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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #43,281
  • Dec 5, 2007 11:32pm Dec 5, 2007 11:32pm
here is a chart on h4.
i put 2 vertical lines: one on the current time, the other one on the last high.
look what happens with CCI and price at the first vertical line: price goes higher, CCI starts to decline. then CCI drops below 0, and price breaks the trendline. THIS IS HOW A REVERSAL SHOULD LOOK, in most cases.
now let's look at the current move: is there any divergence between CCI and price? no. is there any trendline that was broken? no. this points to only one conclusion: the downtrend is not over yet. don't go long unless you scalp some smaller timeframes.
this is what i see on h4 chart.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #43,282
  • Dec 5, 2007 11:33pm Dec 5, 2007 11:33pm
Quoting bcorsaut24
it was purely technical analysis (studying patterns in the market, and how the human psyche would respond to certain moves)...that support was incredibly strong, it held a few pivot points, trendlines, support levels, fib levels, etc....when that level got broken, people start to fear that the market will keep going down, so they all rush out at the same time...and thats how the drop happened.....a break through mega-support, led to a mega-drop in price...all based on fear of the market

i mean, ultimately we are the ones who move the market anyway, not the news (just how we react to it)
Hey bcorsaut,

I think we are in the same page here
  • #43,283
  • Dec 5, 2007 11:37pm Dec 5, 2007 11:37pm
it is not people that make the market. it is BIG GUYS, and they are not driven by fear and greed at all. "people" are only 3-5% of the forex market.
i hate to break it to you, but it is THEM that move the market (oh, and i forgot: regardless of any news).

Quoting bcorsaut24
it was purely technical analysis (studying patterns in the market, and how the human psyche would respond to certain moves)...that support was incredibly strong, it held a few pivot points, trendlines, support levels, fib levels, etc....when that level got broken, people start to fear that the market will keep going down, so they all rush out at the same time...and thats how the drop happened.....a break through mega-support, led to a mega-drop in price...all based on fear of the market

i mean, ultimately we are the ones who move the market anyway, not the news (just how we react to it)
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #43,284
  • Dec 5, 2007 11:39pm Dec 5, 2007 11:39pm
Quoting Scrat
it is not people that make the market. it is BIG GUYS, and they are not driven by fear and greed at all. "people" are only 3-5% of the forex market.
i hate to break it to you, but it is THEM that move the market (oh, and i forgot: regardless of any news).
not even a central bank can move the market by themselves, so who are these BIG people??
  • #43,285
  • Dec 5, 2007 11:44pm Dec 5, 2007 11:44pm
The BOE will most likely cut rates. Alan Greenspan admitted recently that the market decided when and how much to cut rates, not the Fed. I'm sure the BOE is the same. The market is 92% sure of a rate cut so I think that's almost in the bag. But even if for some reason they don't cut rates, I'll guarantee you they will signal a rate cut and a longer term dovish bias in their accompanying statement which will have almost the same effect as a rate cut anyway. Plus, the dollar is rallying with the dollar index finishing a long 5 waves down where bearish sentiment hit more than 92%, and the 5th wave bounced sharply off it's desending trend channel. The dollar is now in demand and will continue to rally for weeks or months, and the British economy is slowing so some adjustments to the GBP/USD rate must occur. There will probably be a correction in the short term to the upside as it's severely oversold right now, but the longer term trend is down I would only recommend finding short positions.

Check out my previous post from the other night and wave count. It may be a large A-B-C correction where it's completing wave C right now, but with the dollar showing a significant trend reversal, and the GBP/USD bouncing hard off that multi-week ascending trend channel, I'd say the GBP/USD has a long way down to go over the medium term.

Quoting I Wanna Trade
It should fall anytime now, and fall hard. It looks like it's going to begin wave 3 in a larger wave 3. This wave count, and the downside pressure, should hold as long as price is below 2.0843. Outside of the technicals you have a slowing UK economy and perhaps even a possible rate cut this week, but most likely a strong signal of a rate cut in the future, both should send the GBP reeling against the dollar. Plus, the sentiment against the dollar has been ridiculously one-sided and very very extreme and it appears that last week may have just marked the dollar bottom for now, and a sharp USD rally is waiting to explode. With the absence of significant data tomorrow and somewhat Wednesday, I'm not expecting much until Thursday, unless some news leaks out beforehand. I see any news benefiting the GBP/USD doing very little, but bad news for the GBP/USD will send the pair down sharply. The pressure is to the downside right now as long as price is under 2.0843 (top of large wave 2). With the heavy hitting news in the next 8 days, it should make for insane moves which is also in line with a large wave 3; and in this case, wave 3 is down!

