 pip stop loss for potential 300 pips or so.
Speaking about bottoms, there is a nice triple top on charts. and it would be really risk to play with eurusd now.

I will tell you something is not right with eurusd charts, It does look like making up big trap for bulls. I am not convinced it will go up until, and unless it goes to 1.46 levels.
  • #4,219
  • Feb 11, 2008 7:28pm Feb 11, 2008 7:28pm
It did go up, right to the 61.8% fib level... I was hoping for more, but oh well, take what you can get right?

Right now there's nothing here on the intra-day charts worth trading as far as I see. But if this retrace level turns out to be a decent support area we might see price action that makes it worth it... who knows, but it probably won't move much until London or NY opens.

We've got a double bottom/triple top forming, but it could just be part of a larger consolidation period following the uptrend we had till the end of last year. The last time it seems that the EURUSD was this high was back in 1995, when it reversed.
  • #4,220
  • Feb 11, 2008 7:43pm Feb 11, 2008 7:43pm
I am still here waiting long.

Besides the fundamental prospects of the eurozone vs. the US economy I find an interesting tidbit in the COT report for EURO Longs. The net longs actually decreased while the pair grinded away at higher levels than we see today. Suddenly, last week while I was out of the market the EURO finally sank on what appears to me to be "chatter" but no real evidence. A couple weaker than expected PPI reports in a collection of countries with much broader diversity than the USA, doesn't weigh too heavy with me. Nonetheless the EURUSD sank. According to one analyst at BofA he see this as the great reload before new highs. It could go lower to provide more room for such accumulation, but for now I wait. It will be a real hard decision to either suck it up and take the loss or add on a dip to 1.44, but I will cross that bridge if/when we come to it. AT 1.44 a long time ago, most of Europe was calling the Dollar overvalued, and that was before the USA economic collapse. Go figure.
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