Cable Update (GBPUSD)

Quoting TheCable

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Hi,
ok I'm going to spend some time and try to explain what I'm waiting.
The whole market and economies are moving in cycles - short/middle/long term.The market is just a mirror of this.In the shadow of every month candle there are political and economical reasons etc..That's why I think Elliott is so good for the long term view - because his theory is that the price moves in waves up and down ..as the news from USA,Europe etc ..
Eur/usd is in the moment in the final 5th wave of the long term cycle.Typical for this wave is that it's possible for fundamental and technical analysis to show different directions.
The final 5th wave is "made" from other 2 cycles - short term and middle term.
This up move is the final 5th wave ( short term) which will finish the third wave from the middle term.That's why I expect a strong down move close to the top of the first move of the middle term move - which is at 1.29!
It's possible for the 4th wave to build a huge triangle or flat correction or something other,but the time will show.
I'm "sure" that we'll see at least 1.36 before December.
Next year will be the year of the trend reversal from the biggest timeframe.
With Bush ending his carrier as president of USA and the economy of Germany going slowly too hot I expect a reverse of the whole economical picture and of course the waves
5th wave could go even higher - it depends from the fundamental picture,but after this final 5th wave is finished 1.45-1.50 than comes the mother of all shorts - strong dollar and 1.16
That's how I see the whole picture.
Success !

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Quoting gmohata

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What you are saying makes complete sense - however (i feel) most traders here dont look at that large a time frame. Its a rule of economics - what goes up must come down. However how quickly or when cannot be predicted - if we look at the chart below - it has been going up for 6 years now - i guess the only thing which will make the dollar strong in the long run is a weak dollar in the short run - if you know what i mean. But yes - 2008 looks poised for a major trend reversal.

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Quoting Cope

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Lol. You never know, I've seen stranger things happen. But, it certainly was time for a bit of a correction.

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Pheeew... I got out on time from my GU longs...

Quoting bullrock

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Pheeew... I got out on time from my GU longs...

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Quoting ClockTrader

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now tell me like a good boy, where is the party tonight ?

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Quoting Scrat

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i agree with what you say, and i need to make 2 comments:
1: an EW pattern does not have to finish; it may also fail which means that price would go in the opposite direction - and fast. now i'm not talking about e-u, but in general. the problem is to identify the key areas where price might change its direction and keep an eye on what's going on over there.
2: in this particular case (e-u) at this very moment, it's not enough to just look at the technical picture because US economy is in a very delicate point. and until that is settled, one way or another, long term technical analysis is risky.

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Nothing like a good stretching before getting down to business

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Bullrock attempting another long cable long...

Quoting ClockTrader

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firstly, its a bear not bull, secondly how do you know BR trying another long ?

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Quoting MPP

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short on EU gives me a positive swap so i make out, it costs me to hold longs.

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