The GBP will test 2.000 in the coming weeks.

-Todd
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #43,286
  • Dec 5, 2007 11:45pm Dec 5, 2007 11:45pm
Quoting AmeriTrini
not even a central bank can move the market by themselves, so who are these BIG people??
Me.. I have asked BOE to cut 25bps..now let's see if they listen to me..eh eh
  • #43,287
  • Dec 5, 2007 11:46pm Dec 5, 2007 11:46pm
back to the charts. h1 now.
there is a reverse bearish divergence going on. this means, the moment we see that trendline broken, another move down will begin. i put a fibo because i believe the next move will start from either 23.6/2.0348 or 38.2/2.0411 areas.
i do not advise on going long. too risky. wait for a short opportunity.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #43,288
  • Dec 5, 2007 11:52pm Dec 5, 2007 11:52pm
Interest rate will be remain the same.
Up cable Up!!
"Invest With The Insiders, Not The Masses" George Muzea
  • #43,289
  • Dec 5, 2007 11:54pm Dec 5, 2007 11:54pm
another thing see the trendline its already met with expectation to
for enough downside - target now UP!!!!!!!!!!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #43,290
  • Dec 6, 2007 12:14am Dec 6, 2007 12:14am
plus we have huge support from monthly trendline (april 2006)
  • #43,291
  • Dec 6, 2007 12:48am Dec 6, 2007 12:48am
61.8 is waiting take a look at this shot
  • #43,292
  • Dec 6, 2007 12:51am Dec 6, 2007 12:51am
down cable down!!
  • #43,293
  • Dec 6, 2007 12:58am Dec 6, 2007 12:58am
Quoting AmeriTrini
down cable down!!
Long..
"Invest With The Insiders, Not The Masses" George Muzea
  • #43,294
  • Dec 6, 2007 12:59am Dec 6, 2007 12:59am
Quoting AmeriTrini
down cable down!!
whats your analisess???? why down???????? still need to see direction

dont go for down lets wait!!!!!!!!!
  • #43,295
  • Dec 6, 2007 1:01am Dec 6, 2007 1:01am
see why went down.

a sharp euro selloff strenghtened usd and put some pressure on gbp,
gbp has been steady for some hours till now.
  • #43,296
  • Dec 6, 2007 1:04am Dec 6, 2007 1:04am
Cable won't go down anymore...
"Invest With The Insiders, Not The Masses" George Muzea
  • #43,297
  • Dec 6, 2007 1:08am Dec 6, 2007 1:08am
It's sitting at a VERY strong point of support right now, still testing it with no luck. Glad to see my guess at 350 and below came through yesterday :
  • #43,298
  • Dec 6, 2007 1:09am Dec 6, 2007 1:09am
Quoting Qu|cksilver
Cable won't go down anymore...
why, plz?
  • #43,299
  • Dec 6, 2007 1:10am Dec 6, 2007 1:10am
Quoting acidguy
i have not been so scared since some time ago trading a currency, this thing just got my nerves up...

i have a long position since 2.0316 since some hours ago, but nothing, the cable just keep bouncing since 2.0255 and 2.0295.

what do you think, the ones who are long... are you gonna stand in couple of hours more and exit before news if nothing happens?
some say, a rate cut has been partially priced cause the strong rumours about
BOE cutting rates.

but if BOE does not cut rates, some agree the currency is gonna spike up like crazy to 2.0600 at least.

any idea from a pro?????.
----- close your long, for a long trade price should retrace and break 2.0362
level. If you want to make money in forex never listen to rumors from people that are based on feelings and not what they see... cable will fly down today after the rate cut.. put an entry sell and buy order to be sure anyway.. do not trade before 2. GMT
  • #43,300
  • Dec 6, 2007 1:11am Dec 6, 2007 1:11am
Hey guys,

Been reading for a while, think I will finally post.

Im long from 265.

Reason - Head & Shoulders (already broken out), weekly mid point at 250 and daily mid point at 257, just got strong spiking action off 265-70 level

Looking for 350 area then maybe 450.

Stop at 215 but will be out way before that gets hit

Lets see what happens...
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